Posts Tagged ‘economic weakness’

Durable Goods Orders Downside Surprise; Details Range from Weak to Abysmal

Durable Goods Orders Downside Surprise; Details Range from Weak to Abysmal

Stethoscope on Indian banknotes of different denominations Horizontal

Courtesy of Mish

Spending on durable goods rose slightly in July but only on the back of an unsustainable spike in aircraft orders. The rest of the data ranged from weak to abysmal.

As has been the case recently, economists missed the mark by a mile. Economists expected a 3% rise, what they got was a .3% rise.

The Washington Post discusses the situation in Durable goods orders disappoint in latest sign of economic weakness

Overall, orders for durable goods rose 0.3 percent, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, well below the 3 percent that analysts had expected. But even that slight rise was driven by a spike in aircraft orders, a volatile category. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 3.8 percent.

Most worrisome, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 8 percent. That indicator tends to predict future equipment spending by businesses, Business spending on equipment and software rose at more than a 20 percent annual rate in the first half of 2010, one of the bright spots in the economic picture; the new data suggest that such spending may not be as strong in the second half of the year.

Detail Digging 

Inquiring minds are digging a bit deeper into the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders July 2010.

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $193.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase followed two consecutive monthly decreases including a 0.1 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 3.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.3 percent.

Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, had the largest increase, $6.1 billion or 13.1 percent to $52.6 billion. This was due to nondefense aircraft and parts, which increased $4.0 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in July, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $1.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $802.8 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent June increase. Computers and electronic products, down following four consecutive monthly increases, had the largest decrease, $0.5 billion or 0.4 percent to $121.1 billion.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in July, up seven consecutive months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $311.2 billion. This followed a 1.3 percent June increase. Machinery, up


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , ,




ROSENBERG: THERE WAS NEVER A RECOVERY

ROSENBERG: THERE WAS NEVER A RECOVERY

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

David Rosenberg elaborates on just how weak the actual recovery was and why we’re likely to continue seeing economic weakness:

Source: Fox Business

 


Tags: , , , ,




NEW INDICATOR IS POINTING TO RENEWED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS

NEW INDICATOR IS POINTING TO RENEWED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Interesting stuff here from Econbrowser and Professor James Hamilton on a new indicator created by Goldman’s Jan Hatzius and several others.  The indicator is deteriorating substantially in recent months and could be pointing to further economic weakness.  This indicator appears to have a fairly good track record in leading past downturns: 

 FCI NEW INDICATOR IS POINTING TO RENEWED ECONOMIC WEAKNESS

Read more about this interesting new indicator at EconBrowser and at the Chicago School’s website.


Tags: ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Momentum Monday - Growth Stocks Have COVID and Ivanhoff Lived

 

Momentum Monday – Growth Stocks Have COVID and Ivanhoff Lived

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

Happy ‘markets closed’ Monday as we pay respects to Martin Luther King Jr.

Last week Ivanhoff had COVID, but the young scrappy man beat it.

We cannot say the same things about growth stocks which continue to struggle from the financial cocktail aftermath of it.

Here is this week’s episode of Momentum Monday. You can watch/listen right here or I have embedded it on my blog below:

Here a I...



more from Ilene

ValueWalk

Trillium Gold Mines (TSXV:TGM): How This Gold Company Might Hedge your Inflation Risk

By Adam Torkildson. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Investors are concerned about inflation and justifiably so. Consumer prices spiked in 2021 to levels not seen in decades in the U.S. and Canada; in fact, for most global economies, 2021 marked a sharp break from what has been an unusually long period of low-to-moderate inflation. Are we headed for a repeat of the 1970s when inflation reached double digits? If your investment does not generate sufficient returns to beat inflation, one thing is certain – inflation can erode the value of your portfolio, even if you maintain positive returns year-over-year. Many younger investors have never faced this invisible drain on their purchasing power.

Historically, gold as an asset class has proved its worth time and time again as an effective hedge against inflation and econ...



more from ValueWalk

Politics

What Supreme Court's block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

 

What Supreme Court’s block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

New York City’s vaccine mandates are unaffected by the court ruling. AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

Courtesy of Debbie Kaminer, Baruch College, CUNY

The U.S. Supreme Court on Jan. 13, 2022, blocke...



more from Politics

Zero Hedge

Ghislaine Maxwell Will No Longer Fight To Keep Epstein 'John Does' Secret; Suspected Of 'Intimate Relationship' With Prince Andrew

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Convicted sex offender and UK socialite Ghislaine Maxwell will no longer appose keeping "vast swaths of information" about her "sex trafficking operation" with Jeffrey Epstein sealed, after accuser Virginia Roberts Giuffre requested they be made public, according to the Daily Mail.

One of Maxwell's lawyer stated in a letter to federal judge Loretta Preska last week that the defense team will no l...



more from Tyler

Chart School

US Dollar Short Term Cycle Peak Near - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The short term US Dollar cycle peak is upon us, it is time for capital flows to rule the direction of the DXY.



Previous Post: US Dollar Short Term Cycle Peak Near



Capital flows and interest rate differentials move currency around.



If capital flows take over, then they DXY is going into the 80's at least. Of course hiking rates 4 times is easier on the world when the DXY is near 80 rather than 95. A lot if US debt held by emerging markets is at risk otherwise. And yes a lower US dollar in early 2022 helps China out, as it suppo...



more from Chart School

Biotech/COVID-19

What Supreme Court's block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

 

What Supreme Court’s block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

New York City’s vaccine mandates are unaffected by the court ruling. AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

Courtesy of Debbie Kaminer, Baruch College, CUNY

The U.S. Supreme Court on Jan. 13, 2022, blocke...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Digital Currencies

The metaverse is money and crypto is king - why you'll be on a blockchain when you're hopping

 

The metaverse is money and crypto is king – why you’ll be on a blockchain when you’re virtual-world hopping

In the metaverse, your avatar, the clothes it wears and the things it carries belong to you thanks to blockchain. Duncan Rawlinson - Duncan.co/Flickr, CC BY-NC

Courtesy of Rabindra Ratan, Michigan State University and Dar Meshi, Michigan State University ...



more from Bitcoin

Kimble Charting Solutions

Inflation About To Blast Off or Is The Peak In Play?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Current data suggests that inflation has been in our everyday lives for several months. And today’s Producer Price Index data was pretty ugly.

BUT… could inflation be peaking?

Today’s chart 2-pack offers a glimpse of why inflation could subside over the near-term.

Here we look at the “monthly” chart of the US Dollar and Euro currencies. It’s pretty easy to see the rising trend channel for the US Dollar and falling trend channel for the Euro. As well, both currencies have formed a wedge pattern, with the US Dollar testing resistance and the Euro testing support.

Shou...



more from Kimble C.S.

Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



more from Promotions

Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



more from M.T.M.

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.