Posts Tagged
‘Gas’
by ilene - October 2nd, 2010 2:07 pm
Courtesy of John Mauldin at Investors’ Insights
Oil at $125 a Barrel, Gasoline at $5
David Rosenberg and Capacity Utilization
Gary Shilling: Commercial Real Estate and Employment
The Morality of Chinese Growth
Another Birthday? What Happened to My Year?
Athens and the Barefoot Ranch
This week I am at a conference in Houston. I must confess that I don’t attend many of the sessions at most conferences where I speak. But today, the guys at Streettalk Advisors have such a great lineup that I am there for every session. But it’s Friday and I need to write. The solution? This week you get a "best of" letter. The best ideas I’ve heard and the best charts I’ve seen at this conference. Then we close with two short but very thoughtful essays from Charles Gave and Arthur Kroeber of GaveKal on "The Morality of Chinese Growth." Lots of charts and something to make you think. Should be a good letter.
Oil at $125 a Barrel, Gasoline at $5
John Hofmeister is the former president of Shell Oil and now CEO of the public-policy group Citizens for Affordable Energy. He paints a very stark (even bleak, as he gets further into the speech) picture of the future of energy production in the US unless we change our current policies. First, because of the after effects of the moratorium. It is his belief that the drilling moratorium will effectively still be in place until at least the middle of 2012. There won’t even be new rules until the end of 2011, and then the lawsuits start.
Gulf oil production will be down by up to 1 million barrels a day. Imported oil is now 67% of oil usage but will go to 75% by 2012. He thinks crude oil will be up to $125 and gasoline between $4-$5 at the pump. And it will only get worse.
He describes the problem with the electricity from coal production. The average coal plant is 38 years old, with a planned-for life of 50 years. Our energy production capability is rapidly aging, and we are not updating it fast enough.
He argues that the fight between the right and the left has given us 37 years without a realistic energy policy, as policy gets driven by two-year political cycles but good energy planning takes decades. There…
Tags: CHINA, Commercial Real Estate, Economy, Employment, Gas, growth, John Mauldin, Oil
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by ilene - April 13th, 2010 4:32 pm
Going Nuclear: Obama’s Green Machine Is Ready to Go
By Marin Katusa , Senior Market Strategist, Casey’s Energy Opportunities
Over the Easter weekend, seven nuclear reactors throughout the United States stopped operations, and natural gas prices skyrocketed by over 20%. And this was when most of the country was enjoying mild weather and businesses were shut for the long weekend.
Now traders are out in force looking for the cheapest possible power ahead of rising demand, and the power markets are heading one way: up.
No Homer Simpsons Allowed Here!
It is unfortunate that nuclear power plants are still linked in our minds to the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl disasters. While these were some truly horrific events, we’re failing to realize one very important fact: we’ve learnt from our mistakes. The next generation of nuclear plants are better designed and more safety measures have been put into place than what was there in the plants from the 1960s and 1970s. There is always some operational risk, but that is present in every power plant, be it coal, natural gas, geothermal, or nuclear.
Currently, the United States houses roughly 24% of the world’s nuclear reactors, and they account for about 20% of the power generated in the country. That’s one in every five homes being powered by nuclear energy. This number is a lot higher for some states, with New Jersey getting almost more than 50% of its power from nuclear energy. With renewed interest in nuclear power in the U.S. and President Obama guaranteeing loans for two new reactors this February, it’s pretty clear that the nuclear share in the energy pie is set to increase.
It’s Clean, It’s Green, It’s the New Obama Nuclear Machine
Though they vary in design, nuclear reactors operate on the same basic principle: the energy released by nuclear fission heats water to produce steam, which turns the turbines that generate electricity. The silver lining: no fossil fuels are burnt at any stage, so almost no greenhouse gases are produced. They are, however, expensive to build and it can take years. But once in operation, fuel costs are very low, which translates to low maintenance costs, and each plant can easily operate for up to 60 years. Running at around 90% capacity, nuclear power plants are workhorses that shut down only once every 18 months for refueling and maintenance.
The…
Tags: carbon dioxide, Energy, energy prices, Gas, greenhouse gases, nuclear industry, nuclear power plans, nuclear reactors, Oil, uranium
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by ilene - January 28th, 2010 12:47 pm
Courtesy of Vincent Fernando at Clusterstock/Business Insider
While drilling techniques for natural gas from American shale formations continue to appear safe overall, many are questioning the reliability and objectivity of current environmental assessments.
Statements such as the following only cause confusion and distrust:
Dallas News: Nearly one-fourth of the sites monitored in North Texas’ Barnett Shale natural-gas region had levels of cancer-causing benzene in the air that could raise health concerns, state regulators said Wednesday.
They emphasized, however, that gas companies have fixed the worst emission problems and are working on less-serious sites where the state still wants benzene levels to come down.
"We don’t have a widespread air-quality issue, at least according to the data," said John Sadlier, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality’s deputy director for compliance and enforcement.
Mayor Calvin Tillman of the tiny Denton County town of Dish criticized the study for not including enough tests in residential areas or enough long-term sampling. The town commissioned its own monitoring last year that found extremely high benzene levels.
"I don’t think they want to find anything in a populated area, and I think their sampling reflects that," Tillman said.
The shale gas drilling (and frakking) safety tests of today will have huge ramifications for tomorrow, given that current drilling only scratches the surface of the U.S.’s potential shale-derived natural gas reserves.
Still, given the major commitments in American shale gas made by Exxon (via its recent XTO acquisition) and France’s Total (via its Chesapeake tie-up), it seems highly likely that shale’s environmental concerns will eventually be managed. In the end there’s likely a way to extract the gas safely without too much added cost, if it already isn’t safe enough. Note Total just closed its $2.25 billion Chesapeake joint-venture deal. Regardless, Chesapeake shares are falling.
The author owns shares in Chesapeake Energy (CHK).
Tags: cancer, Chesapeake, CHK, Commodities, Energy, Gas, Markets, shale gas
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by ilene - January 6th, 2010 12:27 am
Courtesy of Vincent Fernando at Clusterstock/The Business Insider
The Oil Drum hosts a research piece that wonders why peak oil isn’t even discussed or worried about by energy experts in governments all around the world.
We’d add that peak oil isn’t really discussed by most energy companies around the world either when they host analyst calls or talk about their strategy.
At least nowhere near the degree that peak oil disaster scenario believers do.
Yet, interestingly, rather than confront their own assumption that peak oil is the global disaster they make it to be, this article at The Oil Drum ignores this and concludes that non-believers around the world are either A) suffering from psychological ‘cognitive biases’ or B) in it together in a giant global cover up (combining many enemy governments at odds with each other, plus competing corporations we might add).
It seems the peak oil disaster boat is sinking. You be the judge, emphasis added:
The Oil Drum: Anyone aware of peak oil has had to wonder (at least briefly) why the world’s governments seem to be ignoring the issue….
“The growing popular debate on ‘peak oil’ has had relatively little influence on conventional policy discourse. For example, the UK government rarely mentions the issue in official publications and …..’does not feel the need to hold contingency plans specifically for the eventuality of crude oil supplies peaking between now and 2020′.”3 The report notes that “the UK is one of many countries that are failing to give serious consideration to this risk.”…
Nate Hagens has argued here “that despite facts, we exhibit certain cognitive biases that prevent us from acting on complex or frightening subjects outside of our day to day realities.”9 This category would include the notion of “cognitive dissonance” and other psychological factors that save us the trouble of facing difficult facts or “truths”, including that of our own mortality. The sheer difficulty of believing, or grasping, as consequential a figure as Hubbert’s Peak, is well supported by anecdotal evidence among peak oilers who commonly report a “glazed-over” response to their efforts…
What if the silence on peak oil is not a betrayal of national interests, but a policy
…
Tags: Commodities, Energy, Gas, Peak Oil Believers
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by ilene - October 3rd, 2009 12:53 pm
Mad Hedge is quite a fascinating character who’s had a very exciting career in finances and more. He writes daily newsletter entries on market action, stocks and trends in the economy, and I highly recommend taking a moment to peruse his site, Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. - Ilene
Interview With A Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Introduction
Mad Hedge Fund Trader began his career in finance by moving to Japan and working at Dai Nana Securities as a research analyst in 1974. In 1976 he was named the Tokyo correspondent for The Economist magazine and the Financial Times, which then shared an office. He traveled the world interviewing famous people, such as Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. In 1982, he was named the US editor of Euromoney magazine, and in 1983 he built a new division in international equities for Morgan Stanley. After moving to London in 1985, Mad Hedge supervised sales and trading in Japanese equity derivatives. In 1989, he became a director of the Swiss Bank Corp, responsible for Japanese equity derivatives. A year later, he set up an international hedge fund which he sold in 1999.
I haven’t even covered all of Mad Hedge’s adventures, such as his latent movie star career (as an extra in the 1979 epic war film, Apocalypse Now), and who knows what else. But now, missing the adrenaline-surging excitement of active trading, Mad Hedge has returned to the hedge fund business, set up an educational website, and is busy keeping up with the demands of newsletter writing.. So let’s begin our interview with Mad Hedge by exploring his current thoughts on the markets.
Interview
Ilene: Hi Mad Hedge. You’ve had a fascinating career having little to do with your major in biochemistry. A brief review of your newsletter shows that your recommendations early in 2009 have appreciated by an average of around 400%. You’ve been writing your daily market thoughts and investment strategies at your website – www.madhedgefundtrader.com – which it’s terrific, by the way. What are your goals with this site?
Mad Hedge: This whole thing started out as a letter to investors in my hedge fund, to tell them my thinking behind my positions. Then I thought, why not post this on the web and see what happens? Six months later it is now going out to 50,000 readers a day, mostly to portfolio managers, financial advisors, and traders. The growth has been explosive.
Ilene:…
Tags: bond market, Economy, Gas, Hedge Funds, Japanese equity derivatives, Mad Hedge Fund Trader, Oil, Real Estate, Stock Market, TBT
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by ilene - September 1st, 2009 12:17 pm
Courtesy of Jay Yarow at Clusterstock, Green Sheet
Tags: Alternative Energy, Commodities, Energy, First Solar, Gas, Investing, Markets, Oil, Solar, Stock Market, stocks
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by ilene - August 28th, 2009 6:00 am
Courtesy of Joe Weisenthal at Clusterstock
"Via Mahalanobis, here’s the latest read on the oil-to-natural gas ratio. Check out the breakout peak on the bottom chart."
Tags: Commodities, Energy, Gas, Markets, Oil
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.