Posts Tagged ‘equity allocation’

SMALL INVESTORS WADE BACK INTO EQUITIES

SMALL INVESTORS WADE BACK INTO EQUITIES

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

The latest monthly survey from the AAII shows that small investors increased their equity allocation despite the tumbling market. This is in stark contrast to the recent State Street Survey of institutional money which shows that the “smart money” is moving out of stocks.  According to the historical data the current equity reading of 55% is 5% below the average while bonds remain 5% overweight and cash is right in-line with the historical average.

Historical Averages (November 1987 through August 2010)

  • Stocks Total: 60%
    • Highest Value: 77.0% (January 2000 & March 2000)
    • Lowest Value: 40.8% (March 2009)
  • Bonds Total: 15%
    • Highest Value: 25.5% (May 2010)
    • Lowest Value: 6.9% (November 2000)
  • Cash: 25%
    • Highest Value: 44.8% (March 2009)
    • Lowest Value: 11.0% (March 1998)
  • aaii SMALL INVESTORS WADE BACK INTO EQUITIES


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VALUE LINE HASN’T BEEN THIS BEARISH SINCE 2000

VALUE LINE HASN’T BEEN THIS BEARISH SINCE 2000

bearish, value lineCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Value Line, the well known stock picking digest, has turned more bearish on U.S. equities than at any point in the last 10 years.  The company is telling subscribers to pare back equity exposure to just 60%-70%.  That’s a low figure for most Wall Street research firms.  MarketWatch reports:

“according to one top-performing newsletter, there’s been too much of a good thing in the stock market since this rally began last March.The newsletter is the Value Line Investment Survey, which is in a tie for first place for risk-adjusted performance over the three decades the Hulbert Financial Digest has been monitoring the investment newsletter industry.

In its Aug. 21 issue, which was emailed to subscribers early Monday, Value Line reduced its recommended equity allocation to the range of 60% to 70%.

This reflects a cautious to outright bearish posture on Value Line’s part, since the firm has never lowered its recommended allocation to below 50%. The last time it was lower than it is now was October 2000.?

Value Line’s rationale for lowering its recommended equity allocation was not that the economic and financial news is about to take a big turn for the worse, however. Instead, the firm’s concern is that the stock market has rallied so far, so fast, that it has gotten too far ahead of itself.

“The equity market’s relatively high level assumes a lot of things going right within the economy,” Value Line wrote in its issue received Monday morning. “If some of these things go wrong, the reaction could be swift and severe.”

That was written before Monday’s stock market rout, of course. But the market’s sell-off would appear to be a good illustration of the phenomenon: The major reason given for the sell-off was not bad economic news but the mere fact that overseas stocks markets fell.

 


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Zero Hedge

Mexico Seizes Record 50 Tons Of Meth From Superlab

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After locating a massive drug laboratory near the town of Alcoyonqui, in Culiacán, Sinaloa, personnel of the Secretariat of the Navy seized 50 tons of methamphetamine, allegedly from the Sinaloa Cartel, in the most significant drug bust of this kind in the history of Mexico.

According to ...



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Chart School

The anatomy of the recent gold sell off

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

For the arrow to fly, the bow must be pulled back. Gold is in a pullback at the moment.


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Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Phil's Favorites

Facebook begins to shift from being a free and open platform into a responsible public utility

 

Facebook begins to shift from being a free and open platform into a responsible public utility

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg prepares to testify on Capitol Hill. AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

Courtesy of Anjana Susarla, Michigan State University

When Facebook recently removed several accounts for trying to influence the 2018 midterm elections, it was the company’s latest move acknowledging the ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin's rollercoaster ride reflects the biggest issue facing cryptocurrencies: regulation

 

Bitcoin's rollercoaster ride reflects the biggest issue facing cryptocurrencies: regulation

Shutterstock

Courtesy of Brian Lucey, Trinity College Dublin and Shaen Corbet, Dublin City University

The rollercoaster of cryptocurrency pricing is on the downward slope again. Bitcoin has fallen by a quarter in the past month, with other...



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ValueWalk

The Top 10 Wildest Campaigns Of 2018: Starboard's Stake In Symantec

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

This week’s column is a continuation of our 10 “wildest campaigns” of 2018. Find the first part here.

Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Free-Photos / PixabayTop 10 Wildest Campaigns Of 2018

5. How often does an activist win a proxy contest without support from either of the two main proxy advisory firms? (...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Small Caps attempting 20-year breakout, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The Russell 2000 trend remains solidly higher, as it has created a series of higher lows and higher highs inside of rising channel (1) over the past 25-years.

Small caps have been an upside leader in 2018, as they are very near all-time highs.

We applied Fibonacci extension levels to the 2007 highs and 2009 lows at each (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- Small caps are attempting a dual breakout at (3). 

This is a price point that small-cap bulls would LOVE to see strength and a breakout take place, as monthly momentum is lofty.

...

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Insider Scoop

Walmart Posts Standout Quarter, But Raymond James Downgrades On Flipkart Costs

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related WMT 10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday Headlights On Deere: Mixed Results As Company Cites H...

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Biotech

Nanomedicine could revolutionise the way we treat TB. Here's how

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Nanomedicine could revolutionise the way we treat TB. Here's how

Nanomedicine could scupper the need for TB patients to take multiple daily tablets with toxic side effects. Daniel Irungu/EPA

Courtesy of Sarah D'Souza, University of the Western Cape and Admire Dube, University of the Western Cape

Tuberculosis is one of the world’s ...



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Members' Corner

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump's Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

What do you think?

Thom Hartmann suggests that the "Manchurian Candidate theory" is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in "There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia—Which One Makes the Most Sense?" (below).  disagrees and suggests that Putin probably has "the goods" on Trump in "Trump’s Plot Against America". (To be fair, Hartmann acknowledges that his three theories are not mutually exclusive.) Jonathan Chait argues ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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