Posts Tagged ‘google searches’

WOULD YOU LIKE A CARRY TRADE WITH THAT?

WOULD YOU LIKE A CARRY TRADE WITH THAT?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

This excellent guest contribution, in response to Annaly Capital’s comments, comes from our friends at the PazzoMundo site:

The ‘carry trade’ is in the paparazzi’s sights.  Have a look how it is faring on Google Trends:

pazz1

It’s latest incarnation is via the USD.  And as David Rosenberg points out – it looks like the world’s reserve currency is being used to fund just about every asset beyond cash on the risk spectrum.

The U.S. dollar has become a huge ‘carry trade’ vehicle for all risky assets.  Historically, there is no correlation at all between the DXY index (the U.S. dollar index) and the S&P 500. In the past eight months, that correlation is 90%. Ditto for credit spreads — zero correlation from 1995 to 2008, but now it has surged to 90% since April. There was historically a 70% inverse correlation between the U.S. dollar and emerging markets, such as the Brazilian Bovespa, and that correlation has also increased to 90% since the spring. Even the VIX index, which historically has had no better than a 20% correlation with the U.S. dollar, has now sent that correlation surge to 90%. Amazing. The inverse correlations between the U.S. dollar and gold and the U.S. dollar and commodities were always strong, but these too have strengthened and now stand at over 90%.

My sense is that with it’s rise into public awareness, we are heading into the final throes of USD weakness.  For example, when someone like Felix Salmon writing for Reuters does a survey of “How US investors can play the carry trade” that’s got to be a flag.  And when phrases like ‘the gimme trade of the century’ are used (Annaly via TPC) in the same breath as describing it’s dynamics – the risk that complacency has set in is pretty darn high.

Think about it – the (currency version of the) carry trade says that you can borrow cheap in USD, sell those freshly minted dollars and buy into a higher yielding currency.  The assumption is that the USD will continue to fall – so that in addition to the yield pick-up, you make a capital gain when you buy your…
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Zero Hedge

Toshiba Shareholders Vote To Oust Chairman In Rare Blow To Management

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Rebukes of corporate leaders in Japan are rare, but on Friday, shareholders of Toshiba - one of Japan's most important and most well-known tech giants - voted to oust Chairman of the Board Osamu Nagayama (along with a member of the board's audit committee) after an independent investigation uncovered that the company had wrongly colluded with other insiders to try and influence last year's board selection.

The vote comes just months after Toshiba investors backed Singapore-based hedge fund Effissimo Capital Management's call for a probe into the 2020 annu...



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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Webinar 06-23-2021

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW! 

The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Webinar 06-23-2021

 

Major Topics:
00:00:13 - Checking on the Market
00:00:33 - DJIA
00:03:16 - S&P 500 / Russell 2000
00:04:43 - Bitcoin 
00:08:21 - Natural Gas / Energy
00:11:25 - Gasoline / Crude Oil
00:12:34 - EIA Report
00:18:44 - Inflation
00:24:28 - Natural Gas
00:28:26 - Lumber
00:29:38 - Sugar
00:30:16 - Orange Juice
00:31:36 - Cotton
00:31:54 - USD / Orange Juice
00:34:08 - Coffee...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The FDA's weak drug manufacturing oversight is a potentially deadly problem

 

The FDA’s weak drug manufacturing oversight is a potentially deadly problem

Though drug recalls are relatively uncommon in the U.S., reduced inspections increase the likelihood of manufacturing errors that slip through the cracks. AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool

Courtesy of Adrian V. Hernandez, University of Connecticut and C. Michael White, University of Connecticut

The ...



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Digital Currencies

Will Bitcoin Crash the Stock Market?

 

Will Bitcoin Crash the Stock Market?

Courtesy of 

When the S&P 500 fell in March last year, it brought Bitcoin down with it. So if stocks can bring down Bitcoin, it’s reasonable to ask if Bitcoin can bring down stocks.*

If you thought the Bitcoin run-up to 60k was emblematic of investor** euphoria, then you probably wondered what would happen if it were to come crashing down. Would that take other high-flying areas of the market down with it?

It might be premature, but as of now, the answer is no.

...



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Chart School

RTT Plus Bulletin

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

RTT Plus private blog answer these questions over the last two weeks.

Ending: 2021-06-19

- Metal stocks very bullish after gold smash
- FED taper talk vs Basel 3
- Dollar devaluatioin before end of 2021
- COVID, Vaccine insight (off topic)
- The next play for the deep sate (off topic)
- The debt loaded USA can not break these economic stats


RTT Plus membership required to review.

RTT Plus members can include chart building services if you wish. If you you do not want chart building services select 'RTT Plus' only during the membership sign up process.

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Politics

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

 

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

Americans are confused about the history of Ukraine. That's just how Russia wants it.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL

Greg is the author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

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Promotions

Live Webinar with Phil on Option Strategies

 

June is TD Bank's Option Education Month, and today (Thursday, June 10) at 1 pm EST, Phil will speak with host Bryan Rogers about selling options and various option strategies that we use here at Phil's Stock World. Don't miss this event!

Click here to register for TD's live webinar with Phil.

 

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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