Posts Tagged ‘Graham Summers’

The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 3

Here’s part 3 of Graham’s Economic Collapse Essay.

The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 3

Courtesy of Graham Summers at Gains, Pains and Capital

Over the last two essays, we’ve detailed:

  • How the US outsourced its job market starting in 1971
  • The US’s economic shift from manufacturing to financial services
  • The rise of credit as a means to maintaining one’s quality of life
  • The real decline in US incomes since the early ‘70s
  • The rise of China as an economic power (fueled by US consumer spending)
  • The real Federal debt problem and deficits
  • Why Obama’s Stimulus Plan won’t solve anything
  • What the US needs to do to get out of this mess

Today, we’re going to detail what is most likely to happen in the coming years (at least in my opinion). Understand, I’m not a super bear or anti-America, just someone who tries to put two and two together and end up with four.

The US has a MAJOR debt problem. Including future social security and Medicare expenses we owe $65 TRILLION. Because we live in a world in which the words, “billion” get thrown around with too much ease, I’d like to put that number into perspective.

Let’s say you have a stack of $1,000 bills. $1 million would be a stack eight inches high. $1 billion would be a stack 800 feet high (think the Washington Monument). And $1 trillion would be a stack 142 miles high. Total US debt, if laid on its side, would be a stack of $1,000 stretching more than 1/3 of the way around the earth.

Ok, so where is the US economy REALLY at right now?

Year over year real employment, real industrial orders, real housing starts, and real retail sales are all posting their largest drops since the production shutdown following WWII. Put another way, the last time the US economy fell this hard this fast, we were intentionally shutting down the monster that was the US war machine in WWII.

This is no recession. We are already on our way to a Depression (a GDP contraction of 10%) possibly even another Great Depression. One in nine Americans are currently receiving food stamps. Real unemployment (without birth/death seasonal nonsense and all the other Federal gimmicks) stands at 20%.

So I don’t buy the “green
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The Coming Economic Collapse Pt 2

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The Coming Economic Collapse Pt 2

Courtesy of Graham Summers of Gains, Pains, and Capital

Today’s essay is part two of our three part series detailing the ongoing collapse of the US economy with a focus on why this coming fall will prove the “worst is over” crowd wrong yet again. On Friday we detailed three major developments. They were:

1.     The US’s economic shift from manufacturing to services (mainly financial)
2.     The massive drop in US incomes
3.     The beginning of the debt bubble
 

If you missed that essay, you can read it here. Today, we’re addressing how the debt bubble encapsulated the US government as well as why Obama’s Stimulus Plan won’t fix anything.

To revisit the above three points, the US began outsourcing jobs in earnest soon after we re-opened trade with China in 1971. As outsourcing spread to higher and higher skilled jobs, this meant fewer jobs in the US market. This resulted in US consumers having to use credit to maintain their standard of living. It also meant more than one parent working to make ends meet.

On a national level, the US government began living beyond its means as well. Adjusted for inflation, gross tax receipts have only risen 40% in the last 39 years. However, over the same time period, total government spending increased 2,600%!!!

To fund this insanity, the US issued debt in the form of Treasuries. Foreign governments (most notably China) which were generally getting richer selling us stuff loaded up. The whole scheme is similar to buying a toy from the store, then having the store lend you money to buy another toy… ad infinitum: hardly a sensible long-term plan for financial solvency.

Now, everyone knows we run deficits. But not everyone knows that the deficits we publish are unbelievably understated. Corporations, in order to qualify for generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) have to count their pension and healthcare expenses for retirees.

Uncle Sam doesn’t.

John Williams of www.shadowstats.com notes that official US deficit statistics do NOT include net…
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Phil's Favorites

Why Everyone is Selling Their Tech Stocks

 

Why Everyone is Selling Their Tech Stocks

Courtesy of The Reformed Broker

5:30pm ET LIVE premiere today – Subscribe for the alert!

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including:

  • Tech Selloff – “To call this earnings season a blowout would be an understatement.”
  • Business Media – The WS...


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Zero Hedge

WTI Dips After Big Surprise Build In Gasoline Inventory

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Amid all the chaos in equity markets, oil managed to bounce back to modest gains on the day with WTI as a weaker dollar offset some concerns of a growing pile up of crude in the U.S. Gulf Coast as refineries there cut runs in response to the Colonial Pipeline shutdown.

Traders are expecting “a gradual resolution to the Colonial Pipeline shutdown,” according to Louise Dickson, an analyst at consultant Rystad Energy.

“The market is again looking to Asia, Covid-19 cases, and the next signals for oil demand outlook.&r...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:47:49 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Bitcoin ambitions ...



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:48:34 PM

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Comment: PMI juiced back up ...



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:49:42 PM
...

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Digital Currencies

China's digital currency could be the future of money - but does it threaten global stability?

 

China’s digital currency could be the future of money – but does it threaten global stability?

The Ys and wherefores. AnaKins27

Courtesy of Daniel Broby, University of Strathclyde

China is making promising progress with testing its digital yuan currency. It has announced the success of a pilot in Suzhou City, near Shanghai in eastern China, where 181,000 consumers were given ¥55 (&poun...



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Biotech/COVID-19

US support for waiving COVID-19 vaccine patent rights puts pressure on drugmakers - but what would a waiver actually look like?

 

US support for waiving COVID-19 vaccine patent rights puts pressure on drugmakers – but what would a waiver actually look like?

A COVID-19 surge has pushed hospitals in India beyond their capacity. A stadium in New Delhi was being used as a makeshift ward on May 2, 2021. Getty Images

Courtesy of Dalindyebo Shabalala, University of Dayton

The U.S. and Europe are debating waiving patent rights for COVID-19 vaccines, a move that could allow more companies to produce the vaccine around the world. But it’s not as simpl...



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Politics

If China's middle class continues to thrive and grow, what will it mean for the rest of the world?

 

If China's middle class continues to thrive and grow, what will it mean for the rest of the world?

Over the past few decades, hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens have become part of the middle class. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Courtesy of Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

China’s large and impressive accomplishments over the past four decades have spurred scholars and politicians to debate whether the decline of the West – including the ...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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