Posts Tagged ‘Elliott Wave analysis’

Monthly Trade Set-Up

Monthly Trade Set-Up

Courtesy of Allan

Below is a monthly chart of the DJIA with the Monthly Trend Model and Elliott Wave analysis courtesy of Advanced GET:

 Advanced GET Mechanical SELL SIGNAL requirements [these four have already been met]: 

(1) Measured 4th wave;
(2) Oscillator back to zero line (bottom study);
(3) False bar stochastic Sell Signal;
(4) Break of trend regression channels.

What is missing, so far, is the Trend Model Sell Signal. But on a Monthly chart, this will always be a lagging indicator with way too much lag to be of any worth in trading. We have seen in the last two monthly bars how that Monthly Trend Line has attracted prices, but repelled them both times. Will the next time finally break the back of this last remaining vestige of the 2009 bull market?

I find it fascinating how this particular trade set up works on all time frames. I used it last week on an hourly chart that I sent out to subscribers that just nailed a mid-day reversal. Here today, we see how it applies to a much larger time frame. I have been using this trade set-up since 1995 and it works just as well now as it did the 20th Century. For our purposes, giving us an edge for the next few months will have to do.

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Here’s Allan’s weekly chart which helps illustrate his point: the weekly chart has already signaled a sell; it takes longer for the monthly charts to change courses compared to the weekly charts. – Ilene 

Allan’s “Trend Following Trading Model” is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.


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That Was About As Fun As….

In reading Binve’s market update, keep in mind he’s bearish and short the market, so a good move in his eyes is down. See Binve’s previous Elliott Wave analysis here. - Ilene

That Was About As Fun As….

ouch!Courtesy of Binve at Market Thoughts and Analysis

(insert hard object hitting sensitive area joke here)

Here is my current count. The day sucked but was not as bad as it could have been, closing below the 1081 resistance. Good. It was not a bullish runaway. And divergence was showing up the last hour. Also good.

So there are two likely, basic options: triple zigzag or A-B-C with a big triangle.

Both yield similar targets based on Fib ratios. The lower target (which was met and where we consolidated at) was 1076-1078. The next target is 1084-1087. That is now where I think the move is likely to hit tomorrow.

But no matter what happens, we better close well below 1081 tomorrow (below 1060 would be lovely) otherwise we are set up to have a very bullish week next week.

[click on chart to enlarge]


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Germany’s DAX: Insight Into Europe’s Leading Economy

Note: Our friends at Elliott Wave International have announced the beginning of their "FreeWeek event, where they throw open the doors to some of their most popular paid services to non-subscribers for one week." This time, they’re offering complete access to The Asian-Pacific Short Term Update and The European Short Term Update. – Ilene

FreeWeek Kicks Off With Germany:  Click HERE to sign on and get invaluable insight into Europe’s #1 market.

Germany’s DAX: FREE Insight Into Europe’s Leading Economy

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International

It’s one of the first rules in the book of mainstream economic wisdom: a country’s economy is the thermometer which "reads" its stock market’s temperature. If financial conditions are heating up, stocks rise; if they are cooling down, stocks fall. Were it so simple — millionaires wouldn’t make up a measly .15% of the global population.

Obviously, there’s a major flaw with this logic; namely, it isn’t true. Time and again, stock prices smolder to near boiling even as economic growth chills to the bone. (The opposite also holds: Stock prices cool down even as the economy is on fire.)

Take, for instance, Germany’s main stock index, the DAX 30. On August 13, Europe’s number one economy reported a .3% rise in gross domestic product (GDP) — Germany’s first quarter of growth since January 2008. Soon after, the DAX began to rally and finished the day at a fresh, ten-month high.

In no time at all, every financial media outlet from Wall Street to la-la land had their story: "Germany’s DAX rose nearly 1% on the GDP data. The big picture will be one of ongoing gradual recovery through 2010." (LA Times)

One problem: the DAX’s bullish flame has been burning since the index landed at a two-year low on March 9, 2009. YET — the economic data over those six months has been about as "hot" as the Arctic Circle. Here, the following news stories from the time say plenty:

  • March 24, Wall Street Journal: "There’s a slew of evidence that Germany is in an economic freefall: A 19% drop in industrial output, a 23% decline in exports, a 35% drop in new manufacturing orders, and on. The numbers we’re seeing are just mind-boggling."
  • April 30, New York Times reveals a 17% year-over-year decline in Germany’s exports and writes, "With 47% of its GDP generated by


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Phil's Favorites

What is an inverted yield curve? Why is it panicking markets, and why is there talk of recession?

 

What is an inverted yield curve? Why is it panicking markets, and why is there talk of recession?

Markets know what has happened each time the yield curve has turned negative. The idea of a negative curve without a a recession would take some getting used to. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Mark Crosby, Monash University

Since President Trump tweeted about imposing new tariffs on China, global equity markets have gone into a tailspin.

Trump’s more recent announcement that the new tariffs would be ...



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Zero Hedge

Morgan Stanley: "The Global Economy Is Deteriorating Faster Than Offsetting Policy Action"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Sunday Start, submitted by Jonathan Garner and James Lord of Morgan Stanley

As regular readers know, Morgan Stanley is pretty bearish on global risk assets. This applies to emerging markets (EM) too, where we've been calling for wider credit spreads, weaker EM currencies, particularly in Asia, and lower equity prices. However, not so long ago the narrative guiding investors ran something like this: The Fed was ahead of the curve, EM bond yields looked attractive in a world of negative interest rates and a US-China trade deal seemed within reach...



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The Technical Traders

Negative Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Leadership

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Negative yields are becoming common for many of the world’s most mature economies.  The process of extending negative yields within these economies suggests that safety is more important than returns and that central banks realize that growth and increases in GDP are more important than positive returns on capital.  In the current economic environment, this suggests that global capital investors are seeking out alternative solutions to adequately develop longer-term opportunities and to develop native growth prospects that don’t currently exist.

Our research team has been researching this phenomenon and how it relates to the continued “capital shift&rdq...



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Insider Scoop

Heavy Volume Drives Low-Float Stock Plus Therapeutics Up 200%

Courtesy of Benzinga

Plus Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: PSTV) is the latest and one of the most extreme recent examples of the powerful combination of low float and heavy trading volume.

Plus shares traded higher by more than 215% on Friday. The biotech stock more than tripled after the company reported ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Long Term Stock Market Chart Perspective

Courtesy of Lee Adler

After a big day like yesterday, I like to get a little long term stock market chart perspective. (Yes, this stilted verbiage is for search engine optimization ).

We do that with a monthly bar chart, which I update when relevant in Lee Adler’s Technical Trader. That’s in addition to the regular daily bar/cycle charts covering the past year, and a weekly cycle chart covering the past 4 years.

I wrote on July 14, in reference to the price and indicator patterns on the weekly chart:

The market has overshot a 3-4 year cycle projection in terms of both price and time. There are no long term projections. A 4 year cycle high is ideally due now. A 4 ye...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P About To Decline 14%, Catching Up With The Crude Oil Declines?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

This chart looks at the performance of the S&P 500, Crude Oil and the Yield on the 10-Year note over the past 4-months.

Crude Oil has declined around 14% more than the S&P during this time frame. Yields have declined, even more, around 36%. The is a huge spread between these assets over this short of a time period.

A few importa...



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Chart School

Bitcoin 2019 fractal with Gold 2013

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Funny how price action patterns repeat, double tops, head and shoulders. These are simply market fractals of supply and demand.

More from RTT Tv

Ref: US Crypto Holders Only Have a Few Days to Reply to the IRS 6173 Letter

Today's news from the US IRS has been blamed for the recent price slump, yet the bitcoin fractal like the gold fractal suggest the market players have set bitcoin up for a slump to $9000 USD long before the IRS news hit the wire.

Get the impression some market players missed out on the b...

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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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