Posts Tagged ‘initial claims’

JOBLESS CLAIMS SURGE, SEARS DISAPPOINTS

JOBLESS CLAIMS SURGE, SEARS DISAPPOINTS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

The market continues to fly higher in the face of bad news.  This morning’s jobless claims surged unexpectedly higher to 576K – a truly remarkable figure this far into a “recovery”.  Econoday reports:

Jobless claims data are a disappointment, showing increases in both initial claims and continuing claims. Initial claims for the Aug. 15 week rose 15,000 to 576,000 with the Aug. 8 week revised 3,000 higher. The result is well above expectations for 550,000. Continuing claims for the Aug. 8 week rose 2,000 to 6.241 million for a second increase in three weeks. There are no special factors skewing the data. The four-week average for initial claims rose for a third straight week and is now trailing the latest week at 570,000. The four-week average for continuing claims offers some good news, at 6.266 million for a 3,000 improvement in the week and well down from 6.548 million a month ago. The unemployment rate for insured workers, unchanged at 4.7 percent, also offers some good news. But the headline rise in initial claims is a disappointment pointing to no improvement for August payroll data. Stocks and commodities dipped in immediate reaction to the news.

In other news, Sears reported an absolutely horrible quarter.  Shares are down 13% on the news.  Despite $1B in cost cutting, the company still missed estimates.  Revenues were down 10% year over year while same store sales at KMart and Sears both fell double digits.  The consumer continues to struggle.

Naturally, the S&P 500 is tacking on 0.5% this morning….

 


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Initial Claims No Longer Falling

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data  

Bloomberg details:

More Americans unexpectedly filed claims for jobless benefits last week, indicating companies are trying to cut costs further even as the economy stabilizes.

Applications rose to 576,000 in the week ended Aug. 15 from a revised 561,000 the week before, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The number of people collecting unemployment benefits the week earlier was little changed at 6.24 million.

Companies may keep paring staff in coming months, albeit at a slower pace, and hiring linked to the government’s recovery effort may not gain speed until 2010. While the unemployment rate dipped last month, economists project it will reach 10 percent by early next year, restraining consumer spending.

“We still have a long way to go,” James O’Sullivan, a senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said before the report. “We need the labor market to pick up for consumer spending to continue to improve.”

 
The fact that this figure is not falling is worrisome. My guess (not verified) is that most companies have already laid off the "low hanging fruit", thus this likely reflects laying off individuals that companies were attempting to hang on to (OR businesses failing altogether).
 
Source: DOL

 


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Leading Indicators Point to Economic Rebound

Leading Indicators Point to Economic Rebound

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data  

Marketwatch reports:

An economic recovery may begin soon, and the recession is bottoming out, the Conference Board said Thursday. For its fourth consecutive monthly gain, the index of leading economic indicators rose in 0.6% in July, following an upwardly revised increase of 0.8% in June. Economists polled by MarketWatch were looking for a gain of 0.7% in July.

The interest rate spread was the largest positive contributor, while a reading on consumer expectations was the largest negative contributor. Overall, six of the 10 indicators were positive contributors, three were negative, and one was steady. The six-month growth rate for the overall index hit its highest level since mid-2004, according to the Conference Board.

economic indicators

Source: Conference Board

 


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Continuing Claims Drop First Time In 21 Weeks.

But don’t get too excited, read on…

Continuing Claims Drop First Time In 21 Weeks. Is This Worth Getting Excited Over?

Courtesy of Mish 

Unless this is another headfake, the string of 21 consecutive weeks of higher continuing claims ended today. Interestingly, the 4-week moving average of continuing claims actually rose.

Previously I reported the streak ended at 17 unless the numbers were revised, but revised they were.

With that backdrop, please consider the Department of Labor Weekly Claims Report.

Seasonally Adjusted Data

In the week ending June 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 608,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 605,000. The 4-week moving average was 615,750, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 622,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 5.0 percent for the week ending June 6, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 5.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 6 was 6,687,000, a decrease of 148,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 6,835,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,757,500, an increase of 2,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 6,755,250.

Weekly Claims

click on chart for sharper image

For six weeks I have been saying the dip in initial claims from the March peak of roughly 650,000 is not accelerating very fast, if indeed at all.

In three months the 4-week moving average of initial claims has gained roughly 35,000 jobs. For the sake of argument let’s call it 15,000 jobs per month. At that rate it will take another 4 months just to get to where we were a year ago and those were God awful numbers at 381,500 claims a week.

Of course things might speed up significantly, then again I was reasonably generous with the initial rate of improvement.

The Reality

Yahoo Finance is reporting Jobless benefit rolls post first dip since January.

The number of people receiving unemployment aid fell by 148,000 to 6.69 million in the week that ended June 6 — the largest drop in more than seven years. The decline broke a string of 21 straight increases in the number of people claiming benefits for more than a


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Phil's Favorites

As schools prepare to reopen during COVID-19, are the kids alright?

 

As schools prepare to reopen during COVID-19, are the kids alright?

A seven-year-old boy waits at the bus stop in Dallas, Ga., for the first day of school on Aug. 3, 2020. Canadian schools are reopening in September, but is anyone really thinking about the well-being of the children? (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

Courtesy of Sydney Chapados, Carleton University

As September approaches and schools prepare to reopen, there are concerns for children, including the risk they might spread COVID-19, ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

As schools prepare to reopen during COVID-19, are the kids alright?

 

As schools prepare to reopen during COVID-19, are the kids alright?

A seven-year-old boy waits at the bus stop in Dallas, Ga., for the first day of school on Aug. 3, 2020. Canadian schools are reopening in September, but is anyone really thinking about the well-being of the children? (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

Courtesy of Sydney Chapados, Carleton University

As September approaches and schools prepare to reopen, there are concerns for children, including the risk they might spread COVID-19, ...



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Zero Hedge

Hotel Bailouts At Taxpayer Expense Coming Right Up

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Commercial Real Estate delinquencies have soared led by lodging.

Trepp research shows CMBS Delinquency Rate Surges for the Third Month; Nears  All-Time High.

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ValueWalk

Emerging Market Airports - Broyhill Asset Management

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Broyhill Asset Management investment thesis on Mexico’s airports.

The economic impacts of COVID-19 have been felt far and wide. The pandemic has indiscriminately affected both developing and emerging economies. The virus has shuttered some businesses but has also created some interesting opportunities for the long-term, value-oriented investor.

Emerging market air travel has been hard hit by the global pandemic. But air travel is key to economic development.  Airports are recognized as critical infrastructure, supporting employment and fostering growth in tourism, trade, and business.

Broyhill Asset Management’s investment thesis below, highlights how private airports carry lower risk than airlines, generate highe...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

History Says Gold Correction Could Lead to Big Rally!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Over a decade ago, Gold rallied past its 1980 highs and over $1000/oz at (1) on today’s chart.

That rise to new highs was met with a 30 percent correction at (2), followed by a blast off rally to new highs.

Is gold setting up for a repeat of its past?

Gold recently rallied past its 2011 highs and above $2000/oz. Could Gold soon turn lower for a sharp correction before another blast off toward $3000?

If so, Gold bulls should look for a pullback, before blasting higher. Stay tuned!

This article was first written fo...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Chart School

Silver Big Channel

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Big channels are the sand pit of price action. Lets review some big trends of these past months.


GLD
- Moving higher to upper solid red line channel


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XAU
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.



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SILVER
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.


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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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