Posts Tagged ‘FELIX ZULAUF’

ZULAUF: PREPARE FOR A CORRECTION IN ALL MARKETS

ZULAUF: PREPARE FOR A CORRECTION IN ALL MARKETS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Felix Zulauf provided some excellent macro thoughts in a recent interview with King World news. Zulauf believes gold is in a secular bull market, but that the near-term move is overextended. More specifically, Zulauf says the downside in the dollar is overdone and he foresees a dollar rally into the year-end. This will cause a correction in most assets – equities, commodities and gold. He says the correction in gold as a buying opportunity, however.

As always, Zulauf’s thoughts are a must listen.  You can see the full interview here:

Source: King World News 


Tags: , , , , , ,




Felix Zulauf is Mega-Bearish in Barron’s June Roundtable

Felix Zulauf is Mega-Bearish in Barron’s June Roundtable

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

This weekend marks the halfway check-in with the Barron’s Roundtable and I only got through the first interview with Felix Zulauf before having to put it down for some fresh air. Zulauf is mega-bearish, more so than I remember him being in either January’s magazine or in any prior issue.

Why this is troubling is that Zulauf’s been pretty damn good, better than most of the other Roundtable prognosticators, from what I remember of recent editions.

Basically, he’s saying (paraphrased):

  • The pain in European states has been peripheral, now the contagion will penetrate into the bigger, more important countries.
  • The only real shot of a stock rally is when another stimulus is attempted or when more money is printed, but these efforts will produce only a temporary bump.
  • The potential upside for equities here is only 5%, the downside looks more like 20%-ish.
  • Even gold will correct because the party got too crowded lately, but it should be bought close to $1000 an ounce when that happens.
  • US Treasuries are a good bet for the intermediate term (2 to 3 quarters).
  • Blue chip stocks should only be bought if one’s time horizon is 10 years or greater, anyone with a 1 to 3 year time horizon should watch from the stands.
  • The stock market will make a lower low than the March 2009 bottom after more attempts to stimulate fail.  He notes that we are trading at 2 times book value now (1096 vs $500) and that stocks didn’t bottom until they were trading at half of their book value during the Great Depression.

So I’m gonna go for a walk right now.

Source:

Handle With Care – sub required (Barrons) 


Tags:




GURU OUTLOOK: FELIX ZULAUF & THE SECULAR BEAR MARKET

GURU OUTLOOK: FELIX ZULAUF & THE SECULAR BEAR MARKET

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

guruThis week’s Guru Outlook brings us the brilliance of Felix Zulauf.  Zulauf is the founder of Zulauf Asset Management based in Switzerland and is well known for his appearances in Barron’s annual roundtable.   Zulauf has nailed the secular bear market downturn and 2009 upturn about as well as anyone.  More importantly, he has been nearly flawless in connecting the dots in the macro picture.  From the de-leveraging cycle that led to the downturn to the government stimulus that led to the upturn – Zulauf has been remarkably prescient.

At the 2008 roundtable Zulauf recommended investors purchase gold and short stocks due to concerns with the consumer.  He remained bearish throughout the year.  At the 2009 roundtable Zulauf said stocks would bottom at some point in the second quarter after making a new 2009 low.  He got aggressive and said stocks would rally after that.  His recommendations to purchase oil, gold and emerging markets were home runs.

Zulauf’s macro outlook hasn’t changed all that much.  He still believes the de-leveraging bear market cycle is with us and that we’re in the early stages.  Zulauf sees a number of similarities with Japan and says the consumer is in the process of long-term balance sheet repair:

“we are in the early stages of a deleveraging process, which is marked by a shift from maximizing profits to minimizing debt. It is a multiyear process. The U.S. consumer is in bad shape, and the U.K. consumer is even worse.”

But Zulauf hasn’t turned bearish in the short-term yet.  He says the markets have another 10% of upside before concerns over the end of the stimulus begin to weigh on the markets:

“Central bankers themselves are somewhat afraid of what they have been doing. Politicians are worried about public-sector debt. Therefore, the authorities will try to step away slowly from their stimulation efforts, because this policy isn’t sustainable. That’s the risk for the markets.  The U.S. stock market has enough momentum to rise another 10% or so. But the authorities will start leaning the other way as they see signs of economic growth in the first two quarters, and possibly a jump in inflation. That could push the market down.”


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

What should the House do? Part 1: Veto-proof actions... then aim for a thousand vetoes

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author, and one of the “World’s Best Futurists” — explores a myriad of topics on his lively and always interesting blog: politics, science, history, science fiction, etc. For more posts by David, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

"Economic Catastrophe": Yellow Vest Protests Cripple French Businesses; Foreign Minister Slams Trump

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The Yellow Vest protests which have gripped France for a fourth week - with an estimated 136,000 protesters marching in France yesterday - have been an "economic catastrophe" according to Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, calling the situation "a crisis" for both democracy and society, reports the BBC.

...



more from Tyler

Kimble Charting Solutions

Small caps could fall 20% from here, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

This chart looks at the Russell 2000 over the past 30-years, where it has spent the majority of that time, inside of rising channel (A).

This chart reflects that the long-term trend in small caps remains higher. Weakness this year has it testing rising support tied to the 2009 lows at (1).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- If the Russell breaks below support at (1), it could work its way over time to channel support at (2), which is currently around 20% below current prices.

Very important support test in play ...



more from Kimble C.S.

Digital Currencies

Cryptogeddon Continues - Bitcoin Plunges To 2018 Lows Amid 'Cash' Chaos

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Crypto markets have accelerated their losses again overnight with Bitcoin crashing to new 2018 lows, Ethereum back into double-digits, and Bitcoin Cash utterly devastated as lawsuits fly.

Once again a sea of red across the crypto space...

Source

Bitcoin Cash is down 40% this week alone...

...



more from Bitcoin

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for November will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for December is schedule for release at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • Data on wholesale inventories for October will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Energy Information Administration’s weekly report on natural gas stocks in underground storage is schedule for release at 10:30 a.m. ET.
  • Federal Reserve Member of the Board of Governors Lael Brainard is set to speak in Washington D.C. at 12:15 p.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the recent week will be released at 1:00 p.m. ET.
  • Data on consumer credit for October will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET.
  • ...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



more from M.T.M.

Chart School

Golds Xmas Gift

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Three things have tweaked the fundamentals for gold.

1) Bitcoin is not attracting the hot cash, unlike 2016.

2) Fed's Powell dovish switch, now less expectations for interest rate hikes in 2019.

3) China to import more goods from the USA, hence more US Dollars required.

The question now is will this move gold back to resistance before year end? 

Gann angles look good, cycle looks attractive, now we wait for volume and a price to break into new ground. Profits could be golden for Xmas.

Gann Angles



 

Cycle picture
...



more from Chart School

Biotech

World's first gene-edited babies? Premature, dangerous and irresponsible

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

World's first gene-edited babies? Premature, dangerous and irresponsible

Vchal/Shutterstock

By Joyce Harper, UCL

A scientist in China claims to have produced the world’s first genome-edited babies by altering their DNA to increase their resistance to HIV. Aside from the lack of verifiable evidence for this non peer-revie...



more from Biotech

Members' Corner

Cheri Jacobus on Politics with PSW

 

Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shared her thoughts about the current political environment with us in our August interview, and now we’re following up. 

Ilene: Is there a take-home message from election results of 2018?

Cheri: Yes. No political party can survive when it appeals to only one demographic. The GOP has ignored all of the lessons of recent elections that showed they needed to appeal to African-Americans, Latinos, and women. 

Ilene: Do you feel the Democrats ...



more from Our Members

ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



more from ValueWalk

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>