Posts Tagged ‘EXP’

Options Player Positions for Recovery in Beleaguered Bank of America Shares

Today’s tickers: BAC, JNJ, EXP, KO, YHOO, VVUS, SKS & STJ

BAC – Bank of America Corp. – A large-volume bullish risk reversal initiated in the September contract on Bank of America in the first half of the current trading day indicates one options strategist is positioning for a rebound in the price of the underlying stock by expiration day in a couple of months. BAC’s shares, which fell 2.85% to $13.38 this afternoon, are currently down more than 32.7% since the stock reached a 52-week high of $19.86 back on April 15, 2010. Analysts at Goldman Sachs removed Bank of America from the conviction buy list on Monday. But, one optimistic individual is rooting for BAC to come roaring back to life by September expiration day. The investor appears to have sold 20,000 puts at the September $12 strike for a premium of $0.26 apiece in order to purchase the same number of calls at the higher September $15 strike for a premium of $0.36 each. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $0.10 per contract. If financial services firm’s shares fail to rally above $15.00 by expiration, the investor will lose the full premium paid to purchase the trade. However, if the price of the underlying increases 12.85% over the current price of $13.38, the risk reversal player will start to make money above the effective breakeven price of $15.10 through September expiration. Finally, the short position in put options at the September $12 strike suggests the investor is willing to have Bank of America shares put to him at an effective price of $12.10 apiece should the puts land in-the-money at expiration.

JNJ – Johnson & Johnson – Shares of the provider of consumer products, pharmaceuticals and medical devices fell more than 2.85% in afternoon trading to arrive at $56.89 just before 3:00 pm (ET). The health care company’s shares slipped lower after the firm said second-quarter revenue was flat and lowered its 2010 profit forecast by $0.15 a share. JNJ still reported a 7.5% increase in net income, earning $1.23 a share in the second-quarter, but revising full year earnings lower took its toll on the price of the underlying stock today. One contrarian options player populating JNJ LEAPS caught our eye this afternoon. The investor appears to have purchased a plain-vanilla debit call spread using sky-high strike prices in the January 2012 contract. The…
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Mega Earnings Monday – 1,000 Reports This Week!

What a crazy week this is going to be!

Pre-Market we're hearing from BLK, CAT (are we building stuff?), EXP, HTZ, HUM, LO, TUES and TZOO and later we will hear from BSX, CHH, OLN, RSH, RCII, TXN (major) and my "friendbuddypal" Cramer's TSCM (if they are not delayed).  Revenues at The Street have crept back up this year in a recovery that pretty much mirrors the market.  The company does pay a nice 2.6% dividend, which works out to a nice $200,000 bonus on Jimmy's 2.1M shares (6.7% of the company) so you know that bonus will be a priority for the company.  Cramer was BUYBUYBUYing his own stock at $2.41 in January but sadly they have no options to hedge…  They might make a nice pick-up after earnings if they disappoint and head back to $3 or less.

I'm full of useful information on hundreds of stocks right now because I've been researching our new Buy List but I'm not pleased with what I've been seeing so far and this week's tidal wave of earnings, with 1,000 companies reporting means we're in no hurry to dip our toes in the water.  I told Members this morning I should probably be working on a Sell List, as it's much easier to find companies I want to short than ones I want to buy.  Even in the Weekly Wrap-Up, we featured a 1,900% downside hedge on the Russell to offset the 566% plays and other bullish plays we've begun to reluctantly take, just so we don't feel too silly in this runaway market. 

If you have never watched Jim Cramer discussing the sleazy, manipulative ways he used to game the markets – you really must take 10 minutes and watch this video, where Jim explains how any immoral bastard with $10M can yank the entire futures market around at will.  He prefaces one of his favorite strategies with "this is blatantly illegal but.. I think it's really important… these are things you MUST do on a day like today and if you are not doing it, maybe you shouldn't be in the game."  Are you playing the game or are you being played? 

The biggest game ever played may be unwinding as we speak.  Bloomberg reports that foreign-exchange profits from carry trades are disappearing as differences in central
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Testy Tuesday Morning – Coincidence or Confidence Game?

What will hold up?

As you can see from our chart set, our major indices are trading very much in synch, more likely than not propelled by trade-bots that already have the next 25 trading days already mapped out to take us through the end of the quarter.  Of course you can argue that it's perfectly natural for 8 of 9 different indexes to follow virtually identical patterns as a result of the random trading of millions of individuals trading Trillions of Dollars worldwide and that's your perogative.  I prefer to think of it as one giant scam and then figure out ways to make a little money off it for ourselves

Several times last week I said to members I thought "THEY" were running the market higher so they could sell calls to suckers at high prices but, in general, the move was "fake, Fake, FAKE."  What do we do in the face of flagrant market manipulation?  What do you think we do – we play along!  We don't complain about good manipulation when we see it – we join in!  Don't be confused by the fact that I complain about it in my morning post – once the bell rings we move right to the other side of the table and happily run with the wolf pack.  We've tried to fight the power – it's not fun, nor is it profitable…

We remained fairly conservative last week and, as I discussed in our "Weekend Trend Spotting" post, we are more inclined to believe we are in a range that centers around 10,400 than about to break back over 10,700.  The bounce zones we predicted when we first began to sell off in January are finally being tested (red lines on above charts) but the 5% line (blue lines) are still exerting a pull and we NEED some healthy consolidation in between those blue and red lines if we are ever going to get serious about making a real move higher.

Speaking of healthy consolidation – Congrats to our own David Ristau of the Oxen Group and all the members who played along with yesterday's specially featured selection of SAH.  David nailed it in his 1pm post (also sending out a 1:06 Alert to our Members) and put us into the stock right in his target range at $9.45 and
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Phil's Favorites

How to make fragile global supply chains stronger and more sustainable

 

How to make fragile global supply chains stronger and more sustainable

Shipping containers are moved from the Fairview Cove Container Terminal In Halifax in May 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan

Courtesy off Adel Guitouni, University of Victoria; Cynthia Waltho, University of Victoria, and Mohammadreza Nematollahi, University of Victoria

...

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Digital Currencies

Ethereum: the transformation that could see it overtake bitcoin

 

Ethereum: the transformation that could see it overtake bitcoin

The crypto wars are hotting up. Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Daniel Broby, University of Strathclyde

The world’s second most valuable cryptocurrency, ether, has been touching all-time highs in price ahead of a major upgrade of its underlying platform, ethereum. Ether is currently worth in aggregate just shy of US$500 billion (£363 billion). That’s still slightly less than half that of the biggest cryptocurrency, bitcoin.

...

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Zero Hedge

Another Massive Short Squeeze Leads To Spectacular 5Y Auction

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Similar to yesterday's stellar 2Y auction, which many were worried would see a drop in demand only to be silenced by the burst in demand due to a furious scramble for physical paper on the back of a record front-end short (which we previewed earlier in the week), so a quick look at just how special the 5Y TSY had become ahead of today&...



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Politics

Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators - post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

 

Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators – post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

Nixon resigned after tapes he had fought making public incriminated him in the Watergate coverup. Bettmann/Getty

Courtesy of Shannon Bow O'Brien, The University of Texas at Austin College of Liberal Arts

The National Archives is the United States’ memory, a repository of artifacts that includes everything from half-fo...



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Biotech/COVID-19

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on 'mix-and-match' vaccine booster shots

 

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on ‘mix-and-match’ vaccine booster shots

Discuss with your doctor whether or not you need a booster – and if so, which vaccine will work best for you. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images

Courtesy of Glenn J. Rapsinski, University of Pittsburgh Health Sciences

Many Americans now have the green light to get a COVID-19 vaccine booster – and the flexibility to receive a different brand than the ori...



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Chart School

Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

Richard Wyckoff after years of...

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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.