Posts Tagged ‘economic weakness’

Durable Goods Orders Downside Surprise; Details Range from Weak to Abysmal

Durable Goods Orders Downside Surprise; Details Range from Weak to Abysmal

Stethoscope on Indian banknotes of different denominations Horizontal

Courtesy of Mish

Spending on durable goods rose slightly in July but only on the back of an unsustainable spike in aircraft orders. The rest of the data ranged from weak to abysmal.

As has been the case recently, economists missed the mark by a mile. Economists expected a 3% rise, what they got was a .3% rise.

The Washington Post discusses the situation in Durable goods orders disappoint in latest sign of economic weakness

Overall, orders for durable goods rose 0.3 percent, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, well below the 3 percent that analysts had expected. But even that slight rise was driven by a spike in aircraft orders, a volatile category. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 3.8 percent.

Most worrisome, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 8 percent. That indicator tends to predict future equipment spending by businesses, Business spending on equipment and software rose at more than a 20 percent annual rate in the first half of 2010, one of the bright spots in the economic picture; the new data suggest that such spending may not be as strong in the second half of the year.

Detail Digging 

Inquiring minds are digging a bit deeper into the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders July 2010.

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $193.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase followed two consecutive monthly decreases including a 0.1 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 3.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.3 percent.

Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, had the largest increase, $6.1 billion or 13.1 percent to $52.6 billion. This was due to nondefense aircraft and parts, which increased $4.0 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in July, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $1.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $802.8 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent June increase. Computers and electronic products, down following four consecutive monthly increases, had the largest decrease, $0.5 billion or 0.4 percent to $121.1 billion.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in July, up seven consecutive months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $311.2 billion. This followed a 1.3 percent June increase. Machinery, up


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ROSENBERG: THERE WAS NEVER A RECOVERY

ROSENBERG: THERE WAS NEVER A RECOVERY

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

David Rosenberg elaborates on just how weak the actual recovery was and why we’re likely to continue seeing economic weakness:

Source: Fox Business

 


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NEW INDICATOR IS POINTING TO RENEWED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS

NEW INDICATOR IS POINTING TO RENEWED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Interesting stuff here from Econbrowser and Professor James Hamilton on a new indicator created by Goldman’s Jan Hatzius and several others.  The indicator is deteriorating substantially in recent months and could be pointing to further economic weakness.  This indicator appears to have a fairly good track record in leading past downturns: 

 FCI NEW INDICATOR IS POINTING TO RENEWED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS

Read more about this interesting new indicator at EconBrowser and at the Chicago School’s website.


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Zero Hedge

Here's What NatGas Bulls Are Betting On In The Next Month

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Weather models continue to suggest warmer than average temperatures this month across much of the US from the South to the Northeast. Warmer trends could continue next month, pressuring natural gas prices as demand crumbles. However, natgas bulls are closely watching the Polar Vortex and Madden Julian Oscillation for any shifts. 

Kirk Hinz, meteorologist in charge at US-based ...



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Phil's Favorites

The Stock Market and Crypto Market Are The Ultimate Platform and Game

 

The Stock Market and Crypto Market Are The Ultimate Platform and Game

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

When I was a kid I played ‘Pong’ and ‘Space Invaders’ and Coleco Football and Mattel ‘Intellivision’.

In college I stopped.

Maybe if there were smartphones and no women, I would still be a ‘gamer’, but my generation was looking up not down.

I found the markets because I needed a first job and I was hooked.

It has been a battle of wits and behavior since. The markets have brought me to panic and fear on many occasions but most...



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ValueWalk

Aviation Lawsuit Filed Against Boeing Regarding Hard Landing in Turkey

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

(Chicago IL, January 21, 2021) Today, lawyers representing victims of Pegasus Flight 2193, announced that a lawsuit was filed against The Boeing Company and the aircraft owner. The lawsuit asserts claims of Negligence, Product Liability, and Breach of Warranty regarding a Boeing aircraft that crashed in Istanbul, Turkey.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Hard Landing Of Pegasus Flight 2193

On February 5, 2020, a commercial flight operated by Pegasus Airlines was scheduled to depart from Izmir Adnan Menderes Airport and arrive in Istanbul-Sabiha Gökçen ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

A Repeat Of The 2000 Dot.com Highs In Play?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Since the 2000 tech bubble and crash, tech stocks have regained their leadership form. Especially large-cap tech stocks.

Headlines have varied in focus from the “4 horseman” to “FANG” and “FANGE”, but one thing remains: Large-cap tech stocks have been the bull market leader.

So what about when large-cap tech lags the market? Not so good.

In today’s chart, we look at a “monthly” chart of the performance ratio of the Nasdaq 100 Index to the Nasdaq Composite. It’s basically a look at how large-cap tech stocks perform against the broader tech stocks world.

As you ca...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 05:26:16 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This is lack of liquidity means support is likely to break if it is tested hard!



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 09:51:58 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Nasdaq losing momentum.



Da...

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Politics

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

 

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

Rioters mass on the U.S. Capitol steps on Jan. 6. Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeff Inglis, The Conversation

In the wake of the insurrection on Jan. 6, the U.S. is bracing for the possibility of additional violent demonstrations and potential riots at the U.S. Capitol and state capitol buildings around the nation. W...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

 

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

By mid-January, only about a quarter of the COVID-19 vaccines distributed for U.S. nursing homes through the federal program had reached people’s arms. Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

Courtesy of Tinglong Dai, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing

The urgency of vaccinating nursing home residents is evident in the numbers. The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed the lives of mo...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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