ROACH’S 4 REASONS WHY THE ECONOMY REMAINS VULNERABLE
by ilene - January 6th, 2010 12:48 am
ROACH’S 4 REASONS WHY THE ECONOMY REMAINS VULNERABLE
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd. says the global
1) The financial crisis itself is far from over.
2) The breadth of this global recession was staggering.
3) The demand side of the global economy is likely to be restrained by a protracted pullback of the over-extended American consumer.
4) The supply side of the global economy suffers from massive imbalances, especially China-centric developing Asia.
Full interview follows:
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The Paradox of Deficits
by ilene - May 28th, 2009 2:23 am
Courtesy of John Mauldin
The Paradox of Deficits
In this issue:
Things That Go Bump in the Night
A Trillion Dollars as Far as the Eye Can See
The Global Recession Gets Worse
Where Will the Money Come From?
The Paradox of Deficits
Naples, London, and Eastern Europe
There is something that is bumping around in my worry closet. The bond market is not behaving as if there is deflation in our future, and the dollar is getting weaker. Unemployment keeps rising, but most of all, the US government deficit looks to be spinning out of control. This week we look at all of this and take a tour around the world to see what is happening. There is a lot of interesting material to cover….
A Trillion Dollars as Far as the Eye Can See
As of this week, total US debt is $11.3 trillion and rising rapidly. The Obama Administration projects that to rise another $1.85 trillion in 2009 (13% of GDP) and yet another $1.4 trillion in 2010. The Congressional Budget Office projects almost $10 trillion in additional debt from 2010 through 2019. Just last January the 2009 deficit was estimated at "only" $1.2 trillion. Things have gone downhill fast.
But there is reason to be concerned about those estimates, too. The CBO assumes a rather robust recovery in 2010, with growth springing back to 3.8% and then up to 4.5% in 2011. Interestingly, they project unemployment of 8.8% for this year (we are already at 8.9% and rising every month) and that it will rise to 9% next year. It will be a strange recovery indeed where the economy is roaring along at 4% and unemployment isn’t falling. (You can see their spreadsheets and all the details if you take your blood pressure medicine first, at www.cbo.gov.)
Just a few quick thoughts. This year the proposed administration plan is to borrow 50% of every dollar spent. The CBO projects than nominal GDP will grow by about 50% over the next 10 years (which is historically reasonable), but also that revenues will double, which suggests massive tax increases in relation to GDP. Interestingly, the International Monetary Fund says growth next year will be tepid at best (more below). The deficit in 2010 is almost 10% of GDP. The average proposed…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.