Posts Tagged ‘Elliott Wave Int.’

EUR/USD: What Moves You?

EUR/USD: What Moves You?

It’s not the news that creates forex market trends — it’s how traders interpret the news.

Courtesy of EWI’s Vadim Pokhlebkin

What moves currency markets? "The news" is how most forex traders would undoubtedly answer. Economic, political, you name it — events around the world are almost universally believed to shape trends in currencies.

A January 14 news story, for example, was high up on the roster of events that supposedly have a major impact on the euro-dollar exchange rate. That morning, the European Central Bank announced it was leaving the "interest rate unchanged at the record low of 1% for an eighth successive month." (FT.com)

The euro fell against the U.S. dollar after the news. But could it have rallied instead? You bet. In fact, traditional forex analysis says it should have. Here’s why.

Analysts always say that the higher a country’s interest rates, the more attractive its assets are to foreign investors — and, in turn, the stronger its currency. Well, U.S. interest rates are now at 0-.25% and in Europe, at 1%, they are 3 to 4 times higher. Isn’t that wildly bullish for the EUR? Apparently not, and wait till you hear why — because in today’s announcement ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet warned that European recovery would be “bumpy.” Ha!

By no means is this the first time a supposedly bullish event failed to lift the market. On June 6, 2007, for example, the ECB raised interest rates. Bullish, right? But the euro didn’t gain that day, either — the U.S. dollar did.

Watch forex markets with these "inconsistencies" in mind and you’ll see them often. In time you realize that it’s not news that creates market trends — it’s how traders interpret the news. That’s a subtle — but hugely important — distinction.

So the real question becomes: What determines how traders interpret the news? The Elliott Wave Principle answers that question head-on: social mood — i.e., how they collectively feel. Currency traders in a bullish mood disregard bad news and buy, leaving it to analysts to "explain" why. Bearishly-biased traders find "reasons" to sell even after the rosiest of economic reports.

If you know traders’ bias, you know the trend. How do you know? Watch Elliott wave patterns in forex charts – it’s reflected in there, on all time frames.

Today, the EUR/USD stands well below its November peak
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Market Sentiment: Is It Really at Bullish Extremes?

Market Sentiment: Is It Really at Bullish Extremes?

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International

At EWI’s Q&A Message Board, readers ask us dozens of questions daily. Here’s an interesting one that several subscribers have recently asked:

In Bob Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist, Short Term Update and elsewhere, you say that market sentiment is very bullish right now, which historically has indicated a market top. Is the sentiment really that bullish? I get a different feeling when I look around."

Elliott wave analysis is very visual; we’re all about charts. And often, a single look at a well-made chart can instantly show you what’s really been going on. Take a look at this chart from the December 2 issue of our Mon.-Wed.-Fri. Short Term Update:

stock market bears in hibernation

In the words of Steve Hochberg, the Update’s editor:

We see the bears’ retreat in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has dropped sharply the past three days to where it is nearly as low as it’s recent November 25 extreme of 20.05. We see it in the 10-day average of NYSE daily volume, which is at its lowest point since the bear-market rally started in March. And we see it in today’s release of the most recent Investors Intelligence Advisors’ Survey. The above chart shows the percentage of stock market bears, which has contracted to 16.7 percent… There are fewer bears now than at the October 2007 stock market peak and still fewer than at the June-July 2007 top in the NYSE a/d line.

By itself, a sentiment extreme — whether pessimistic or optimistic — is not a guarantee of a market reversal. (Nothing is, really: Financial markets exist in the world of probabilities, not certainties.) But couple sentiment measures with a longer-term Elliott wave pattern, and now you have a leg to stand on. 

*****

Elliott Wave International has extended their "downloading deadline" for their free 42-Page eBook, How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci. The eBook, created from the $129 two-volume set of the same name, is now available free until December 7, 2009. Go here to download your free eBook.

 


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Free offer from Elliott Wave International

Elliott Wave International (EWI) has just released a free eBook, "How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci."  This is being offered till Dec. 2nd.  Go here to download your free eBook.

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Free eBooks from EWI

Our friends at Elliott Wave International are offering a new eBook which they call an "expansive deflation survival guide."  Here’s what EWI has to say about the FREE "Deflation Survival Guide

Since the real estate top in 2005, deflation has festered its way into almost all asset classes, ravaging the portfolios of millions. If you’ve been spared from deflation’s mighty jaws, you surely know someone who hasn’t. 

Steadfastly throughout the years, Prechter issued warning after warning about the coming deflation. He provided helpful tips to readers on how to survive the coming deflation. Those who heeded his warnings have kept themselves, their families and their money safe.  If you haven’t yet given Prechter’s deflation argument your full attention, we write today to tell you that yesterday was the best time to do so. 

Prechter’s complete writings on deflation literally fill thousands of pages. Now, Prechter has compiled his most important deflation writings into a special 60-page Deflation Survival Guide. You will not find its entire contents in other books. Download your Free 60-page Deflation Survival Guide now.

 

Additional EWI free eBooks, listed here in this one convenient location:

 

 

 


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Zero Hedge

WeWork Board, Softbank Officials Push For CEO Neumann's Ouster

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The odds of WeWork co-founder and CEO Adam Neumann becoming "the world's first trillionaire"  maybe about to take another major hit.

In what appears to be the latest attempt to salvage the farce that is the WeWork IPO (and the massive hole it will leave in Masayoshi Son's balance sheet and credibility), ...



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Insider Scoop

Notable Insider Buys In The Past Week: AbbVie, Kraft Heinz And More

Courtesy of Benzinga

Insider buying can be an encouraging signal for potential investors.

A packaged food giant and two drugmakers saw notable insider buying activity this past week.

Some of this insider buying occurred alongside insider sales.

Conventional wisdom says that insiders and 10% owners really only buy shares of a company for one reason — they believe the stock price will rise and they want to profit. So insider...



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Phil's Favorites

Peloton IPO Guide... And Why It Makes No Sense

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Scott Willis via Grizzle.com

BOTTOM LINE

At the end of the day, Peloton is a gym membership pretending to be a tech company.

We fully admit the product is exciting and unique in the market, but Peloton still faces the same problem...



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Digital Currencies

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

 

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

Recent revelations about the lack of privacy protections in place at the companies involved in Facebook’s new Libra crytocurrency raise concerns about how much trust users can place in Libra. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Alfred Lehar, University of Calgary

Facebook, the largest social network in the world, stunned the world earlier this year with the announcement of its own cryptocurrency, Libra.

The launch has raised questions about the difference between Libra and existing cryptocurrencies, as well as the implications of private companies competing with s...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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The Technical Traders

Is A Price Revaluation Event About To Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer
and other narrow range price bars.  These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into
a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future.  The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).

Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs.  The rea...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

India About To Experience Major Strength? Possible Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!

Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!

This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.

The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to...



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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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