Posts Tagged ‘employment numbers’

ADP Jobs Report WAY Below Expectations

ADP Jobs Report WAY Below Expectations

Courtesy of Vincent Fernando at Clusterstock 

Yet another huge disappointment for markets to digest — ADP’s June employment report showed just 13,000 new jobs were added from May to June on a seasonally-adjusted basis, vs. 61,000 expected. That’s clearly a huge miss.

While the report continued to show job creation, the rate of new jobs fell substantially from the 55,000 reported last month. The latest 13,000 new jobs is also far below the five month average of 34,000 new jobs per month, based on ADP. Thus there has been an obvious deceleration.

Chart

ADP:

Recent ADP Report data suggest that, following steady improvement through April, private employment may have decelerated heading into the summer. The slow pace of improvement from February through June is consistent with other publicly available data, including a pause in the decline of initial unemployment claims that occurred during the winter months.

Small businesses have even begun to cut jobs:

Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment increase by 3,000 and employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers increased by 11,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, decreased by 1,000 in June.*

This is a huge change from the 13,000 jobs ADP said small businesses created in the previous month.

See the full report below.
FINAL Report June 10


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Taking the Market’s Temperature

Taking the Market’s Temperature

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

Just some random market thoughts and observations as we head into the holiday weekend doldrums…

* The S&P 500 looks to finish the 2nd quarter 2010 down 11%.  An absolute slaughterhouse from the end of April on. 

* You know the bulls are spent when we couldn’t even get the traditional End Of Quarter Markups.  Brian Shannon (Alpha Trends) called it "end of quarter window-smashing" yesterday with the indexes down close to 4% apiece.

* I’m hearing chatter about the possibility of a short squeeze but I’m not sure I see one brewing.  You would need something on the horizon that adds a little fear for the shorts.  You’re going to tell me that they’re afraid of tomorrow’s ADP report?  Or the employment numbers due out Friday? 

* (Supposedly) positive news from Europe’s banking wreck yielded little or no reaction here in the States this morning.  But we all know how negative news is reacted to lately.  A sentiment indicator if ever there was one:  Good News = Blah, Bad News = Death & Dismemberment.

* Apple finishes down more than ten bucks on news of a Verizon iPhone launch in 6 months.  So apparently, 10 million plus new iPhone users is an underwhelming possibility.  Another sentiment touchstone for sure.  Verizon was down, too.  Oh boy.

* No one running big money is looking to do anything heroic this week, regardless of stocks having gotten, shall we say, a bit cheaper.  Other than BP (because of Exxon rumors) and the Tesla IPO (hyped beyond belief), I saw little appetite for anything this week.  The selling has stopped in many stocks as of this writing, but now what?

***

Anyway, these are just some random observations as I take the market’s temperature.  I realize that taken together they are incredibly negative, but that’s the mood. 

We’ll see how she finishes the week. 

 


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WHY THE GOOD JOBS REPORT COULD BE BAD NEWS FOR 2010

WHY THE GOOD JOBS REPORT COULD BE BAD NEWS FOR 2010

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Investors are likely to be increasingly concerned about rate increases over the coming months due to the much better than expected non-farm payrolls report.  Using the last few recessions as a reference point it is likely that equity gains could become increasingly difficult to come by as the Fed is pressured to remove their accommodative stance and other programs are wound down.

Teun Draaisma at Morgan Stanley recently noted this in his “tightening checklist”.   I would expect an upgrade across the checklist.  As we expected job creation is certain to begin by Q1 and Fed language should begin to change dramatically.

 WHY THE GOOD JOBS REPORT COULD BE BAD NEWS FOR 2010

Despite higher rates coming shortly, MS expects the rally to continue in the near-term.  I can’t disagree with this outlook.  Stocks are very buoyant heading into Christmas and it’s unlikely that this report will force the Fed’s hand immediately.  Like Draaisma, I believe the rally could move higher into year-end based on this optimism, but could then begin to sputter out as 2010 becomes a year of higher rates and transition into an economy without a government crutch.  MS analysts report:

We expect the sweet spot to last a bit longer. The cyclical bull market has some further to run, in our view.  We expect 20%+ earnings growth in 2010, equity valuations are still attractive versus rates, and sentiment is not ultra-bullish yet. We prefer equities to fixed income, and we expect a further 9% upside to reach our 1200 bull case target for MSCI Europe based on the mid-cycle multiple on mid-cycle earnings of 15x 12% ROE.

Lessons from past tightening cycles. The start of tightening phases tends to lead to some indigestion and a defensive rotation in equity markets, for two quarters or more. The 1994 and 2004 episodes led to a 16% and 8% fall in MSCI Europe over eight and five months. Sector performance was defensive, but Oil and Materials outperformed, too. In the aftermath of secular bear markets tightening phases have been more severe, with equities falling on average 25% over 13 months.

Draaisma notes that it’s silly trying to jump on the back end of a 70% rally in an attempt to time the final leg up.  As we wrote earlier this week:

But Draaisma


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US Payrolls Less Than Meets The Eye

The consensus from what I’m reading about the employment report is that the superficially good numbers should not be taken as confirmation of ‘recovery" due to the effect of temporary influences. - Ilene

US Payrolls Less Than Meets The Eye

Courtesy of Mish

In today’s Lunch With Dave Dave Rosenberg shows how US Payrolls Less Than Meets The Eye. 

Today’s employment report is being treated as a ‘green shoot’ of major proportions. While it was by far the best jobs performance of the year, much of the better-than-expected tally in nonfarm payrolls reflected the bounce in auto production as well as the distortion from the federal census workers. Combined, these two influences effectively “added” 100,000 to the headline number, so net-net, the consensus view of -325,000 was not as far off the mark as the market believed at first glance.

The auto sector added 28,200 to the industry payroll in July, which was the highest tally in 11 years. To show you just how big that really is, it is a 69% annualized surge. Normally, the industry, which is in secular decline, posts job losses of between 20,000 and 30,000 consistently, so this alone represented roughly a 50,000 swing. We estimate that there was about a 30,000 swing in the rest of the manufacturing sector due to the spillover from the current inventory adjustment in the motor vehicle industry. The 0.3% MoM increase in the workweek was also skewed by the 4.1% MoM jump in the auto sector.

As we mentioned, there have been large fluctuations in the federal government payroll too. After hiring a slew of Census workers in the spring, there were 57,000 layoffs in May-June and then we saw in today’s report that 12,000 federal workers were “hired” in July. Again, mathematically, this contributed about 20,000 to today’s headline number. In other words, and we have no intent on raining on anyone’s parade, there was about 100,000 non-recurring payrolls in that top-line figure. It may be dangerous to extrapolate today’s report into a view that we are about to fully turn the corner on the job market front.

Yes, the income number was also firm; average weekly earnings popped 0.5%, but again, this reflected the bounce in the auto sector as well as the 10.7% increase in the minimum wage to $7.25 an hour. Again, this is a


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The New Employment Numbers: Things are Worsening More Slowly

The New Employment Numbers: Things are Worsening More Slowly

Courtesy of Robert Reich, Robert Reich’s Blog

The economy is getting worse more slowly. That’s just about the only clear reading that’s coming from the economic reports, including this morning’s important one on employment. The pace of job losses slowed — payrolls fell by 247,000, after a 443,000 loss in June, and the official jobless rate dropped from 9.5 to 9.4 percent.

Be careful with these figures, though. They don’t include the increasing numbers of people working part-time who’d rather have full-time jobs. Nor do they include a large number who have given up looking for work. They don’t reflect the many millions who have found new jobs that pay less than the old ones they lost. And they don’t include one of the shortest typical workweeks on record, for those who still have full-time jobs. (On this score, though, another indication that things are worsening more slowly — the workweek went up very slightly from 33 hours.) Nor, for that matter, do the numbers reflect the 130,000 people who are coming into the labor force each month ready and willing to work, who can’t find jobs.

If all these people are included, my estimate is that one out of five Americans who would otherwise be working full time are now underemployed. We are still experiencing the biggest decline of any post-World War II economic slump.

The overall economy continues to contract but more slowly than before. Consumers are not buying, exports are still dropping, and business investment is still in the doldrums, so the only clear reason is that the stimulus is beginning to kick in. Yet — here’s another important thing to watch — job losses continue to outpace that contraction. In other words, employers are using this downdraft to lay off more workers, proportionately, than they have since the Great Depression. The late economist Arthur Okun, after reviewing economic history, once pronounced a rule of thumb that every two percent drop in economic growth generates a one percent rise in unemployment. This time, that rule has been broken: The fall in growth has resulted in a much greater rise in unemployment. And if underemployment is figured in, a truly astonishing rise.

So let’s be grateful that the economy is getting worse more slowly than it was. But don’t be


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Zero Hedge

Renewables Not So Reliable As US Hydropower Plunges 14%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The transition away from hydrocarbons is not a seamless as many hope. The latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows a significant decline this year in hydropower generation amid historic droughts. 

The magical thinking about renewable energy and President Biden's calls for the U.S. power grid to be 100% clean by 2035 is a pipe dream. 

...

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Phil's Favorites

Facebook Inc. New Employee Manual

 

Facebook Inc. New Employee Manual

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway

I wrote this two and a half years ago, and believe it still lands.

[The following was originally published on May 31, 2019.]

Sociobook

There’s a firm that’s grown faster than any firm to date. Its founder also set the DNA of the firm, but without the benefit of the modulation and self-awareness that come with age. It’s in a sector where network effects created a handful ...



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Digital Currencies

China Declares All Virtual Currency Transactions "Illegal", Sending Crypto Prices Tumbling

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

China expanded its escalating crackdown on cryptocurrencies on Friday when its central bank declared that all activities related to digital coins are “illegal” and must be banned.

In a statement dated Sept. 15 but was only posted onto the central bank’s website at 5 p.m. local time on Friday, the People’s Bank of China said the latest notice was to further prevent the risks surrounding crypto trading and to maintain national security and social stability.

Naming bitcoin, ether and tether as examples, the centra...



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Politics

'What Betrayal Looks Like': UN Report Says World on Track for 2.7°C of Warming by 2100

 

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Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

'What Betrayal Looks Like': UN Report Says World on Track for 2.7°C of Warming by 2100

"Whatever our so-called 'leaders' are doing," said Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg, "they are doing it wrong."

By Jake Johnson, Common Dreams

The United Nations warned Friday ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

FDA panel recommends limiting Pfizer booster shots to Americans 65 and older, and those at high risk of severe COVID-19

 

FDA panel recommends limiting Pfizer booster shots to Americans 65 and older, and those at high risk of severe COVID-19

No third dose for now. AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty

Courtesy of Matthew Woodruff, Emory University

The key scientific advisory council of the Food and Drug Administration has voted to deny authorization of...



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Chart School

Gold and Silver Volume Waves Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The sign says it all. The professionals want the public to focus on the words, to scare out the weak hands, but the color of the sign underlines the value in a money printing world, its gold stupid.

Point and figure (PnF) charts draw price waves with the sum of volume per wave. PnF charts high light true accumulation underneath price action. This is why Richard Wyckoff favored PnF charts.    

In the charts below we see price moving sideways to down, yet volume on up waves are greater than volume on down waves. At the moment there is no heavy selling on down waves. Or in other words price is being moved down at a low volume expense to allow accumulation at a lower price.

This action represents professionals building their...

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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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