Posts Tagged ‘initial claims’

JOBLESS CLAIMS SURGE, SEARS DISAPPOINTS

JOBLESS CLAIMS SURGE, SEARS DISAPPOINTS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

The market continues to fly higher in the face of bad news.  This morning’s jobless claims surged unexpectedly higher to 576K – a truly remarkable figure this far into a “recovery”.  Econoday reports:

Jobless claims data are a disappointment, showing increases in both initial claims and continuing claims. Initial claims for the Aug. 15 week rose 15,000 to 576,000 with the Aug. 8 week revised 3,000 higher. The result is well above expectations for 550,000. Continuing claims for the Aug. 8 week rose 2,000 to 6.241 million for a second increase in three weeks. There are no special factors skewing the data. The four-week average for initial claims rose for a third straight week and is now trailing the latest week at 570,000. The four-week average for continuing claims offers some good news, at 6.266 million for a 3,000 improvement in the week and well down from 6.548 million a month ago. The unemployment rate for insured workers, unchanged at 4.7 percent, also offers some good news. But the headline rise in initial claims is a disappointment pointing to no improvement for August payroll data. Stocks and commodities dipped in immediate reaction to the news.

In other news, Sears reported an absolutely horrible quarter.  Shares are down 13% on the news.  Despite $1B in cost cutting, the company still missed estimates.  Revenues were down 10% year over year while same store sales at KMart and Sears both fell double digits.  The consumer continues to struggle.

Naturally, the S&P 500 is tacking on 0.5% this morning….

 


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Initial Claims No Longer Falling

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data  

Bloomberg details:

More Americans unexpectedly filed claims for jobless benefits last week, indicating companies are trying to cut costs further even as the economy stabilizes.

Applications rose to 576,000 in the week ended Aug. 15 from a revised 561,000 the week before, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The number of people collecting unemployment benefits the week earlier was little changed at 6.24 million.

Companies may keep paring staff in coming months, albeit at a slower pace, and hiring linked to the government’s recovery effort may not gain speed until 2010. While the unemployment rate dipped last month, economists project it will reach 10 percent by early next year, restraining consumer spending.

“We still have a long way to go,” James O’Sullivan, a senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said before the report. “We need the labor market to pick up for consumer spending to continue to improve.”

 
The fact that this figure is not falling is worrisome. My guess (not verified) is that most companies have already laid off the "low hanging fruit", thus this likely reflects laying off individuals that companies were attempting to hang on to (OR businesses failing altogether).
 
Source: DOL

 


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Leading Indicators Point to Economic Rebound

Leading Indicators Point to Economic Rebound

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data  

Marketwatch reports:

An economic recovery may begin soon, and the recession is bottoming out, the Conference Board said Thursday. For its fourth consecutive monthly gain, the index of leading economic indicators rose in 0.6% in July, following an upwardly revised increase of 0.8% in June. Economists polled by MarketWatch were looking for a gain of 0.7% in July.

The interest rate spread was the largest positive contributor, while a reading on consumer expectations was the largest negative contributor. Overall, six of the 10 indicators were positive contributors, three were negative, and one was steady. The six-month growth rate for the overall index hit its highest level since mid-2004, according to the Conference Board.

economic indicators

Source: Conference Board

 


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Continuing Claims Drop First Time In 21 Weeks.

But don’t get too excited, read on…

Continuing Claims Drop First Time In 21 Weeks. Is This Worth Getting Excited Over?

Courtesy of Mish 

Unless this is another headfake, the string of 21 consecutive weeks of higher continuing claims ended today. Interestingly, the 4-week moving average of continuing claims actually rose.

Previously I reported the streak ended at 17 unless the numbers were revised, but revised they were.

With that backdrop, please consider the Department of Labor Weekly Claims Report.

Seasonally Adjusted Data

In the week ending June 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 608,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 605,000. The 4-week moving average was 615,750, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 622,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 5.0 percent for the week ending June 6, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 5.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 6 was 6,687,000, a decrease of 148,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 6,835,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,757,500, an increase of 2,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 6,755,250.

Weekly Claims

click on chart for sharper image

For six weeks I have been saying the dip in initial claims from the March peak of roughly 650,000 is not accelerating very fast, if indeed at all.

In three months the 4-week moving average of initial claims has gained roughly 35,000 jobs. For the sake of argument let’s call it 15,000 jobs per month. At that rate it will take another 4 months just to get to where we were a year ago and those were God awful numbers at 381,500 claims a week.

Of course things might speed up significantly, then again I was reasonably generous with the initial rate of improvement.

The Reality

Yahoo Finance is reporting Jobless benefit rolls post first dip since January.

The number of people receiving unemployment aid fell by 148,000 to 6.69 million in the week that ended June 6 — the largest drop in more than seven years. The decline broke a string of 21 straight increases in the number of people claiming benefits for more than a


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Zero Hedge

The Fed And The Treasury Have Now Merged

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Submitted by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research

As I've argued, the Fed and the Treasury merged. Powell said this was the case today (from his Q&A):

These programs we are using, under the laws, we do these, as I mentioned in my remarks, with the consent of the Treasury Secretary and the fiscal backing from the congress through the Treasury. And we are doing it to provide credit to households, businesses, state and local governments. As we are directed by the Congress. We are using that fiscal backstop to absorb any losses we have.

Our ability is limited by the law. We have to find u...



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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar - 04-08-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:01:34 - Checking on the Markets
00:04:32 - Current News
00:31:34 - LEVI
00:35:08 - AMZN
00:39:26 - Mark Mahaney's Stock Coverage
00:43:00 - Public Transportation & Disinfecting
00:48:08 - Petroleum Status Report & OPEC
01:00:24 - COVID-19 Update | WYNN
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Biotech/COVID-19

COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

 

COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

Nurse Shelia Rickman participates in an after-shift demonstration on Monday, April 6, 2020, in Chicago’s Hyde Park neighborhood, after media reports of disproportionate numbers of black people dying from COVID-19 in the city. AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

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The best case situation for Coronavirus or COVID-19 is that in a few weeks it dies down and things get back to normal. However, we must entertain the possibility of a far more frightening scenario.

COVID-19 models continue to change for the better

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Although researchers say the peak hasn’t been reached yet, the model in use by the White House and many other agencies was updated on Wednesday. The number of projected deaths from the virus in the U.S. declined to 60,415 by August, compared...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver/Gold Indicator Creates Largest Bullish Pattern In Decades!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is an important metals indicator sending one of the largest bullish messages in nearly 50-years? Very Possible!

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The ratio hit the top of the falling channel (A) back in 2011, where it created a large bearish reversal pattern. Since creating the bearish pattern at resistance, the ratio has experienced a significant decline.

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Adaptive Fibonacci Suggests Much Lower Prices Yet To Come - Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system suggests a much deeper price move is in the works and the current price rally will likely end near resistance levels identified by the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We are posting this research post for friends and followers to help them understand the true structure of price and to allow them to prepare for what we believe will become a much deeper downside price move in the future.

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The Big Short movie guides us to what is next for the stock market

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There is nothing new in WallStreet, it is only the players that change. Sometimes a market player or an event gets ahead of the crowd and WallStreet has to play catch up.

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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
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10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

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When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

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While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

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Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

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Lee,

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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