Posts Tagged ‘first fed hikes’

Dollar (UUP) Rises Most Since June, Gold (GLD) Falls Most in a Year, Traders Move Up Date for First Fed Hikes

Dollar (UUP) Rises Most Since June, Gold (GLD) Falls Most in a Year, Traders Move Up Date for First Fed Hikes

Courtesy of Trader Mark at Fund My Mutual Fund

Newspaper seller

This trio of Bloomberg headlines is exactly why I’ve been cautious about jumping in the crowded trade. (in fact we actually dumped most gold/silver & went long the dollar as an insurance policy last week in case the crowded trade finally burns down). Anyone who lived through 2007 and 2008 knows what happens when crowded trades reverse… not to mention those of us around in March 2000.  Those who continue to play the crowded trade have been big winners, and it’s the right thing to do as long as you can jump off the bubble before the hedge funds all try to exit the narrow door at exactly the same time.  That said, trends can play out MUCH longer than anticipated and one day does not change the story.  Everything that is reversing today could do a 180 degree turn next week… this market has no memory from day to day.  And all it will take is the next economic report to be underwhelming and we’re back to all the same old trades…

The irony is that the driver of these reverals -  the jobs report - is not that good once you look under the headline.  I am very curious what the Trimtabs data we cited yesterday will show for November, and how much of a discrepency between the 2 reports there is.  But we won’t harp on that… reality is not what matters in the stock market; perception of reality is all that matters.  Very few people look at details in a stock market where stocks surge or crumble 15%, 10 seconds after an earnings report headline is released…. and hundreds of billions of market cap are added / dropped in indexes seconds after an economic headline is reported.  Who has time to actually look under the hood for details anymore? HAL9000 doesn’t!

Let’s look at the 3 headlines one after the other, but I am still sticking to my "no Fed fund rate increase in all of 2010" even as traders are betting it will happen much sooner.  I think the market underestimates Ben not wanting to repeat (what is his belief) the mistake that governments and central bankers in the past…
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Phil's Favorites

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Zero Hedge

German State Finance Minister Found Dead

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The body of Thomas Schäfer - finance minister of the German state of Hesse, was found next to high-speed train tracks on Saturday morning in the town of Hochheim, located between Frankfurt and Mainz, according to DW, citing local police.

The remains of Schäfer, 54, were initially unable to be identified due to the extent of the injuries after witnesses reported the body...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The world before this coronavirus and after cannot be the same

 

The world before this coronavirus and after cannot be the same

Gettyimages

Courtesy of Ian Goldin, University of Oxford and Robert Muggah, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)

With COVID-19 infections now evident in 176 countries, the pandemic is the most significant threat to humanity since the second world war. Then, as now, confidence in international cooperation and institutions plumbed new lows.

While the on...



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Insider Scoop

'Psyched': Hawaii Considers Resolution For Shrooms, Champignon Eyes Ketamine Products

Courtesy of Benzinga

Psyched is a bi-monthly column covering the most important developments in the industry of medicinal psychedelics. We hope you follow us periodically as we report on the growth of this exciting new industry.

Champignon Brands Buys IP Company and Adds Ketamine and New Formulations To Its Portfolio

On March 19, Champignon Brands Inc. (CSE: SHRM) (OTC: SHRMF), a Canadian healt...



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The Technical Traders

These Index Charts Will Calm You Down

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I put together this video that will calm you down, because knowing where are within the stock market cycles, and the economy makes all the difference.

This is the worst time to be starting a business that’s for sure. I have talked about this is past videos and events I attended that bear markets are fantastic opportunities if you can retain your capital until late in the bear market cycle. If you can do this, you will find countless opportunities to invest money. From buying businesses, franchises, real estate, equipment, and stocks at a considerable discount that would make today’s prices look ridiculous (which they are).

Take a quick watch of this video because it shows you ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Broadest Of All Stock Indices Testing Critical Support, Says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One of the broadest indices in the states remains in a long-term bullish trend, where a critical support test is in play.

The chart looks at the Wilshire 5000 on a monthly basis over the past 35-years.

The index has spent the majority of the past three decades inside of rising channel (1). It hit the top of this multi-decade channel to start off the year, where it created a monthly bearish reversal pattern.

Weakness the past 2-months has the index testing rising support and the December 2018 lows at (2).

Joe...



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Chart School

Cycle Trading - Funny when it comes due

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Non believers of cycles become fast believers when the heat of the moment is upon them.

Just has we have birthdays, so does the market, regular cycles of time and price. The market news of the cycle turn may change each time, but the time is regular. Markets are not a random walk.


Success comes from strategy and the execution of a plan.















Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch an...

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Members' Corner

Bloody Mob Sh*t: An Interview with Lincoln's Bible

 

Bloody Mob Sh*t: An Interview with Lincoln's Bible

We talk Trump, Mogilevich, Epstein, Giuliani, Fred Trump, Roy Cohn, and more.

Courtesy of Greg Olear at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

(Originally published on Feb. 21, 20.)

...

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ValueWalk

Entrepreneurial activity and business ownership on the rise

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Indicating strong health of entrepreneurship, both entrepreneurial activity and established business ownership in the United States have trended upwards over the past 19 years, according to the 2019/2020 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Global Report, released March 3rd in Miami at the GEM Annual Meeting.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Benefit Of Entrepreneurial Activity ...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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