Posts Tagged ‘exit strategy’

ECB Reflections on THE Exit Strategery

Courtesy of Chopshop writing at Zero Hedge 

ECB Reflections on THE Exit Strategy

To: inflationistas hyperventilating about hyperinflation

From: Austrians & Socionomists versed in historical precedent, with actual methodology and an analytic-leg to stand on

Before delving into Lorenzo Bini Smaghi’s noteworthy speech, chock full of ECB insight, please permit a wee bit of deflationist rant ‘Through the Looking-Glass‘ of social mood as per:

[1]  the management of inflation expectations; 

[2]  the implications within central bank (CB) exit strategery; and

[3]  ‘what Alice is likely to find’ in Mr. Market’s immediate future.

inflation? Let me know when and where you find it in the US, ok ?

3/13 month M2, staggered M3, hell recreate your own M5 … you simply cannot counter with a valid argument that does not shortly resort to:

‘yeah, but. it’s coming. somewhere.  you’ll see.  just you wait. in a flash.  soon.’

What is so difficult to see / understand about how targeted inflationary pressures can be used as simple (Gulliver) ropes to hold back the brunt of crushing deflation while obfuscating underlying ‘realities’ of econometric measurement … everywhere ?

I suppose it is the all-encompassing belief in the power of the shiny, yellow metal (gold) that you can’t eat and which has zero intrinsic value outside of that which is imbued upon it … by what ~ how you / we feel about its prospects.

Look: Tiny Tim (Geithner) is decent enough, no Hanky Panky from the Farm at 85 Broad, but certainly decent enough; and Greenspan was a true hustler’s hustler (suggest examining Al’s statements of the past few years a wee bit closer); but Bernake … ohhh, sweet Uncle Ben was born & bred for this very role.

Bernanke’s entire modern career has been spent fostering a rock-solid avatar of Textron-ity; he gave himself his own nickname!  Ben has everyone so thoroughly confused / misdirected as to his Intermediate intention (and the underlying motif within official policy direction) as per the $USD & QE 2.0 tightening that he has done his job; and masterfully so.  Such is his job; the BoE’s Mervyn King explicitly outlined such obfuscatory CB playbook strategery almost a decade ago

Fed policy is a battleship that takes time to turn, especially since the Fed doesn’t actually steer the ship … they just talk about alleged “reasons” (like the “news”), while keeping…
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Fed Raises Discount Rate, Dollar Soars, Equity Futures Sink, What’s It Really Mean?

Fed Raises Discount Rate, Dollar Soars, Equity Futures Sink, What’s It Really Mean?

Courtesy of Mish 

The Fed has been talking about its "exit strategy" for quite some time. Few believed he would pull the trigger on anything soon. Yet, Bernanke, unexpectedly raised the discount rate headed into options expiration.

Please consider the Federal Reserve Discount Rate Announcement released after the market close on February 18, 2010.

The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday announced that in light of continued improvement in financial market conditions it had unanimously approved several modifications to the terms of its discount window lending programs.

Like the closure of a number of extraordinary credit programs earlier this month, these changes are intended as a further normalization of the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities.

The changes to the discount window facilities include Board approval of requests by the boards of directors of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks to increase the primary credit rate (generally referred to as the discount rate) from 1/2 percent to 3/4 percent. This action is effective on February 19.

In addition, the Board announced that, effective on March 18, the typical maximum maturity for primary credit loans will be shortened to overnight. Finally, the Board announced that it had raised the minimum bid rate for the Term Auction Facility (TAF) by 1/4 percentage point to 1/2 percent. The final TAF auction will be on March 8, 2010. ….

The increase in the discount rate announced Thursday widens the spread between the primary credit rate and the top of the FOMC’s 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 percentage point. The increase in the spread and reduction in maximum maturity will encourage depository institutions to rely on private funding markets for short-term credit and to use the Federal Reserve’s primary credit facility only as a backup source of funds. The Federal Reserve will assess over time whether further increases in the spread are appropriate in view of experience with the 1/2 percentage point spread.

Unsustainable Course

That move comes on the heels of St. Louis Fed President Hoenig saying policy was on an unsustainable course as noted in "Three Paths Forward" – Kansas City Fed on Current U.S. Fiscal Imbalance, Hyperinflation, Printing.

From Hoenig …

No Short Cuts

Finally, there are no short-cuts. We currently must adjust from a misallocation of resources. There is no way


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When Monetizing 12% Percent Of GDP Isn´t Enough…….

When Monetizing 12% Percent Of GDP Isn´t Enough…….

Courtesy of Jan-Martin Feddersen at Immobilienblasen

Not quite an "Exit Strategy"……. This Cartoon on "Green Shoots" is spot on…..  As long as the pound & gilts are not crashing this will continue…..I´m pretty sure Bernanke is watching the market reaction very closely…. Especially with the Fed running low on ammo….. Read A 300-year-old example of quantitative easing…. John Law, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke… via The Mess That Greenspan Made as a reminder what can happen…

trillions of dollars

The governor’s insatiable appetite for QE FT Alphaville

The Governor invited the Committee to vote on the proposition that:

Bank Rate should be maintained at 0.5%;

The Bank of England should finance a further £50 billion of asset purchases by the creation of central bank reserves, implying a total quantity of £175 billion of such asset purchases. The Bank should seek to complete the additional purchases within the next three months.

Six members of the Committee (Charles Bean, Paul Tucker, Kate Barker, Spencer Dale, Paul Fisher and Andrew Sentance) voted in favour of the proposition. Three members of the Committee (the Governor, Tim Besley and David Miles) voted against, preferring to increase the size of the asset purchase programme by £75 billion to a total of £200 billion.

Yep, Mervyn King, together with Besley and Miles wanted the rate of monetary stimulus increasing, not just extending at the current rate of £50bn-a-quarter. That was good for half a cent off sterling versus the dollar and a third of a cent v the euro on Wednesday morning. Gilts, of course, spiked higher.

Somebody stop me Alice Cook from the great blog UK Bubble

The extraordinary thing about UK monetary policy today is how close it is shadowing fiscal policy. This year, the Bank of England printing presses will produce roughly the same amount of new money as this year’s fiscal deficit. Or to put it more bluntly, the private sector have, on a net basis, stopped lending money to the government.

The Casey Report

> The estimated issuance is based on this "optimitic" forecast…. Especially compared to the IMF, OECD, Bloomberg


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Phil's Favorites

Bloomberg's Ted Merz Joins Me on Panic with Friends to Discuss Financial Journalism and Information Dissemination in the Age of Social Media

 

Bloomberg’s Ted Merz Joins Me on Panic with Friends to Discuss Financial Journalism and Information Dissemination in the Age of Social Media

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

My friend Ted Merz at Bloomberg has one of the most interesting jobs in the world. Ted has been at Bloomberg since 1991 and today heads Bloomberg’s Global News Product. That is a complicated job and this is a complicated era of news considering the 24/7/365 flow of information, misinformation and of course news. Ted makes it all look easy. I mi...



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Zero Hedge

Microsoft Patents AI-Chatbots That Imitate Dead People 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) granted Microsoft one of the most bizarre patents to date: chatbots using deceased people's personal information. 

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bitcoin Parabolic Rally Reversal Faces Big Support Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One of the biggest breakouts of 2020 came by way of Bitcoin. And it was epic.

The coronavirus crash saw the cryptocurrency retest its 2018 lows before rocketing higher in parabolic fashion.

Did Bitcoin Peak? What’s Next?

Today we examine a “weekly” chart of Bitcoin, highlighting its parabolic rally… and recent reversal lower.

The rally in Bitcoin surged all the way to the 361% Fibonacci extension level at (1) before creating the largest bearish reversal in years.

In just a few weeks time, Bitcoin is testing its 261% Fibonacci level near 31,000 at (2). This is a big test of support for the cryptocurrency. A “weekl...



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ValueWalk

Hybrid Electric Vehicles: A Stay of Execution for NiMH Batteries

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Hybrid Electric Vehicles: A Stay of Execution for NiMH Batteries, Explores IDTechEx

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

NiMH Batteries Are Still Commonly Used

When we talk about battery-electric vehicles, the lithium-ion battery is dominant; however, for full hybrid electric vehicles (those that have electric-only modes but do not plug-in), NiMH batteries are still the most common battery on the road. With the growing market for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), will this drive further demand for NiMH batteries and stop them from being eliminated from the automotive market?...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 05:26:16 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This is lack of liquidity means support is likely to break if it is tested hard!



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 09:51:58 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Nasdaq losing momentum.



Da...

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Politics

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

 

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

Rioters mass on the U.S. Capitol steps on Jan. 6. Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeff Inglis, The Conversation

In the wake of the insurrection on Jan. 6, the U.S. is bracing for the possibility of additional violent demonstrations and potential riots at the U.S. Capitol and state capitol buildings around the nation. W...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

 

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

By mid-January, only about a quarter of the COVID-19 vaccines distributed for U.S. nursing homes through the federal program had reached people’s arms. Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

Courtesy of Tinglong Dai, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing

The urgency of vaccinating nursing home residents is evident in the numbers. The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed the lives of mo...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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