Posts Tagged ‘full-time jobs’

Jobs Decrease by 125,000, Rise by 100,000 Excluding Census; Unemployment Rate Drops to 9.5%; A Look at the Details

Jobs Decrease by 125,000, Rise by 100,000 Excluding Census; Unemployment Rate Drops to 9.5%; A Look at the Details

Courtesy of Mish 

This morning the BLS reported a decrease of 125,000 jobs. However, that reflects a decrease 225,000 temporary census workers. Last month there was an increase of 411,000 temporary census workers. Next month will also likely be negative due to the dismissal of more temporary workers.

Excluding the census effect, the economy added 100,000 jobs but interestingly 20,500 of them were private temporary jobs. Temporary jobs have become a way of life.

Excluding the census effect, government added 17,000 jobs. That is going to change in the coming months (possibly dramatically depending on Congressional stimulus actions) as states are forced to layoff workers for budgetary reasons.

That will be a good thing because Firing Public Union Workers Creates Jobs. Unfortunately, politicians and Keynesian clown economists will not see it that way.

Hidden beneath the surface the BLS Black Box – Birth Death Model added 145,000 jobs.

However, as I have pointed out many times before, the Birth/Death numbers cannot be subtracted straight up to get a raw number. It contributed to this month’s employment total for sure, but the BLS will not disclose by how much.

On the whole, this was an OK jobs report (depending on your expectations), yet perhaps as good as it gets for a while.

The unemployment rate dropped only because of a declining participation rate. Last month the number of unemployed was 15 million. This month it was 14.6 million. Clearly the economy did not add 400,000 jobs.

The drop in participation rate was not that surprising because (as I expected) some of the long-term unemployed stopped looking jobs, or opted for retirement.

Nonetheless, I still do not think the top in the unemployment rate is in and expect it may rise substantially later this year as the recovery heads into a coma and states are forced to cut back workers.

Employment and Recessions

Calculated risk has a great chart showing the effects of census hiring as well as the extremely weak hiring in this recovery.

click on chart for sharper image

The dotted lines tell the real story about how pathetic a jobs recovery this has been. Bear in mind it has taken $trillions in stimulus to produce this.

June 2010 Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics…
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Phil's Favorites

Jumping the SPAC

 

Jumping the SPAC

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice, @profgalloway

Note: I was not under influence of Zacapa or edibles writing this one … so it’s wonky.  Oh well, my blog.

A perfect storm may be brewing: tech, software as a service (SaaS), and climate change. My podcast co-host, Kara Swisher, believes the first trillionaire will be an entrepreneur who addresses climate change. It’s not unthinkable, as Elon Musk is already 15% of the way there — to a trillion in wealth, not solving climate change. I’m more skeptical and believe the only entities that can begin to reverse climate change are the EU and the governmen...



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Zero Hedge

The Inelastic Market Hypothesis: Exposing The Fallacy Of Fun-Durr-Mentals

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

If you take a quick look at returns for the S&P 500 over the last few years, it is easy to be impressed with how lucrative stocks can be. Total returns above 31% in 2019, 18% in 2020, and 21% year-to-date (as of 8/31) can make a difference. Unfortunately, the levitation at the end of this summer hardly stands out in this context. Instead, it is just more of the same.

When stocks are rolling along thi...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Delta is tempting us to trade lives for freedoms - a choice it had looked like we wouldn't have to make

 

Delta is tempting us to trade lives for freedoms — a choice it had looked like we wouldn’t have to make

shutter_o/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Last year COVID-19 seemed simple. It was horrific, but the arguments about what to do were fairly straightforward.

On one side were people rightly horrified by its rapid spread who wanted us to stay at home and stay away from school and work and socialising in order to save lives.

On the other side were people concerned about the costs of those measures — to jobs, to educati...



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Politics

Political orientation predicts science denial - here's what that means for getting Americans vaccinated against COVID-19

 

Political orientation predicts science denial – here’s what that means for getting Americans vaccinated against COVID-19

Protesters at an anti-vaccine rally in Pennsylvania in August 2021. Weaver/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Courtesy of Adrian Bardon, Wake Forest University

Vaccine refusal is a major reason COVID-19 infections continue to surge in the U.S. Safe and effective vaccines have been available for months, b...



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Digital Currencies

Animal Spirits: Crypto's Gateway Drug

 

Animal Spirits: Crypto’s Gateway Drug

Courtesy of Michael Batnick

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts

On today’s show we discuss:

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Chart School

Gold and Silver Volume Waves Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The sign says it all. The professionals want the public to focus on the words, to scare out the weak hands, but the color of the sign underlines the value in a money printing world, its gold stupid.

Point and figure (PnF) charts draw price waves with the sum of volume per wave. PnF charts high light true accumulation underneath price action. This is why Richard Wyckoff favored PnF charts.    

In the charts below we see price moving sideways to down, yet volume on up waves are greater than volume on down waves. At the moment there is no heavy selling on down waves. Or in other words price is being moved down at a low volume expense to allow accumulation at a lower price.

This action represents professionals building their...

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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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