Posts Tagged ‘Financial Services’

Black Friday: Asian Markets Walloped After Dubai World

Black Friday: Asian Markets Walloped After Dubai World

mount-fuji-japan.jpg - tbiCourtesy of John Carney at Clusterstock

Asian stock markets followed yesterday’s European stock markets and US futures markets straight down.

Yesterday, European markets saw their biggest one-day losses since March. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were off 187 points.Everyone is talking about the effects of Dubai World asking creditors for an extension on its debt.

So here’s a quick whip around what happened when Asia woke up to its first day of trading following the Dubai World news.

  • Japan’s Nikkei 225: down 2.0%.
  • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200: down 2.5%.
  • New Zealand’s NZX-50: down 1.3%.
  • South Korea’s Kospi Composite: down 2.1%.

More on the impact on financials, commodities and currencies here from the Wall Street Journal.

From Times Online:  

Dubai in deep water as ripples from debt crisis spread

By

Fears of a dangerous new phase in the economic crisis swept around the globe yesterday as traders responded to the shock announcement that a debt-laden Dubai state corporation was unable to meet its interest bill. 

Shares plunged, weak currencies were battered and more than £14 billion was wiped from the value of British banks on fears that they would be left nursing new losses.

More here.>>

 


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The Warning: Brooksley Born’s Battle With Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin And Larry Summers

If you missed "The Warning," watch it here, thanks to John. – Ilene

The Warning: Brooksley Born’s Battle With Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin And Larry Summers

Courtesy of John Carney at Clusterstock

alangreenspan closeup tbiLast night PBS’s Frontline aired a new documentary called The Warning. If you missed it, you are in luck. We’ve got it right here. 

Here’s how Frontline describes the documentary.

"We didn’t truly know the dangers of the market, because it was a dark market," says Brooksley Born, the head of an obscure federal regulatory agency — the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — who not only warned of the potential for economic meltdown in the late 1990s, but also tried to convince the country’s key economic powerbrokers to take actions that could have helped avert the crisis. "They were totally opposed to it," Born says. "That puzzled me. What was it that was in this market that had to be hidden?"

In The Warning, airing Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2009, at 9 P.M. ET on PBS (check local listings), veteran FRONTLINE producer Michael Kirk (Inside the Meltdown, Breaking the Bank) unearths the hidden history of the nation’s worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. At the center of it all he finds Brooksley Born, who speaks for the first time on television about her failed campaign to regulate the secretive, multitrillion-dollar derivatives market whose crash helped trigger the financial collapse in the fall of 2008.

"I didn’t know Brooksley Born," says former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt, a member of President Clinton’s powerful Working Group on Financial Markets. "I was told that she was irascible, difficult, stubborn, unreasonable." Levitt explains how the other principals of the Working Group — former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin — convinced him that Born’s attempt to regulate the risky derivatives market could lead to financial turmoil, a conclusion he now believes was "clearly a mistake."

Born’s battle behind closed doors was epic, Kirk finds. The members of the President’s Working Group vehemently opposed regulation — especially when proposed by a Washington outsider like Born.

"I walk into Brooksley’s office one day; the blood has drained from her face," says Michael Greenberger, a former top official at the CFTC who worked closely with Born. "She’s hanging up the…
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Roubini: Forget The V-Shaped Recovery…But Get Ready For The U-Shaped Recovery!

Roubini: Forget The V-Shaped Recovery…But Get Ready For The U-Shaped Recovery!

Courtesy of John Carney and William Wei at Clusterstock

Nouriel Roubini used to be known Dr. Doom. These days, however, he insists he is a "realist."

What does that mean? Well, it means that he doesn’t think we’re in for a V shaped recovery but he doesn’t think we’re going L shaped either.

Appearing on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning, he said we’re headed for an anemic, U-shaped recovery. Why not a V? Here are his reasons:

  1. 1. Labor market is still awful, labor income and consumption down.
  2. 2. U.S. consumer is shopped out; they save more, consume less.
  3. 3. Corporate sector- glut of capacity. Utilization is 69%
  4. 4. Financial system is damaged, credit growth is limited, can’t finance residential investments
  5. 5. Fiscal stimulus will be a drag, and lead to crowding out of product spending
  6. 6. Overspending countries like U.S. are now spending less, and oversaving countries like China, Japan, Germany are not increasing their private domestic consumption to compensate for falling U.S. demand.

 

See Also:

Roubini: Stocks Will Tank When The Recovery Comes In Weak

Roubini: Equities To Fall 20%, 6 Million Jobs Lost (VIDEO)

Roubini: Nationalizing Banks Is The Best Way To Go

 


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EXCLUSIVE: Former Moody’s Insider Says “Moody’s Should Be Liquidated”

EXCLUSIVE: Former Moody’s Insider Says "Moody’s Should Be Liquidated"

Courtesy of Yael Bizouati at Clusterstock

riot police, liquidating moody's, tbiSylvain Raynes, an ex- Moody’s vice president of the ABS group, agrees with the agency’s whistleblower Eric Kolchinsky, who said that Moody’s is still issuing inflated ratings.

In an exclusive interview with The Business Insider, Raynes said that Kolchinsky is right on the money, and this pattern of behavior has been going for years at Moody’s. 

Raynes was fired from the firm for raising concerns about ratings on several deals.

“Moody’s should be liquidated right now. They need to be put out of their misery, and the CEO should resign now,” he says.

Talking about the deal Kolchinsky raised questions about, Raynes qualifies it as “bullshit” one.

"They needed a Baa2 rating to sell it--no one would buy a deal like that right now," he said.

Asked about why Moody’s-–which has come increasingly under fire in recent weeks--is still in business, Raynes says: "It’s like prostitution. It’s a crime but it’s feeding a need."

See Also:

 


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Bove: Wells Fargo Sitting On A Volcano About To Explode (WFC)

Bove: Wells Fargo Sitting On A Volcano About To Explode (WFC)

 Courtesy of Yael Bizouati at Clusterstock

 


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The International Bank Rule That Almost Destroyed The World

The International Bank Rule That Almost Destroyed The World

fiery-explosion.jpgCourtesy of John Carney at Clusterstock

Martin Jacomb gets to the heart of one of the least understood aspects of the bubble that broke the banks: why banks bought and held so much securitized debt.

Under one now-discredited theory, banks made so many toxic mortgage because they could securitize them and offload the risk to others. But this doesn’t explain very well why the banks wound up with so much of the toxic securities on their balance sheet. Banks owned almost half of all the securitized mortgages that were produced during the bubble. 

Jacomb’s FT op-ed today explains why this happened: because the capital reserve requirements rewarded turning loans into securities and more or less paid banks to hold them. In short, the rules told banks that the securities were safer and banks behaved as though they were. (Whether the rule or something else convinced the banks they were safe is another matter.)

From Jacomb:

In fact, at the heart of the present catastrophe was a singular regulatory error: the failure of the Basle international rules to impose weighty capital requirements on the super senior tranche of securitised mortgage obligations held in banks’ trading books. It was there that vast quantities of the toxic stuff accumulated. Because these securities could be held with minimal capital backing, banks thought it was all right to do so, and some built up gigantic portfolios. When these holdings turned out to be unsaleable except at a huge loss, the disaster was exposed.

People tend to let their eyes glaze over when they hear about Basel rules, assuming they are way too complicated to even bother understanding. That’s too bad. Because it’s actually quite easy to see what happened.

Under the international Basel capital requirements, a well-capitalized bank was required to hold $4 for every $100 in individual mortgages —a 4% reserve requirement. But if it held the securitized the AAA and AA tranches, the bank only had to hold $1.60 in capital. That’s a huge incentive to trade in a loan for a mortgage backed security.
 
But the capital regulations did more than just create incentives to own mortgage backed securities. They allowed banks to dramatically grow their balance sheets. The lower reserve requirement allowed banks to buy even more securities than it could make…
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Rumor Panic Has Returned To The Markets

Rumor Panic Has Returned To The Markets

insidertradingsecrets tbiCourtesy of John Carney at Clusterstock

That was breath taking.

It looks like the pure fear that gripped the markets about an hour ago and dropped the Dow by 2% is subsiding. Stocks are still lower but the nosedive has subsided.

The fact that drop came so suddenly and on the back of good economic news was a striking demonstration of just how fragile the stock market is right now. It has been quite a long time since we saw the market respond that powerfully to vague rumors.

Lots of people aren’t even sure what the rumor was. Someone might default. CNBC reported that traders were talking about a "bank default."

But we have bank failures every week. Why was this one sending traders to place sell orders? Well, some were saying that "a west coast bank" was in trouble. On the message boards, which are often populated by day trading trolls hoping to move markets, there was talk that it was Wells Fargo. Commenters on blogs pointed the finger at Citigroup.

Still others said it was a European bank on the verge of failure. One trader told us that this was a misinterpretation. It was, he said, Europeans who were whispering about a US failure. Specifically, the default on a Cerberus fund. That particular version of today’s scare story got so much traction, Cerberus was actually forced to issue a formal denial.

Regardless of the substance or accuracy of the rumor, the takeaway here is that we’re once again back to rumors trumping news to move markets. The fear trade is back on.

Previously today:

Cerberus: Stop Whispering About Us Defaulting, Dammit!

cerberusCourtesy of John Carney at Clusterstock

It looks like the rumor that killed the rally today was that some Cerberus funds were on the verge of default.

And now Cerberus Capital Management LP has been forced to formally comment on the rumor. Most companies loathe commenting on rumors. Hedge funds all the more so.

The rumor was apparently gaining traction among traders in London and Frankfurt this morning.

"There is absolutely no truth to the speculation," said Tim Price, a Cerberus managing director and spokesman for the firm, told Reuters.

Losses on private equity investments in Chrysler and GMAC seem to have prompted investors pull a reported…
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Floyd Norris Laughs At Citigroup’s Ridiculous Press Release

Floyd Norris Laughs At Citigroup’s Ridiculous Press Release (C)

Courtesy of John Carney at Clusterstock

citigroup building tbi

 


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Chris Flowers: One Hit Wonder?

On the bright side, maybe there’s a high level government job waiting for him.

Chris Flowers: One Hit Wonder?

Water lillies, flowers - the business insiderCourtesy of John Carney at Clusterstock

These days it is a pretty sure bet that Chris Flowers regrets telling investors in his private equity funds that "every single investment" would make money. His largest fund is said to be down between 60% and 70%, and some secondary market buyers assign shares in it no value at all.

William Cohan has an extraordinary piece in Fortune on the rise and fall of Flowers, the former Goldman Sachs wonderboy (once the youngest partner ever) who became one of the biggest names in banking by buying Japan’s Shinsei bank for $1 billion in 2000 and IPOing it four years later for $10 billion. But these days his reputation is under fire as the banking system tries to recover from the ruinous 2008.

"He did one great assisted transaction in Japan," one unnamed banker tells Cohan, "and off that he raised $7 billion. The great failing in private equity is to assume that you can repeat the past. I think he just assumed, for instance, he could repeat Shinsei over in Germany. Big mistake."

That person is referring to the $1.5 billion tender offer Flowers big fund made to acquire 24.9% of Hypo Real Estate Holding, a Munich-based commercial real estate lender. Flowers paid a 25% premium to where the shares were trading before the deal was announced. Just four months later Hypo had to turn to the German government for assistance. The German government ended up owning 90% of Hypo, drastically diluting Flowers’ stake. These days his investment in the bank has probably dropped in value by 87%.

But what may have hurt Flowers’s reputation even more than his investment losses is the role he played in Bank of America’s acquisition of Merrill Lynch. Flowers, while at Goldman Sachs, had helped put together the merger of NationsBank and Bank of America. In early 2008, when Merrill looked to raise capital, Flowers poured through its books but concluded the asking price was too high. But when the crisis hit on September 11, Flowers found himself back at Merrill as an adviser to Bank of America.

Flowers issued a "fairness opinion" on the deal, endorsing the 70% premium Bank of America paid for the shares of Merrill Lynch. He was repeatedly invoked in the press…
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Goldman Responds To WSJ: The Huddle Is Not For Stock Tips

Goldman Responds To WSJ: The Huddle Is Not For Stock Tips (GS)

Courtesy of John Carney at Clusterstock

Goldman responds, tbi

Goldman Sachs has issued a memo to clients blasting the Wall Street Journal’s article on the "huddles."

"A ‘huddle’ is not a forum for sharing stock or sector ‘tips,’" Goldman writes in a memo first published by Bess Levin at DealBreaker.

It seems very clear that Goldman clients--the ones not invited to huddles--must have been raising questions about why they were being left out. The most damaging aspect of the article was the possibility that some "most-favored" clients were getting information or advice that conflicted with what Goldman was telling ordinary clients got.  For example, clients coaxed to go long asset backed securities might be peeved if there was some secret Goldman huddle where top clients were told to short.

Goldman is now on the record denying that this occurs.

Here’s the memo that Bess obtained.

goldmanhuddle.jpg

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Phil's Favorites

Trump Tweeting As Much As Ever Amid Twitter Standoff

 

Trump Tweeting As Much As Ever Amid Twitter Standoff

By , Statista

President Trump has signed an executive order which aims to remove some of the legal protection given to social media companies, though it is expected to face significant legal hurdles. In a nutshell, it sets out to clarify the Communications Decency Act, handing regulators the power to file legal proceedings against social media companies for the way they police content on their platforms. Trump's decision to take action comes two days after Twitter attached a fact check to one of his tweets lambasting mail-in voting. He then threatened to close ...



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ValueWalk

Gold supply chain in recovery mode after pandemic shutdown

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The gold supply chain was largely shut down as the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world. However, things are starting to open back up, and production is beginning again. The World Gold Council studied the gold supply chain, how it was impacted by the pandemic, and how the disruption of the supply chain has affected investment demand for the yellow metal.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Disruption to the gold supply chain

The World Gold Council said the gold supply chain is entirely global because the metal is mined on evert continent except Antarctica and refined in nume...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Antigen tests for COVID-19 are fast and easy - and could solve the coronavirus testing problem despite being somewhat inaccurate

 

Antigen tests for COVID-19 are fast and easy – and could solve the coronavirus testing problem despite being somewhat inaccurate

Antibodies are incredibly good at finding the coronavirus. Antigen tests put them to work. Sergii Iaremenko/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

Courtesy of Eugene Wu, University of Richmond

In late February, I fell ill with a fever and a cough. As a biochemist who teaches a class on viruses, I’d been tracking the outbreak of...



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Zero Hedge

Ted Cruz Accuses Twitter Of Violating Sanctions Against Iran, Demands DoJ Probe

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

We've mentioned in nearly every single one of our posts about this week's dustup between the president and Twitter that the Ayato...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Indicator Suggesting A Historic Top Could Be Forming?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tech stocks have been the clear leader of the stock market recovery rally, this year and since the lows back in 2007!

But within the ranks of leadership, and an important ratio may be sending a caution message to investors.

In today’s chart, we look at the ratio of large-cap tech stocks (the Nasdaq 100 Index) to the broader tech market (the Nasdaq Composite) on a “monthly” basis.

The large-cap concentrated Nasdaq 100 (only 100 stocks) has been the clear leader for several years versus the ...



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The Technical Traders

M2 Velocity Collapses - Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

M2 Velocity is the measurement of capital circulating within the economy.  The faster capital circulates within the economy, the more that capital is being deployed within the economy to create output and opportunities for economic growth.  When M2 Velocity contracts, capital is being deployed in investments or assets that prevent that capital from further circulation within the economy – thus preventing further output and opportunity growth features.

The decline in M2 Velocity over the past 10+ years has been dramatic and consistent with the dramatic new zero US Federal Reserve interest rates initiated since just after the 2008 credit crisis market colla...



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Lee's Free Thinking

US Southern States COVID19 Cases - Let's Give Credit Where Due

 

US Southern States COVID19 Cases – Let’s Give Credit Where Due

Courtesy of  

The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.

And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...



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Chart School

Is this your local response to COVID 19

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

This is off topic, but a bit of fun!


This is the standard reaction from the control freaks.








This is the song for post lock down!







What should be made mandatory? Vaccines, hell NO! This should be mandatory: Every one taking their tops off in the sun, they do in Africa!

Guess which family gets more Vitamin D and eats less sugary carbs, TV Show



...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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