Friday Follies – Will Today be the 13th Day Below S&P 2,000?
by phil - September 12th, 2014 7:20 am
12 failures so far.
12 trading days since the S&P first hit 2,000 (Aug 25th) in which we have failed to hold 2,000 for a full day. Not one and, unless the Futures pop 10 points before we open, not today either. On 10 of those days, we've had a late-day run-up on low volume that popped us over 2,000 and on 7 of those days, 2,000 held at the close but EVERY SINGLE DAY – it also failed to hold.
Let's not forget that, during this time, we've had TRILLIONS of Dollars of additional stimulus pledged by Carney, Draghi, Kuroda and other minor Central Banksters and Yellen has certainly been as doveish as she could by (while still tapering our existing Trillion Dollar stimulus). This is how our market behaves WITH Trillions of Dollars of cash being pumped into the Global economy – I wonder what will happen when it stops?
Of course, maybe it won't stop but, if it doesn't, this chart will look even uglier. This is a chart of our projected net annual interest payments on our debt in 10 years. That's $880 BILLION Dollars each year, just in interest payments, up $650Bn from the $233Bn we are spending now.
That's WITHOUT additional stimulus so I guess we can go for a bit more and make it an even Trillion, right? These are what we used to call CONSEQENCES – back when we used to care about such things. The US is not the leader in debt issuance, not by a long shot. Japan is 150% more in debt than we are and China has now doubled our debt to GDP ratio, after having been a creditor back in 2007 but now the undisputed king of stimulus spending.
Europe is also a mess. As I said to our Members in an early-morning Alert: Another thing the US Media is purposely ignoring is the 12.5% correction in Europe (example on Germany chart) since July that, so far, has bounced weakly (4-point drop on EWG has weak bounce at 28.8 and strong at 29.6) – failing exactly…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – Weak Bounces and Beige Books
by phil - April 11th, 2012 8:01 am
Are you buying the dips?
We're not yet. Notice that we've now blown 4 of our 5 Must Hold lines (the Dow never did make theirs, which kept us bearish in the first place) and, technically, the S&P failed to hold 1,360 as well but close enough to avoid panic so far.
Falling from 1,420 to 1,360 is 60 points so we'll be looking for a weak bounce (20% retracement) to 1,372 and a strong bounce (40%) past 1,384 would get us back in a buying mood but let's not count those chickens before they're hatched.
France and Germany are bouncing 1.5% this morning as the Euro stages a recovery back to that critical $1.31 line and the UK is up 0.77% (7:40) with the Pound back at $1.59. We noted in Member Chat that this seems like SNB buying to support that 1.20 line on EUR/CHF as we;re certainly not getting a move back up in copper ($3.65), Natural gas ($2.04) or gasoline ($3.24) that we'd expect if we had any additional stimulus or some sort of positive economic data. Even gold is down this morning ($1,659) so I do not have a lot of faith in this early-morning market movement so far.
Clearly we're not going to get excited about anything until our indexes can at least take back those 50 dma's (red lines) and the Dollar holding it's line at 79.60 is also bad news for the bulls. To keep that 1.5% gain in perspective, it's 88 points – back to 6,695 and we're down from 7,150 so "only" 5 more 1.5% up days to go and Germany is back on top.
This is always the tricky part about retracements – it's not so much what you get on the bounce (not even 20% on the DAX), but is the bounce going to be sustainable to get you to 6,850, which is the 20 dma (3% higher than we are now) and then to 7,000, which is the falling 50 dma – 5% over the current mark?
Keep in mind that the longer it takes to retake the 50 dma, the more it curves down and then you are running into a declining 50 dma, which has a much better chance of rejecting you – especially as you are running out of gas after having to climb 5% just to get there.…
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A Thinly Veiled Bail
by ilene - December 28th, 2011 11:44 pm
A Thinly Veiled Bail
By Ilene at Phil’s Stock World, with Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner (many thanks to Lee!)
The ECB is borrowing U.S. Dollars from the Fed to bailout European banks. And that is in addition to the Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO).
However, the "borrowing" is not called "borrowing." It’s called a "temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangement." Yet it is really borrowing because it’s going massively in one direction for the purpose of giving the ECB Dollars to lend to European banks, so the ECB can avoid lending more Euros. The ECB doesn’t want to tarnish its "inflation fighting" reputation and further devalue the Euro. Instead, the Fed is taking billions of Euros as collateral for the Dollar swap.
As Gerald P. O’Driscoll Jr., former vice president and economic advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and senior fellow at the Cato Institute, wrote in the WSJ (The Federal Reserve’s Covert Bailout of Europe):
"The ECB would also prefer not to create boatloads of new euros, since it wants to keep its reputation as an inflation-fighter intact. To mitigate its euro lending, it borrows dollars to lend them to its banks. That keeps the supply of new euros down. This lending replaces dollar funding from U.S. banks and money-market institutions that are curtailing their lending to European banks—which need the dollars to finance trade, among other activities."
U.S. Banks and financial institutions do not want to lend European Banks more Dollars, and it would look bad for the Fed to do this unpopular lending directly, so the Fed has found an indirect route.
"The two central banks are engaging in this roundabout procedure because each needs a fig leaf. The Fed was embarrassed by the revelations of its prior largess with foreign banks. It does not want the debt of foreign banks on its books. A currency swap with the ECB is not technically a loan."
In exchange for Euros as collateral, the ECB gets non-technically loaned Dollars which it then lends to European banks. The additional Dollars flowing to the EU banks enable the ECB not to release more Euros to the EU banks and into circulation. According to O’Driscoll, this "Byzantine financial arrangement" was designed perfectly to confuse people.
"The Fed’s support is in addition to
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Media: What Isn’t Priced In Yet?
by ilene - September 12th, 2011 11:33 pm
Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker
One of the toughest calls to make here is whether or not we’ve got enough negativity in these S&P 500 levels yet. The answer is that we’re probably almost there in terms of apathy and disgust for stocks, but valuations aren’t yet alarmingly cheap and there is some difficulty in determining whether Europe has gotten close enough to the abyss to drop the big money bomb on it’s problems just yet. The washout, in my opinion, is still out there somewhere…
I dropped in on the CNBC Street Signs gang for a live taping from New Jersey today, we talked about this very subject and Hedgeye’s Keith McCullough was also in the mix. Enjoy!
Source:
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Hugh Hendry On The “Near Certainty” Of European Interest Rate Rises
by ilene - January 21st, 2011 9:42 pm
Courtesy of Zero Hedge
Europe risks getting it wrong again on rate rises
From European Central Bank, posted first in the FT
The euro project has not gone according to plan. It reminds me of the story of the James Bond character Q, based on the British intelligence officer Charles Fraser-Smith. It was he who invented a compass for spies hidden in a button that unscrewed clockwise. The contraption was based on the simple yet brilliant theory that the unswerving logic of the German mind would never guess that something might unscrew the wrong way. This is really what happened with the euro. New member states were supposed to take lower German interest rates and invest their resources wisely to improve and deepen their productive capacity. Instead, they used the advantage to finance speculative asset bubbles. The peripheral nations of Europe turned the wrong way. The Germans are unhappy.
But, desperate to cling to monetary union, the other European sovereigns have opted to default on their spending promises to voters rather than impose a haircut on their financial creditors. In the 1920s the pay-off structure had been very different. The first world war took an intolerable toll on the typical household both in terms of the loss of life and financial well-being; everyone had become poorer. Accordingly, there was little willingness on the part of the ruling political class to force austerity measures to redress the fiscal imbalances. The people had suffered long enough. Consequently, there was much procrastination and fiscal deficits persisted way beyond the end of the war, making capital markets reluctant to accept the waning security of government paper and forcing the sovereign to rely on the central bank’s printing press.
This time around, however, the political class has concluded that the Greeks (especially the Greeks!) and the other peripheral states have done so well off the back of the euro project that it is their turn to shoulder the burden. They calculate that the social pain would be less severe than the financial costs of a debt default and/or a euro exit. Of course, this is to neglect the financial consequences of bailing out the financial sector in 2008 and its ensuing impact on the ordinary household. Can an analogy be drawn between the first world…
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FED EXTENDS USD SWAPS THROUGH SUMMER 2011
by ilene - December 21st, 2010 2:51 pm
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
The Fed announced this morning that they will be extending U.S. dollar liquidity swaps through summer of 2011. This is basically their way of saying that they’re worried about the risk of a dollar funding crisis still. That’s not unreasonable given the elevated risks in Europe (it’s nice to see a more proactive Fed), however, it does expose the USA to a risk that it should never have – foreign denominated debt risk. They issued this useful primer on swaps along with the announcement:
Why has the Federal Reserve re-established temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap facilities with foreign central banks?
The swap facilities announced in May 2010 respond to the re-emergence of strains in short term funding markets in Europe. They are designed to improve liquidity conditions in global money markets and to minimize the risk that strains abroad could spread to U.S. markets, by providing foreign central banks with the capacity to deliver U.S. dollar funding to institutions in their jurisdictions.
With which central banks has the Federal Reserve entered into swap facilities?
The Federal
Reserve has established swap arrangements with the Bank of Canada (BOC), the Bank of England (BOE), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ).How will the swap facilities function?
The swap lines with the ECB, BOE, SNB and BOJ will provide these central banks with the capacity to conduct tenders of U.S. dollars in their local markets at fixed local rates for full allotment, similar to arrangements that had been in place previously. The swap line with the Bank of Canada allows for drawings of up to $30 billion. The terms, structure, and operational mechanics of these swap agreements closely parallel the arrangements that expired on February 1, 2010. For reference please see the attached link.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_swapfaqs.htm
For how long are the swap facilities expected to be operational?
These swap arrangements have been authorized through August 1, 2011. Central banks may request drawings on their swap lines up to the date of expiration.
Is the Federal Reserve exposed to foreign exchange or private bank risk in extending these lines?
No. Dollars provided through the reciprocal currency swaps are provided by the Federal Reserve to foreign central banks, not to the institutions obtaining the funding in these operations. The foreign central bank receiving dollars determines the terms on which it will lend dollars onward to
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ETF News Update:Korea, Ireland, and Quiet on The Western Front (SPY, DIA, UUP, TLT)
by ilene - December 20th, 2010 7:44 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi
Sabres were rattling on the Korean Penninsula today while Europe’s troubles percolated on the back burner and U.S. markets meandered in lighter than average pre-Christmas volume.
South Korea conducted its drills in spite of dire North Korean warnings but the ripples of the conflict spread across the region as the Shanghai Composite (SSEC) dropped -1.4%, bringing its decline from early November perilously close to the -10% marker for an official “correction.”
On the other side of the world, Europe continued struggling with its debt problems as Moody’s downgraded Anglo Irish Bank to junk status and Portugal and Greece continue attracting the negative attention of the ratings agencies. In France, the cost of insuring debt rose to record highs while the Euro declined over concerns of the ongoing banking stress in the Union.
At home, all was quiet on the Western Front as the dollar (UUP) gained, the long bond(TLT) declined and the Dow (DIA) slipped into the red while the S&P 500 (SPY) remaisn near two year highs.
On the technical side of market analysis, we remain in a sideways consolidation, unable to break higher while finding solid support just below current levels. Momentum continues to wane and the action in China could have bearish implications as the Shanghai Composite is being seen by more and more analysts as a leading indicator as that country’s global economic clout continues to grow.
At Wall Street Sector Selector, we remain in the “Yellow Flag” mode, expecting choppy to lower prices ahead.
Disclosure: Wall Street Sector Selector trades a wide variety of widely traded exchange traded funds and positions can change at any time.
Click here to learn more about John’s book and for a free membership to Wall Street Sector Selector
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The Three Stages of Delusion
by ilene - December 7th, 2010 1:48 pm
Courtesy of John Mauldin, Outside the Box
I am back from the Forbes cruise to Mexico and starting to deal with a thousand things, but first on the list is making sure you get this week’s Outside the Box. And a good one it is. In fact, it is two short pieces coming to us from friends based in London over the pond.
Both of them have to deal with the unfolding crisis that is Europe, which is going to unfold for several years as they lurch from solution to solution. The first is from Dylan Grice of Societe Generale and reminds us why we should put no stock in what leaders say about a crisis. He has lined up the statements of leaders from one crisis after another. He finds a simple, repeating pattern. And shows where we are now.
The second is from hedge fund manager Omar Sayed, who I met last time I was sin London. A very bright chap and good guy. He offers us very succinctly four paths that Europe can take. Some of them are not pretty. It all makes for a very interesting OTB. I trust your week will go well.
Your over-dosed on guacamole (and it was worth it) analyst,
John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box
Flashback to Crises Past: Three Stages of Delusion
Popular Delusions
By Dylan Grice
The recent sequence of reassurances from various eurozone policymakers suggests we are in the early, not latter, stages of the euro crisis. Only an Anglo-Saxon style QE will prevent dissolution of the euro. Such a radically un-German solution will only be taken with a full acceptance of how serious the euro’s problems are. But denial persists.
The dawning of reality hurts. Prodded and bullied along a tortuous emotional path by events unforeseen and beyond our control, we descend through three phases: the first is denial that there is a problem; the second is denial that there is a big problem; the third is denial that the problem was anything to do with us.
US policymakers’ three steps during the housing crash fit the template well. Asked in 2005 about the danger posed to the economy by the housing bubble, Bernanke responded: “I guess I don’t buy your premise. It’s a pretty unlikely possibility. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.” Here was the…
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IS QE2 THE ROAD TO ZIMBABWE-STYLE HYPERINFLATION? NOT LIKELY.
by ilene - December 2nd, 2010 1:19 pm
Ellen Brown asks and answers, IS QE2 THE ROAD TO ZIMBABWE-STYLE HYPERINFLATION? NOT LIKELY. Her views of the Fed’s activities, debt and the risk of hyperinflation are different than many we’ve been presenting here. Further discussion is welcome. – Ilene
Courtesy of Unlike Zimbabwe, the U.S. can easily get the currency it needs without being beholden to anyone. But wouldn’t that dilute the value of the currency? No.
A month ago, the bond vigilantes were screaming that the Fed’s QE2 would be the first step on the road to Zimbabwe-style hundred trillion dollar notes. Zimbabwe (the former Rhodesia) is the poster example of what can go wrong when a government pays its bills by printing money. Zimbabwe’s economy collapsed in 2008, when its currency hyperinflated to the point that it was trading with the U.S. dollar at an exchange rate of 10 trillion to 1. On November 29, Cullen Roche wrote in the Pragmatic Capitalist:
Back in October the economic buzzwords had become “money printing” and “debt monetization”. . . . [T]he Fed was initiating their policy of QE2 and you’d have been hard pressed to find someone in this country (and around the world for that matter) who wasn’t entirely convinced that the USA was about to send the dollar into some sort of death spiral. QE2 was about to set off a round of inflation that would make Zimbabwe look like a cakewalk. And then something odd happened – the dollar rallied as QE2 set sail and hasn’t looked back since.
What really happened in Zimbabwe? And why does QE2 seem to be making the dollar stronger rather than weaker, as the inflationistas predicted?
Anatomy of a Hyperinflation
Professor Michael Hudson has studied hyperinflation extensively. He maintains that “every hyperinflation in history stems from the foreign exchange markets. It stems from governments trying to throw enough of their currency on the market to pay their foreign debts.”
It is in the foreign exchange markets that a national currency becomes vulnerable to manipulation by speculators.
The Zimbabwe economic crisis dated back to 2001, when the government defaulted on its loans and the IMF refused to make the usual accommodations, including refinancing and loan forgiveness. Zimbabwe’s credit was ruined and it could not get loans elsewhere, so the government resorted to issuing its
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Thursday Thrust – Just Buy the F’ing Dips!
by phil - December 2nd, 2010 8:04 am
It's very sad when you can get your best financial advice from cartoon characters.
I apologize for the language but this video pretty much says it all. As the man in green says: "Buy the f'ing dip, you f'ing idiot." That's the entirety of the market strategy we are being trained like Pavlov's dogs to follow. Also as the man says "Now, don't forget this only works if you go out and tell all your friends and family to do the same. That way, when they are buying more expensively than you, you can sell back to them and collect your money."
Of course it's a Ponzi scheme but it's a gigantic, legal one and the best thing about it is that the Government FORCES everyone to play so you never run out of suckers. When there is a lack of actual new sucker/investors to put money in, the Government steps in with stimulus or buys equities (QE1) or buy Treasuries from the banks so they can have free capital to buy equities with (QE2). They debase the currency and drive inflation higher while talking it up even more so and virtually penalizing people for saving money and not shopping. In this way, the US Government places a tax on every single citizen through a systemic devaluation of their lifetime accumulation of wealth as well as unfavorable savings and inflation conditions that are aimed to force money into equities and commodities.
What is the logic to this? Well, none if you are a government that actually cares about the long-term benefit of 310M people but we haven't had a government that was "for the people" since they put two in the back of Kennedy's neck so why complain about it now? What we should be doing is celebrating the sheer stupidity of the situation and enjoying the ride as this stock market roller coaster clacks up the tracks – towards a drop that is certain to have investors screaming all the way down but, for now, let's listen to what the Bernanke Bears have to say in their latest cartoon about the Bank America crisis with WikiLeaks as well as their advice on NFLX and CRM:
Now, what could be more simple than that? Just take all…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.