H1N1 Update
by ilene - December 30th, 2009 11:27 am
H1N1 Update: Watching and Waiting
by Ilene with guest expert Dr. Henry Niman at Recombinomics
Watching and Waiting
Although the numbers of new cases of swine flu have been declining in many regions, including the United States, it is too early to know whether or not there will be subsequent waves of disease.
"Based on my experience with new diseases and the lessons learned from past pandemics, I think we should remain cautious and observe the evolution of the pandemic over the next six to 12 months before declaring victory," World Health Organization Director General Margaret Chan tells Swiss newspaper Le Temps. (World Health Official Says Swine Flu Still a Threat)
Although the WHO is taking a cautious approach, changes in the virus’s genome that increase its virulence and resistance to Tamiflu are becoming more common. Dr. Henry Niman, expert in flu virus evolution, believes another wave of flu illnesses will occur in early 2010. In addition, he believes resistance to Tamiflu will become "fixed," similarly to how this genetic change evolved in the seasonal H1N1 virus. (See Flu Update: Tamiflu resistance and Ukraine update, and Efficacy of Roche’s Flu Drug Tamiflu In Doubt, by David Phillips.)
WHO: H1N1 swine flu pandemic will stick around for another year
The World Health Organization warned government health authorities to remain vigilant on the H1N1 swine flu pandemic, saying the virus could mutate before vaccines can help it dissipate.
The World Health Organization is confident that the H1N1 swine flu pandemic will be under control in a year’s time – however, WHO officials warned global governments to remain vigilant for any mutations in the troublesome bug.
Dr. Niman believes this wave will be more severe than the previous two--but not due to random mutations. Rather, this will result from the process of recombination. Due to recombination, increasingly greater transmission of aggressive variants (D225G, D225E and D225N) and Tamiflu-resistant viruses will occur.
Ukraine
I’ve reprinted two recent articles at Recombinomics, with my comments in blue.
The WHO Surprise on D225G / D225N H1N1 Fatalities, Recombinomics Commentary
After considering the current available virological, epidemiological and clinical findings and following discussions on an earlier draft with WHO and its European-based Collaborating Centre ECDC has come to a preliminary formulation namely that the G222D/N
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H1N1: Hitting the Young, Riskier for the Old
by ilene - November 4th, 2009 1:12 pm
Very interesting update on the H1N1 flu. A recent study shows that while younger people are more likely to contract the flu, those over 50, if hospitalized, are more likely to die. Oddly perhaps, obesity appears to be a risk factor for hospitalization. – Ilene
H1N1: Hitting the Young, Riskier for the Old
By Alice Park, courtesy of TIME
As the number of H1N1 cases continues to climb in the U.S., researchers are collecting more and more data on the spread of the pandemic flu and getting a clearer picture of its victims — who is most vulnerable to H1N1, how the most severe cases progress and which risk factors tend to contribute to life-threatening disease. That data is now helping public-health officials identify some critical H1N1 trends, which may enable them to treat patients more effectively and hopefully control the disease as it peaks in the coming months.
The latest study, published this week in the Journal of the American Medical Association, offers a snapshot of 1,088 H1N1 cases in California that were severe enough to require hospitalization — or resulted in death — between April 23 and Aug. 11 of this year. Experts at the California Department of Public Health, who led the study, say their findings are largely in line with the growing body of data on the worldwide pandemic flu, confirming, for instance, that the 2009 H1N1 flu disproportionately affects younger patients. The California research team found that the median age of hospitalized H1N1 patients was 27, much lower than the median age of seasonal-flu sufferers. (See what you need to know about the H1N1 vaccine.)
While H1N1 infection results in mild or moderate disease in most patients — indeed, the most severe cases account for a small proportion of overall infections — a subset of patients are harder hit, the data show. And in those patients, the disease can often quickly become life-threatening. "The major point of our findings is that there has been a lot of perception that this is a mild disease, and a lot of people may be ambivalent about vaccination," says Dr. Janice Louie, a public-health medical officer at the California Department of Public Health and the study’s lead author. "But for those patients who were hospitalized, 30% required intensive care. This is something that clinicians should be aware of when patients walk into their clinic or office…
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SOME WARNING SIGNS FOR MR. MARKET
by ilene - August 31st, 2009 7:21 pm
SOME WARNING SIGNS FOR MR. MARKET
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
Courtesy of David Rosenberg:
SOME WARNING SIGNS FOR MR. MARKET
• The market has gone nowhere over the last three trading days despite what was being construed on bubblevision as unrelenting good news (home prices, house sales, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, Bernanke’s reappointment) — any other time in the last five months, these “green shoots’ would have turned the equity screens green. Could be a sign that a lot of good news is already being discounted.
• While it is often reported that over 70% of S&P 500 companies beat their 2Q earnings estimates, only 46% did so meaningfully. Not only that, but only 23% significantly beat their top-line revenue projections. See page C2 of the WSJ (The Rally Revenue Forgot).
• Leading stocks have been seeing reduced trading volumes of late.
• VIX futures and the put/call ratio on the S&P 500 have shot upwards in the past few sessions.
• The ECRI leading economic indicator fell 0.4% in the latest week, the first decline in six weeks and only the second falloff in the past eighteen.
• Sentiment is far too bullish — to an extreme level. A sentiment index quoted in today’s NYT business section is now 89% bullish, the same as it was in October 2007; at the March lows, it was sitting at 2%. See Some Once-Bullish Analysts See an End to Market Rally on page B1 of the Monday NYT.
• Corporate insiders sold nearly 31 times more stock than they bought in August (TrimTabs data) — the long run average is 7x and it was 2x at the lows (apparently a heck of a buying opportunity at that time).
• Small-cap stocks are down for back-to-back weeks and Chinese equities are on a four-week losing streak. Finally, the market has turned in the precise same 50% advance over the same 117 time period that it enjoyed coming off the 1929 lows — that rally ended despite all the hype at the time and the market lost more than 50% in the ensuing year.
• Of course, there are the negative seasonals too — since 1950, the S&P 500 is down 1% in September, on average, and has declined twice as often as it has rallied during the month.
• The H1N1 flu is a clear obstacle. This
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.