Posts Tagged ‘HMC’

Tumultuous Tuesday – Funds Tend to Short Ten-Year Treasuries

Societe Generale is out with the latest edition of their hedge fund watch and in it we see that they’ve found hedge funds to have the "shortest position EVER on bonds."

Well, ever is since 2005 but still, hedge funds now have more than 270,000 short contracts on the 10-year Treasury Bond and that’s not even counting PSW Members and their TBT positions (ultra-short the 20-year) so we are either twice as smart as hedge funds or twice as dumb – either way, it looks like it’s coming to a head!

SocGen also reports large short positions in 30-year TBills too with a net short there of about 100,000 contracts and the Bank concludes that funds are also "strong net sellers of the Yen (50K net short) and buyers of US Dollars."  Short positions in the Euro are being reduced now that we’re near my $1.30 target but this is a critical line for the Euro and we could still break 10% lower if it doesn’t hold, I mentioned our Euro play in the Weekend Wrap-Up so I won’t get into it here but what a day we had yesterday already! 

According to Market Folly, hedge funds are also now net sellers of equities with long/short equity funds are now around 25% net long, which is definitely below their historical average of 35-40% net long.  Folly also sees that, according to CFTC data, many hedgies have been adding to shorts in S&P futures. Whether they are simply selling longs to lock in some profit or making a market timing call, one thing is clear: hedge funds are definitely cautious in this market.  Following the funds has been profitable this year as they are up 13% year-to-date after the Hedge Fund Generals Index was up 69% last year.     

PSW members did their best to avoid temptation yesterday despite the "rally" (that failed to make it back to Thursday’s highs on low volume) and despite the "fabulous" auto numbers that CNBC et al could not stop fawning over.  Indeed the statistics were so good they were – RIDICULOUS – Chrysler up 25%, DIA up 18.8%, F up 24.7%, GM up 6.4%, HMC up 12.5%, Hyundai up 30%, Kia up 17.3% and TM up 24.4%.  This caused me to comment to Members:

OK, now I may be an old fuddy-duddy but I’m counting less than 1M cars sold in a month in this group and it seems to


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Thrilling Thursday Morning

8,200!

Finally we make the target we discussed since the beginning of the month but, sadly, it took another shot of Federal stimulus to get us there.  Now what?  I did say at the time that I thought it would be a short-term top as 8,200 is the 5% rule bottom of the 8,650 mid-range (8,217 to be exact) that we expected to get back to in May but we didn't expect to get there without a pullback test of 7,632.  Heck, we haven't even tested 7,900 properly since our very brief visit to 7,699 on the 21st.   I didn't count that as a test as it was brief and 1% off our mark but, since then, the market sure has acted like it aced the test and is ready to move up to the next set of levels.

As we can see from David Fry's chart of the S&P, the S&P is hitting very serious resistance at about the 885 mark and that ties right in with Dow 8,250 and Nas 1,717, which is our first US index to hit the 40% mark.  Our other 40% levels will take some work as we're looking for Dow 8,413, S&P 946, NYSE 6,232 and Russell 514.  The Dow and the Russell have the best chance of getting there but we'll have to see as, at the moment, the Nasdaq is more of an outlier at the moment.  We need to keep an eye on the Nasdaq leadership:  GOOG, AAPL, RIMM, AMZN, EBAY, ORCL, INTC…  for signs of weakness.  If they can't keep it going, the entire market rally may falter here.

XOM missed by .03 this morning but still earned .92 per share and seem to be forgiven for it.  While profits are down 58% from last year, last year was $10.9Bn so $4.6Bn may be disappointing but oil back over $50 does allow the company to project better times ahead (gee, maybe that's WHY oil is at $51.50 this morning).  I wouldn't touch them with a 10-foot pole as they did beat revenue forecasts by 20% ($64Bn vs $54Bn) which indicates the company is doing a lousy job of controlling costs and may face disaster if the economy doesn't improve or if oil collapses. 

While earnings have been pretty good, expectations have been really low.  This is like getting all excited about
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Phil's Favorites

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, Thomas Jefferson University

Over the past few years direct-t...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

U.S. & Euro Financials Lagging Big Time! Should Stock Bulls Be Concerned?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Historically its been positive to see Financials doing well at the same time the broad market is pushing higher! If financial stocks are lagging bit time, should stock bulls be concerned?

This chart compares banks and in the U.S. (XLF) & Europe (EUFN) to the S&P 500 over the past 18-months.

Currently, XLF is lagging the S&P by more than 11...



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Zero Hedge

Tesla "Adjusts" Prices Again: Hikes Model X, S Starting Prices, Slashes Cost Of Model 3

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Tesla, who wants you to know that they are definitely, certainly not facing a demand problem, has again dropped the price of its Model 3 while bumping up starting prices of its Model S and Model X in what appears to be a push to drive more Model 3 sales and higher margin Model S and X sales. The move comes days after the company reported record Q2 deliveries, according to ...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For July 16, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $5.00 per share on revenue of $9.13 billion.
  • Domino's Pizza, Inc. (NYSE: DPZ) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $2.02 per share on revenue of $836.92 million.
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. ...


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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Breaks Back Below $10k, Crypto-Crash Accelerates As Asia Opens

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update 2010ET: Having briefly stabilized after this morning's weakness, cryptos are tumbling once again as Asian markets open.

Bitcoin has broken below $10,000 again...

*  *  *

While all eyes are on Bitcoin as it slides back towards $10,000, the real mover in the last 12 hours has been Ethereum after...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Charts show us the golden brick road to high prices.

GLD Gann Angle has been working since 2016. Higher prices are expected. Who would say anything different, and why and how?

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



The GLD very wide channel shows us the way.
- Conservative: Tag the 10 year rally starting in 2001 to 2019 and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 10 years.
- Aggressive: Tag the 5 year rally starting in 1976 to 2019  and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 5 years.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if ima...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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