Posts Tagged ‘government jobs’

California Cut 37,000 Government Jobs in September; Much More to Come

California Cut 37,000 Government Jobs in September; Much More to Come

Businessman Leaping into Swimming Pool

Courtesy of Mish

The LA Times reports Government job cuts ravage California

Weighed down by a struggling economy, government agencies in California shed 37,300 workers last month — more jobs than were lost in the private sector — as cities and counties made their biggest payroll cutbacks since at least 1990.

What’s more, analysts see more job cuts ahead as California faces an estimated $10-billion shortfall in the state budget that the next governor must address. Cities and counties, meanwhile, are still struggling with tepid sales and property tax revenue.

Cities across the state have taken stringent measures to balance their budgets, said Eva Spiegel, a spokeswoman with the League of California Cities.

Oakland laid off 80 police officers and delayed pothole repairs. Fullerton laid off 14 police officers and three firefighters, cut library hours and closed restrooms at several parks. Oceanside laid off 28 police officers and three firefighters, closed a swimming pool and a recreation center and eliminated the city Bookmobile.

Overall, the state’s unemployment rate remained stuck at 12.4%, one of the highest in the nation. The state lost a net 63,600 jobs in September. Local governments shed 32,400 jobs, according to the monthly report from the state Employment Development Department released Friday.

Taxable sales plummeted 18.5% in California from 2006 to 2009 and are expected to remain relatively flat this year, according to the National University System Institute for Policy Research in La Jolla.

The National League of Cities reported this month that cities across the country were making their sharpest cuts in at least a quarter of a century. Nearly 80% of city finance officers in a survey reported laying off staff, and 87% said their cities were worse off financially this year than last year.

Taxable Sales Down 18%

Those last two paragraphs are the key to understanding one of the things I have been saying, that there is no recovery in sales.

Every month, when retail sales numbers come out, I question them. Here is my article from October 15: Retail Sales Rise More Than Forecast; Once Again I Ask "Really?"

Retail sales may be at their best point in the year, but sales are certainly not within 3% of the all time high [as government data shows]. If they were, tax revenue collection would


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Economic Nonsense from Ezra Klein at the Washington Post

Economic Nonsense from Ezra Klein at the Washington Post

jobsCourtesy of Mish

The only genuinely good news in Friday’s jobs report was the much needed shedding of 159,000 government workers of which only 77,000 were temporary census workers.

Shed another million government workers and you have a small start as to what needs to happen. Some don’t see it that way, including Erza Klein at the Washington Post.

Assuming you are able to stomach still more Keynesian claptrap please consider Welcome to the anti-stimulus

The good news: The private sector gained 64,000 jobs in September. The bad news? The public sector lost 159,000.

The government is now impeding an economic recovery. But it’s not for the reasons you often hear. It’s not because of debt or because of taxes. Nor has it scared the private sector into timidity. It’s because, at the state and local level, it’s firing people. There are more than 14 million Americans looking for work right now — to say nothing of the 9.5 million who have been forced into part-time jobs when they want, and need, full-time work — and the government just added 159,000 more to the pool. Consider this: If we only counted private-sector jobs, we’d have had positive jobs reports for the last nine months. As it is, public-sector losses have wiped out private-sector gains for the past four months.

Because the federal government has decided against backing up state and local governments, the bleeding continues, and that scares businesses away from investing in recovery. We create the stimulus that helped the economy survive 2008 and 2009, and we’ve created the anti-stimulus that’s keeping it from recovering in 2010.

Keynesian Claptrap At Its Finest

printing moneyGee, if only the government would hire everyone, there would be no unemployment.

Then again, countless cities, counties, municipalities and states are bankrupt because of absurd levels of spending.

Isn’t that what wrecked Greece?

Non-Solution #1- Raising taxes

Raising taxes burdens ordinary taxpayers for the sole benefit of government bureaucrats who like most of the rest of the population ought to be thankful they have a job at all.

Non-Solution #2 – Printing money and giving it away 

Ezra is clearly a fan of printing money and giving it away to government bureaucrats so the unemployment rate does not drop.

However, printing money and giving it away cheapens the US dollar, making goods and services…
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Jobs Decrease by 125,000, Rise by 100,000 Excluding Census; Unemployment Rate Drops to 9.5%; A Look at the Details

Jobs Decrease by 125,000, Rise by 100,000 Excluding Census; Unemployment Rate Drops to 9.5%; A Look at the Details

Courtesy of Mish 

This morning the BLS reported a decrease of 125,000 jobs. However, that reflects a decrease 225,000 temporary census workers. Last month there was an increase of 411,000 temporary census workers. Next month will also likely be negative due to the dismissal of more temporary workers.

Excluding the census effect, the economy added 100,000 jobs but interestingly 20,500 of them were private temporary jobs. Temporary jobs have become a way of life.

Excluding the census effect, government added 17,000 jobs. That is going to change in the coming months (possibly dramatically depending on Congressional stimulus actions) as states are forced to layoff workers for budgetary reasons.

That will be a good thing because Firing Public Union Workers Creates Jobs. Unfortunately, politicians and Keynesian clown economists will not see it that way.

Hidden beneath the surface the BLS Black Box – Birth Death Model added 145,000 jobs.

However, as I have pointed out many times before, the Birth/Death numbers cannot be subtracted straight up to get a raw number. It contributed to this month’s employment total for sure, but the BLS will not disclose by how much.

On the whole, this was an OK jobs report (depending on your expectations), yet perhaps as good as it gets for a while.

The unemployment rate dropped only because of a declining participation rate. Last month the number of unemployed was 15 million. This month it was 14.6 million. Clearly the economy did not add 400,000 jobs.

The drop in participation rate was not that surprising because (as I expected) some of the long-term unemployed stopped looking jobs, or opted for retirement.

Nonetheless, I still do not think the top in the unemployment rate is in and expect it may rise substantially later this year as the recovery heads into a coma and states are forced to cut back workers.

Employment and Recessions

Calculated risk has a great chart showing the effects of census hiring as well as the extremely weak hiring in this recovery.

click on chart for sharper image

The dotted lines tell the real story about how pathetic a jobs recovery this has been. Bear in mind it has taken $trillions in stimulus to produce this.

June 2010 Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics…
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Temporary Census Workers Discover Productivity Means Less Money

Temporary Census Workers Discover Productivity Means Less Money

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant 

In the kind of ;gotcha! that’s been a trademark of this particular recession, temporary Census workers have discovered that their productivity has, in fact, worked against them. A larger pool of available workers means more talent in the pool, more talent means a better work ethic and a better work ethic means work gets done promptly, meaning checks evaporate weeks ahead of schedule, leaving these workers out of work once again.

WSJ:

Just as the 2010 census has been a boon for unemployed workers, the high unemployment rate has been a boon for the Census Bureau, bringing in skilled temporary employees who are eager to work. "The labor force that we’ve attracted to work on the census has a set of skills, experience and commitment to the job that exceeds all our experiences in the past," said Census Bureau director Robert Groves.

Because the temporary work force is more productive, the bureau is closing some offices earlier than it planned. Mr. Groves anticipates that will shave $170 million off the original $2.2 billion budget for door-to-door operations.

That’ll teach you to be productive. 


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May Jobs Report Is ‘Disappointing’

Courtesy of Econophile

From The Daily Capitalist

President Obama has now become a professional economist, because like most professional economists his unemployment forecast was wrong.

While the headline from the Wall Street Journal this morning was "Census Hiring Bolsters U.S. Payrolls," nothing could be farther from the truth. Private sector job growth in May was anemic, coming in at only 41,000. The total number of new jobs was 431,000, but temporary Census Bureau hiring accounted for 411,000 of those jobs. Note that the difference between the two numbers doesn’t add up because net government employment was less than that because state and local governments shed jobs. [I now see that the latest online edition of the Journal has re-entitled their story, "US Private Sector Added Few Jobs In May."]

The consensus among economists surveyed by the Journal and Bloomberg expected 515,000 and 536,000, respectively.

“Job growth is going to be anemic,” said Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California.

“Remember, it requires 150,000 to 200,000 jobs in order to reduce that unemployment rate, which is a key focus for the administration,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio’s Tom Keene on “Bloomberg on the Economy.”

These numbers are disappointing considering that April showed modest private employment growth of 218,000 jobs in April and 230,000 jobs in March. Overall the unemployment rate dropped from 9.9% to 9.7%. The broader "U-6" index dropped to 16.6% from 17.1%. This is not what was expected. It is discouraging to see the Employment-population ratio decline YoY from 59.6  to 58.7 (May 2009 to May 2010).

The U-6 report is interesting in that while it fell, it is likely that the fall was a result of people dropping out of the labor force because they can’t find employment. The civilian labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2% to 65.0%. About 6.8 million people have been out of a job for more than 27 weeks, or 46% of the unemployed. This has to be considered in light of population increases: while the population grew 170,000, 322,000 dropped out of the labor force.

Some of the BLS report highlights: manufacturing +29,000, temps +31,000, mining +10,000, health care +8,000, construction -35,000. These numbers well under the levels seen for…
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Padded Pensions and What to do About Them

Padded Pensions and What to do About Them

Courtesy of Mish

The New York Times article Padded Pensions Add to New York Fiscal Woes has been making the rounds. At least 20 people sent me the link. Let’s take a look at few snips, then a look at a followup Times article on addressing the problems.

In Yonkers, more than 100 retired police officers and firefighters are collecting pensions greater than their pay when they were working. One of the youngest, Hugo Tassone, retired at 44 with a base pay of about $74,000 a year. His pension is now $101,333 a year.

It’s what the system promised, said Mr. Tassone, now 47, adding that he did nothing wrong by adding lots of overtime to his base pay shortly before retiring. “I don’t understand how the working guy that held up their end of the bargain became the problem,” he said.

According to pension data collected by The New York Times from the city and state, about 3,700 retired public workers in New York are now getting pensions of more than $100,000 a year, exempt from state and local taxes. The data belie official reports that the average state pension is a modest $18,000, or $38,000 for retired police officers and firefighters. (The average is low, in part, because it includes people who worked in government only part time, or just a few years, as well as surviving spouses getting partial benefits.)

Some will receive the big pensions for decades. Thirteen New York City police officers recently retired at age 40 with pensions above $100,000 a year; nine did so in their 30s.

The Times article is 4 pages long so please give it a closer look.

Legal Theft

Undoubtedly Mr. Tassone is not as stupid as he sounds. He knows full well he gamed the system, but it was legal.

Tassone argues he held up his end of the bargain. Excuse me for asking what end is that? Public unions are legalized mobs. They coerce votes from corrupt politicians willing to buy there patronage.

There is no "public end" because there is no one working on the public’s behalf. Indeed the public in general has been crucified with never ending tax hikes to support union thugs who pack every school board in the country, and promise Armageddon if police or firefighters get laid off.

The public is


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Jobs Increase by 136,000; Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.7%; BLS Refused To Address My Question On Seasonality; Part-Time Work up by 738,000 in 2 Months

Jobs Increase by 136,000; Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.7%; BLS Refused To Address My Question On Seasonality; Part-Time Work up by 738,000 in 2 Months

Courtesy of Mish

This morning the BLS reported an increase of 136,000 jobs. Headline unemployment was unchanged at 9.7%. Before diving into the numbers let’s look at a couple questions from a live Q&A session. The BLS took questions in advance.

Seasonality Question Unanswered

I asked the BLS a question regarding increasing amplitude in seasonal adjustments twice, once early in the day yesterday and once again today right at the beginning of the session. The BLS did not answer it.

The exact question I submitted is in the addendum to BLS Live Question and Answer Session on Friday, April 2nd

The BLS had plenty of time to answer or at least email me. They did neither.

From the live-chat with the BLS here are a few questions they did answer.

From Madeline: Is there an estimate for how many census workers will be hired for the current census and when those hires will occur? Are these employees full, or part-time? How does the BLS treat these employees? Are they counted as "regular" employees?

Laura Kelter (BLS-CES):
Madeline, thanks for your questions. Current information on the census intermittent worker impact on CES estimates can be found at Census 2010 temporary and intermittent workers and Federal government employment. To be considered employed in the CES survey, workers need to receive pay for any time during their pay period including the 12th of the month. Workers getting paid for just one hour would be considered employed. The CES survey cannot distinguish between full- and part-time workers.

From Bill: Hi. The headline payroll number is seasonally adjusted, and the hiring for the 2010 Census is NSA. How would you suggest adjusting for the 2010 Census hiring to determine the underlying trend (not counting the snow storms!)?

Michele Walker (BLS-CES):
Thanks for your question Bill. There is an adjustment made for the 2010 Census. Before seasonally adjusting the estimates, BLS makes a special modification so that the Census workers do not influence the calculation of the seasonal factors. Specifically, BLS subtracts the Census workers from the not-seasonally adjusted estimates before running seasonal adjustment using X-12. After the estimates have been seasonally adjusted, BLS adds the Census workers to the seasonally adjusted totals. Therefore,…
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Rethinking Salary Constructs, Federal Pay Continues To Skyrocket

Rethinking Salary Constructs, Federal Pay Continues To Skyrocket 

government workerCourtesy of The Daily Bail

In 2008 the average federal worker earned twice that of his private-industry counterpart in wages and benefits: $120,000 per year versus $60,000.

Check out the difference in slope of the two lines.  Yowza.  Federal pay and benefits are up 58% since 2000 compared to just 28% in the private sector.

Of course, when you consider the massive productivity advantage government workers enjoy over their private counterparts, it all makes sense.  WTF?

Well, it’s all the Democrats fault undoubtedly.  Wait, looks like it was Bush.

  • The George W. Bush years were very lucrative for federal workers. In 2000, the average compensation (wages and benefits) of federal workers was 66 percent higher than the average compensation in the U.S. private sector. The new data show that average federal compensation is now more than double the average in the private sector.
  • If you drive through Northern Virginia, you will find nearly entire neighborhoods of $500,000 to $900,000 homes owned by government workers or contractors.  Then you can drive five streets over and find $200,000 to $400,000 homes owned by those who pay the salaries for those government employees.  It’s a fascinating distribution of wealth.  Most government employees and contractors could not earn more than $60,000 on the free market. Their only chance to make that kind of money comes from having an employer that not only never has to make a profit but can forcibly take money through taxation.

The answer is that both are deeply to blame.  Don’t be fooled.  There’s nary a difference between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to growth of government.  Both parties are completely, sadistically, out of control.  There is NO spending restraint on either side of the aisle, just hot air, promises, and purple unicorns.  Oh and bubbles.

 


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Unemployment and Government Jobs

Since it’s such big news, I will report on the latest unemployment report by the BLS, but I dislike spending too much time on it because I consider it one of the weaker or murkier sources of data, at least on a monthly basis.

Often it conflicts heavily with other private or more reliable sources of data, which have been collectively telling a grimmer story than today’s headline news release of an additional loss of 217,000 jobs for August 2009.

Regardless, here’s the news, with my analysis:

Unemployment rate jumps to 26-year high of 9.7%

By Rex Nutting

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to a 26-year high of 9.7% in August as nonfarm payrolls fell by 216,000, the 20th consecutive monthly decline, the Labor Department estimated Friday.

Of course, 9.7% would be dream rate to teenagers who are now suffering their own quiet depression with a 25% unemployment rate, and for blacks and Hispanics, who are pulling up an uncomfortable second and third behind the teens.

U.S. payrolls have dropped by 6.9 million to 131.2 million since the recession began in December 2007, the government data showed. Unemployment has increased by 7.4 million during the recession to 14.9 million.

As you probably know, unemployment is measured in two ways:  the percentage rate is derived from the household data, while the actual number of jobs gained or lost is sampled from ‘establishments,’ meaning businesses.  In the paragraph above, we might note that there is now a 500,000 job difference (7.4 – 6.9) between the number of jobs reported lost by households vs. establishments.

The 216,000 decline in payrolls was close to market expectations of a 233,000 drop, but the unemployment rate rose higher than the 9.5% level expected. The unemployment rate was 9.4% in July.

Payroll losses have moderated in most industries in the past two months. Payrolls declined an upwardly revised 276,000 in July. In June and July, payroll losses were revised up by 49,000.

Oops.  A 9.5% rate expected, but 9.7% hit.  That’s a miss.  Also note the large downward revisions, totaling nearly 50k jobs for June and July.   Downward revisions are a sign of weakness.

Government Jobs

By way of commentary, we might also


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Zero Hedge

BofA's "Charts Of Darkness For Apocalypse Dow"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With just 42 days trading days left until the S&P500 bull market becomes the longer of all time, Morgan Stanley's chief cross-asset strategist, Andrew Sheets, writes that investors are now more sanguine about how much time they have until the next recession than at any point since 2010. "We’re 8 ½ years into an expansion, and many investors finally are finally confident that there is plenty of time left on the clock." Sheets also notes that in client conversations, China is rarely mentioned as a growth concern (after causing angst for much of this period). All this is taking place against a backdrop in which key market elements are ...



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Chart School

Semiconductors Accelerate Losses

Courtesy of Declan.

There was no real change on the end-of-week position of markets. The Semiconductor Index was the most active with an undercut close of the week's swing low Next support level is the 50-day MA.


Despite the swing low undercut in the Semiconductor Index there were no breakout reversals for the Nasdaq or Nasdaq 100; indeed, the weakness may be viewed as a buying opportunity with a test of support.

...

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Phil's Favorites

Will Disney's Epic Buyout Of Fox Mark The End Of The Everything-Bubble?

Courtesy of John Rubino, DollarCollapse.com

As bubbles expand and hot money starts burning holes in corporate pockets, merger and acquisition deal terms begin to leave reality behind. Often one deal of such breathtaking size, scope and hubris is struck that - in retrospect – it heralds the end of the era.

The junk bond bubble of the 1980s, for instance, hit its apex with the December 1988 leveraged buyout of processed food conglomerate RJR Nabisco, which featured a prolonged bidding war by a Who’s Who of the corporate raider/LBO community. At $25 billion, it was seen as “staggering” at t...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto-Collapse Resumes After Japan's Largest Exchange Halts Account Creation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

What started off as a hopeful week of broadening user adoption is ending on a sour note as Japan's chief regulator launched a probe of crypto-exchanges, prompting the largest to halt account creation sending the entire crypto space lower...

As CNBC reports, the order...



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Insider Scoop

Booking Holdings Is Playing Catch-Up In Online Travel Growth Areas, Analyst Says In Downgrade

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For June 22, 2018 Booking Holdings CEO Has Some Winning Travel Tips For ...

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Biotech

Opioids don't have to be addictive - the new versions will treat pain without triggering pleasure

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opioids don't have to be addictive – the new versions will treat pain without triggering pleasure

shutterstock.

Courtesy of Tao Che, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill

The problem with opioids is that they kill pain – and people. In the past three years, more than 125,000 persons died from an opioid overdose – an average of 115 people per day – exceeding the number killed in ...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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