Posts Tagged ‘Howard Davidowitz’

DAVIDOWITZ: THERE IS NO RECOVERY IN THE CONSUMER

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

DAVIDOWITZ: THERE IS NO RECOVERY IN THE CONSUMER

Retail analyst Howard Davidowitz, discusses the ongoing problems in the consumer sector.  He remains incredibly bearish:

Source: Bloomberg


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Howard Davidowitz: WE ARE GOING NOWHERE!!!

Howard Davidowitz: WE ARE GOING NOWHERE!!!

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock/Business Insider 

The inimitable Howard Davidowitz hits Bloomberg.


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Ghosts of 1987

Very interesting discussion on high frequency trading. – Ilene

Ghosts of 1987

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

William Shakespeare:

I am a ‘fan’ of very few people in the money business. One of my favorite pundits is a frequent guest on Bloomberg Television, which I tend to watch off and on during the day on my computer screen: Joe Saluzzi. Another person for whom I always turn up the volume is Howard Davidowitz, the savvy and no-nonsense retail analyst.

Here is Joe Saluzzi’s excellent explanation for the ‘odd’ market behaviour which many traders have noted to me in the past few weeks.

But it was not until today that it ‘clicked’ in my mind that this is setting up like the market crash of 1987, for purely technical reasons. The volumes are so hugely dominated by ‘high frequency systems trading’ that if and when a dislocation occurs, and it may only take something trivial to set it off when the time comes, the market will gain a momentum to the downside that the government may not view so favorably and dismissively.

And in response to such a meltdown, one of the first things the Poseur-in-Chief might consider doing is replacing the current head of the SEC, Mary Schapiro, who has managed to become almost as useless as Christopher Cox, the SEC head under Bush. Granted, the SEC is an awful place to work, hob-nobbing with the wealthy while every swinging Congressman cuts your funding when not making personal calls to protect their campaign contributors. But really, the people of the US deserve much better from their government than franchised looting and organized mispricing of risk. It really is becoming that blatant.

 


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Davidowitz: What Recovery? The US Consumer Is Struggling

Note: If you find this post on the backup Phil’s Favorites site, click on the title for the videos at Jesse’s Cafe.  I have trouble posting videos other than YouTubes over there.  (It may be impossible). Thanks!  - Ilene

Davidowitz: What Recovery? The US Consumer Is Struggling

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

Howard Davidowitz is our favorite retail analyst.

Appearance versus Reality is the theme in the Enron Nation.

And Winners of the Retail Apocalypse: Amazon, Walmart, Kohls and Dollar Tree.
Personally I like Costco, Amazon, and Lowes, because even thought they may not have the very lowest price, they provide exceptional value and a little something ‘extra.’

David is probably right, because She-Who-Shops says he is, and is a hands-on expert.

 


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Howard Davidowitz Being Howard Davidowitz (Videos): Yahoo Tech Ticker December 2009

Howard Davidowitz Being Howard Davidowitz (Videos): Yahoo Tech Ticker December 2009

Courtesy of Trader Mark at Fund My Mutual Fund

We’ve been observing Howard Davidowitz for about 2 years now, and he is quite possibly (aside from Marc Faber) one of the most flamboyant speakers in the financial universe.  Agree, or disagree – he is a hoot to simply listen to.

2009

2008

While he is a retail analyst by trade, he talks the big picture and seems to have a lot better grasp on economic issues than the majority of the celebrated pundits.  That said, everything he is saying is being completely dismissed by the tsunami of paper dollars central banks are printing, and the "buy buy buy" punditry is back looking like "genius".  I thought there would be a disassociation between economics and market but wow, never in my wildest dreams did I think 9 straight months up… with no one fearing this won’t just be the 10th.  [April 3, 2009: The Current (and Coming) Disassociation Between Wall Street and Main Street]. 

At this point I am just viewing the market as a federally subsidized gambling parlor ("gambling for dummies" since all you need to watch is 1 entity, the US dollar) with free chips handed out by Ben Bernanke daily… very little to do with much of the real world anymore.

Anyhow…

We have 3 videos (about 4-6 minutes) each from Davidowitz below via Yahoo Tech Ticker; I believe he gets more agitated in each iteration.  Then again, Howard’s statis level seems to be "agitated". :)

(1) What Recovery? US Consumers Getting "Dramatically Worse"


According to the National Retail Federation, retail sales over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend were $41.2 billion, up slightly from a year ago, while about 195 million consumers shopped, up from 172 million last year.

Meanwhile, Coremetrics says the average online shopper spent 35% more on Black Friday vs. a year ago, while robust sales were predicted for Cyber


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The Worst Is Yet to Come

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

Le Café Américain

The Worst Is Yet to Come

One of the favorite retail analysts in the Cafe is Howard Davidowitz, and he is probably in the top ten overall. The accomplished shoppers in our crowd (predominantly the ladies for some reason, who have a canny sense of price and demand and store quality, whereas yours truly becomes overwhelmed by a numbing dread upon entering most retail establishments of the non-Home Depot or non-electronics persuasion) all tend to shake their heads in agreement when David speaks to the ups and downs of specific store chains and trends. I can think of no higher recommendation, for these are for the most part the front line consumers and they take their duties seriously.

Last night in speaking with a youngish acquaintance just completing law school (another one, alas) who was looking for advice on long term investments we observed that now is the time to remain liquid because ‘the worst is yet to come.’

In 1999 I began an intense study of market bubbles and crashes as mentioned before. This included buying contemporary magazines and newspapers and reading them to see what was going through people’s minds.

Today reminds me of the briefly sunny period in 1930-1 when most economists and public officials agreed that the Depression was already over and the economy was back on track. President Hoover dismissed a delegation of businessmen who came to Washington with ideas on stabilizing the economy with "Too late gentlemen, the slump is over."

There are few things from my childhood that I remember more vividly than grandmother’s comments regarding this false recovery. "If we knew what was coming, we would have killed ourselves." This from as strong a person as I have ever encountered, with a faith that would break rocks. The Great Depression left an indelible mark, or more accurately scar, on her entire family, and my father’s as well.

And I never heard the name "Franklin Roosevelt" from her lips without it being preceded by "God bless" followed by "he saved my family." Not all of her children unfortunately. She said she cried so much and so often that she was never able to cry again. And she did not, even at the end.

Of course it was the second half of the great stock decline after the 1929


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Kimble Charting Solutions

A Repeat Of The 2000 Dot.com Highs In Play?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Since the 2000 tech bubble and crash, tech stocks have regained their leadership form. Especially large-cap tech stocks.

Headlines have varied in focus from the “4 horseman” to “FANG” and “FANGE”, but one thing remains: Large-cap tech stocks have been the bull market leader.

So what about when large-cap tech lags the market? Not so good.

In today’s chart, we look at a “monthly” chart of the performance ratio of the Nasdaq 100 Index to the Nasdaq Composite. It’s basically a look at how large-cap tech stocks perform against the broader tech stocks world.

As you ca...



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Zero Hedge

Barrage Of New Countries And Airlines To Adopt Vaccine Passports

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Several more countries have indicated that they are to adopt vaccination passports, meaning anyone crossing their borders will need to be able to prove they have been inoculated against coronavirus.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Animal Spirits: Micro Bubbles

 

Animal Spirits: Micro Bubbles

Courtesy of 

On today’s show we discuss:

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ValueWalk

The Fears Of Tech Stocks Underperformace Were Overblown

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Commenting on overblown fears about the underperformace of tech stocks  and today’s trading Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Fears Of Tech Stocks Underperformace Under President Biden Were Overblown

Today’s two-faced session hasn’t solved all of bulls’ problems, but the rally tech rally is great news from a long-term perspective. Today’s session might have proved that the fears that tech stocks could underperform under President Biden were overblown, and while cyclicals remained relatively weak, the Nasdaq’s strength could further solidify the bu...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 05:26:16 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This is lack of liquidity means support is likely to break if it is tested hard!



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 09:51:58 PM

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Comment: Nasdaq losing momentum.



Da...

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Politics

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

 

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

Rioters mass on the U.S. Capitol steps on Jan. 6. Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeff Inglis, The Conversation

In the wake of the insurrection on Jan. 6, the U.S. is bracing for the possibility of additional violent demonstrations and potential riots at the U.S. Capitol and state capitol buildings around the nation. W...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

 

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

By mid-January, only about a quarter of the COVID-19 vaccines distributed for U.S. nursing homes through the federal program had reached people’s arms. Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

Courtesy of Tinglong Dai, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing

The urgency of vaccinating nursing home residents is evident in the numbers. The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed the lives of mo...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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