Posts Tagged ‘Elliott Wave analysis’

Monthly Trade Set-Up

Monthly Trade Set-Up

Courtesy of Allan

Below is a monthly chart of the DJIA with the Monthly Trend Model and Elliott Wave analysis courtesy of Advanced GET:

 Advanced GET Mechanical SELL SIGNAL requirements [these four have already been met]: 

(1) Measured 4th wave;
(2) Oscillator back to zero line (bottom study);
(3) False bar stochastic Sell Signal;
(4) Break of trend regression channels.

What is missing, so far, is the Trend Model Sell Signal. But on a Monthly chart, this will always be a lagging indicator with way too much lag to be of any worth in trading. We have seen in the last two monthly bars how that Monthly Trend Line has attracted prices, but repelled them both times. Will the next time finally break the back of this last remaining vestige of the 2009 bull market?

I find it fascinating how this particular trade set up works on all time frames. I used it last week on an hourly chart that I sent out to subscribers that just nailed a mid-day reversal. Here today, we see how it applies to a much larger time frame. I have been using this trade set-up since 1995 and it works just as well now as it did the 20th Century. For our purposes, giving us an edge for the next few months will have to do.

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Here’s Allan’s weekly chart which helps illustrate his point: the weekly chart has already signaled a sell; it takes longer for the monthly charts to change courses compared to the weekly charts. – Ilene 

Allan’s “Trend Following Trading Model” is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.


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That Was About As Fun As….

In reading Binve’s market update, keep in mind he’s bearish and short the market, so a good move in his eyes is down. See Binve’s previous Elliott Wave analysis here. - Ilene

That Was About As Fun As….

ouch!Courtesy of Binve at Market Thoughts and Analysis

(insert hard object hitting sensitive area joke here)

Here is my current count. The day sucked but was not as bad as it could have been, closing below the 1081 resistance. Good. It was not a bullish runaway. And divergence was showing up the last hour. Also good.

So there are two likely, basic options: triple zigzag or A-B-C with a big triangle.

Both yield similar targets based on Fib ratios. The lower target (which was met and where we consolidated at) was 1076-1078. The next target is 1084-1087. That is now where I think the move is likely to hit tomorrow.

But no matter what happens, we better close well below 1081 tomorrow (below 1060 would be lovely) otherwise we are set up to have a very bullish week next week.

[click on chart to enlarge]


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Germany’s DAX: Insight Into Europe’s Leading Economy

Note: Our friends at Elliott Wave International have announced the beginning of their "FreeWeek event, where they throw open the doors to some of their most popular paid services to non-subscribers for one week." This time, they’re offering complete access to The Asian-Pacific Short Term Update and The European Short Term Update. – Ilene

FreeWeek Kicks Off With Germany:  Click HERE to sign on and get invaluable insight into Europe’s #1 market.

Germany’s DAX: FREE Insight Into Europe’s Leading Economy

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International

It’s one of the first rules in the book of mainstream economic wisdom: a country’s economy is the thermometer which "reads" its stock market’s temperature. If financial conditions are heating up, stocks rise; if they are cooling down, stocks fall. Were it so simple — millionaires wouldn’t make up a measly .15% of the global population.

Obviously, there’s a major flaw with this logic; namely, it isn’t true. Time and again, stock prices smolder to near boiling even as economic growth chills to the bone. (The opposite also holds: Stock prices cool down even as the economy is on fire.)

Take, for instance, Germany’s main stock index, the DAX 30. On August 13, Europe’s number one economy reported a .3% rise in gross domestic product (GDP) — Germany’s first quarter of growth since January 2008. Soon after, the DAX began to rally and finished the day at a fresh, ten-month high.

In no time at all, every financial media outlet from Wall Street to la-la land had their story: "Germany’s DAX rose nearly 1% on the GDP data. The big picture will be one of ongoing gradual recovery through 2010." (LA Times)

One problem: the DAX’s bullish flame has been burning since the index landed at a two-year low on March 9, 2009. YET — the economic data over those six months has been about as "hot" as the Arctic Circle. Here, the following news stories from the time say plenty:

  • March 24, Wall Street Journal: "There’s a slew of evidence that Germany is in an economic freefall: A 19% drop in industrial output, a 23% decline in exports, a 35% drop in new manufacturing orders, and on. The numbers we’re seeing are just mind-boggling."
  • April 30, New York Times reveals a 17% year-over-year decline in Germany’s exports and writes, "With 47% of its GDP generated by


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Dec 16, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

A significant selloff Friday had bears continuing to enjoy December and calls for the bulls for the Federal Reserve to save them.  It’s been a very long time since bears have had the upper hand for such an extended period.  Volatility continues to be very high and the charts continue to say “remain in safety”.  The Russell 2000 – the laggard of 2018 – broke a yearly low set in February and the S&P 500 broke October lows to create a “lower low”.

Karyn Cavanaugh, senior market strategist with Voya Investment Management, said that disappointing economic data out of China was the biggest driver of Friday’s losses. “The Chinese data was a dirt sandwich, not because it showed deceleration in the Chinese economy, but because it’s showing...



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Phil's Favorites

Barry Ritholtz: Donald Trump Owns This Stock Market

Trump vs. Stock Market...

Many thought that Trump’s aggressive style and economic ignorance wouldn’t leave a lasting mark on either stocks or bonds.

That was wishful thinking. https://t.co/COMz54EOk6

— Bloomberg Opinion (@bopinion) December 16, 2018

...

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Zero Hedge

Visualizing The West's Domination Of The Global Arms Market

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Overall, arms sales increased in 2017, with total global sales nearing 400 billion dollars, marking a 2.5 percent increase from last year and the third year of continued growth for the industry.

But, as Statista's Sarah Feldman points out, U.S. arms companies still produce the most weapons worldwide.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Dow Theory Concerns? Transportation Stocks Make New Lows

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The bull market is experiencing its first real test since the 2014/2015 stock market correction. Volatility is high and key sectors are heading lower.

One such sector is the Transportation Sector(NYSEARCA: IYT) and select stocks.

The age-old Dow Theory call for the Industrials and Transports to lead the market (and confirm each others moves). Currently, both are struggling. But the Dow Transports are on the precipice of a major breakdown. Looking at the chart below, you can see that the Transportation Sector ETF (IYT) is attempting to break down below its 12-month trading range and 9-year rising support line.

If the market doesn’t reverse higher soon, this break down will send a negative message to investors about the economy… and the broader stock market.

A move lower wou...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto Bull Tom Lee: Bitcoin's 'Fair Value' Closer To $15,000, But He's Sick Of People Asking About It

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Listening to the crypto bulls of yesteryear continue to defend their case for new new all-time highs, despite a growing mountain of evidence to suggest that last year's rally was spurred by the blind greed of gullible marginal buyers (not to mention outright manipulation), one can't help but feel a twinge of pity for Mike Novogratz and Wall Street's original crypto uber-bull, Fundstrat's Tom Lee.

Lee achieved rock star status thanks to ...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Data on retail sales for November will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • Data on industrial production for November will be released at 9:15 a.m. ET.
  • The flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index for December is schedule for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • Data on business inventories for October will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the recent week is schedule for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Posted-In: Economic DataNews Economics ...



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Biotech

Those designer babies everyone is freaking out about - it's not likely to happen

Reminder: We're available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Those designer babies everyone is freaking out about – it's not likely to happen

Babies to order. Andrew crotty/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy A Cecile JW Janssens, Emory University

When Adam Nash was still an embryo, living in a dish in the lab, scientists tested his DNA to make sure it was free of ...



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Members' Corner

Blue Wave with Cheri Jacobus (Q&A II, Updated)

By Ilene at Phil's Stock World

Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shares her thoughts on the political landscape with us in a follow up to our August interview.

Updated 12-10-18

Ilene: What do you think about Michael Cohen's claim that the Trump Organization's discussions with high-level Russian officials about a deal for Trump Tower Moscow continued into June 2016?

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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