Posts Tagged ‘home prices’

U.S. Home Values to Drop by $1.7 Trillion This Year, Zillow Says

U.S. home values are poised to drop by more than $1.7 trillion this year amid rising foreclosures and the expiration of homebuyer tax credits, said Zillow Inc., a closely held provider of home price data.

This year’s estimated decline, more than the $1.05 trillion drop in 2009, brings the loss since the June 2006 home-price peak to $9 trillion, the Seattle-based company said today in a statement.

“It’s definitely going to continue into 2011,” Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television today. “The back half of 2010 looked horrible and 2011 should look like the mirror image of that.”

More here: U.S. Home Values to Drop by $1.7 Trillion This Year, Zillow Says – Bloomberg.

H/tip Tim Naegele


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Where is the Bottom for Housing? We May Not Know for Years

Where is the Bottom for Housing? We May Not Know for Years

Courtesy of John Lounsbury writing at Credit Writedowns 

How far are we from a bottom in U.S. home prices?  There are many estimates that there could be another 10% or more for the national average and median prices to decline.  This author estimated that 2010 had a most probable decline around 11% from December 2009, with further declines possible in 2011.  Little decline has actually been seen as prices are quite near where they were nine months ago.  However, in the past couple of months predictions of further price declines have increased.  Two weeks ago I pointed out that the outlook for home prices may be degrading.

20% Price Decline to the Bottom?

Barry Ritholtz provides the following chart, originally from the New York Times, but updated for The Big Picture by Steve Barry.

For larger image, click on graph.

This decline is certainly within the possible limits I have discussed earlier in the year (see here and here) but the projection curve drawn by Steve Barry shows a much more gradual drop to the bottom than I have envisioned. I estimate that he is showing another 3.5 to 4 years to get 90% of the way there and 5-6 years to fully bottom out. My thinking has been that the drop to the final bottom will be much quicker, driven by the weight of foreclosures over the next one to two years.  However, current market conditions are causing me to reconsider.

Could Housing Go Below “Normal”?

What has not been considered by either Barry or me is the recurrence of another depression for housing, such as occurred from WW I to WW II. What sort of economic disaster would cause home prices to decline 55% to 60% from here? That is what would happen if the decline reproduced the 1920 bottom.

Or, asking a different question: What sort of economic disaster would result if home prices declined 55% to 60% from here? In such severe deflation, most mortgagors would default and every mortgage lender would be insolvent. There would be no future TARP or other shenanigan that could accommodate that eventuality.  This will be discussed further later in the article.

Under Water Mortgages

Calculated Risk has an excellent post about underwater mortgages. CR states that 4.1 million homeowners owe 50% or more than their house…
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Take It From Someone Who Called the Housing Crash

Take It From Someone Who Called the Housing Crash (and its victims) in 2005, We Are About Midway Through the Downturn, If That Far

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton at Zero Hedge 

Bloomberg reports US Home Prices Fall Again:

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) — U.S. home prices dropped 3.3 percent in July from a year earlier, the eighth consecutive decline, as foreclosed properties flooded the market.

Prices fell 0.5 percent from June, the Federal Housing Finance Agency in Washington said in a report today. Economists had projected prices to fall 0.2 percent from the previous month, based on the average of 15 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The agency revised the previously reported May-to-June decline to 1.2 percent from 0.3 percent.

Foreclosures are boosting the supply of available properties and reducing prices, even as mortgage rates tumble to record lows. The time it would take to clear the market of homes for sale was 12.5 months in July, the highest in more than a decade of data, according to the National Association of Realtors. Banks seized a record 95,364 properties from delinquent borrowers in August, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based seller of housing data.

This should be of no surprise to anyone that reads the BoomBust or follows me regularly. I’ve been warning about the crash for over 5 years now, and those who feel we are nearing a bottom need to take out their spreadsheets and plug in some historical numbers.

 

Paying Subscribers are welcome to download the mortgage and credit template that was used in the original US (Don’t) Stress (US) tests, otherwise known as SCAP. We have taken the liberty to update the template on a periodic basis for the government, since it appears they are not forcing the banks to do so :-) SCAP Assumptions Updated_09082010 Web Version. This model shows a weakness in the Case Shiller method of following prices in that the CS doesn’t include investment properties (usually the first to go into foreclosure), new construction, and REOs. As a matter of fact, Case Shiller actually looked slightly rosy as of late. The following graphs were generated from  SCAP Assumptions Updated_09082010 Web Version..

Notice how the federal numbers show falls where CS doesn’t. Signs on the street tell me the federal numbers…
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Home Prices Drop in 36 States; Beazer Warns on Orders; 8 Million Foreclosure-Bound Homes to Hit the Market; Prices to Stagnate for a Decade

Home Prices Drop in 36 States; Beazer Warns on Orders; 8 Million Foreclosure-Bound Homes to Hit the Market; Prices to Stagnate for a Decade

Courtesy of Mish 

The small upward correction in home prices from multiple tax credit offerings died in July. Worse yet, inventory of homes for sale as well as shadow inventory both soared. 8 million foreclosure-bound homes have yet to hit the market according to Morgan Stanley.

Home Prices Drop in 36 States

CoreLogic reports Growing Number of Declining Markets Underscore Weakness in the Housing Market without Tax-Credit Support

CoreLogic Home Price Index Remained Flat in July

SANTA ANA, Calif., September 15, 2010 – CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), a leading provider of information, analytics and business services, today released its Home Price Index (HPI) that showed that home prices in the U.S. remained flat in July as transaction volumes continue to decline. This was the first time in five months that no year-over-year gains were reported. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales showed no change in July 2010 compared to July 2009. June 2010 HPI showed a 2.4 percent* year-over-year gain compared to June 2009.

"Although home prices were flat nationally, the majority of states experienced price declines and price declines are spreading across more geographies relative to a few months ago. Home prices fell in 36 states in July, nearly twice the number in May and the highest since last November when national home prices were declining," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI incorporates more than 30 years worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 55 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming), and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, which provides a more accurate "constant-quality" view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices and median sales prices available covering 6,208 ZIP codes (58 percent of total U.S. population), 572 Core Based Statistical Areas (85 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,027 counties (82 percent of total U.S. population) located in all


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Freddie Mac Announces 95LTV loans, Re-bubble – With This Option You Too Can Join the Underwater Club In As Little As Three Months!!!

Freddie Mac Announces 95LTV loans, Re-bubble – With This Option You Too Can Join the Underwater Club In As Little As Three Months!!!

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton

This is part one of my update on residential real estate mortgages, whose credit conditions have seen a marked improvement over the past year. Of course (yes, you know  there is always a but), I believe the improvement is the result of the rampant government intervention in the mortgage markets. As we shall see in part two for this update, even with rampant intervention some of the major mortgage institutions are so sick as to appear to be beyond mere assistance. Brace yourself for Financial Meltdown 2.0, open source edition.

Is it really a Housing Double Dip if Conditions Never Stopped Getting Worse?

Many analysts have speculated housing would reenter a “double dip” courtesy of falling home prices, decreasing home sales, increasing housing inventory, and other issues that have not been resolved since the collapse of the housing market began nearly three years ago.  Inevitably, housing policy at the federal level has completely failed to support any regeneration of demand.

Mortgage Rates Can’t Find Rock Bottom: WSJ

  • The Freddie Mac survey of 30 year mortgage rates has shown new record lows in rates for 11 straight weeks
  • 15, 10, and 5 year rates have also continued their free fall as employment data fails to ease fear in the housing market

Figure 1: Courtesy of Freddie Mac

Figure 2: Courtesy of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Branch

Figure 3: Courtesy of the National Association of Realtors

Housing Prices Climb amid Falling Home Sales (the government’s hidden bid at work): CBS

  • Foreclosures continue to increase, July home sales fell by 27%, employment conditions are not getting better, and home prices found a way to rise 7%
  • Robert Shiller claims the San Francisco market is “booming” after climbing 21% since 2009 (but don’t ask about the record drops in 2008)
  • If you are wondering where your unemployed neighbor is spending all of his free time, check and see if there is a distressed homeowners convention in town

Figure 4: Courtesy of the National Association of Realtors

Federal Reserve Still Watching Foreclosure Data: International Market News

  • Average property vacancies have increased from 114 days in 2006 to 954 days in 2010


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THE ANSWER TO A HOUSING RECOVERY: LOWER PRICES

THE ANSWER TO A HOUSING RECOVERY: LOWER PRICES

housing marketCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

The simple economics behind the situation in housing is beginning to become more apparent as the weeks go by. As we’ve noted for several years now the primary problem in the US housing market remains one of supply and demand.  As the jobs market continues to weaken, deflation takes hold of the US economy and the shadow inventory floods the market the math here remains simple enough for an Econ 101 student to understand. In order for the housing market to build a firm foundation that does not require government aid we will need to see a reduction in prices. In a recent research report Merrill Lynch described just how extreme the supply/demand imbalance has become in recent months and years:

“The collapse in housing demand means that it likely will take even longer to clear the inventory of homes for sale. In the new market, builders have continued to slash construction, maintaining incredibly lean inventories, and yet there is still supply of 9.1 months. Even more worrisome, however, is the existing home market where inventory is still on a decisive uptrend. As such, it takes 12.5 months to clear the inventory at the July sales pace. This widening gap between housing demand and supply means that construction likely will remain depressed and prices will dip lower (Chart 5).”

mer1 THE ANSWER TO A HOUSING RECOVERY: LOWER PRICES

More worrisome is the huge increase in shadow inventory that Merrill expects:

“The inventory of existing homes for sale is set to increase further as “shadow inventory” moves into the market. According to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association’s report, 9.1% of loans outstanding, which translates to 4.8 million, were seriously delinquent at the end of Q2 (capturing 90+ days delinquent or in the process of foreclosure). Unfortunately, this is not the end of the foreclosure pipeline. There were 2.6 million of mortgages either 30 or 60 days delinquent (Chart 6). It is likely that re-defaults from failed modifications — there have been 616,839 failed HAMP modifications – have contributed to early stage delinquencies.”

mer2 THE ANSWER TO A HOUSING RECOVERY: LOWER PRICES

Based on Merrill’s estimates the housing market is unlikely to normalize before 2015.  The supply/demand imbalance is simply staggering at the current levels and is likely to deteriorate if the economy weakens further:

“We define a normal housing market to be one in which housing starts


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Rosenberg Explains Why Not One New Home Priced Over $750,000 Sold In July

Rosenberg Explains Why Not One New Home Priced Over $750,000 Sold In July

Political cartoon by Thomas Nast (1840 - 1902) depicting the 'Fine-Ass' Committee,' a group of Democratic Congressmen as donkeys, blowing financial bubbles after the Panic of 1873. (Photo by Kean Collection/Getty Images)

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The most damning words on the recent horrendous housing data come from David Rosenberg: and since he has long been spot on in his macro observations, the 15% or so in additional price losses anticipated, will make this depression a truly memorable one (we will investigate not only the surging supply side of the housing equation, but the plunging demand side in a later post), and will leave the Fed with absolutely no choice other than the nuclear option: "If the truth be told, if we are talking about reversing all the bubble appreciation that began a decade ago, then we are talking about another 15% downside from here. The excess inventory data alone tell us that this has a realistic chance of occurring…The high-end market, in particular, is under tremendous pressure. In fact, it is becoming non-existent. Guess how many homes prices above $750k managed to sell in July. Answer — zero, nada, rien; and for the second month in a row."

From today’s Breakfast With Rosie

Once again, the consensus was fooled. It was looking for 330k on new home sales for July and instead they sank to a record low of 276k units at an annual rate. And, just to add insult to injury, June was revised down, to 315k from 330k. Just as resales undercut the 2009 depressed low by 15%, new home sales have done so by 19%. Imagine that even with mortgage rates down 100 basis points in the past year to historic lows, not to mention at least eight different government programs to spur homeownership, home sales have undercut the recession lows by double-digits.

This is what we have been saying for some time, in the aftermath of a credit bubble burst and a massive asset deflation, trauma has set in. The rupture to confidence and spending from our central bankers’ and policymakers’ willingness to allow the prior credit cycle to go parabolic has come at a heavy price in terms of future economic performance. Attitudes towards discretionary spending, credit and housing have been altered, likely for a generation.

The scars have apparently not healed from the horrific experience with defaults, delinquencies and deleveraging of the past two years — talk about a horror flick in 3D. The number…
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HOME PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH

HOME PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture had this excellent chart earlier this afternoon that clearly gives a 30,000 foot view of the housing market.  I’ve shown a similar chart in comparison to annual inflation, but this also provides some perspective in terms of median household income and CPI for rent.  As you can clearly see, house prices are STILL more expensive that any other time in recent history:

Median Prices HOME PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH

Source: The Big Picture 


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Mass Delusion – American Style

Mass Delusion – American Style

Courtesy of Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.” – Charles Mackay - Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds

 

The American public thinks they are rugged individualists, who come to conclusions based upon sound reason and a rational thought process. The truth is that the vast majority of Americans act like a herd of cattle or a horde of lemmings. Throughout history there have been many instances of mass delusion. They include the South Sea Company bubble, Mississippi Company bubble, Dutch Tulip bubble, and Salem witch trials. It appears that mass delusion has replaced baseball as the national past-time in America. In the space of the last 15 years the American public have fallen for the three whopper delusions:

  1. Buy stocks for the long run
  2. Homes are always a great investment
  3. Globalization will benefit all Americans

Bill Bonner and Lila Rajiva ponder why people have always acted in a herd like manner in their outstanding book Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets: Surviving the Public Spectacle in Finance and Politics:

“Of course, we doubt if many public prescriptions are really intended to solve problems. People certainly believe they are when they propose them. But, like so much of what goes on in a public spectacle, its favorite slogans, too, are delusional – more in the nature of placebos than propositions. People repeat them like Hail Marys because it makes them feel better. Most of our beliefs about the economy – and everything else – are of this nature. They are forms of self medication, superstitious lip service we pay to the powers of the dark, like touching wood….or throwing salt over your shoulder. “Stocks for the long run,” “Globalization is good.” We repeat slogans to ourselves, because everyone else does. It is not so much bad luck we want to avoid as being on our own. Why it is that losing your life savings should be less painful if you have lost it in the company of one million other losers, we don’t know. But mankind is first of all a herd animal and fears nothing more than not being part of the herd.”

Stocks for the


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John Paulson Will Be Wrong This Time

Courtesy of Jim Quinn at The Burning Platform

John Paulson Will Be Wrong This Time

We have arrived at critical juncture in the ongoing financial crisis. Have the government actions of the last year successfully spurred the animal spirits of Americans, resulting in a self-sustaining recovery?

The Obama administration and most of the mainstream media would answer yes. GDP has been positive for the last four quarters. Consumer spending has increased in five consecutive months. Corporate profits have been relatively strong. The country has stopped losing jobs. The missing piece has been a housing recovery.

No need to worry. Famous or infamous (depending on your point of view) $15 billion man John Paulson has assured the world that house prices will rise 8% to 10% in 2011. His basis for this forecast is that California prices have rebounded 8% to 10% in the last year, and this recovery will spread to the rest of the nation.

Maybe Paulson has teamed up with his buddies at Goldman Sachs to develop a product that guarantees a housing recovery. I tend to not believe anything that comes out of the mouth of anyone associated with Wall Street, but let’s assess the facts and see if they point to an impressive housing recovery in 2011.

The man who has been right on housing for the last ten years has been Yale Professor Robert Shiller. His analysis of U.S. housing prices from 1890 until present, which he first published in 2005, unequivocally proved that we were in the midst of the greatest housing bubble in history. At the same time, David Lereah, the chief economist (shill) for the National Association of Realtors, was pronouncing it was the best time to buy. He published his masterpiece of market tops, Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom? at the 2005 housing peak. He called a bottom in January 2007, and the NAR has continued to tell Americans it is the best time to buy for the last five years as prices have dropped 36% nationally.

 

Dr. Shiller continues to be the voice of reason when it comes to the housing market. He is doubtful that the recent “recovery” will continue:

    “Recent polls show that economic forecasters are largely bullish about the housing market for the next year or two. But one wonders about the basis for such a positive forecast. Momentum may be on the forecasts’


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Zero Hedge

Allies Resist US Call For Anti-Iran Naval Force, Fearing It Would Worsen Tensions

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

As tensions have continued to rise between the US and Iran, American officials continue to try to court allies to join a naval force to safeguard key shipping lanes off the coast of Iran. ...



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Phil's Favorites

Mauldin: The Problem With Keynesian Economics

Courtesy of John Mauldin via RealInvestmentAdvice.com

In The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, John Maynard Keynes wrote:

“The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.”

I think Lord Keynes himself would appreciate the irony that he has become the defunct economist under whose influence the academic and bureaucratic classes now toil, slaves to what has become as much a religious belief system as an economic theory.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper Is Pushing Higher Off 18-Year Rising Support, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold & Silver have been hot of late! Is Doc Copper about to do the same? Possible says Joe Friday.

This chart looks at Copper Futures over the past 27-years. Copper has spent the majority of that time inside of rising channel (1).

The decline over the past year has Doc Copper testing 18-year rising support and lows of the past 8-months at (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- Copper is attempting to rally off of long-term support at (3). As Copper is testing the bottom of this support channel, smart money hedgers are making a bi...



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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For July 19, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Upgrades
  • For American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG), William Blair upgraded the previous rating of Market Perform to the current rating Outperform. American International Gr earned $1.58 in the first quarter, compared to $1.04 in the year-ago quarter. American International Gr's market-cap stands at $48,358,299,270. At the moment, the stock has a 52-week-high of $56.49 and a 52-week-low of $36.16. American International Gr c...


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Chart School

RTT Plus Chart Book (Sneak Peak)

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The magic of support and resistance channel lines and how they direct price. Here are some chart disclosed to members via the RTT Plus service. All charts are a few weeks old. 


XAU bound by parallel channel lines.


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Newmont Mining support from Gann Angles.



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US Dollar index (DXY) dominate cycle ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Suddenly Panic-Bid, Bitcoin Back Above $10k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following further selling pressure overnight, someone (or more than one) has decided to buy-the-dip in cryptos this morning, sending Bitcoin (and most of the altcoins) soaring...

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Bitcoin surged back above $10,000...

Ethereum bounced off suppo...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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