Posts Tagged ‘FOMC Analysis 4/28’

FOMC Analysis 4/28

FOMC Analysis 4/28

Courtesy of Karl Denninger 

Tickerguy’s translation:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve.

Borrowing and spending 10% of GDP makes it appear the economy is doing reasonably well and has improved.  We continue to accumulate GDP distortions, however, and now are up to about 52%, or twice what we were going into 1931.

Growth in household spending has picked up recently but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.

That 52% distortion comes out of private demand, of course, and that shows up directly in unemployment, lack of real income growth (it’s negative when one removes transfer payments and handouts) and house prices.  No banker in their right mind will lend to someone without a job or assets, ergo, credit remains tight.

Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures is declining and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls.

Business people are not as stupid as we think you are.  Indeed, they’re putting pins in the Kewpie dolls with my name on them – daily.

Housing starts have edged up but remain at a depressed level.

Without a job you can’t buy a house, and nobody in their right mind would buy an overpriced house irrespective of income.  We did that before and conned America – they wised up.  Damn.

While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth.

Goldman Sachs’ HFT algorythm has been successful in passing shares of stock between each other and producing faux "prosperity" in the stock market.  Ain’t it grand?

Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

The stock market, on the other hand, has priced in a roaring recovery.  Oh, and that claim of "price stability"?  Don’t look at oil, eh?  No inflation there!

With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

Yes, we have record oil inventories
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Zero Hedge

Attention Broke Millennials: Roundtrip Airfare Has Never Been Lower

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Airline shares have erupted in August after federal data showed a bump in air travel volumes is now at five-month highs. 

The latest data via Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoints at U.S. airports has surged in the last ten days, now at the highest levels since mid-March. However, TSA's total traveler throughput data for the same weekday one year ago (Monday, August 10) is still down nearly 70%. 

...



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Phil's Favorites

As schools prepare to reopen during COVID-19, are the kids alright?

 

As schools prepare to reopen during COVID-19, are the kids alright?

A seven-year-old boy waits at the bus stop in Dallas, Ga., for the first day of school on Aug. 3, 2020. Canadian schools are reopening in September, but is anyone really thinking about the well-being of the children? (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

Courtesy of Sydney Chapados, Carleton University

As September approaches and schools prepare to reopen, there are concerns for children, including the risk they might spread COVID-19, ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

As schools prepare to reopen during COVID-19, are the kids alright?

 

As schools prepare to reopen during COVID-19, are the kids alright?

A seven-year-old boy waits at the bus stop in Dallas, Ga., for the first day of school on Aug. 3, 2020. Canadian schools are reopening in September, but is anyone really thinking about the well-being of the children? (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

Courtesy of Sydney Chapados, Carleton University

As September approaches and schools prepare to reopen, there are concerns for children, including the risk they might spread COVID-19, ...



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ValueWalk

Emerging Market Airports - Broyhill Asset Management

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Broyhill Asset Management investment thesis on Mexico’s airports.

The economic impacts of COVID-19 have been felt far and wide. The pandemic has indiscriminately affected both developing and emerging economies. The virus has shuttered some businesses but has also created some interesting opportunities for the long-term, value-oriented investor.

Emerging market air travel has been hard hit by the global pandemic. But air travel is key to economic development.  Airports are recognized as critical infrastructure, supporting employment and fostering growth in tourism, trade, and business.

Broyhill Asset Management’s investment thesis below, highlights how private airports carry lower risk than airlines, generate highe...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

History Says Gold Correction Could Lead to Big Rally!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Over a decade ago, Gold rallied past its 1980 highs and over $1000/oz at (1) on today’s chart.

That rise to new highs was met with a 30 percent correction at (2), followed by a blast off rally to new highs.

Is gold setting up for a repeat of its past?

Gold recently rallied past its 2011 highs and above $2000/oz. Could Gold soon turn lower for a sharp correction before another blast off toward $3000?

If so, Gold bulls should look for a pullback, before blasting higher. Stay tuned!

This article was first written fo...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Chart School

Silver Big Channel

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Big channels are the sand pit of price action. Lets review some big trends of these past months.


GLD
- Moving higher to upper solid red line channel


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XAU
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.



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SILVER
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.


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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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