Posts Tagged ‘first fed hikes’

Dollar (UUP) Rises Most Since June, Gold (GLD) Falls Most in a Year, Traders Move Up Date for First Fed Hikes

Dollar (UUP) Rises Most Since June, Gold (GLD) Falls Most in a Year, Traders Move Up Date for First Fed Hikes

Courtesy of Trader Mark at Fund My Mutual Fund

Newspaper seller

This trio of Bloomberg headlines is exactly why I’ve been cautious about jumping in the crowded trade. (in fact we actually dumped most gold/silver & went long the dollar as an insurance policy last week in case the crowded trade finally burns down). Anyone who lived through 2007 and 2008 knows what happens when crowded trades reverse… not to mention those of us around in March 2000.  Those who continue to play the crowded trade have been big winners, and it’s the right thing to do as long as you can jump off the bubble before the hedge funds all try to exit the narrow door at exactly the same time.  That said, trends can play out MUCH longer than anticipated and one day does not change the story.  Everything that is reversing today could do a 180 degree turn next week… this market has no memory from day to day.  And all it will take is the next economic report to be underwhelming and we’re back to all the same old trades…

The irony is that the driver of these reverals -  the jobs report - is not that good once you look under the headline.  I am very curious what the Trimtabs data we cited yesterday will show for November, and how much of a discrepency between the 2 reports there is.  But we won’t harp on that… reality is not what matters in the stock market; perception of reality is all that matters.  Very few people look at details in a stock market where stocks surge or crumble 15%, 10 seconds after an earnings report headline is released…. and hundreds of billions of market cap are added / dropped in indexes seconds after an economic headline is reported.  Who has time to actually look under the hood for details anymore? HAL9000 doesn’t!

Let’s look at the 3 headlines one after the other, but I am still sticking to my "no Fed fund rate increase in all of 2010" even as traders are betting it will happen much sooner.  I think the market underestimates Ben not wanting to repeat (what is his belief) the mistake that governments and central bankers in the past…
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Labour's vote changes the Brexit debate beyond recognition

 

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Labour's vote changes the Brexit debate beyond recognition

Courtesy of Andy Price, Sheffield Hallam University

Even in the topsy-turvey world of Brexit politics, the first few days of the Labour Party conference were quite something: volatile hardly captures it. First, a group of party representatives spent six hours in a “compositing” meeting to produce ...



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Zero Hedge

"The Slowing Is Widespread" - US Home Price Growth Slowest In 11 Months

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The US housing market just took another hits as Case-Shiller reported that homeprices (in July) rose at the slowest pace since August last year, missing expectations notably.

20-city property values index increased 5.9% y/y (est. 6.2%), least since Aug. 2017, after rising revised 6.4%

This was the biggest miss since May 2016

Ju...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Canadian Dollar Attempting Bullish Breakout

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since 2011, the Canadian Dollar has been hit hard, losing nearly a third of its value, while creating a series of lower highs and lower lows.

After declining nearly 30% into the lows of 2016, the Canadian Dollar has been attempting to change its long-term trend as it has created a series of higher lows inside of rising channel (2).

Over the past few months, rising support has been tested several times. Currently, it is attempting to break above falling resistance at (3), inside of the rising cha...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Tuesday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Morgan Stanley raised NuVasive, Inc. (NASDAQ: NUVA) price target from $55 to $77. NuVasive shares closed at $68.40 on Monday.
  • Citigroup cut the price target for Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) from $216 to $177. Lam Research shares closed at $154.74 on Monday.
  • Stifel Nicolaus boosted the price target on Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALXN) from $130 to $136. Alexion Pharmaceuticals shares closed at $128.51 on Monday Monday.
  • ...


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Sep 23, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

More saber rattling between China and the U.S. did little to distract the market.

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump reiterated his hard-line stance on China during a news conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda and said the U.S. had “no choice” but to levy another $267 billion in duties on China. That would come on top of announced tariffs on about $200 billion in Chinese goods announced late Monday.  China responded with tariffs of 5% to 10% on $60 billion worth of U.S. products that will take effect Sept. 24, and said it may introduce more measures if the U.S. goes ahead with higher tariffs.

This seems to be the prevailing thought process, ...



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ValueWalk

The U.S. trade deficit with China is a dangerous scorecard as the mainland remains an unlikely source of U.S. profits

By Joe Quinlan. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the United States and China at loggerheads over trade, investors should be aware of the many economic ties binding the two countries. Bank of America, U.S. Trust has released a new report that explores some of the finer points of U.S.-Sino relations and the strategic, but little understood, competitive advantages for corporate America.

The seven factors described below underscore the dynamism and competitiveness of U.S. companies and may help explain the resilience of U.S. large cap stocks despite ratcheting trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

U.S.-China Checklist: Understanding Some...

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Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

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Digital Currencies

Mania to Mania

 

Mania to Mania

Courtesy of 

“Russell rarely played the stock market and had little investing experience when he put around $120,000 into bitcoin in November 2017.”

This comes from a CNN money article, Bitcoin crash: This man lost his savings when cryptocurrencies plunged. From January 2017 through the peak in early 2018, Ethereum gained 16,915%.

Any time you have something go vertical, you just know that some peopl...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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