Posts Tagged ‘initial claims’

JOBLESS CLAIMS SURGE, SEARS DISAPPOINTS

JOBLESS CLAIMS SURGE, SEARS DISAPPOINTS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

The market continues to fly higher in the face of bad news.  This morning’s jobless claims surged unexpectedly higher to 576K – a truly remarkable figure this far into a “recovery”.  Econoday reports:

Jobless claims data are a disappointment, showing increases in both initial claims and continuing claims. Initial claims for the Aug. 15 week rose 15,000 to 576,000 with the Aug. 8 week revised 3,000 higher. The result is well above expectations for 550,000. Continuing claims for the Aug. 8 week rose 2,000 to 6.241 million for a second increase in three weeks. There are no special factors skewing the data. The four-week average for initial claims rose for a third straight week and is now trailing the latest week at 570,000. The four-week average for continuing claims offers some good news, at 6.266 million for a 3,000 improvement in the week and well down from 6.548 million a month ago. The unemployment rate for insured workers, unchanged at 4.7 percent, also offers some good news. But the headline rise in initial claims is a disappointment pointing to no improvement for August payroll data. Stocks and commodities dipped in immediate reaction to the news.

In other news, Sears reported an absolutely horrible quarter.  Shares are down 13% on the news.  Despite $1B in cost cutting, the company still missed estimates.  Revenues were down 10% year over year while same store sales at KMart and Sears both fell double digits.  The consumer continues to struggle.

Naturally, the S&P 500 is tacking on 0.5% this morning….

 


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Initial Claims No Longer Falling

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data  

Bloomberg details:

More Americans unexpectedly filed claims for jobless benefits last week, indicating companies are trying to cut costs further even as the economy stabilizes.

Applications rose to 576,000 in the week ended Aug. 15 from a revised 561,000 the week before, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The number of people collecting unemployment benefits the week earlier was little changed at 6.24 million.

Companies may keep paring staff in coming months, albeit at a slower pace, and hiring linked to the government’s recovery effort may not gain speed until 2010. While the unemployment rate dipped last month, economists project it will reach 10 percent by early next year, restraining consumer spending.

“We still have a long way to go,” James O’Sullivan, a senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said before the report. “We need the labor market to pick up for consumer spending to continue to improve.”

 
The fact that this figure is not falling is worrisome. My guess (not verified) is that most companies have already laid off the "low hanging fruit", thus this likely reflects laying off individuals that companies were attempting to hang on to (OR businesses failing altogether).
 
Source: DOL

 


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Leading Indicators Point to Economic Rebound

Leading Indicators Point to Economic Rebound

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data  

Marketwatch reports:

An economic recovery may begin soon, and the recession is bottoming out, the Conference Board said Thursday. For its fourth consecutive monthly gain, the index of leading economic indicators rose in 0.6% in July, following an upwardly revised increase of 0.8% in June. Economists polled by MarketWatch were looking for a gain of 0.7% in July.

The interest rate spread was the largest positive contributor, while a reading on consumer expectations was the largest negative contributor. Overall, six of the 10 indicators were positive contributors, three were negative, and one was steady. The six-month growth rate for the overall index hit its highest level since mid-2004, according to the Conference Board.

economic indicators

Source: Conference Board

 


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Continuing Claims Drop First Time In 21 Weeks.

But don’t get too excited, read on…

Continuing Claims Drop First Time In 21 Weeks. Is This Worth Getting Excited Over?

Courtesy of Mish 

Unless this is another headfake, the string of 21 consecutive weeks of higher continuing claims ended today. Interestingly, the 4-week moving average of continuing claims actually rose.

Previously I reported the streak ended at 17 unless the numbers were revised, but revised they were.

With that backdrop, please consider the Department of Labor Weekly Claims Report.

Seasonally Adjusted Data

In the week ending June 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 608,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 605,000. The 4-week moving average was 615,750, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 622,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 5.0 percent for the week ending June 6, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 5.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 6 was 6,687,000, a decrease of 148,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 6,835,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,757,500, an increase of 2,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 6,755,250.

Weekly Claims

click on chart for sharper image

For six weeks I have been saying the dip in initial claims from the March peak of roughly 650,000 is not accelerating very fast, if indeed at all.

In three months the 4-week moving average of initial claims has gained roughly 35,000 jobs. For the sake of argument let’s call it 15,000 jobs per month. At that rate it will take another 4 months just to get to where we were a year ago and those were God awful numbers at 381,500 claims a week.

Of course things might speed up significantly, then again I was reasonably generous with the initial rate of improvement.

The Reality

Yahoo Finance is reporting Jobless benefit rolls post first dip since January.

The number of people receiving unemployment aid fell by 148,000 to 6.69 million in the week that ended June 6 — the largest drop in more than seven years. The decline broke a string of 21 straight increases in the number of people claiming benefits for more than a


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Phil's Favorites

The Fed's Repo Bailout and JPMorgan's 38 Trading Floors

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Trading Floor at JPMorgan Chase in Manhattan (Source: 60 Minutes, November 10, 2019)

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: November 11, 2019 ~

Jamie Dimon Sits in Front of Trading Monitor in his Office (Source: 60 Minutes Interview, November 10, 2019)

Since September 17 of this year, the central bank of the United States, ...



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Zero Hedge

China's Credit Creation Unexpectedly Collapses At The Worst Possible Time

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Over the weekend, we observed that China's slumping wholesale inflation, or PPI, which is so critical for corporate profits and sparking benign, demand-driven inflation in the economy, and which in October tumbled to a three year low assuring that Chinese dumping and exports of deflation will only further depress global reflation efforts...

...



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Insider Scoop

6 Stocks To Watch For November 11, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects Qurate Retail, Inc. (NASDAQ: QRTEA) to report quarterly earnings at $0.30 per share on revenue of $3.13 billion before the opening bell. Qurate Retail shares fell 0.2% to $9.38 in after-hours trading.
  • Pingtan Marine Enterprise Ltd (NASDAQ: PME) ...


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The Technical Traders

Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Investing - Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

This current market environment is very reminiscent of the 2006-08 market environment where price rotated into weakness on technicals and continued to establish new all-time price highs in the process – creating what we are calling a “zombie-land melt-up”.  This very dangerous price action is indicative of money chasing a falling trend.  Where technicals and fundamentals are suggesting that price is actually weakening quite substantial, yet the process of price exploration is continually biased towards the upside as investors continue to pile onto the back of the beast expecting a further melt-up.

Let’s take a look at what happened to the ES and Gold in 2006 an...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Indicator Sending Fresh Bearish Message, Says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could the Gold/US Dollar ratio be sending a fresh concerning message to Gold bulls this week? Joe Friday says Yes!

This chart looks at the Gold/Dollar ratio over the past 8-years.

The intersection of two long-term channel met at (1) a few months ago. The ratio was testing the bottom of one as resistance and the top of another as resistance at the same time.

As the ratio was testing both channels as resistance, a sizeable bearish reversal pattern took place at (1).

Since the reversal pattern took place, the ratio has been heading lower.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; The ratio is breaking below...



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Digital Currencies

3 Reasons Why One Trader Didn't "Manipulate" Bitcoin Price To $20K

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin price highs in 2017 were not the result of a single trader on an exchange, the CEO of payment company Circle claims. In a series of tweets on Nov. 4, Jeremy Allaire disputed ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann and Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold has performed well, golden skies are here again. In fact it has been a straight line move, and this is typically unusual and a pause can be expected.

It seems the markets are happy again, new highs in the SP500, US 10 year interest rates look to re bound, negative interest may soften. The US FED has reversed their QT and now doing $250BN (not QE) repo. The main point is the FED has stopped QT, and will do QE forever. The evidence now is the FED put is under market risk and the possibility of excessive losses do not exist. 

Point: If in future if there is market risk, the FED will print it's way out of it.
Subject To: In this blog view. The above is so until the amount required rocks confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency.&n...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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