Posts Tagged ‘investment outlook’

MERRILL LYNCH’S BULLISH 2010 OUTLOOK – A BUBBLE IN PESSIMISM

This "pessimism bubble" idea seems a bit Orwellian, but part of its beauty is that it’s invisible from the inside. – Ilene

MERRILL LYNCH’S BULLISH 2010 OUTLOOK – A BUBBLE IN PESSIMISM

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Floating spheres

We are just about finished wrapping up our series on 2010 outlooks.  In this article we’ll outline Bank of America Merrill Lynch.   Bank of America Merrill Lynch is very bullish heading into 2010 (an outlook similar to RBC).  They see many of the trends of 2009 continuing into 2010 and driving equity markets around the world higher by double digits (see JP Morgan’s bullish emerging market outlook here).  Ethan Harris, head of North American economics summarized the Merrill outlook:

“We believe the global economy will gather momentum in 2010.  We think that the unprecedented mix of near-zero interest rates and high budget deficits will engineer an economic recovery that is real and sustainable. We aren’t forecasting a swift return to robust growth. In fact, the recovery will likely lag behind those of previous recessions – but we believe that the world economy will perform far better than the economic consensus would indicate.”

This macro outlook is underpinned by a number of variables:

  • Global growth will be 4.4%, Chinese growth will be 10.1% and U.S. growth will be 3.2% – all above 2010 consensus estimates.
  • Inflation will remain benign.
  • U.S. stocks will rise 15% led by strong growth in global cyclical sectors – tech, energy, industrials and materials.  Financials are also expected to perform well as the yield curve remains conducive to strong earnings.
  • The MSCI All-Country World Index will rise 20 percent.
  • Gold and oil will both continue to rally as strong demand from foreign investors remains the primary driver.  Gold will breach $1,500 and oil will surpass $100.
  • Government bonds will perform poorly.
  • The Dollar & Yen will rally against the Euro.
Income Tax: John Bull

Merrill also notes 10 key investment themes for 2010.  From PR Newswire:

10 Investment Themes for 2010

  • Government Balance Sheet Risk: The soaring U.S. budget deficit and a Chinese currency revaluation will drive 10-year U.S. Treasury yields above 4 percent by year-end 2010. Shorter-duration Treasuries and U.S. investment-grade corporate credit are less susceptible to such risks.
  • Rising Taxation: The


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Zero Hedge

Silver Just Had Its Best Month In 40 Years: Here Are July's Best And Worst Performing Assets

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

When looking at the torrid market performance in July, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid notes that silver (+35%) had its best month since December 1979 while the dollar the worst for a decade. US equities had a good month in spite of rising virus caseloads due to a strong earnings season relative to expectations, especially in tech towards the end of the month. YTD Silver, Gold and the NASDAQ have been the three best performers while at the bottom of the leaderboard Brent, WTI and European Banks are all down at least 30%.

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ValueWalk

Coronavirus stimulus check: Tell IRS if you didn't get the payment yet

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

We are now in the final week when a decision on the next coronavirus stimulus package is expected. However, many still haven’t received their first stimulus check. The IRS has said that it would continue to send payments through the end of the year. Yet, if you meet the eligibility requirements and haven’t gotten the coronavirus stimulus check, you should let the IRS know.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

When to contact IRS for coronavirus stimulus check

The IRS has already send the majority of the payments. Though the agency would be sending ...



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Phil's Favorites

The Fed Has Secreted Away the Transactions of Three of Its Emergency Lending Programs

Courtesy of Pam Martens

(Left to right, top) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell; Randal Quarles, Vice Chair for Supervision; Richard Clarida, Vice Chair; (left to right, bottom) Lael Brainard, Michelle Bowman.

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Randal Quarles, the Vice Chairman for Supervision at the Fed, have stated in testimony before Congress that they would be providing transaction level details of their Section 13(3) Emergency Lending Facilities on a regular, ongoing basis. But the three ol...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Here's How To Buy The Top Stocks In The Hottest Sectors During The Covid Crisis

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tech has been the place to be during the Covid-19 crisis. Investors Business Daily recently highlighted how one can own the strongest of the strong by just owning one ETF (See article here).

This chart looks at the Dorsey Wright Focus Five index ETF (FV), which reflects that it is attempting a bullish breakout while creating higher lows over the past 6-years.

The $2.1 billion fund tracks the Dorsey Wright Focus Five Index, which provides access to five First Trust sector and industry ETFs. Dorsey Wright & Associates selects the funds based on relative price momentum, then weights the compone...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Video: Who controls pandemic data?

 

Video: Who controls pandemic data?

Public data is vital to the functioning of a democracy. Witthaya Prasongsin / Getty Images

Courtesy of Julia Lane, New York University

Editor’s note: When the Trump administration ordered hospitals to report COVID-19 data to the Department of Health and Human Services rather than the Centers for Disease Control and Pre...



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Digital Currencies

Twitter Says "Human Error" And "Spear-Phishing Attack" Responsible For Massive Bitcoin Hack

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Twitter suffered from a major hack about two weeks ago and has now said that its staff was tricked by "spear-phishing", which is a targeted attack to trick people into simply handing out their passwords. 

Twitter staff were targeted through their phones, according to a new report from the BBC. The attacks then allowed hackers the ability to Tweet from celebrity Twitter accounts. Twitter has said it was "taking a hard look" at how it could improve its permissions and processes.

"The attack on July 15, 2020, targeted a small number of employees through a phone spear phishing attack. This attack relied on ...



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The Technical Traders

ARE THE MARKETS ABOUT TO TURN?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Deborah Honig from Adelaide Capital asks Chris the question on everyone’s mind – where are the markets heading? Where is the ‘big money’, the early movers in the market, going? Chris and Deborah also look at the technicals for Gold and Silver and discuss whether Gold and Silver are starting a big run-up now, or should we wait before taking positions?

Learn more about our latest research and alerts on Gold, Silver, Oil, and Equities at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Chart School

US Dollar Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

If investors can correctly forecast the US Dollar then their portfolio will be standing on better ground.

Jesse Livermore said investors must familiarise themselves with all matters of the market. The sine wave cycle below shows regular tops and bottoms and if the investor ignores this repeating phenomena it could be at their peril. If you decide to do so, you best have a good technical or fundamental reason.

The sine wave cycle below was found with readtheticker.com 'Cycle Finder Spectrum' use of 'Bartels' logic. Yes it is mathematics, but within the site RTT Plus service we also examine the dollar fundamentals  (like: inflation, money s...

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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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