Posts Tagged ‘ISM manufacturing’

STOCKS RALLY AFTER STRONG ISM REPORT

STOCKS RALLY AFTER STRONG ISM REPORT

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Signs of weakness in the global economy were not apparent in this morning’s ISM report.  Equities were set to tumble 1% this morning after weaker than expected data in China and continued concerns in Europe, but turned around on the ISM’s release.  Econoday detailed the strength of the report:

“Robust month-to-month growth for new orders and employment highlight another very strong ISM manufacturing report. New orders held steady at 65.7, a reading well over breakeven 50 and the third in a row over 60. Employment index was last above 60 back in May in 2004. May’s reading came in at 59.8 for a 1.3 point gain to indicate significant acceleration in hiring.

Other readings include strength for production, backlogs, export orders and continued delays for deliveries. Input prices continue to show significant pressure. The activity in production appears to be drawing inventories which points to a rising necessity for inventory restocking and a future boost for production and employment.

This report is very positive and should help bolster the optimists who say the U.S. economy is on the mend.”

showimage.asp  STOCKS RALLY AFTER STRONG ISM REPORT

Robert Ore, chairman of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is quite confident in the strength of the recovery:

“The manufacturing sector grew for the 10th consecutive month during May. The rate of growth as indicated by the PMI is driven by continued strength in new orders and production. Employment continues to grow as manufacturers have added to payrolls for six consecutive months. The recovery continues to broaden as 16 of 18 industries report growth. There are a number of reports, particularly in the tech sector, of shortages of components; this is the result of excessive inventory de-stocking during the downturn.” 

Econoday:  Definition

The ISM manufacturing composite index is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms from 21 industries in all 50 states. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general


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THOUGHTS ON THIS MORNING’S DATA

THOUGHTS ON THIS MORNING’S DATA

looking at dataCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Mixed bag of data this morning depending on how you want to interpret things.   Retail sales were mixed with discounters performing well and high end retailers performing poorly.  The U.S. consumer continues to keep spending under wraps and is very price conscious when they do buy goods and other items.  This morning’s retail sales data was another sign that the cash for clunkers is going to detract from sales for months to come.  This is by far the most worrisome component of anyone’s v-shaped recovery thesis.  The U.S. consumer is simply not coming back as fast as many would like.

Jobless claims continued to trend sideways at 570K. Continuing claims shot higher to 6.23MM.  This is continuing bad news for U.S. consumers.  570K claims and 6.23MM continuing are truly remarkable figures for an economy that is supposedly on the mend.  This doesn’t bode well for a consumer recovery.  Perhaps most alarming is the sideways movement.  This likely means we’ll see little to no change in overall job losses tomorrow while the market expects a 10% decline in job losses.  Don’t be shocked if we see a figure very close to last month’s 247K….

 THOUGHTS ON THIS MORNINGS DATA

ISM manufacturing was essentially in-line at 48.4. Econoday reports:

But there are definitely signs of improvement that point to a plus 50 reading for the composite index perhaps as soon as next month. Prices jumped 22 points to 63.1, a gain, especially given flat fuel prices, pointing to rising demand for inputs. Business activity, akin to a production index, showed an actual month-to-month increase in August, up more than 5 points to 51.3. This index on the manufacturing side rose above 50 in June, by the way matching that month’s cyclical pivot higher in total U.S. manufacturing sales.

The composite index attempts to anticipate GDP and these results may temper related estimates which have been climbing to as much as 4 percent for next year. But the coincident indicators in this report — the prices index and business activity index — point to ongoing expansion. Yet the headline was weaker than expected, pushing stocks and commodities lower.

All in all, it’s a fairly worrisome set of data for anyone who believes the consumer is going to rebound to their old habits and save the economy.  Thus far, there are little to…
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WHAT’S ON TAP?

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WHAT’S ON TAP?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Another huge week for the markets coming up.  Another 18% of the S&P 500 will report earnings, but the shift will move from major market leaders to second tier companies.  Very few of the reports will be major market movers like we’ve seen in recent weeks.  I expect the impact of earnings to diminish substantially in the coming two weeks.  This is one less log on the rally fire.   The economics news will be front and center including the grand daddy of ‘em all, the NFP report on Friday.

  • Monday: July ISM manufacturing survey, July construction spending, July auto sales
  • Tuesday: June personal income and spending, June pending home sales
  • Wednesday: July ISM services index, June factory orders, July ADP employment survey, weekly crude inventories
  • Thursday: weekly initial jobless claims
  • Friday: July unemployment and change in nonfarm payrolls, June consumer credit

I’ve turned neutral on the market here.  The risk reward appears most unfavorable.  Although I am not directly shorting the equity markets I do have a number of pseudo shorts via the currency and derivatives markets.  My equity exposure has been cut to 0% at this point.  I feel very comfortable with my Thursday sell near S&P 995 after the disturbing late day action on Thursday and Friday.  They say the smart money transacts after 3PM  and the smart money was selling both days.  We’ll see if it materializes into real selling in the coming weeks.  I am having trouble finding a new catalyst for the rally.  Positive earnings and an all out economic recovery are largely being priced into stocks here.  Sentiment is wildly positive in the near-term.  All of this makes me less than excited about buying into the market at these levels.

 

 


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Zero Hedge

Hong Kong Rocked By Biggest March Yet After Extradition Bill Pulled; Millions Demand Lam Resign

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Despite City Executive Carrie Lam's major concession to the protest movement - that is, the (not really) 'indefinite' suspension of the extradition bill that catalyzed the protests - a planned protest march went ahead as scheduled on Sunday, marking the second consecutive Sunday of street protests in Hong Kong.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Colorado Hits $1 Billion In Marijuana State Revenue

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Colorado has passed another major marijuana milestone, surpassing $1 billion in state revenue since it legalized the drug in 2014.

Source: Colorado.gov

Up to May of this year, Statista's Niall McCarthy notes that the state has seen more than $6 billion in total marijuana sales since ...



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Biotech

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

If you’ve got the raw data, why not mine it for more info? Sergey Nivens/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Sarah Catherine Nelson, University of Washington

Back in 2016, Helen (a pseudonym) took three different direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic tests: AncestryDNA, 23andMe and FamilyTreeDNA. She saw genetic testing as a way...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Bugs Index Attempting 8-Year Breakout, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Gold Bugs fans about to receive positive news they haven’t had in years? Possible!

This chart looks at the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) on a weekly basis over a couple of decades. The index has spent the majority of the past 20-year inside of rising channel (1).

The index hit the top of the channel in 2011, where it peaked and started creating a series of lower highs for the past 8-years, which has formed line (2).

The index is now kissing the underside of falling resistance and the underside the 2016/2017 lows at (3).

Joe Friday Just The Fa...



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Insider Scoop

Wedbush: Apple's Stock Could Gain $20-$25 From US-China Trade Deal

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The Sino-American trade dispute and near-term developments could prove to be a "major swing factor" for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), according to Wedbush.

The Analyst

Daniel Ives maintained an Outperform rating on Apple with an unchanged $235 pric...



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Chart School

Silver Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The folks in the federal reserve will debase the US dollar currency to an extreme degree silver will finally lift off the floor.. 

Note: Readers should re watch the silver back screen news video, here.

The following video looks at price action and Wyckoff logic.

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If gold moves, silver wi...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Crashing As Asia Opens, Bitcoin Back Below $8k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Having survived the day's bloodbath in US tech stocks, cryptos are crashing in the early Asian session, apparently playing catch-down to the day's de-risking.

While no catalyst is immediately evident, there are some reports noting 13 large global banks are preparing to launch digital versions of major global currencies next year, though we suspect this drop was more algorithmic that fundamental-driven.

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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