Posts Tagged ‘housing numbers’

Housing Data Split

Housing Data Split

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data

Bloomberg details:

Housing starts in the U.S. fell more than anticipated in December, while building permits unexpectedly jumped, signaling inclement weather may have kept builders away from worksites.

Work began on 557,000 houses at an annual rate, down 4 percent from November, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Permits, a sign of future construction, climbed to the highest level in a year.

The government’s extension and expansion of a tax credit for first-time buyers may help underpin demand in the first half of 2010, giving builders reason to ramp up new projects. The gain in permits, which are less influenced by weather, indicates an unseasonably cold and wet December probably prevented some work from getting started last month, according to economists like Maury Harris.

housing
 
Source: Census

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Housing Pumpers Are Out In Force

Here are Karl Denninger’s thoughts on the housing numbers that rallied the markets yesterday.  No surprises here.

Housing Pumpers Are Out In Force

housing bubblesFrom Marketwatch:

Resales have gained for four consecutive straight months, the longest streak of increases since 2004. "Momentum is building," said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

In other news July remains the last full month before school starts and spring and summer are always the strongest months for home sales.

The NAR is shameless.  After David Lereah wrote not one but two books pumping real estate right into the top and managed to suck in millions of Americans (then crush them) you’d think that the NAR would learn.

You’d be wrong.

There has never been a year where seasonality doesn’t matter to home sales, as any family with children will tell you – moving during the school year sucks and is avoided whenever possible.

Let’s see if Yun is forced to do the "Yum Yum" on those words when September – December’s numbers print.  I wouldn’t bet against that, given the delinquency numbers released yesterday.

 

 


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THE ONLY NEWS THAT MATTERED TODAY

THE ONLY NEWS THAT MATTERED TODAY

UPSCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Forget the seasonal strength in the housing numbers.  Jobless claims slightly better than expected?  Who cares.  UPS reported their earnings today.  That’s all you should care about.   UPS and FedEx are, in my opinion, the two best barometers of economic growth in the world.  While the market rips higher on “better than expected” earnings and the strong housing numbers they are completely overlooking the fact that UPS sees no signs of recovery.  As a middle man in almost every transaction it is nearly impossible to see a sharp recovery that UPS is not involved in.  CFO Kurt Kuehn had these comments on the call this morning:  

“Our trends so far in July show no material uptick in growth, We don’t have any confidence that either demand or activity is going to pick up substantially.”

And directly from the earnings release:

“The economic environment continues to be difficult. Declines in both our domestic and international businesses appear to be stabilizing but volumes will remain significantly below last year’s levels,” said Kurt Kuehn, UPS’s chief financial officer.

“Although declines in economic indicators are less dramatic than earlier in the year, questions remain as to when business activity will begin to strengthen,” he continued. “The business environment in the third quarter should be similar to the second quarter.

FedEx airplaneMeanwhile, on the other side of the pond Deutsche Post DHL is reporting similar sentiment.  CEO Frank Appel says:

“We still don’t have a clear view of . . .further economic development. Though economic conditions haven’t worsened – with new business bustling and our strong market position in Asia – we are not yet seeing any substantial improvement.”

So, the stock market is now getting very euphoric while the underlying fundamentals still show no real sign of a strong recovery.  I’m making a list and checking it twice.  Although my S&P 1,000 call is still intact, it’s time to start planning for a tactical short position in this environment.  The fundamentals don’t rhyme with this market action in the last few weeks.

Photo: FedEx DC10, taken by Kevin McCoy, photo and license posted at Wikipedia.

 


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ValueWalk

McConnell Continues To Hold Up Covid Pandemic Relief

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

As Another 712K Get Pink Slips, McConnell Insists On More Corporate Giveaways in Lieu of Real Covid Pandemic Relief

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

McConnell Dismisses The Urgently Needed Covid Pandemic Relief

McConnell’s latest proposal offers far too little, too late for those most in need — not a penny for extra unemployment benefits, stimulus checks, or rental assistance, while doing nothing to ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Dow Industrials Test Super Breakout Price Level!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has survived several market scares over the past 5 decades, including the 1987 crash (Black Monday), Tech Bubble, Financial Crisis, and Coronavirus crash.

In a very noisy, news-driven world, sometimes it pays to simply zoom out on the charts and stop thinking about trading every headline.

Today’s chart is a “quarterly” chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (spanning the past 50 years). It includes some relevant Fibonacci price levels for active investors to consider; we apply Fibonacci to the quarterly lows of 1974 and the lows of 2003 and 2009 (that being 100%).

Note that the Dow Industri...



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Phil's Favorites

House Hearing: Wall Street Gets Bailed Out by Fed; Main Street Gets Sold Out

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Congresswoman Katie Porter

Sparks were flying throughout yesterday’s House Financial Services Committee hearing. After Fed Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin appeared before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, they were grilled for 2 more hours yesterday by members of the House Financial Services Committee. The atmosphere was far less cordial than the prior day, which wasn’t exactly tea and crumpets either.

There was good reason for the hostility. For the second time in a dozen years, another former G...



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Zero Hedge

"We Saw 10 Ambulances Driving To The Scene" - Port Warehouse Explodes In Bristol, "Multiple Casualties" Reported

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Another port warehouse has exploded, this time in the British city of Bristol, in the outer neighborhood of Avonmouth, where the city's port is located.

Emergency services from across the region are responding to the scene, with South Western Ambulance Service saying it was responding to a "se...



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Politics

Socialism is a trigger word on social media - but real discussion is going on amid the screaming

 

Socialism is a trigger word on social media – but real discussion is going on amid the screaming

‘Tug-of-words’ posts debating the merits of socialism versus capitalism are all over social media platforms. pxfuel

Courtesy of Robert Kozinets, USC Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism

The word “socialism” has become a trigger word in U.S. politics, with both positive and negative perceptions of it split alo...



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Chart School

Gold Chart Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold swing trade is due, lets review some charts to see if it is a viable move.

The seasonal period of gold is now upon us, gold should advance for the next 3 months.


Gold Gann Angle Chart ...


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Gold Channel Chart .. close up!



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Gold Channel Chart


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Biotech/COVID-19

Rapid COVID-19 tests can be useful - but there are far too few to put a dent in the pandemic

 

Rapid COVID-19 tests can be useful – but there are far too few to put a dent in the pandemic

Rapid tests for COVID-19 are easy to administer and give fast results. AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File

Courtesy of Bonnie LaFleur, University of Arizona and Katherine Ellingson, University of Ari...



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Digital Currencies

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

 

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

Courtesy of 

Call it the “Respectability Rally”…

A few reasons for Bitcoin’s return to the record highs. It’s about $18,500 as of this writing, matching the previous highs from 2017’s original explosion.

Reason one: It’s going up because it’s going up. Don’t scoff, this is the reason most things in the markets happen and then the explanations are called for afterwards. I’m in financial television, I have literally watched this process occur in real-time. The more something moves in a given direction, the more peop...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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