Posts Tagged ‘Howard Davidowitz’

DAVIDOWITZ: THERE IS NO RECOVERY IN THE CONSUMER

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

DAVIDOWITZ: THERE IS NO RECOVERY IN THE CONSUMER

Retail analyst Howard Davidowitz, discusses the ongoing problems in the consumer sector.  He remains incredibly bearish:

Source: Bloomberg


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Howard Davidowitz: WE ARE GOING NOWHERE!!!

Howard Davidowitz: WE ARE GOING NOWHERE!!!

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock/Business Insider 

The inimitable Howard Davidowitz hits Bloomberg.


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Ghosts of 1987

Very interesting discussion on high frequency trading. – Ilene

Ghosts of 1987

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

William Shakespeare:

I am a ‘fan’ of very few people in the money business. One of my favorite pundits is a frequent guest on Bloomberg Television, which I tend to watch off and on during the day on my computer screen: Joe Saluzzi. Another person for whom I always turn up the volume is Howard Davidowitz, the savvy and no-nonsense retail analyst.

Here is Joe Saluzzi’s excellent explanation for the ‘odd’ market behaviour which many traders have noted to me in the past few weeks.

But it was not until today that it ‘clicked’ in my mind that this is setting up like the market crash of 1987, for purely technical reasons. The volumes are so hugely dominated by ‘high frequency systems trading’ that if and when a dislocation occurs, and it may only take something trivial to set it off when the time comes, the market will gain a momentum to the downside that the government may not view so favorably and dismissively.

And in response to such a meltdown, one of the first things the Poseur-in-Chief might consider doing is replacing the current head of the SEC, Mary Schapiro, who has managed to become almost as useless as Christopher Cox, the SEC head under Bush. Granted, the SEC is an awful place to work, hob-nobbing with the wealthy while every swinging Congressman cuts your funding when not making personal calls to protect their campaign contributors. But really, the people of the US deserve much better from their government than franchised looting and organized mispricing of risk. It really is becoming that blatant.

 


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Davidowitz: What Recovery? The US Consumer Is Struggling

Note: If you find this post on the backup Phil’s Favorites site, click on the title for the videos at Jesse’s Cafe.  I have trouble posting videos other than YouTubes over there.  (It may be impossible). Thanks!  - Ilene

Davidowitz: What Recovery? The US Consumer Is Struggling

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

Howard Davidowitz is our favorite retail analyst.

Appearance versus Reality is the theme in the Enron Nation.

And Winners of the Retail Apocalypse: Amazon, Walmart, Kohls and Dollar Tree.
Personally I like Costco, Amazon, and Lowes, because even thought they may not have the very lowest price, they provide exceptional value and a little something ‘extra.’

David is probably right, because She-Who-Shops says he is, and is a hands-on expert.

 


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Howard Davidowitz Being Howard Davidowitz (Videos): Yahoo Tech Ticker December 2009

Howard Davidowitz Being Howard Davidowitz (Videos): Yahoo Tech Ticker December 2009

Courtesy of Trader Mark at Fund My Mutual Fund

We’ve been observing Howard Davidowitz for about 2 years now, and he is quite possibly (aside from Marc Faber) one of the most flamboyant speakers in the financial universe.  Agree, or disagree – he is a hoot to simply listen to.

2009

2008

While he is a retail analyst by trade, he talks the big picture and seems to have a lot better grasp on economic issues than the majority of the celebrated pundits.  That said, everything he is saying is being completely dismissed by the tsunami of paper dollars central banks are printing, and the "buy buy buy" punditry is back looking like "genius".  I thought there would be a disassociation between economics and market but wow, never in my wildest dreams did I think 9 straight months up… with no one fearing this won’t just be the 10th.  [April 3, 2009: The Current (and Coming) Disassociation Between Wall Street and Main Street]. 

At this point I am just viewing the market as a federally subsidized gambling parlor ("gambling for dummies" since all you need to watch is 1 entity, the US dollar) with free chips handed out by Ben Bernanke daily… very little to do with much of the real world anymore.

Anyhow…

We have 3 videos (about 4-6 minutes) each from Davidowitz below via Yahoo Tech Ticker; I believe he gets more agitated in each iteration.  Then again, Howard’s statis level seems to be "agitated". :)

(1) What Recovery? US Consumers Getting "Dramatically Worse"


According to the National Retail Federation, retail sales over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend were $41.2 billion, up slightly from a year ago, while about 195 million consumers shopped, up from 172 million last year.

Meanwhile, Coremetrics says the average online shopper spent 35% more on Black Friday vs. a year ago, while robust sales were predicted for Cyber


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The Worst Is Yet to Come

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

Le Café Américain

The Worst Is Yet to Come

One of the favorite retail analysts in the Cafe is Howard Davidowitz, and he is probably in the top ten overall. The accomplished shoppers in our crowd (predominantly the ladies for some reason, who have a canny sense of price and demand and store quality, whereas yours truly becomes overwhelmed by a numbing dread upon entering most retail establishments of the non-Home Depot or non-electronics persuasion) all tend to shake their heads in agreement when David speaks to the ups and downs of specific store chains and trends. I can think of no higher recommendation, for these are for the most part the front line consumers and they take their duties seriously.

Last night in speaking with a youngish acquaintance just completing law school (another one, alas) who was looking for advice on long term investments we observed that now is the time to remain liquid because ‘the worst is yet to come.’

In 1999 I began an intense study of market bubbles and crashes as mentioned before. This included buying contemporary magazines and newspapers and reading them to see what was going through people’s minds.

Today reminds me of the briefly sunny period in 1930-1 when most economists and public officials agreed that the Depression was already over and the economy was back on track. President Hoover dismissed a delegation of businessmen who came to Washington with ideas on stabilizing the economy with "Too late gentlemen, the slump is over."

There are few things from my childhood that I remember more vividly than grandmother’s comments regarding this false recovery. "If we knew what was coming, we would have killed ourselves." This from as strong a person as I have ever encountered, with a faith that would break rocks. The Great Depression left an indelible mark, or more accurately scar, on her entire family, and my father’s as well.

And I never heard the name "Franklin Roosevelt" from her lips without it being preceded by "God bless" followed by "he saved my family." Not all of her children unfortunately. She said she cried so much and so often that she was never able to cry again. And she did not, even at the end.

Of course it was the second half of the great stock decline after the 1929


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Zero Hedge

Experts Fear 'Suicide Wave' As The Social Fabric Of America Becomes "Unstitched"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Millions of Americans have just lost their jobs in the last several weeks due to the COVID-19 outbreak shutting down large swaths of the US economy. Households are coming under severe financial stress, with no savings, insurmountable debts, and job loss. Many are waiting for President Trump’s stimulus check to arrive in the mail, some have skipped out on their rent or ...



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ValueWalk

Pandemic-related deterioration may cause a drop in PMI

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In an intra Day note to investors, Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman, while commenting on the pandemic-related deterioration, said:

The major indices are all trading lower at midday following another choppy and bearish morning session on Wall Street. The continued exponential growth in the number of U.S. COVID-19 cases and the weak economic data have been weighing on investor sentiment, but stocks are holding up relatively well following yesterday’s bounce. The government jobs report was at the center of attention this morning following yesterday’s record number of new jobl...



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Phil's Favorites

Unmasking the Truth on Masks to Protect Against Coronavirus: Fire the Surgeon General

Courtesy of Pam Martens

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: April 3, 2020 ~

On March 23 we wrote this:For want of a mask the largest economy in the world has been gutted, with Goldman Sachs now projecting that U.S. GDP could contract by as much as 24 percent in the second quarter.” Now, in the past two weeks, 10 million Americans have filed claims for unemployment. Let that sink in, 10 million of our fellow citizens have l...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Depression Coming or Is the Bottom Already In? Joe Friday Says Your Answer Lies Here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are we headed towards a Depression or is the worst already behind us? In today’s world, comparisons to the great depression are easy to find.

Are the Depression concerns well founded or are the declines of late already pricing in a bottom?

In my humble opinion, this chart and the upcoming price action of this index will go miles and miles towards telling us if we are headed towards very tough times or if the huge declines of late are actually in a bottoming process.

This chart looks at the Thomson Reuters Equal Weighted Commodity Index on a monthly basis over the past 54 years. The index has been heading south, reflecting weakness in demand for basi...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Biotech/COVID-19

Antibodies in the blood of COVID-19 survivors know how to beat coronavirus - and researchers are already testing new treatments that harness them

 

Antibodies in the blood of COVID-19 survivors know how to beat coronavirus – and researchers are already testing new treatments that harness them

A person who has recovered from COVID-19 donates plasma in Shandong, China. STR/AFP via Getty Images

Ann Sheehy, College of the Holy Cross

Amid the chaos of an epidemic, those who survive a disease like COVID-19 carry within their bodies the secrets of an effective immune response. Virologists like me...



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The Technical Traders

Founder of TradersWorld Magazine Issued Special Report for Free

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Larry Jacobs owner and editor of TradersWorld magazine published a free special report with his top article and market forecast to his readers yesterday.

What is really exciting is that this forecast for all assets has played out exactly as expected from the stock market crash within his time window to the gold rally, and sharp sell-off. These forecasts have just gotten started the recent moves were only the first part of his price forecasts.

There is only one article in this special supplement, click on the image or link below to download and read it today!

...

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Chart School

Big moving Averages and macro investment decisions

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

When price is falling every one wonders where demand will come in.


RTT black screen Tv videos study the simplest measure of price (simple moving average). What has happen before guides us now. 














Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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