Posts Tagged ‘Groundhog Day’

Testy Tuesday – Back to our Bounce Levels?

Too tricky to call!

We're trying to be bullish now, so we don't complain about stick saves and we got a nice one into yesterday's close and another one in the futures, which were down about 50 at 3am – but it still looks like BS to me.

On Thursday morning I said: "Our 5% "must hold levels" remain:  Dow 10,165, S&P 1,088, Nas 2,200, NYSE 7,000 and RUT 620 with 3 of 5 below = BAD!"  We got the Dow, S&P and the NYSE back over the line yesterday and now we need the Nasdaq and the Russell to show us the money and catch up.  Of course, this is just our "averting disaster" levels – we haven't even broken our "weak bounce" targets of: Dow 10,300, S&P 1,105, Nasdaq 2,225, NYSE 7,100 and Russell 625 that the 5% rule predicted in last Monday's post

Last Wednesday I asked the question, is it weakness or good old fashioned consolidation?  My premise was that commodities were overvalued and we were due for some rotational correction, which was GOOD and HEALTHY.  The market still has much to prove and we are still pursuing disastrous economic policies that will all end in tears but, in the meantime, we can still party like it's 1999 as long as we know where the nearest exit is – and that's what our Disaster Hedging is all about. 

We took positions on DXD and QID yesterday as the weak bounce we got was a good chance to establish new hedges and I'm hoping we get another push in commodities so we can short some of them.  EDZ is getting interesting again, back at $5.65, about 10% away from our sweet spot ($5) for taking up a position but we may hit them early if the US indexes can't provide some leadership this week.  As you can see from Trader Mike's charts – we have plenty of resistance to get through and we're still waiting to see a rise on anything but weak volume to give us more confidence.    

Germany gave our confidence a small boost this morning as Retail Sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, rose 0.8 percent from November, when they dropped a revised 1.7 percent.  Germany’s government this month raised its forecast for 2010 economic growth to 1.4 percent from 1.2…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , ,




 
 
 

ValueWalk

Ray Dalio Urges 'Beautiful Deleveraging' of Police Departments

By The Stonk Market. Originally published at ValueWalk.

During a YouTube livestream from a bathroom at an undisclosed location, Ray Dalio looked into the camera and reminded viewers, “I’m not just rich, I’m also socially relevant.”

“I’m looking at these protests, and these calls to defund the police, thinking ’how can I insert myself into this conversation?’ That’s when I realized that police departments need a beautiful deleveraging,” said Dalio. “And I swear this isn’t just the Ambien talking.”

“Don’t get me wrong – I love surveillance, obvi...



more from ValueWalk

Phil's Favorites

Why are white supremacists protesting the deaths of black people?

 

Why are white supremacists protesting the deaths of black people?

A member of the far-right Boogaloo Bois group walks next to protestors in Charlotte, N.C., on May 29, 2020. Logan Cyrus/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Matthew Valasik, Louisiana State University and Shannon Reid, University of North Carolina – Charlotte

As protests...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Orphaned Silver Is Finding Its Parent

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

This article examines the prospects for silver, which has been overlooked in favour of gold. Due to the economic and monetary consequences of the coronavirus lockdowns and the earlier turning of the credit cycle, there is an increasing likelihood of a severe and sustained downturn that will require far more monetary expansion to deal with, favouring the prospects of both gold and silver returning to their former monetary roles.

...

more from Tyler

Biotech/COVID-19

COVID-19: A Data-Driven Analysis

 

COVID-19: A Data-Driven Analysis

By John Mauldin and Mike Roizen, MD 

Should you wear a mask in public? This seemingly simple question immediately generates emotional, political, and social anxiety.

It is just one of many provocative questions COVID-19 is forcing upon us. They should be simple, data-driven policy issues but many are not.

Today’s letter is in a different format from the usual Thoughts from the Frontline. As long-time readers know, I am in frequent (and lately almost daily) contact with Dr. Mike Roizen, emeritus head of wellness at the famous Cleveland Clinic, member of the Cleveland Clinic’s leadership team, and author of many books which, thanks ...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

The Technical Traders

WOW, look at this huge setup unfolding in S&P 500. Squeeze the FOMO !!

Courtesy of Technical Traders

If you have FOMO on the stock market you better watch this video because it will make you feel better if what is unfolding is exactly what I have been talking about for the past week. The Short/FOMO Squeeze!

I offer membership services for active traders, long-term investors...



more from Tech. Traders

Kimble Charting Solutions

Is the 39 Year Treasury Bond Bull Market Over?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

10 Year US Treasury Bond Yield “inverted” Chart

This chart should look familiar, as I’ve shared and updated it a few times to alert clients and readers.

It is the 10 Year US Treasury Yield Chart… inverted.

As you know, bond yields and price move in opposite directions. So this is a way to analyze and think about bonds. And as I’ve pointed out before, inverted charts can also reduce bias.

As you can see, bond yields created the largest reversal pattern in decades. When inverted (as this chart is), yields look like bond prices. So this is action is very bearish for bond prices on a long-term historic...



more from Kimble C.S.

Chart School

Silver volume says something is near boiling point

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Fundamentals are important, but they must show up in the chart. And when they do and if they may matter, it is a good sign if price and volume waves show a change of character.

The Point and Figure chart below is readtheticker.com version of PnF chart format, it is designed to highlight price and volume waves clearly (notice the Volume Hills chart).

Silver ETF volume is screaming at us! The price volatility along with volume tells us those who have not cared, are starting to, those who are wrong are adjusting, and those who are correct are loading up. Soon the kettle will blow and the price of silver will be over $20. 

Normally silver suffers in a recession, maybe this time with trillions of paper money being creat...

more from Chart School

Lee's Free Thinking

US Southern States COVID19 Cases - Let's Give Credit Where Due

 

US Southern States COVID19 Cases – Let’s Give Credit Where Due

Courtesy of  

The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.

And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...



more from Lee

Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



more from Bitcoin

Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



more from Our Members

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

more from Promotions

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.