Posts Tagged ‘fractal patterns’

Scientific Proof That High Frequency Trading Induces Adverse Changes In Market Microstructure And Dynamics, And Puts Market Fairness Under Question

Scientific Proof That High Frequency Trading Induces Adverse Changes In Market Microstructure And Dynamics, And Puts Market Fairness Under Question

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Up until recently, any debate between proponents and opponents of High Frequency Trading would typically be represented by heated debates of high conviction on either side, with discussions rapidly deteriorating into ad hominem attacks and the producer screaming ‘cut to commercial’ to prevent fistfights. Luckily, all this is about to change. In a research paper by Reginald Smith of the Bouchet Franklin Institute in Rochester titled "Is high-frequency trading inducing changes in market microstructure and dynamics?" the author finds that he "can clearly demonstrate that HFT is having an increasingly large impact on the microstructure of equity trading dynamics. Traded value, and by extension trading volume, fluctuations are starting to show self-similarity at increasingly shorter timescales. Values which were once only present on the orders of several hours or days are now commonplace in the timescale of  seconds or minutes. It is important that the trading algorithms of HFT traders, as well as those who seek to understand, improve, or regulate HFT realize that the overall structure of trading is influenced in a measurable manner by HFT and that Gaussian noise  models of short term trading volume fluctuations likely are increasingly inapplicable."

In other words, the author finds ample evidence that during the past decade (on the NASDAQ) and especially since the 2005 revision of Reg NMS (on the NYSE), stock trading increasingly demonstrates "self similar" fractal patterns, resulting in volatility surges, recursive feedback loops, and a market structure which is increasingly becoming a product of the actual trading mechanism. In the process, as demonstrated by a Hurst Exponent gravitating increasingly further away from 0.5 (i.e., Brown Noise territory), the Markov Process nature of stock trading is put under question, and thus the whole premise of an efficient market has to be reevaluated. Simply said: HFT has been shown to affect the fairness of trading.

The paper is, needless to say, a must read for everyone who has an even passing interest in stock trading and market regulation (alas, yes, that would mean the SEC, and Congress). And while one of the key qualities of the paper is presenting the history and implications of High Frequency Trading, and its rise to market dominance primarily as a result of the revision…
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Zero Hedge

Did Buffett Just Bet Against The US? Berkshire Buys Barrick Gold, Dumps Goldman

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

This is going to get awkward.

Berkshire Hathaway's latest 13F just dropped and contained inside is a signal that none other than the Oracle Of Omaha appears to now be quietly betting against The United States.

Why? Because for years - in fact for as long we can remember - Warren Buffet has denigrated gold:

In a speech delivered at Harvard in 1998, Buffett said:

&ldq...



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ValueWalk

Coronavirus stimulus checks talks fall apart as Congress goes on vacation

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Our predictions regarding the coronavirus stimulus checks and related relief appears to be correct. Congress has abdicated its duty and gone on vacation while Americans await unemployment and other related stimulus programs. While the action is hard to fathom, there is a good chance the market will crash or other pressure will bring the sides together sooner than the current schedule of September 8th.

Prior coverage

The two sides continue to drift apart on the bill over Coronavirus stimulus checks and relief legislation. From a game theory perspective, I believe the Democrats are in the driver’s seat. If the bill is not passed, the economy will crash further and lead to certain electoral losses for Trump and the GOP. Therefore, the Democrats have little incentive to push for a speedy passage of the bill.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Rapid screening tests that prioritize speed over accuracy could be key to ending the coronavirus pandemic

 

Rapid screening tests that prioritize speed over accuracy could be key to ending the coronavirus pandemic

Broad and frequent screening could catch coronavirus cases before they can spread to others. Vaidas Bucys/EyeEm via Getty Images

Courtesy of Zoë McLaren, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

Broad access to testing is one of the most powerful tools to keep the COVID-19 pande...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Rapid screening tests that prioritize speed over accuracy could be key to ending the coronavirus pandemic

 

Rapid screening tests that prioritize speed over accuracy could be key to ending the coronavirus pandemic

Broad and frequent screening could catch coronavirus cases before they can spread to others. Vaidas Bucys/EyeEm via Getty Images

Courtesy of Zoë McLaren, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

Broad access to testing is one of the most powerful tools to keep the COVID-19 pande...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Could Be Creating Large Reversal Pattern, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could Silver prices from 30-years ago be influencing price action this month? Joe Friday suggests it is possible.

This chart looks at Silver Futures on a monthly basis over the past 40-years. Fibonacci levels were applied to the 1980 highs ($50) and 1991 lows ($.350) in Silver.

The 50% retracement levels of the 1980 high/1991 low came into play as support for a few months at each (1). Once this support broke, Silver fell another 50%.

The impressive rally over the past 8-weeks has Silver testing the 50% retracement level as potential...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Chart School

Silver Big Channel

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Big channels are the sand pit of price action. Lets review some big trends of these past months.


GLD
- Moving higher to upper solid red line channel


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.






XAU
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.



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SILVER
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image i...



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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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