Posts Tagged ‘housing numbers’

Housing Data Split

Housing Data Split

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data

Bloomberg details:

Housing starts in the U.S. fell more than anticipated in December, while building permits unexpectedly jumped, signaling inclement weather may have kept builders away from worksites.

Work began on 557,000 houses at an annual rate, down 4 percent from November, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Permits, a sign of future construction, climbed to the highest level in a year.

The government’s extension and expansion of a tax credit for first-time buyers may help underpin demand in the first half of 2010, giving builders reason to ramp up new projects. The gain in permits, which are less influenced by weather, indicates an unseasonably cold and wet December probably prevented some work from getting started last month, according to economists like Maury Harris.

housing
 
Source: Census

Tags: , ,




Housing Pumpers Are Out In Force

Here are Karl Denninger’s thoughts on the housing numbers that rallied the markets yesterday.  No surprises here.

Housing Pumpers Are Out In Force

housing bubblesFrom Marketwatch:

Resales have gained for four consecutive straight months, the longest streak of increases since 2004. "Momentum is building," said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

In other news July remains the last full month before school starts and spring and summer are always the strongest months for home sales.

The NAR is shameless.  After David Lereah wrote not one but two books pumping real estate right into the top and managed to suck in millions of Americans (then crush them) you’d think that the NAR would learn.

You’d be wrong.

There has never been a year where seasonality doesn’t matter to home sales, as any family with children will tell you – moving during the school year sucks and is avoided whenever possible.

Let’s see if Yun is forced to do the "Yum Yum" on those words when September – December’s numbers print.  I wouldn’t bet against that, given the delinquency numbers released yesterday.

 

 


Tags: , , ,




THE ONLY NEWS THAT MATTERED TODAY

THE ONLY NEWS THAT MATTERED TODAY

UPSCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Forget the seasonal strength in the housing numbers.  Jobless claims slightly better than expected?  Who cares.  UPS reported their earnings today.  That’s all you should care about.   UPS and FedEx are, in my opinion, the two best barometers of economic growth in the world.  While the market rips higher on “better than expected” earnings and the strong housing numbers they are completely overlooking the fact that UPS sees no signs of recovery.  As a middle man in almost every transaction it is nearly impossible to see a sharp recovery that UPS is not involved in.  CFO Kurt Kuehn had these comments on the call this morning:  

“Our trends so far in July show no material uptick in growth, We don’t have any confidence that either demand or activity is going to pick up substantially.”

And directly from the earnings release:

“The economic environment continues to be difficult. Declines in both our domestic and international businesses appear to be stabilizing but volumes will remain significantly below last year’s levels,” said Kurt Kuehn, UPS’s chief financial officer.

“Although declines in economic indicators are less dramatic than earlier in the year, questions remain as to when business activity will begin to strengthen,” he continued. “The business environment in the third quarter should be similar to the second quarter.

FedEx airplaneMeanwhile, on the other side of the pond Deutsche Post DHL is reporting similar sentiment.  CEO Frank Appel says:

“We still don’t have a clear view of . . .further economic development. Though economic conditions haven’t worsened – with new business bustling and our strong market position in Asia – we are not yet seeing any substantial improvement.”

So, the stock market is now getting very euphoric while the underlying fundamentals still show no real sign of a strong recovery.  I’m making a list and checking it twice.  Although my S&P 1,000 call is still intact, it’s time to start planning for a tactical short position in this environment.  The fundamentals don’t rhyme with this market action in the last few weeks.

Photo: FedEx DC10, taken by Kevin McCoy, photo and license posted at Wikipedia.

 


Tags: , , , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Breaking contracts over coronavirus: Can you argue it's an 'act of God'?

 

Breaking contracts over coronavirus: Can you argue it’s an ‘act of God’?

The NBA suspended its season on March 11, citing the coronavirus risk. A force majeure clause in the NBA contract means players could lose money with each canceled game. AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli

Courtesy of Andrew Schwartz, University of Colorado Boulder

The coronavirus pandemic has prevented countless people from fulfilling their contracts, from basketball players to babysitters.

Could all of these people be sued for breach of contract, or are they e...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

5 Questions Bulls Need To Answer Now

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

In last Tuesday’s Technically Speaking post, I stated:

From a purely technical basis, the extreme downside extension, and potential selling exhaustion, has set the markets up for a fairly strong reflexive bounce. This is where fun with mat...



more from Tyler

Biotech/COVID-19

The new coronavirus emerged from the global wildlife trade - and may be devastating enough to end it

 

The new coronavirus emerged from the global wildlife trade – and may be devastating enough to end it

Government officers seize civets in a wildlife market in Guangzhou, China to prevent the spread of the SARS disease, Jan. 5, 2004. Dustin Shum/South China Morning Post via Getty Images

Courtesy of George Wittemyer, Colorado State University

COVID-19 is one of countless emerging infectious diseases that are zoonotic, meaning they originate in animals. ...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Members' Corner

Tinker, Tailor, Mobster, Trump

 

Tinker, Tailor, Mobster, Trump

What happens when a Confidential Informant becomes President?

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

...



more from Our Members

Kimble Charting Solutions

Fear Indicators Creating Huge Bearish Reversal Patterns This Month?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a rough month for Stocks and Crude Oil. Could these two indicators be suggesting that a panic in fear has run out of steam?

This 2-pack looks at the fear indicators in the Nasdaq (VXN) and Crude Oil (OVX).

Both were at the highest levels in years back in 2008. Both peaked in 2008, as they created monthly bearish reversal patterns.

Turing the page to March of 2020, the Nasdaq fear index could be double topping at t...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

Strategist Channels His Inner Elsa, Says Apple Investors Need To Let It Go

Courtesy of Benzinga

The "Frozen" character Elsa famously declared it's time to "let it go" when her dark secret has been discovered. Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management has a similar message to Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) investors.

'Absolutely' No Discretionary Spending

The market is guilty of "utterly underestimating" the ultimate economic impact the ...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Big moving Averages and macro investment decisions

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

When price is falling every one wonders where demand will come in.


RTT black screen Tv videos study the simplest measure of price (simple moving average). What has happen before guides us now. 














Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



more from Bitcoin

The Technical Traders

These Index Charts Will Calm You Down

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I put together this video that will calm you down, because knowing where are within the stock market cycles, and the economy makes all the difference.

This is the worst time to be starting a business that’s for sure. I have talked about this is past videos and events I attended that bear markets are fantastic opportunities if you can retain your capital until late in the bear market cycle. If you can do this, you will find countless opportunities to invest money. From buying businesses, franchises, real estate, equipment, and stocks at a considerable discount that would make today’s prices look ridiculous (which they are).

Take a quick watch of this video because it shows you ...



more from Tech. Traders

ValueWalk

Entrepreneurial activity and business ownership on the rise

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Indicating strong health of entrepreneurship, both entrepreneurial activity and established business ownership in the United States have trended upwards over the past 19 years, according to the 2019/2020 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Global Report, released March 3rd in Miami at the GEM Annual Meeting.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Benefit Of Entrepreneurial Activity ...

more from ValueWalk

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

more from Promotions

Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



more from Lee

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.