Associated article: Hoover Institution Six Autumn Outliers
by ilene - September 7th, 2010 5:04 pm
Six Autumn Outliers
Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker
So that there’s no confusion, these aren’t predictions or forecasts, they are Outliers. I define an outlier as an event that is unlikely but possible. I’m not betting the farm on this stuff, but I wouldn’t fall out of my chair if any of it happened between now and the end of the year.
Enough hedging, let’s go:
1. Silver Explodes: Gold’s flashier little brother has had a decent go of it of late. Silver prices just broke above the $19.50-ish level for only the third time since November 2009, and you know what they say about "the third time". The big boys are usually buying gold right around now to get ahead of holiday demand and the wedding season in India, meanwhile the yellow metal is within melting distance of its high. If the Slingshot Effect that silver prices experience during gold rallies takes hold, look out above. My outlier here is that silver becomes the must-have investment of the season.
2. GOP Takes the House: It is conventional wisdom that Republicans are going to gain some ground at the mid-term elections this November, but I’m going to go a step further and say that the Dems will lose more than 40 seats and along with them, control of the House. Larry Sabato, a political scientist from the U of Virginia, has been quoted as saying that they could also lose as many as 8 or 9 senate seats as well. This ain’t your Daddy’s Midterms, or maybe it is – there are shades of Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America tour-de-force against Bill Clinton halfway through his 1st term back in ’94. Peeps is pissed right now.
3. Google Buys Twitter: This would be a real outlier if only it didn’t make so much damn sense. What in the hell are they waiting for in Mountain View, CA? They tried to build their own Twittery-thing (Google Buzz, anyone?), it wasn’t terrible but people don’t need two microblogging platforms even if Google’s did have the advantage of being bundled with Gmail. This is a doable deal for Google financially and as incredible a phenomenon as Twitter is, it’s still not a business yet – just a phenomenon. The Googster ($GOOG) could monetize it on Day 4.
4. Ballmer is Audi 5000: He’ll…
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Obama’s Job Approval Rating Sinks to New Low; Assessing the Odds Republicans Retake the House
by ilene - August 17th, 2010 7:39 pm
Obama’s Job Approval Rating Sinks to New Low; Assessing the Odds Republicans Retake the House
Courtesy of Mish
A recent Gallup survey shows Obama Sees New Lows in Job Approval
President Obama’s job approval rating dipped to 44% for the week of Aug. 9-15, the lowest weekly average of his administration by one percentage point.
The drop in Obama’s weekly average was driven by particularly low ratings near the end of the week, with record-low three-day rolling averages of 42% for Aug. 12-14 and Aug. 13-15 polling. Prior to this weekend, Obama’s three-day low had been 44%. Additionally, Obama’s disapproval rating reached 50% for the first time in the Aug. 13-15 average.
The overall pattern of Obama’s job approval ratings within partisan groups is fairly stable. The 68-point difference between Democrats’ and Republicans’ approval ratings for Aug. 9-15 is in line with what has been the case for many weeks, while his 39% approval among independents is down slightly from the past several weeks.
Average Seat Loss
Gallup reports Avg. Midterm Seat Loss 36 for Presidents Below 50% Approval
On a historical basis, the Democrats under Jimmy Carter suffered the slimmest seat loss of a party whose president was below 50% approval, losing 11 seats in the 1978 midterms. More recently, Bill Clinton in 1994 and George W. Bush in 2006 saw their parties lose enough seats in the House to turn party control over to the opposition party when they had less than majority approval.
Assessing the Odds
It is virtually certain Democrats will lose seats in the upcoming election. Averages suggest 36 seats. Republicans need to pickup 40.
The approval rating at 12% for Republicans is probably not much different than an approval rating at 35%. They were not voting Democratic anyway.
Independents hold the key.
Looking at the second chart provides some clues. Independents overwhelmingly went to Obama in the Presidential election, as did the youth vote. Obama has literally abandoned youths who turned out en masse for him. Health care "reform" was financed by sticking it to young healthy workers and small businesses.
More importantly, a 35 point drop in the approval rating by independents looks ominous.
It would be interesting to see the approval rating of Carter by independents when he only lost 11 seats.
Another factor is economic data has generally been grim.
- Initial unemployment
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Pelosi Tactic for Health-Care Vote Would Raise Legal Questions
by ilene - March 18th, 2010 2:53 pm
Pelosi Tactic for Health-Care Vote Would Raise Legal Questions
By Greg Stohr at Bloomberg
March 18 (Bloomberg) — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may be creating new grounds for a court challenge to the proposed U.S. health-care overhaul as she considers using a mechanism that would avoid a vote on the full legislation.
Pelosi said this week she might use a parliamentary technique that would “deem” House members to have passed the Senate’s health-care plan by voting for a more politically palatable package of changes.
Some legal scholars question whether that approach can be squared with the Constitution and the Supreme Court’s 1998 declaration that the two houses of Congress must approve “precisely the same text” before a bill can become a law.
“Any process that does not result in the House taking of yays and nays on statutory text identical to what passed the Senate is constitutionally problematic,” said Jonathan Adler, a professor who runs the Center for Business Law & Regulation at Case Western Reserve University’s law school in Cleveland… more here.>>
See Also Op-Toon’s Review:
With Polls Overwhelmingly Against Them, Democrats Invoke "Louise Slaughter Rule"
Associated article: Hoover Institution
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.