Posts Tagged ‘IRM’

Heavy Volume In Intel Options As Shares Rally To Highest Since August

Heavy volume in Intel options as shares rally to highest since August

Today’s tickers: INTC, LRCX & IRM

INTC - Intel Corp. – Shares in Intel Corp. are bucking the trend on Monday, up better than 4.0% at $25.27 as of midday in New York amid a weak start to the trading week for U.S. equities. The chipmaker was raised to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ with a target share price of $28.00 from $23.00 at FBR Capital today. Bullish trades initiated on Intel on Friday are generating gains for some strategists today, with premium on weekly calls up sharply with the move in the price of the underlying stock. It looks like more than 7,000 of the Jun 07 ’13 $25 strike calls were purchased on Friday for an average premium of $0.11 each. Today, these contracts are changing hands for $0.41 each, a near four-fold increase over the weekend. Traders positioning for the stock to extend gains this week snapped up around 1,000 calls at the Jun 07 ’13 $26 strike for an average premium of $0.06 apiece. The bullish bet makes money at expiration as long as shares in INTC rally another 3.1% to exceed the average breakeven price of $26.06. Shares in Intel are up roughly 20% since the start of 2013.

LRCX - Lam Research Corp. – Bullish options are changing hands on Lam Research Corp. today, with shares in the name trading up as much as 5.0% to a new two-year high of $49.13 after analysts at Needham reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock and raised their price target to $60.00 from $53.00. Traders placing bullish bets on LRCX looked to the front month calls, buying roughly 1,000 of


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Contrarians Scoop up Carnival Corp. Call Options

Today’s tickers: CCL, XLF, IRM & WAC

CCL - Carnival Corp. – Shares in the cruise company sank 8.3% this afternoon to touch an intraday low of $41.90, but it looks like some options traders expect Carnival Corp. to encounter fairer seas ahead of July expiration. More than 3,400 calls changed hands at the July $47 strike in the first half of the trading session, which is more than twice the number of contracts of open interest at that strike. It looks like the majority of the contracts, or some 2,600 of the calls, were purchased for an average premium of $1.89 apiece. Contrarians positioning for a rebound are prepared to make money should shares in CCL surge 15.0% off today’s low of $42.50 to surpass the average breakeven price of $48.89 ahead of July expiration. Carnival last traded up at a 52-week high of $48.14 back on January 6, 2011. The firm is one month away from reporting earnings for the first quarter before the market opens for trading on March 22, 2011. The sharp decline in shares today and the rise in demand for calls on the stock helped lift the overall reading of options implied volatility on Carnival 23.1% to 31.32% by 1:30pm in New York trading.

XLF - Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF – Three large blocks of XLF put options changed hands within the first 20 minutes of the trading session, and appear to be the foundation for a sizable bearish put butterfly spread. Shares in the XLF, an exchange-traded fund designed to track the performance of the Financial Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index, declined as much as 2.9% during the session thus far to touch an intraday low of $16.68. The put ‘fly yields maximum benefit for one investor if shares in the…
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Bulls Find Lululemon Call Options Irresistible as Shares Soar

Today’s tickers: LULU, IRM, GAP, SNDK, STI & DFS

LULU - Lululemon Athletica, Inc. – Shares of the yoga clothing and accessories maker stretched and lengthened up to new all-time highs yet again today, attracting bullish options players more than willing to flex their call-buying muscles in the December and January 2011 contracts. LULU’s shares jumped more than 8.95% to secure an intraday- and new all-time high of $69.25 in the final thirty minutes of the trading week. The Canadian company’s shares have been unstoppable, rallying an incredible 167.5% to today’s high from a 52-week low of $25.75 on February 5, 2010. Shares are up 1,490.8% since March 6, 2009, when the stock touched down at an all time low of $4.33 a share at around the same time the S&P 500 Index hit rock-bottom in the most recent economic recession. Investors unwilling to stand in the way of such a driving force picked up call options on Lululemon to position for additional share price gains going forward. Traders purchased some 1,100 in-the-money calls at the December $65 strike for an average premium of $2.67 each. Call buyers at this strike profit if LULU’s shares exceed the average breakeven price of $67.67 through December expiration. Other bullish players sold roughly 1,650 puts at the December $65 strike to pocket premium of $1.08 per contract. Put sellers keep the full premium received on the transaction as long as shares trade above $65.00 through expiration in one week. Investors short the puts are happy to have shares of the underlying stock put to them at an average price of $63.92 a share in the event that the puts land in-the-money at expiration. Bullish players skipped to the January 2011 contract to purchase out-of-the-money calls, as well. Investors bought more than 1,000 January 2011 $70 strike calls for an average premium of $2.21 each. Uber-bullish players picked up another 2,000 calls at the higher January 2011 $75 strike at an average premium of $1.19 a-pop. Call…
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Which Way Wednesday – Top of the Charts Edition

Is it time to throw fundamentals out the window?  

As we went through the Sept 21st Fed minutes in yesterday's Member chat we read some things that were AWFUL about the economy.  I went through my usual exercise of parsing out the minutes and making comments for Members and it's been a long time since I had to use red highlights that often!  Still the market rallied, ostensibly on the premise that the economy is SO BAD, that the Fed will have no choice but to flood the economy with newly printed Dollars so that a rising tide of currency will lift all asset ships.

The boy from Zimbabwe  on the right is a multi-Trillionaire and those Trillions should be just enough to buy him a loaf of bread if he hurries to the store before they change the prices this morning.  This is what is happening to our own economy, only on a smaller scale (so far).  Our government,  like Zimbabwe, has gotten into so much debt that they can never hope to repay it but new bills keep coming in every day so – What is a government to do?  

Why print more money of course!  

Now, when a bill comes in, they just crank up the presses and drop the fresh bills in an envelope.  Unfortunately, after a while, the people who provide goods and services you and your government pay for begin to catch on that those bills are suddenly very easy to come by and they begin to demand more and more of them as exchange.  It's a little hard to picture unless you run it into the abstract but think of it like an auction, where 5 people have $5 each to bid on 5 items.  Well those items (commodities) will get somewhere between $0 and $5 from the bidders, right?  Now, what happens if one of the bidders prints himself up $45 additional dollars?  Now he can bid $10 on each item and the other bidders will get nothing.

That's what the top 1% are doing with commodities and other assets right now.  The assets are the same assets they were last year and the year before that.  There has been very little variation between supply and demand and demand has probably gone
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September’s Dozen Update

It's only been three weeks but it's time for an update!

Back on the 3rd, I had said: "Let’s take a look at a quick dozen trade ideas for short-term gains.  I like all these stocks long-term too (it’s always better to play short-term where your fallback is you own the stock long-term) but we haven’t been doing much gambling lately as it’s all been boring-old hedged positions that were smart, but not really giving us that immediate satisfaction you can get from some quick, monthly gains."

And what a month it's been, a dozen stocks, about 30 different trade ideas and we're already up to our 50% and 100% goals on most of the shorter-term ones.  The longer-term positions are mostly looking good and we have hedged to cover them but let's go over each postiion to make sure it's worth keeping.   I already called an out on HMY as they poked through $11.50 the other day but that was a directional trade (the October $10s) that was already up 133% and one thing we're not is greedy, right? 

HMY was the only trade that was a pure short-term, directional trade.  Virtually every othe stock had longer components and that's where our decision-making process comes in.  I went over the logic of each entry in the original post and I won't rehash it here as we'll just look over the possible trade adjustments and decide what looks good to keep and what to cash.  For purposes of this discussion, we'll use this multi-chart which indicates the 20 (blue) and 50 (red) dma:

So, how worried are we?  We picked these stocks based on fundamentals.  As you can see, they certainly didn't have any upward momentum on Sept 3rd!  It should be no surprise that they outperformed as the market rose 10% for the month but the question we have to ask now is: How comfortable do we feel about holding them through a downturn?  One of the reasons we us disaster hedges and short-term hedges is that, rather than just feel compelled to cash out as we hit resistance on our positions, we now have a cushion that we can sit back and CALMLY observe how our stocks handle a market pullback

BRCM

  • Sept


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Testy Tuesday – Fed Pop or Drop?

Isn't this exciting? 

We popped all of our 5% levels yesterday, now all we have to do is hold them and we can start looking ahead to the 10% lines.  Just 10 days ago, on Friday the 10th, we did our last multi-chart study and I said in the morning post: "I am not TA guy but If I were a bear, I’d be pretty darned concerned about the charts as it looks to me like the 20-day moving averages are registering a short-term mistake in a generally rising trend."  Look at how those 20 dma's have snapped up in less than 2 weeks (blue lines are mid-points, green circles are 5% levels):

So Gold and Transports are running away with SOX falling behind.  We've been playing the SOX up with USD, which is up 10% since I picked it in that Friday's post but that's been a relative underperformer for us as we nailed the bottom with a buying frenzy into the late August drop which culminated with my very bullish "September's Dozen" from the 3rd.  There were actually 10 stocks and only 9 fit in the multi-chart (I dropped HMY, who already gained 15%) with way more than a dozen trade ideas for our Members to take advantage of the anticipated short-term moves.  Of the 10, only IRM has been laying around but we weren't expecting a quick move on them and played a conservative April spread and took the risk on Oct $22.50 calls, which are our only loser, down 30% at .20 but I still like them if we break up from here.  

The leverage you can gain with option plays is truly stunning.  On BRCM, for example, the trade idea was a straight purchase of the Sept $32 calls for $1.25, BRCM topped out at $35.49 with the calls close to $3 on the 14th and they expired on Friday at $2.16, which is up 72%, even for people who didn't stop out between there and up 140% that Tuesday.  That trade was a combo trade with the sale of the October $30 puts at .70 and those are down to .30 (up 57%) which are well on their way to expiring worthless for a full 100% gain.  We also took an artificial buy/write that stretched from Jan to Jan 2012
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Jobless Thursday – America’s Infrastructure Crisis

What a disaster!

Not only are our students failing to keep up with the rest of the World but America is close to getting a failing grade in Infrastructure.  That’s right, what was once the World’s mightiest and proudest economy, this once great nation of builders has been given an overall grade of D in the American Society of Civil Engineers report on our Infrastructure.

The 2009 Grades include: Aviation (D), Bridges (C), Dams (D), Drinking Water (D-), Energy (D+), Hazardous Waste (D), Inland Waterways (D-), Levees (D-), Public Parks and Recreation (C-), Rail (C-), Roads (D-), Schools (D), Solid Waste (C+), Transit (D), and Wastewater (D-).  Awful?  Shameful?  How about DANGEROUS?  Deadly even…

For one thing, The number of high hazard dams—dams that, should they fail, pose a significant risk to human life—has increased by more than 3,000 just since 2007, when there were "just" 1,000 dams at risk and 3,000 to pro actively maintain but the administration refused to fund the project, now the costs have tripled as the situation deteriorates but that’s nothing compared to what happens if just a few of them break completely.  1,819 dams are now in the "high hazard" category and, with the current budget, for every one damn that is reparied, two more become an emergency.  

In urban areas, roadway congestion tops 40 percent.  According to the report, decades of underfunding and inattention have jeopardized the ability of our nation’s infrastructure to support our economy and facilitate our way of life.  At risk of catastrophic failure besides the dams (including levees) are things like our drinking water, sewage systems, bridges, waterways, rail lines, airports, roadways (especially elevated ones) and, of course, our entire electrical grid.  Additionally, 7 Billion gallons of clean drinking water is lost every day through leaking pipes – that’s 23 gallons per citizen per day WASTED for want of $11Bn in repairs – don’t bother worrying about it, the last Administration wouldn’t fund it in 2001 or 2006 so why bother now – 10 Trillion gallons later? 

The ASCE calculates a 5-year $2.2Tn investment is needed to address the situation, that’s $500Bn (25%) more than it was 5-years ago, when they released their last report and nothing was done by the previous administration.  So, rather than having invested in America, putting people to work and improving EVERYONE’s way of life, we spent over $1Tn fighting a war, another $600Bn a year on our regular military operations and gave over $1Tn worth of taxe breaks…
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September’s Dozen (Members Only)

Not bullish enough?

Let's take a look at a quick dozen trade ideas for short-term gains.  I like all these stocks long-term too (it's always better to play short-term where your fallback is you own the stock long-term) but we haven't been doing much gambling lately as it's all been boring-old hedged positions that were smart, but not really giving us that immediate satisfaction you can get from some quick, monthly gains.

Are these trades riskier?  Sure they are and they are trade ideas under the assumption that we hold our levels today and next week so no staying in them if the market sours but $75 oil and $3.40 copper and 2,200 on the Nas and 1,088 on the S&P give us some pretty easy markers to know if we're still healthy. 

BRCM is my first choice, they are down $5 from the July high and just crossing over the 200 dma at $32.66, which is an excellent line to play the straight stock bullish.  The 50 dma is falling at $34.69 so we want to beware that the run ends there.  They are on track to earn $2.65 this year and that's a p/e of 12.3, which is crazy-low for a stock like this so a great long-term hold:

  • Sept $32 calls at $1.25 have .54 in premium with 2 weeks to go so it's .05 per day to "rent" the stock.
  • Oct $30 puts can be sold for .70 to fully offset the calls or by themselves or a 1/2 sale to knock down the premium.
  • Jan $30/34 bull call spread at $2.15, selling 2012 $22.50 puts for $2 is net .15 on the $4 spread that's $2.71 in the money to start.

TRLG is back near it's post-crash lows.  The company has been building inventory and that freaks out investors but they are also opening stores in London and Tokyo and they just made a deal in German to expand distribution with an existing partner so I don't mind a little stocking up.  P/E around 10 means they are not priced for growth and teen fashion is fickle but I like the stock above the $17.50 line (now $18.75).

  • Selling Apr $15 calls for $1.50 is very attractive as I'd be inclined


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Phil's Favorites

The Portfolio Gap

 

The Portfolio Gap

Courtesy of 

Dalbar is known for publishing a study on returns from equity funds compared to the returns that investors capture in those same funds. Every year reveals the same message: The average investor, with remarkable consistency, underperforms their own investments, ostensibly by buying and selling at inopportune times.

The methodology behind the study has been under assault for at least the last 15 years. Here is ...



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Zero Hedge

Fiat's Failings, Gold, & Blockchains

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Alasdair Macloed via GoldMoney.com,

The world stands on the edge of a cyclical downturn, exacerbated by trade tariffs initiated by America. We know what will happen: the major central banks will attempt to inflate their way out of the consequences. And those of us with an elementary grasp of economics should know why the policy will fail.

In addition to the monetary and debt inflation since the Lehman crisis, it is highly likely the ...



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Digital Currencies

Visualizing The New Cryptocurrency Economy

Courtesy of ZeroeHedge

Over a decade ago, the birth of Bitcoin sparked a revolution in the digital world - and just last year, the number of active cryptocurrencies jumped from roughly 1,600 to over 3,000 worldwide.

As Visual Capitalist's Ashley Viens details below, cryptocurrencies have now evolved past simple digital currencies, offering solutions to meet the complex needs of modern financial markets.

Today’s graphic from Abra visualizes the complex, ever-evolving cryptocurrency ecosys...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Miners Indicator Attempting Multi-Year Breakout, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are Gold Mining stocks about to be sent a bullish signal they haven’t received in years? Possible says Joe Friday.

This chart looks at the Senior Miner/Junior miner (GDXJ/GDX) ratio over the past few years. Historically when the ratio is heading up, miners tend to do very well.

The ratio has created a series of lower highs just below the falling line (1), since the summer of 2016. The ratio is currently testing the strong falling resistance line and the June 2019 highs at (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; If the ratio succeeds in a double breakout at (2), it sends miners a long-awaited bullish message.

...

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Insider Scoop

Scott Galloway Calls For Twitter's Board To Replace 'Part-Time CEO' Jack Dorsey Amid Africa Move Plans

Courtesy of Benzinga

A shareholder in Twitter Inc. (NASDAQ: TWTR) and New York University business professor wrote an open letter Friday to the company's board calling for the replacement of CEO Jack Dorsey.

What To Know

Scott Galloway, who owns more than 330,000 shares of Twitter stock a...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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Chart School

Silver stock taking the sector higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

As the US economy begins to show late cycle characteristics like: GDP slowing, higher inflation, higher wage costs, CEO confidence slump. 

Previous Post: Gold Stocks Review

The big players in the market are looking for the next swing off good value lows. This means more money is finding it way into the gold and silver sector, and it is said gold and silver stocks actually lead the metal prices.

The cycle below shows prices are ready to move in the months ahead (older chart re posted).


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Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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