Posts Tagged ‘heavy crude’

If We Can’t Get Oil from Mexico…

If We Can’t Get Oil from Mexico…

mexico - tbiCourtesy of Lawrence Delevingne at Clusterstock

This was originally posted at The Oil Drum, and has been reprinted under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.

*** 

The news from Mexico just continues to get worse with bad news from all three of their biggest oil fields, even as our perennial cornucopian talks of “a Mexican surprise.” As Gregor noted recently (h/t ft energysource) at the beginning of the year Cantarell was producing 862,000 bd and at the end of July this was down to 588,000 bd. The graph plotting decline continues to show a linear decent at the rate of 35,000 bd per month or roughly 100,000 bd every three months – giving it just 17-months at that rate (ending right at the end of next year) until there is nothing left. Somewhere in there the drop is likely to stabilize, but suddenly and soon the questions as to where the replacement hundreds of thousands of barrels are going to come from is going to stop being an almost academic exercise.

Mexico: Daily production from one-time super giant cantarell oilfield - tbi

The peak and decline of Cantarell – where Mexico once got most of its oil.

But they aren’t the only ones in trouble. Consider U.S. net imports from Mexico over the same period. That decline also looks pretty linear, with a projected intersection with zero in 2014, depending on where you draw the line.

 the oil drum, monthly us net imports from mexico
Net Imports From Mexico (EIA)

Mexico itself is not likely to be able to come up with much of an answer.

The President just changed the head of Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) as the revenues that the state gets from sale of its oil (making up nearly 40% of the federal budget) dropped 30% in the first half of the year. Current Mexican Government predictions that overall Mexican production will stabilize at 2.5 mbd over next year don’t reflect the collapse of Cantarell, and also fail to recognize that the promised increases in production from other fields are not reaching the goals set. It is only a few days since the production at Chicontepec was “evaluated” after falling some 12,000 bd short of target. This field is still in development, with ultimate production targeted at 550,000 to 700,000 bd by 2017, but as it is already 16%…
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Zero Hedge

China's Yuan Is Now Plunging Faster Than During 2015's Devaluation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Another China open, another lower renminbi fix, and another 2 handle plunge in offshore Yuan...

The People’s Bank of China set its daily reference rate for the yuan (dark red line in the chart above) weaker than the psychological level of 6.7 per dollar for the first time since August 2017, ...



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Phil's Favorites

Sacha Baron Cohen: is he wrong to make fools of the unwitting?

 

Sacha Baron Cohen: is he wrong to make fools of the unwitting?

Image courtesy of Channel 4

Courtesy of Ian Wilkie, University of Salford

“There is no such thing as bad publicity,” as the 19th-century showman and godfather of fake publicity P T Barnum may (or may not) have once said. But some high-ranking politicos caught up in Sacha Baron Cohen’s new television comedy venture, Who is America?, already appear to be regretting the publicity that their participation has generated.

The show repeats Baron Cohen’s now-familiar faux naïve presenter shti...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Wednesday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • RBC Capital raised the price target on CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) from $38 to $42. CF Industries shares closed at $42.73 on Tuesday.
  • Wedbush raised Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ: TSCO) price target from $65 to $77. Tractor Supply shares closed at $78.92 on Tuesday.
  • Wells Fargo lowered the price target for Visteon Corporation (NASDAQ: VC) from $146 to $137. Visteon shares closed at $131.71 on Tuesday.
  • Oppenheimer raised S...


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Chart School

S&P Firms Breakout As Tech Keep The Pressure On

Courtesy of Declan.

Given overnight news and Netflix disappointment I was surprised to see markets finish as strong as they did given comments on the economy by the Fed Chairman.

The S&P opened at support and 'engulfed' the prior day's trading; it's not a true bullish engulfing pattern as this is a reversal pattern and what we have is a breakout but it does contribute to a confirmation of the breakout.


The Dow Jones is inching towards channel resistance. In the context of other indices, it was a low key day...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Explodes Through Key Technical Resistance, Hits 7-Week High

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin has suddenly exploded over 10% higher, smashing through its 50-day moving average, above $7000 for the first time since early June...

BTC is now testing up towards its 100DMA, ramping over $600 in 30 minutes...

And breaking its longer-term downtrend too...

The rest of the crypto space has gone along for the ride... ...



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Biotech

How summer and diet damage your DNA, and what you can do

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How summer and diet damage your DNA, and what you can do

Bright sun and fatty foods are a bad recipe for your DNA. By Tish1/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Adam Barsouk, University of Pittsburgh

Today, your body will accumulate quadrillions of new injuries in your DNA. The constant onslaught of many forms of damage, some of which permanently...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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