Posts Tagged ‘google searches’

WOULD YOU LIKE A CARRY TRADE WITH THAT?

WOULD YOU LIKE A CARRY TRADE WITH THAT?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

This excellent guest contribution, in response to Annaly Capital’s comments, comes from our friends at the PazzoMundo site:

The ‘carry trade’ is in the paparazzi’s sights.  Have a look how it is faring on Google Trends:

pazz1

It’s latest incarnation is via the USD.  And as David Rosenberg points out – it looks like the world’s reserve currency is being used to fund just about every asset beyond cash on the risk spectrum.

The U.S. dollar has become a huge ‘carry trade’ vehicle for all risky assets.  Historically, there is no correlation at all between the DXY index (the U.S. dollar index) and the S&P 500. In the past eight months, that correlation is 90%. Ditto for credit spreads — zero correlation from 1995 to 2008, but now it has surged to 90% since April. There was historically a 70% inverse correlation between the U.S. dollar and emerging markets, such as the Brazilian Bovespa, and that correlation has also increased to 90% since the spring. Even the VIX index, which historically has had no better than a 20% correlation with the U.S. dollar, has now sent that correlation surge to 90%. Amazing. The inverse correlations between the U.S. dollar and gold and the U.S. dollar and commodities were always strong, but these too have strengthened and now stand at over 90%.

My sense is that with it’s rise into public awareness, we are heading into the final throes of USD weakness.  For example, when someone like Felix Salmon writing for Reuters does a survey of “How US investors can play the carry trade” that’s got to be a flag.  And when phrases like ‘the gimme trade of the century’ are used (Annaly via TPC) in the same breath as describing it’s dynamics – the risk that complacency has set in is pretty darn high.

Think about it – the (currency version of the) carry trade says that you can borrow cheap in USD, sell those freshly minted dollars and buy into a higher yielding currency.  The assumption is that the USD will continue to fall – so that in addition to the yield pick-up, you make a capital gain when you buy your…
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Zero Hedge

Going Down With The Ship: After Raging At Moody's For Downgrade To Deep Junk, Masa Son Pledges 40% Of SoftBank Stake To Lenders

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last October, in the aftermath of the WeWork and Uber fiasco, we asked if SoftBank, that chronic seed (and not so seed) investor in cash-incinerating zerocorns startups would be "The Bubble Era's "Short Of The Century." Subsequent events have only made our query more pressing: with the global economy frozen, with social distancing and self-quarantine now a mandatory part of life...



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Phil's Favorites

Stimulus package will remain half-baked unless local governments get more of the dough

 

Stimulus package will remain half-baked unless local governments get more of the dough

People still need baked goods even during a lockdown. Frederic Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Stephanie Leiser, University of Michigan

Lawmakers are pinning their hopes on a US$2 trillion package to prop up the U.S. economy and provide relief to individuals and business ravaged by the coronavirus. ...



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The Technical Traders

These Index Charts Will Calm You Down

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I put together this video that will calm you down, because knowing where are within the stock market cycles, and the economy makes all the difference.

This is the worst time to be starting a business that’s for sure. I have talked about this is past videos and events I attended that bear markets are fantastic opportunities if you can retain your capital until late in the bear market cycle. If you can do this, you will find countless opportunities to invest money. From buying businesses, franchises, real estate, equipment, and stocks at a considerable discount that would make today’s prices look ridiculous (which they are).

Take a quick watch of this video because it shows you ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Broadest Of All Stock Indices Testing Critical Support, Says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One of the broadest indices in the states remains in a long-term bullish trend, where a critical support test is in play.

The chart looks at the Wilshire 5000 on a monthly basis over the past 35-years.

The index has spent the majority of the past three decades inside of rising channel (1). It hit the top of this multi-decade channel to start off the year, where it created a monthly bearish reversal pattern.

Weakness the past 2-months has the index testing rising support and the December 2018 lows at (2).

Joe...



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Insider Scoop

Why SmileDirectClub's Stock Is Trading Higher Today

Courtesy of Benzinga

SmileDirectClub (NASDAQ: SDC) shares were trading higher on Friday, after the company announced it's now producing medical-grade face shields for health care workers amidst the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

SmileDirectClub says it has capacity to print up to 7,500 face shields per day and is accepting orders from healthcare org...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Coronavirus treatments and vaccines - research on 3 types of antivirals and 10 different vaccines is being fast-tracked

 

Coronavirus treatments and vaccines – research on 3 types of antivirals and 10 different vaccines is being fast-tracked

Scientific research on the novel coronavirus has progressed at unprecedented speed. Mongkolchon Akesin / Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ignacio López-Goñi, Universidad de Navarra

Just three months after China first notified the World Health Organization about a deadly new coronavirus, studies of numerous antiviral t...



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Chart School

Cycle Trading - Funny when it comes due

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Non believers of cycles become fast believers when the heat of the moment is upon them.

Just has we have birthdays, so does the market, regular cycles of time and price. The market news of the cycle turn may change each time, but the time is regular. Markets are not a random walk.


Success comes from strategy and the execution of a plan.















Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch an...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tested As A Safe Haven After Biggest Stock Crash Since 2009

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Horus Hughes via CoinTelegraph.com,

Gold and Bitcoin react to global panic

Amid all of yesterday's chaos in bond, commodity, and stock markets, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note dropping below 0.5% for the first time in history - a strong indicator that investors are desperately looking for safe harbors - two supposed safe-havens in 'alternative currencies' behaved qui...



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Members' Corner

Bloody Mob Sh*t: An Interview with Lincoln's Bible

 

Bloody Mob Sh*t: An Interview with Lincoln's Bible

We talk Trump, Mogilevich, Epstein, Giuliani, Fred Trump, Roy Cohn, and more.

Courtesy of Greg Olear at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

(Originally published on Feb. 21, 20.)

...

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ValueWalk

Entrepreneurial activity and business ownership on the rise

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Indicating strong health of entrepreneurship, both entrepreneurial activity and established business ownership in the United States have trended upwards over the past 19 years, according to the 2019/2020 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Global Report, released March 3rd in Miami at the GEM Annual Meeting.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Benefit Of Entrepreneurial Activity ...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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