Posts Tagged ‘FOSL’

Foot Locker Put Options Active As Stock Gets Stomped

Today’s tickers: FL, FOSL & AEO

FL - Foot Locker Inc. – Shares in Foot Locker are down sharply today, off 6.5% at $35.17 as of 12:30 p.m. ET, amid a down day for U.S. stocks. The stock yesterday reached a new 52-week high of $37.85. Traders bracing for shares in the name to potentially slide further ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings report expected out later this month appear to be buying up August expiry put options on the stock. The Aug $35 strike puts are the most actively traded by volume thus far in the session, with upwards of 6,200 contracts in play versus open interest of 744 put options. It looks like one strategist purchased a block of 5,000 of the $35 puts during the first hour of the trading day at a premium of $0.45 each. The bearish, or perhaps protective, stance makes money at expiration next week in the event that FL shares decline another 1.7% to settle below the breakeven point on the downside at $34.55. In the money put options are also attracting volume, with around 2,900 of the Aug $36 strike puts purchased in the early going for an average premium of $0.95 apiece. Overall options volume on Foot Locker in excess of 15,000 contracts this afternoon is well above the stock’s average daily volume of around 2,300 contracts.

FOSL - Fossil Group, Inc. – Front month calls on watch and accessories maker, Fossil Group, are changing hands at a clip today, with shares in the name up better than 18% at a new 52-week high of $127.32 as of 12:15 p.m. in New York. The stock jumped after the company posted better than expected second-quarter earnings and raised its estimates for full year earnings and revenue. Shares earlier in the session reached $129.25,…
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Recovery Play Initiated In Leap Wireless LEAPs As Shares Extend Losses

 

Today’s tickers: LEAP, TUMI & FOSL

LEAP - Leap Wireless International, Inc. – The wireless carrier’s shares have been hard-hit in recent months, down more than 50% off the 2012 high of $11.29 as of the close of trading on Monday. The stock plunged another 22% this morning to touch down at a new 52-week low of $4.28 after the company reported a wider-than-expected second-quarter loss and revealed net subscriber losses of around 289,000 customers. Options on Leap Wireless International are more active than usual today, and it looks like one strategist is positioning to benefit from a recovery in the shares over the long term. Speculation the company may be a takeover target for one of the larger carriers has sparked sharp rallies in Leap’s shares in the past; perhaps the bull call spread initiated in the January 2014 expiry this morning is preparing to benefit from a potential repeat performance in the future. Regardless of the impetus for the position, the parameters appear to be as follows. The trader purchased a roughly 2,500-lot Jan. 2014 $5.0/$10 call spread at an average net premium of $1.10 per contract. Profits are available on the trade in the event LEAP shares surge 40% to top the average breakeven price of $6.10 at expiration. The maximum payoff on the position amounts to $3.90 per contract should the stock more than double to settle above $10.00 by expiration in January 2014.

TUMI - Tumi Holdings, Inc. – Shares in the provider of premium travel products and luggage jumped more than 22% today to $22.74 after the company posted better-than-expected earnings and sales for the second quarter. Pre-earnings bullish bets, including a block of 2,692 Aug. $20 call options purchased for a premium of $0.65 each yesterday morning, have roughly tripled in value overnight given the current premium on the $20 calls of $2.35 as of midday in New York. The stock still trades at a 14% discount to…
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Bears Connect With LinkedIn Puts As Shares Decline

 

Today’s tickers: LNKD, XRT & FOSL

LNKD - LinkedIn Corp. – Activity in far out-of-the-money put options on the social networking site for professionals suggests some traders fear the price of the underlying could drop substantially from current levels. Shares in LNKD closed last week at $117.31, up nearly 80.0% year-to-date at the highest closing price since the IPO, following the release of better-than-expect first-quarter earnings. However, near-term bearish positions initiated this morning look for declines in the near term, while longer-term put purchases paint a far gloomier picture for the shares during the next few months. LinkedIn’s shares are off their lows of the session, but remain firmly in the red, down 4.7% at $106.24 as of 12:25 p.m. in New York. Weekly put buyers snapped up puts at the May $100 and $95 strikes, shelling out an average premium of $1.24 and $0.75, respectively, for more than 500 contracts at each strike. Traders may profit at the end of the week if shares in LinkedIn continue to sink. Meanwhile, the purchase of more than 1,650 puts at the July $70 strike for an average premium of $1.22 apiece look for shares to plunge more than 35.0% this summer. Traders long the $70 strike puts make money if shares in LNKD settle below the effective breakeven price of $68.78 at July expiration.

XRT - SPDR S&P Retail ETF – Retail stocks may continue to sell off, by the looks of massive stakes taken in XRT put options this morning. Shares in the equal-weighted retail ETF are down 1.5% at $59.45 this afternoon as stocks across the board sink. The two largest trades in XRT options today are in the May $56 put, with a total of 55,000 contracts purchased in two blocks at a premium of $0.35…
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Bearish Spread Preps For Fossil Pullback

 

Today’s tickers: FOSL, MS & VMED

FOSL - Fossil, Inc. – A sizable bearish spread initiated in watchmaker, Fossil, Inc., this morning suggests it may be the right time to pick up some downside protection on the stock ahead of the Company’s first-quarter earnings report due out Tuesday before the open. Shares in Fossil are currently down 1.15% at $127.71 as of 11:15 am in New York. The ratio put spread could be an outright bearish stance on the stock, or may be a hedge to protect the value of a long position in the underlying. Shares in Fossil are up big time year-to-date, having soared approximately 60.0% in the first four months of the year. Downside protection to lock in some of the stock’s gains may prove a prudent move should a disappointing report on Tuesday morning send shares sharply lower. It looks like one trader purchased 1,125 puts at the May $120 strike for a premium of $3.80 each and sold 2,250 puts at the lower May $105 strike at a premium of $0.90 apiece. Net premium paid to establish the spread amounts to $2.00 per contract, with profits – or downside protection – available in the event that shares drop 7.6% to breach the effective breakeven price of $118.00. Maximum potential profits of $13.00 accrue to the downside if the watchmaker’s shares plunge 17.8% to settle at $105.00 at expiration in less than two weeks. Fossil’s shares last traded below $105.00 back in February.

MS - Morgan Stanley – Selling of weekly call and put options on Morgan Stanley this morning suggests shares in the financial services firm may luff around the $16.00 level through expiration. Shares are currently up 1.0% on the day at $16.16 just before midday in New York. It’s been a…
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Fall-Back Thursday – Time To Get Real?

Do you REALLY think this will go on forever?

On the right is the AAPL quarterly chart but it could also be the quarterly chart of SHLD, NFLX, FOSL, STX or PCLN (Bespoke Chart), all of whom are up more than AAPL (which is up 50%) in 2012.  We've discussed PCLN as one of my favorite shorts and we had a good discussion in Member chat last night comparing PCLN to EXPE, who drop the same amount of cash to the bottom line (before buybacks and dividends) but have just 1/8th of the market cap of PCLN.   

Sure you can say that PCLN is twice as good as EXPE (it isn't, but you can say it) but can you say it's 4 times as good?  How about 8 times?  EXPE nets $500M a year – 8 times that is $4Bn – more money than the entire travel sector makes!  How, exactly, will PCLN grow into that valuation?  Eliminate all competition and then grow the sector by 50%?  Well, that's pretty much what AAPL did but how many AAPLs can you have in one market?  

THAT is the problem my friends.  Aside from the macro concerns we discussed in yesterday's post, we have a sort of value mania that is driven by the very real success of one company, much the way we had a dot com boom in the late 90s driven by the very real success of just a few companies.  Back then, everyone was the next QCOM, YHOO, MSFT, CSCO – whichever category you were supposed to be the best.  Qualcomm, in fact, was the best performing tech stock of 1999, gaining 2,619% that year and finishing right about $100.  By the end of July, 2002, they were trading at $10 but hey, what a ride!  

In fact, here's the CNet story from Dec 29th, 1999 titled "Qualcomm Jumps on $1,000 Price Target" and coming on the heels of "Qualcomm to offer Net2Phone services in Eudora" it's no wonder people were super-excited!  AMZN was "only" up 25% that year to $100 but Jeff Bezos was Time's Man of the Year and yes, their business has been growing at an amazing rate for the past 12 years and they have crushed their competition and dominated the sector – and gained less than 6%…
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Retail Options In Focus

Today’s tickers: DSW, BKS & FOSL

DSW - DSW Inc. – Shares in the footwear retailer are up 3.05% in early-afternoon trade to stand at $43.19, and options activity in the April expiry calls and puts suggests the stock may continue to march higher during the next four months. One strategist appears to have sold put options on DSW to offset the cost of buying a bull call spread, a position that yields maximum possible profits in the event of a more than 15.0% rally in the shares. The investor likely sold roughly 400 puts at the April $38 strike in order to purchase a roughly 400-lot April $43/$50 call spread, done at an average net credit of $0.40 per contract. The trader walks away with the net credit in hand as long as DSW’s shares exceed $38.00 at expiration day in April. Additional gains accumulate on the upside above the breakeven price of $43.00, with maximum potential profits of $7.40 per contract – including the $0.40 net credit – available on the trade if the stock soars 15.8% to top $50.00 at expiration in April. Shares in DSW last traded above $50.00 in mid-November 2011.

BKS - Barnes & Noble, Inc. – Bookseller Barnes & Noble forecast a wider-than-expected fiscal 2012 loss in a statement today, pushing shares in the name down as much as 31.0% to an intraday low of $9.35, and driving up demand for BKS options. Put options in the front month are most active, but it appears much of the volume was generated by sellers. Investors selling puts on the name receive premium in exchange for bearing the risk that the bookseller’s shares continue to hemorrhage in the next couple of weeks to January expiration. The Jan. $7.5, $9.0 and $10 strike put options attracted the heaviest volume. One block…
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Weak Weekly Wrap-Up – Charting Uncertain Waters

I’m just doing a quick wrap-up this week because, surprisingly, it MIGHT be time for a new Buy List!

I had said to Members on Cinco de Mayo, in our 5% Rule Review, that if we broke below 1,155 we would retrace all the way to 1,100 with our 5% Rule resistance points around 1,100 at 1,155, 1,114, 1,100, 1,073 and 1,045.   We actually spiked as low as 1,066 on Thursday but finished the week at a very sad 1,110 as we watched for that "weak bounce" zone to be broken all day.  This does not bode technically well for the markets next week but I told Members we would have to give the markets a pass for the day.  Based on the uncertainty of the weekend, we can’t expect a lot of capital commitments ahead of the EU decision.  After all, we’re in cash – why shouldn’t other smart funds be too?

When I predicted we’d hit 1,000 on Wednesday, I did not think it would be on Thursday!  The markets are now negative for the year and the S&P has spiked almost to the Feb low of 1,044 (and our lowest close was 1,056).  That’s right, these 5% Rule numbers are the SAME ones we used back then and it’s the same series we used to measure our winter run at the end of last year.  We expect a bounce here, hopefully at least a test of 1,155 on a relief rally if Greece is "fixed" yet again on Monday but we’re not going to be too impressed until we’re over that line. 

Still that means it’s time to at least lay out a new Watch List, which is the prelude to a Buy List – giving us a list of stocks we’d like to get into at lower prices.  Our last Member Watch List was back in December and by Feb 6th we had our famous Buy List, which we triggered at Dow 10,058 for a very successful run through March 18th ("Bye Bye Buy List!"), when we closed 2/3 of the positions and we have since cashed out the rest as I got more and more worried about the rally, finally calling for all cash last week.  

Speaking of last week, for those of you who say I don’t pick enough straight stocks – I listed 33 short trade ideas from my unofficial "Sell Listlast Friday (4/30) when the Dow was way up at 11,167…
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GDWheee Friday – Could be a Wild Ride!

Attention ladies and gentlemen:

The stock market will soon be leaving the station, please secure all personal items, pull down the safety bar (our Disaster Hedges) and keep all body parts inside ride at all times.  Well you know you can follow all of the safety instructions and STILL get smacked in the face with a black swan (like our friend Fabio, pictured here) which is why we elected to get back to cash ahead of this report.  The markets were just too insane this week and who the heck knows if Europe will still be a Union on Monday or what the GDP number is going to be (but I do think it's a miss). 

Since our biggest weekend fear is financial panic in Europe, our cash US dollars will become more valuable in a crisis and if the market drops, all the better as we can ride back in and do some bargain hunting.  If the market takes off on good GDP and Greece is "fixed" and Spain is "fixed" and Portugal and Ireland are not really a problem (especially for MS and JPM) and the CRIMINAL charges against Goldman look beatable and and the Financial Reform Bill doesn't disrupt the market with a disorderly breakup of the big banks and the Bank of International Settlements Report continues to be ignored and the run on the Greek banks doesn't spread to other STUPID counties – well, then we can BUYBUYBUY because, if all this doesn't matter, then it's very likely that the entire planet Earth could explode but Wall Street will keep ticking higher.

Yep, I can't wait to ride this baby mindlessly higher!  After all, what can go wrong?  BIDU is ONLY $710 a share, BLK is $190, CMP is $76, GOLD is $84, BUCY is $65, FAST is $56, MMM is $90, FOSL $40, F $13.50, DECK $149, SHOO $55, TPX $35, LZB $14, CTB $22, NOG $16, CEO $176, FTI $75, CLB $150, CIB $46, BBD $19, TD $75, BCA $45, BAP $87, ITUB $22, EDU $94, WYNN $93, FFIV $72, CY $14, CREE $77, UPS $70, UNP $78… 

These were stocks I was looking at last week, when I told members I thought it was easier to construct a Sell List than our usual…
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Phil's Favorites

"Make It Stop"

 

“Make It Stop”

Courtesy of 

Every time the stock market falls, no really, every single time, a friend of mine texts me the same thing: “Make it stop.” And every time I tell him the same thing- “You should hope stocks go a lot lower.”

For people still contributing to their retirement accounts, they shouldn’t fear lower prices, they should pray for them.

Let’s look at a real world hypothetical example.

I sorted all twenty-year rolling returns for the S&P 500 and plucked returns near the median. Stocks had nearly identical compound annual growth rates in the ...



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Zero Hedge

The "Trade War" Is Over, Trump Just Doesn't Realize It Yet!

Courtesy of Lance Roberts, RealInvestmentAdvice.com

On Tuesday, the markets bid higher following a statement from the U.S. Trade Representative’s office that tariffs will commence on September 1st, but that some products will be delayed until Dec. 15:

“…some tariffs will take effect on Sept. 1 as planned, ‘certain products are being removed from the tariff list based on health, safety, national security and other factors and will not face additional tariffs of 10 percent. Further, as part of USTR’s public comment and hearing process, it was determined that the tariff should be delayed to December 15 for certain articles.”

The only part the algos heard w...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Transports 10-Year Bullish Trend Being Tested! Rally Time or Breakdown?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the DJ Transportation Index presenting a rare buying opportunity? The broad market most likely hopes so!

Transports have spent the majority of the past decade creating a series of higher lows. This pattern has created rising channel (1), which started back in 2009.

Transports have created a bearish divergence to the S&P 500 over the past 20-months, as they have created lower highs, while the S&P has done the exact opposite.

The softness in Transports has the testing its May lows and the 10-year rising channel to start out the week at (2). While testing...



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Insider Scoop

Piper Jaffray: AMD 'More Or Less Fully Valued'

Courtesy of Benzinga

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) has an “exciting” product portfolio, but the recent rise in the semiconductor company’s share price is keeping Piper Jaffray on the sidelines.

The Analyst

Harsh Kumar started coverage of Advanced Micro Devices with a Neutral rating and $33 p...



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The Technical Traders

August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow - Are You Ready?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our August 19 breakdown prediction from
months ago has really taken root with many of our followers and readers.  We’ve been getting emails and messages from
hundreds of our followers asking for updates regarding this prediction.  Well, here is the last update before the
August 19th date (tomorrow) and we hope you have been taking our
research to heart. 

First, we believe the August 19 breakdown
date will be the start of something that could last for more than 5 to 12+
months.  So, please understand that our
predicted date is not a make-or-break type of scenario for traders.  It means that we believe this date...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Long Term Stock Market Chart Perspective

Courtesy of Lee Adler

After a big day like yesterday, I like to get a little long term stock market chart perspective. (Yes, this stilted verbiage is for search engine optimization ).

We do that with a monthly bar chart, which I update when relevant in Lee Adler’s Technical Trader. That’s in addition to the regular daily bar/cycle charts covering the past year, and a weekly cycle chart covering the past 4 years.

I wrote on July 14, in reference to the price and indicator patterns on the weekly chart:

The market has overshot a 3-4 year cycle projection in terms of both price and time. There are no long term projections. A 4 year cycle high is ideally due now. A 4 ye...



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Chart School

Bitcoin 2019 fractal with Gold 2013

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Funny how price action patterns repeat, double tops, head and shoulders. These are simply market fractals of supply and demand.

More from RTT Tv

Ref: US Crypto Holders Only Have a Few Days to Reply to the IRS 6173 Letter

Today's news from the US IRS has been blamed for the recent price slump, yet the bitcoin fractal like the gold fractal suggest the market players have set bitcoin up for a slump to $9000 USD long before the IRS news hit the wire.

Get the impression some market players missed out on the b...

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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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