Posts Tagged ‘economic data’

Treasury Rally Continues in Normal Fashion; No Reason to be Short Treasuries

Treasury Rally Continues in Normal Fashion; No Reason to be Short Treasuries

Courtesy of Mish

In the wake of anemic retail sales in July, treasuries could have been expected to rally and they did.

Yield Curve as of 2008-08-13

Curve Watchers Anonymous notes that the biggest treasury gains (drops in yield), occurred on the longest durations. This is a normal yield curve reaction.

This is in contrast to the pattern we have been seeing for weeks, with the middle of the curve reacting the strongest.

Here is a chart over time from Front Running the Fed – Who Knew?

Once again the 7-year treasury is in the sweet spot.

click on chart for sharper image

Yield Curve May 2009 Thru Present

click on chart for sharper image

The 30-year long bond has finally broken through that shelf at the 4% mark. There is plenty of room for further rallies is the economic data remains weak. There is no reason to expect anything other than weakness, thus no reason to be short treasuries here.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


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DISAPPOINTING, DEFLATIONARY, DOUBLE DIP?

DISAPPOINTING, DEFLATIONARY, DOUBLE DIP?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

By Annaly Capital Management:

There was a heavy economic data schedule in the back half of this week.

On Thursday we got Industrial Production (IP) and Capacity Utilization (Cap-U) for June, along with Philly Fed Business Conditions and Empire State manufacturing surveys for July. The Empire State survey dropped to around 5 from near 20 in June, and Philly Fed dropped to 5.1 from 8, both of these well below expectations. Although IP and Cap-U have been steadily improving during the prior year, both stalled in June. Given the correlation between IP and the Philly Fed survey, shown below with Industrial Production lagged 6 months, we expect headwinds for the manufacturing-led recovery in coming months.

ann3 DISAPPOINTING, DEFLATIONARY, DOUBLE DIP?

It’s hard to imagine another plunge in Industrial Production like the one in 2008. Production is already back to levels first seen in 2000, a full decade with no advance in production, and inventories have already gone through the correction process (as evidenced by the sales/inventory ratio). But it seems obvious that recent growth rates are unsustainable, particularly in the absence of a real pickup in final sales.

This morning, consumer price data was released. The Consumer Price Index is rolling over, falling for 3 months in a row, and is now at roughly the same level as it was two years ago. The year-over-year growth rate looks to be heading back towards zero.

ann2 DISAPPOINTING, DEFLATIONARY, DOUBLE DIP?

Maybe the 10yr at 3% isn’t so rich after all.

Friday morning also brought fresh weekly ECRI leading index data. The debate about a “double-dip” recession has been deafening, but according to this index, we seem to already be in back-to-back recessions that are worse than the 1980/1982 experience.

ann1 DISAPPOINTING, DEFLATIONARY, DOUBLE DIP?

(ECRI Weekly Leading Indicator)

The ECRI data series only includes just over 40 years of data, the blink of an economic eye, but the recent behavior of this leading index is disconcerting.

We’re still early in earnings season, but several big banks reported earnings before the market open on Friday. Citigroup posted earnings of $2.7 billion (which contained $1.5 billion of loan loss reserve release, and around a $1 billion of positive asset markups) and Bank of America came in at $3.1 billion (including about a $1.1 billion pretax gain from asset sales, a $1.2 billion pretax gain related to Merrill Lynch structured notes, and…
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Lagging GDP Confirms Consumer Slowdown

Lagging GDP Confirms Consumer Slowdown
The Information that was Missing from Last Friday’s GDP Report

[See also my interview with Rick, here. And more on Rick's data, here. - Ilene]

Courtesy of Richard Davis of the Consumer Metrics Institute, Inc.

The April 30th GDP report issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis ("BEA") of the U. S. Department of Commerce was a freeze-frame quarterly snapshot of a highly dynamic economy — an economy that another source indicates was in significant transition while the snapshot was being taken.

Compared to the 4th quarter of 2009, the annualized growth rate of the GDP had dropped by 43%. Depending on your point of view this could be interpreted either as a glass that is "half-full" or a glass that is "half-empty":

1) The "half-full" reading would mean that the GDP numbers confirm that the recovery had at least moderated to a historically normal growth rate. In this scenario the good news would have been that "the economy is still growing," albeit at a historically normal rate. The bad news would have been that a normal growth rate would only warrant normal P/E ratios in the equity
markets.

2) The "half-empty" reading would have meant that the near halving of the GDP’s growth rate confirmed that (at the factory level) the economy had finally begun to "roll over". If so, the BEA’s announcement portends even lower readings in the quarters to follow.

What was clearly missing in the "half-full/half-empty" debate was a feel for whether the level seen in the snapshot’s glass was stable or still dropping. At the Consumer Metrics Institute our measurements of the web-based consumer "demand" side economy support the "half-empty" reading of the new GDP data. The new GDP numbers (which are subject to at least two revisions) agree with where our "Daily Growth Index" was on November 24th, 2009, 18 weeks prior to the end of 2010′s first calendar quarter — and when that index was in precipitous decline.

Our indexes capture consumer activities in the "demand" side of the economy by mining consumer internet tracking data on a daily basis. This consumer "demand" flows downstream economically to the "supply" side factories over the following 18 weeks:

http://www.consumerindexes.com/commentary_2010_dailygrowthindexvsgdp_full.gif

A look at our "Daily Growth Index" also shows that towards the end of November 2009 the "demand" side economic activity was dropping so quickly that a two week change in the sampling period would make a huge difference in the numbers being reported. If the sampling period had…
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JP MORGAN: THE RECOVERY IS ABOUT TO BECOME SELF SUSTAINING

JP MORGAN: THE RECOVERY IS ABOUT TO BECOME SELF SUSTAINING

Bear and bull market collage

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Few firms have been as bullish about the recovery as JP Morgan.  And unfortunately for the bears, few firms have had it more spot on at every twist and turn.  Their bullishness is only picking up momentum.  Strategists at America’s second largest bank say the economy is much stronger than many presume and the recovery is about to become self sustaining:

“We believe that the global economy is making an important transition to self sustaining growth as the first quarter comes to an end. As part of this shift, GDP growth is re-accelerating following a modest downshift at the turn of the year. However, it is the significant broadening in G-3 demand, rather than the pickup in top-line growth, that will be the key marker for this transition.

We are becoming more bullish on economic growth, both in terms of how fast economies will grow and in terms of confidence that it will actually happen. Activity data across much of the world have surprised on the upside in recent weeks. Most important is that they
are showing greater breadth across regions, sectors, and types of spending.”

JP Morgan says the risks to economic growth lie to the upside as the recovery broadens, jobs growth improves and confidence accelerates.  Based on this, they believe the equity rally should continue into April.  They foresee a strong earnings season supporting prices:

“The equity rally should extend into next month, on stronger economic data and the start of the 1Q reporting season, from which we expect good news. The 4Q US reporting season posted a 7% upside surprise: The final operating S&P 500 EPS was 7% above the expectation at the start of the reporting season. Quarterly earnings surprises tend to exhibit strong serial correlation, repeating 82% of the time. This points to another positive surprise in the 1Q reporting season.”

Source: JPM 


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Contraction Tracked by the Consumer Metrics Institute Traces Unique Pattern

Three women shoppers

This is fascinating data that Phil brought to my attention. Richard Davis, President of the Consumer Metrics Institute, measures real-time consumer transactions as an objective indicator of consumer demand and associated economic health.

As Richard explains,

We simply report what consumers have been doing on a day by day basis by mining on-line U.S. consumer tracking data for purchases of discretionary durable goods. We only look for discretionary durable goods transactions because we believe the discretionary durable goods segment of the consumer economy is the most volatile and stimulative portion of the economy. Consequently, we are not capturing grocery or gasoline purchases; but we are, for example, collecting automotive and housing purchases. We divide the captured transactions daily into the following sectors of the consumer economy: automotive, entertainment, financial, health, household, housing, recreation, retail, technology and travel.

Additionally, we are aware that our sampling process may have some biases built into it because it uses the internet as the collection tool. For that reason, our consumers may have a different socioeconomic profile than the average American consumer. We are also collecting only U.S. originated transactions conducted in English. That said, however, we feel that our data does fairly represent the most variable parts of the consumer economy.

Because conclusions are only as accurate as the data from which they are drawn (but may be far less accurate), this approach is particularly intriguing. It is refreshingly free of government processing and alterations, such as confusing seasonal adjustments. Richard also wrote, concerning what his data is saying to him now:

We are not professional doom-sayers. We were incredibly upbeat one year ago — when most economic indicators were preaching doom and gloom. Since August, however, consumers have been pulling in their spending, and our numbers have slowly turned upside down. From our perspective on the demand side of the economy, a contraction is already here, having started officially in the middle of January. The only question now is whether the 2010 contraction will revisit 2006 or 2008? Our daily updates will ultimately tell the story.

Coincidentally, Richard is going to be speaking with Larry Doyle from
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THOUGHTS ON THIS MORNING’S DATA

THOUGHTS ON THIS MORNING’S DATA 

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

More signs of economic stability this morning, though signs of real sustainable growth remain in doubt. Existing home sales were in-line with expectations at 5M.  This was flat compared to last month and in-line with the overall trend of the last year. Demand for existing homes remains surprisingly tepid despite the soon expiring tax credit for new buyers.  Supply in the housing market continues to build and increased to 8.6 months vs January’s reading of 7.8.  While the stability is a good sign, the increasing supply is a negative.   The sustainability of the housing recovery is in very real jeopardy.

showimage.asp 6 THOUGHTS ON THIS MORNINGS DATA

In related news, KB Homes reported a larger than expected loss, but said they are seeing some stability in the housing market.  Overall, however, it remains too early to call this a recovery:

“The operating environment for the homebuilding industry is better today than last year at this time,” said Jeffrey Mezger, president and chief executive officer. “Encouraging data in recent months suggest that a number of housing markets may be stabilizing or starting to rebound, though we do not yet see, in many respects, a sustained nationwide recovery. While the pace is likely to be uneven in the months ahead, we currently expect housing market conditions to follow a generally positive trajectory throughout this year and into 2011.”

Retail sales were again strong this morning according to Rebook and ICSC.  Part of this is due to seasonal strength and the early Easter pulling sales up a week early, but the consumer has definitely been more eager to spend some money in recent months.   Whether or not this is a good thing remains debatable, but the market seems to like it for now as stocks remain buoyant following the news.

rets3 THOUGHTS ON THIS MORNINGS DATA 


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Statistical Color

Statistical Color

Courtesy of Michael Panzner at Financial Armageddon 

Eye with rainbow

Although I’m not an economist, I spend a lot of time trying to figure out which way the economic winds are blowing. For a country as large, diverse, and globally connected as the United States, it can be quite challenging deciding which trends and data points are relevant at any given point in time, and which are extraneous, untimely, incomplete, or misleading. It doesn’t help, of course, that many so-called experts in Washington and on Wall Street (along with their enablers in the media) are happy to dissemble and distort instead of presenting the pertinent numbers along with a straightforward interpretation of what they mean. But even when the data is unencumbered by spin, it helps to understand its shortcomings and limitations. Below are four reports that provide some additional color on the statistics that many analysts are keying in on nowadays.

"Economic Data Can Be Misleading" (Financial Times)

High angle view of a teacup on a newspaper

Headline-grabbing data releases might be painting a rosy picture of the US economy at the moment – but it would be wise to keep an eye on what other, less-scrutinised surveys are showing, says Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING.

For example, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index still works as a bellwether for the US economy – but only for a section of it, he says. “Nearly half of US private sector employees work for small firms of 50 people or less, or are self-employed – and you can bet that most national surveys save time and effort by sampling mainly large companies.”

“Right now, the ISM index is consistent with GDP growth rates of about 4.5 per cent. The headline survey from the National Federation of Independent Businesses, whose members typically have less than 50 workers, is consistent with a contraction of about 1 per cent.”

Neither is actually “wrong”, Mr Carnell says. “We just have to be aware that they are describing different parts of the US economy, and that the aggregate picture is somewhere in between.”

Relying too heavily on one survey carries risks, he said. “Strategists who assumed the rise in the ISM in 2002 and 2003 would result in a surge in Treasury yields to 8 per cent got it badly wrong,” he notes. “Size really does


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SCHWARZMAN SEES “MORE THAN GREEN SHOOTS”, JP MORGAN TROUNCES ESTIMATES

SCHWARZMAN SEES “MORE THAN GREEN SHOOTS”, JP MORGAN TROUNCES ESTIMATES

green light - freefotoCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Steve Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone said Wednesday he was seeing “more than green shoots” for the economic rebound.  He sees the deal market coming back to life and a return to the good old days of leveraged loans, toxic assets and IPO’s where you sell your company to the public at the most insane valuation of all time (sarcasm intended).  Despite this his optimism remained somewhat muted:

“We do not expect the U.S. economy to slip back into recession but we do believe that weak consumer spending and continued constraints on bank lending will dampen the U.S. economic recovery in 2010 and 2011.”

On the earnings front, JP Morgan confirmed what we have believed for a long time – the banks are juicing.  The company trounced analysts expectations by 30 cents and reported a 79% jump in revenues.  JP Morgan actually lost money on the lending side of their business as well as their card services segment (the consumer is still very weak), but they made up for it in their trading and investment banking where they are helping to shower the market with secondary offerings and trading this Fed induced liquidity rally to new highs.  A look under the hood questions the sustainability of these earnings.  After all, banks are in the business of lending money:

Consumer Lending reported a net loss of $1.0 billion, compared with a net loss of $659 million in the prior year and $955 million in the prior quarter. Compared with the prior quarter, results decreased by $81 million, reflecting a decrease in mortgage production revenue, an increase in the provision for credit losses and lower loan balances, largely offset by higher MSR risk management results and wider loan spreads.

Net revenue was $7.5 billion, an increase of $3.4 billion, or 85%, from the prior year. Investment banking fees were up 4% to $1.7 billion, consisting of equity underwriting fees of $681 million (up 31%), debt underwriting fees of $593 million (up 19%) and advisory fees of $384 million (down 33%). Fixed Income Markets revenue was $5.0 billion, up by $4.2 billion, reflecting strong results across most products and gains of approximately $400 million on legacy leveraged lending and mortgage-related positions, compared with markdowns of $3.6 billion in the prior


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THOUGHTS ON THIS MORNING’S DATA

THOUGHTS ON THIS MORNING’S DATA

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Earnings aren’t the only thing driving the market higher this morning – better than expected economic data is also giving a lift to stocks.  Jobless claims came in at 521K which was better than the 540K analysts expected.  Continuing claims also declined to 6.04MM – this is a good sign for future hiring.

The more important news of the day was chain store sales which rhymed with the ICSC data that showed improvement in recent reports.  Overall, the sales remain sluggish, but were better than anticipated. Target reported a 1.7% decline, Nordstrom reported a 2.4% decline, Neiman Marcus reported a 17% decline, Kohls reported a 5.5% increase, JC Penney reported a 1.4% decline and CostCo reported a 3% increase.  All in all, the numbers are decent, but comps to last year were very easy.  Econoday reports:

Chain stores posted very strong results in September pointing to a significant month-to-month increase for the non-auto non-gas category of next Wednesday’s retail sales report from the Commerce Department. This year’s shift of the Labor Day weekend deeper into September helped the month’s results with year-ago comparisons especially helped by last year’s hurricanes, Ike and Gustav, not to mention the turmoil following the Lehman Brothers collapse. Chains did report weakness in home furnishings, perhaps a hint of trouble for the building materials component. Still, today’s reports are very positive though strength in non-auto non-gas sales is not likely to offset the post-clunker plunge in vehicle sales. But vehicles aside, the consumer, despite weak confidence and job troubles, is showing some spark.

Are we on the verge of a consumer rebound?  Michael P. Niemira thinks so:

“Let the retail recovery begin,” said Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at International Council of Shopping Centers. “This is the start of a better performance and better fundamentals.”

Unfortunately, one month a trend does not make.  The recent data on consumer credit and auto sales tells a drastically different story….

 


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The Elements of Deflation

The Elements of Deflation

dna, complexity, economic complexityCourtesy of John Mauldin at Thoughts From The Frontline

The Elements of Deflation
The Failure of Economics
The Super Trend Puzzle
Final Demand and Income
Unemployment Was NOT a Green Shoot

As every school child knows, water is formed by the two elements of hydrogen and oxygen in a very simple formula we all know as H2O. Today we start a series that starts with the question, What are the elements that comprise deflation? Far from being simple, the "equation" for deflation is as complex as that of DNA. And sadly, while the genome project has helped us with great insights into how DNA works, economic analysis is still back in the 1950s when it comes to decoding deflation. Notwithstanding the paucity of understanding we can glean from the dismal science, in this week’s letter we will start thinking about the most fundamentally important question of the day: is inflation, or deflation, in our future?

But quickly, I want to thank the many people who wrote very kind words about last week’s letter. Many thought it was one of the better letters I have done in a long time. If you did not read it, you can read it here. And of course, you can go there and sign up to get this letter sent to you each week for free. Why not become of my 1 million (plus and growing) closest friends?

The Failure of Economics

Paul KrugmanAmong the economists and writers I regularly read, there are some who, if they agree with me, I go back and check my assumptions – I must have been wrong. Paul Krugman is one of those thinkers. I admit to his brilliance, but his left-leaning philosophy does not particularly square with mine, and I find that most of the time I disagree.

That being said, I strongly encourage you to read his essay in the New York Times Magazine, which comes out this weekend. It is worth the high price of the Times to read it, if you can’t get it online. It is a very hard critique and analysis of the failure of current macro and financial economic thought, which didn’t even come close to predicting the current financial malaise. Indeed, as he points out, most schools of thought said the state we…
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Phil's Favorites

What Selloff?

 

What Selloff?

Courtesy of , at The Reformed Broker, originally posted on January 25, 22

Retail traders panicked yesterday. Not all, obviously, but they dumped their shares as a group. Here’s Bloomberg:

In a spasm of panicked selling early Monday, retail investors offloaded a net $1.36 billion worth of stock by noon, most of it in the first hour, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Peng Cheng. By his estimate, s...



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Politics

It's just a 'panic attack' - Russian media blames US for escalating Ukraine crisis

 

It’s just a ‘panic attack’ – Russian media blames US for escalating Ukraine crisis

A live broadcast of Russian President Vladimir Putin speaking is shown on Dec. 23, 2021, from a media control room in Russia. Eric Romanenko/TASS via Getty Images

Courtesy of Cynthia Hooper, College of the Holy Cross

As Western news outlets warn of a “countdow...



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ValueWalk

Bitcoin's Major Topping Pattern is Now Complete

By Louis Navellier. Originally published at ValueWalk.

For weekend reading, Louis Navellier offers the following commentary:

Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

A Head And Shoulders Top For Bitcoin

Two months ago, I saw a euphoric climax in bitcoin, which I didn’t like. The futures ETF had just launched, and they were running those commercials starring Matt Damon on CNBC for crypto.com invoking Fortuna,...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Lumber Price Peak Would Raise Concerns For Equities!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The supply chain has dealt with several issues over the past couple of years, as consumers and businesses have been forced to navigate a tricky “COVID” landscape.

Commodity prices (in general) have risen, while enduring some big swings.

Today we look at a commodity that plays an intricate role for consumers, and perhaps the equities market as well. Lumber. When lumber prices are high, new homes and buildings cost quite a bit more.

Above is a “weekly” chart of lumber prices. As you can see, there have been times when a lumber peak/bottom have be...



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Zero Hedge

Canadian 'Freedom Convoy' Receives First GoFundMe Payment After Temporary Halt

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (Friday 0711ET): Organizers of the "Freedom Convoy" have "received confirmation that GoFundMe has released our first batch of funds" following reports Thursday, the c...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Is the omicron variant Mother Nature's way of vaccinating the masses and curbing the pandemic?

 

Is the omicron variant Mother Nature’s way of vaccinating the masses and curbing the pandemic?

Preliminary research suggests that the omicron variant may potentially induce a robust immune response. Olga Siletskaya/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Prakash Nagarkatti, University of South Carolina and Mitzi Nagarkatti, University of South Carolina

In the short time since...



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Digital Currencies

Why do you need a Bitcoin ETF when they already made you one?

 

Why do you need a Bitcoin ETF when they already made you one?

Courtesy of 

Chart via Piper Sandler’s new note on Coinbase. They don’t think it’s trading as a proxy for Bitcoin but I know it is. Here’s their take:

COIN shares have performed in-line with bitcoin since reaching an all-time closing high on 11/9/21. COIN shares and the price of bitcoin (which we use as a proxy for broader cryptocurrency pric...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Swings Down to Support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Come on! Seriously do you think a 400% rally for Bitcoin was going to be given to the public easily. Without any pain! Come on muppets!



The uniformed (public) buy when price is rising or breaking new highs, the informed buy when price is falling or breaking lows.



The informed have to do it this way as they are large volume players and the only way they can buy large volume is to create chaos. The chaos brings to the market the weak holders and a forced sell. Price is moved to where the volume can be accumulated, in a bull trend that is down to critical support.



Of course if price is in a true bull market the 'chaos' created should not break critical long term trend signals, ...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.