Posts Tagged ‘Fourth Turning’

TWO DECADES OF GREED – THE UNRAVELING

TWO DECADES OF GREED – THE UNRAVELING 

Courtesy of Jim Quinn at The Burning Platform 

We are currently in the midst of a Fourth Turning. This twenty year Crisis began during the 2005 – 2008 timeframe with the collapse of the housing bubble and subsequent repercussions on the worldwide financial system. It is progressing as expected, with the financial crisis deepening and leading to tensions across the world. It will eventually morph into military conflict, as all prior Fourth Turnings have. The progression from High to Awakening through the Unraveling took from 1946 until 2006. The most treacherous period of the Saeculm is upon us. The intensity of a Crisis is very much dependent upon how a country and its citizens prepare for the Crisis during the final years of the Unraveling. The last Unraveling period in U.S. history from 1984 through 2005 was symbolized by Boomer greed, materialism, debt and selfishness. When Michael Lewis graduated from Princeton University in 1985 and joined Salomon Brothers, I’m sure he didn’t realize that he would end up book-ending the Unraveling period in his two best-selling books about Wall Street.

In his latest book, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, Lewis seems bewildered by the fact that his first book Liar’s Poker, written in 1989,  didn’t dissuade college students from pursuing careers on Wall Street. If Lewis had read The Fourth Turning by Strauss & Howe when it was published in 1997, he would have understood why the people on Wall Street couldn’t change. The generations were just acting out their part in a grand never ending cycle. Lewis explains what he thought would happen:

“I stumbled into a job at Salomon Brothers in 1985 and stumbled out much richer three years later, and even though I wrote a book about the experience, the whole thing still strikes me as preposterous—which is one of the reasons the money was so easy to walk away from. I figured the situation was unsustainable. Sooner rather than later, someone was going to identify me, along with a lot of people more or less like me, as a fraud. Sooner rather than later, there would come a Great Reckoning when Wall Street would wake up and hundreds if not thousands of young people like me, who had no business making huge bets with other people’s money, would be expelled from finance.”

Michael…
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Recession

 

Recession

Courtesy of 

The bad news is piling up. The recession that people are looking for may already be here.

We heard about inventory buildup at Target and Walmart last week and the stocks responded with their worst day since…1987.  Those were not isolated incidents. This week we heard the same from Kohl’s and Abercrombie, whose stock is cratering 30% on the news.

In other news, Snap just warned of an imminent slowdown.

From The WSJ :

“In a surprise announcement, Snap Inc., the ...



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Politics

The big exodus of Ukrainian refugees isn't an accident - it's part of Putin's plan to destabilize Europe

 

The big exodus of Ukrainian refugees isn’t an accident – it’s part of Putin’s plan to destabilize Europe

Ukrainians fleeing the war walk toward a train in Krakow to bring them to Berlin on March 15, 2022. Omar Marques/Getty Images

Courtesy of Mark A. Grey, University of Northern Iowa

More than 6.3 million Ukrainians have fled their country since Russia first invaded in late February 2022.

The European Union h...



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Zero Hedge

JPMorgan Trading Desk Commentary: "The Supply On Our Desk Is Starting To Dissipate"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

After another market rollercoaster session, here are some thoughts from JPMorgan's trading desk, starting with Ron Adler, TMT [Trend-Momentum-Trendline] trader, who is seeing what may be the start of a reversal in bearish sentiment in the TMT space...

The transcript on many conversations goes like this: “So I know WHY X is down, but WHY is X down SO MUCH?”

The supply on our desk is starting to dissipate. Some are trying to pick a bottom in names like SNAP, FB, and UBER...but that strategy has been futile.

  • INTERNET: IT FEELS LIKE YOU CAN’T OWN ANYTHING IN INTERNET RIGHT NOW – CHANGE MY MIND....
  • E-COMMERCE: If AMZN, WMT and TGT are having issues, I don’t think ...


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ValueWalk

The Shocks Which Have Ripped Through The UK Economy During The Queen's 70 Year Reign

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

  • 1956 – The Suez canal crisis in 1956 led to an economic crisis and capital flight
  • 1975 – Consumer price inflation reached 24% during the oil crisis
  • 1984 – Unemployment soared to 11.9% amid miners’ strike
  • 1987  – FTSE All Share drops 22% on Black Monday
  • 2001 – Dotcom bubble burst and markets fall by more than 50% over 3 years
  • 2008 – Financial crisis hits with housing market falling 15% by February 2009
  • 2016 – The vote for Brexit sees the pound fall sharply on currency markets
  • 2000 – The pandemic sees record fall in output, with GDP falling 19.6%
  • ...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Can Treasury Bonds (TLT) Reverse Higher From Historic Oversold Level?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s been an ugly couple of year for US Treasury Bonds. T-bond prices have dropped sharply as yields have risen.

This has been an added pressure on retirement portfolios as treasury bonds are no longer trading like a conservative asset.

Time for a bounce in T-bonds?

Today, we take a look at the long-term “monthly” chart of the 20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF (TLT).

As you can see, 2 years ago bonds peaked and formed a historic bearish reversal pattern at the highest momentum reading ever.

...

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Chart School

Powell has a debt problem

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The last time the US entertained debt this high (relative to GDP) was post World War 2.


The prior US high debt years were between 1936 and 1954, back then the public understood why the high debt existed (WW2) and why the public had to suffer high inflation to allow deflation of the debt to a manageable level. This question was not as political as it is today.   


Current US debt levels are the result of 'end of empire' spending, simply spending on steroids beyond one means. The FED needs inflation for the same reason as the post WW2 period to deflate away the debt.


The current political talk of 'fight inflation' will be short lived and the FED will be forced to accept higher inflation levels over the 2% (say b...

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Biotech/COVID-19

What is monkeypox? A microbiologist explains what's known about this smallpox cousin

 

What is monkeypox? A microbiologist explains what’s known about this smallpox cousin

Monkeypox causes lesions that resemble pus-filled blisters, which eventually scab over. CDC/Getty Images

Courtesy of Rodney E. Rohde, Texas State University

On May 18, 2022, Massachusetts health officials and the Centers for Disease Control ...



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Digital Currencies

Stablecoin volatility shows an urgent need for regulation to protect consumers

 

Stablecoin volatility shows an urgent need for regulation to protect consumers

Shutterstock/David Sandron

Courtesy of Matthew Shillito, University of Liverpool

Some cryptocurrencies have always been fairly volatile, with values soaring or plunging within a short space of time. So for the more cautious investor, “stablecoins” were considered the sensible place to go. As the name implies, they are designed to be a steadier and safer bet.

At the moment though, that stability is proving hard to find. The value of o...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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