Posts Tagged ‘Human recession’

Roubini, Summers and Obama: Duh

Roubini, Summers and Obama: Duh

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker

St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Day 2

Out of Davos come two opinions that Bloomberg (and others) have spun as arguing for "continuing stimulus efforts":

“The headline number will look large and big, but actually when you dissect it, it’s very dismal and poor,” Roubini said in a Jan. 30 Bloomberg Television interview following a U.S. Commerce Department report that showed economic expansion of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter. “I think we are in trouble.”

Roubini said more than half of the growth was related to a replenishing of depleted inventories and that consumption was reliant on monetary and fiscal stimulus. As these forces ebb, the rate will slow to 1.5 percent in the second half of 2010.

No really?  We’ve embedded $500 billion in annual transfer payments of various forms over the last 18 months.  That’s about 3% of GDP, or more than the "advance" GDP number says that personal consumption expanded (2.2%)

In other words, but for the additions to transfer payments over what was present before we went into this mess consumption would be printing a solid negative number – still.

Summers said that the "statistical recovery" won’t mask "a human recession."

Human recession Larry?  Is that like the "mental recession" that John McCain’s favored economic wonk proclaimed during the campaign?

Never mind our "good friend" President Obama, who is proposing a $3.8 trillion budget today.  In a break with the usual "optimistic" view compared to the CBO, he’s predicting that the deficit this year will total $1.8 trillion, or almost 50% of the total federal spending – and that’s with more than $800 billion in higher taxes (which have a near-zero chance of actually passing Congress in an election year!)

The President claims to be enacting a "spending freeze" and claims that it is "everything but security and defense."  In typical Washington form this is a lie – education and R&D (everywhere) are getting a 6% increase.  This, while inflation is currently running at a statistical zero, and on the back of the last year’s budget which amounted to a "ratchet up" game played with the voters.

This is the same game, by the way, that was played with the states and their so-called "Federal Help"…
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Zero Hedge

As VIX Tops 14, Stock Investors Exclaim "Where Are The Dip Buyers?"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Something's different today...

Instead of the ubiquitous panic-bid open (after overnight weakness)...

...that is not happening today...

And VIX is running notably back above 14.00...

As a reminder, should the Dow closed r...



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Phil's Favorites

Breaking up families? America looks like a Dickens novel

 

Breaking up families? America looks like a Dickens novel

Almost 1,500 immigrant boys, aged 10 to 17, were separated from their parents and brought to stay at Casa Padre in Brownsville, Texas. Department of Health and Human Services

Courtesy of Sarah Bilston, Trinity College

The news has been full these past few weeks of disturbing stories from the nation’s borders. The T...



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Insider Scoop

Benzinga Pro's 5 Stocks To Watch Today

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Each day, the Benzinga Pro news team highlights several stocks with Trading Idea potential. Be the first to see them by becoming a Benzinga Pro user!

Casi Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: CASI) stock was trading higher by more than 40 percent early Thursday morning. The biopharmaceutical said it secured a strategic and long-term manufacturing agreement with China's Yiling Wanzhou for manufacturing of entecavir and cilostazo, ...



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Chart School

Small Caps Add To Gains

Courtesy of Declan.

Good news for momentum traders as the Russell 2000 continued its good run. The Russell 200 will start to get hot when it gets into the 15% profit take zone at 1,732 - a zone last seen tested in December 2016; if we are looking at February 2011 levels (the 5% historic zone) then the Russell 2000 would be tagging 1,813. Start taking profits, or sell covered calls, when we get into these levels.


The S&P reversed off resistance in early June and hasn't yet mounted a challenge to break it - today's gain off its 20-day M...

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Digital Currencies

BIS Blasts Cryptos In Special Report: "Beyond The Hype"

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

The BIS blasts cryptos over scaling issues, energy, and trust. The BIS is correct. Cryptos are fatally flawed as money.

A Bank of International Settlements (BIS) report examines cryptocurrencies in depth. The study, called "Looking Beyond the Hype" investigates whether cryptocurrencies could play any role as money.

Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Bitcoin Exchange guide all have articles on the report but not one of the bothered to link to it.

After a bit of digging, I found the crypto report is part of an upcoming BIS annual report. The BIS pre-released the crypto report today (as chapter 5).

Here's a l...



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Biotech

Mind molding psychedelic drugs could treat depression, and other mental illnesses

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Mind molding psychedelic drugs could treat depression, and other mental illnesses

By agsandrew/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of David E. Olson, University of California, Davis

It seems that psychedelics do more than simply alter perception. According to the latest research from my colleagues and me, they change the structures of neurons th...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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