Posts Tagged ‘Jim Chanos’

THE POWER OF NEGATIVE THINKING: 4 SHORT SELLING THEMES

THE POWER OF NEGATIVE THINKING: 4 SHORT SELLING THEMES

Profile of man thinking

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Jim Chanos recently gave an interesting interview on the power of negative thinking and the benefits of short selling.  Most interesting were the 4 major themes Chanos looks for in his short positions.  Much like a long only macro thinker Chanos develops his specific short positions from much larger macro themes.  In the article he detailed the 4 themes he looks for:

Some recurring themes in shorting selling:

  • Booms that go bust – define boom as anything that is fueled by debt in which the cash flows produced by the asset do not cover the cost of the debt.  The internet is not a boom since they didn’t have debt.  The telecom bubble that went along with it was.
  • Consumer fads – Investors like to extrapolate strong growth well further into the future than they should.  It’s also a great source of decoration for your office, he’s got a Cabbage Patch Kid next to a George Forman Grill next to a Nordic Trak.
  • Technological Obsolescence – Everyone thinks the old product will last longer than it actually does.  Examples were Wang Word Processors (replaced by PCs), Record Stores (replaced by digital downloads).  He says the internet is the cheapest way to distribute anything.  However, people are still renting DVDs by mail, which surprises him (hint: likely short Netflix!).  These businesses always look cheap but the cash flow goes down just as fast as the share price (think Kodak film).
  • Structurally flawed accounting – Beware serial acquirers, they often write down the assets of the acquired firm in the stub period that no one sees.  Ask management what the nets assets of the firm were on their latest end of quarter and what they were when they were acquired. Most management won’t tell you this, some will, however.  But by writing down inventory and A/R they can “spring load” results once the company is acquired.  They’re supposed to adjust the purchase price, but more don’t.

Source: Market Folly 


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Chanos: Recurring Themes in Short Selling

Chanos: Recurring Themes in Short Selling

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

I linked to this summation of Jim Chanos’s short selling discussion last night, but I loved the post so much I decided to excerpt the most interesting part.  According to Chanos (via My Investing Notebook), these four themes come up in great shorting opportunities fairly regularly:

1. Booms that go bust – define boom as anything fueled by debt in which the cash flows produced by the asset do not cover the cost of the debt. The Internet is not a boom since they didn’t have debt. The Telecom Bubble that went along with it was.

2. Consumer Fads – investors like to extrapolate strong growth well further into the future then they should. It’s also a great source of decoration for your office, he’s got a Cabbage Patch Kid next to a George Forman Grill next to a Nordic Trak.

3. Technological Obsolescence – Everyone thinks the old product will last longer than it actually does. Examples were Wang Word Processors (replaced by PCs), Record Stores (replaced by digital downloads). He says the internet is the cheapest way to distribute anything. However people are still renting DVDs by mail, which surprises him (Hint: likely short Netflix!). These businesses always look cheap but the cash flow goes down just as fast as the share price (think Kodak and film).

4. Structurally-Flawed Accounting – beware serial acquirers, they often write down the assets of the acquired firm in the stub period that no one sees. Ask management what the net assets of the firm were on their latest end of quarter and what they were when they were acquired. Most management won’t tell you this, some will, however. But by writing down inventory and A/R they can “spring load” results once the company is acquired. They’re supposed to adjust the purchase price but most don’t.

Chanos notes that the Enron short story (which made him famous on its way to zero) was like ‘one-stop shopping’ for these red flags, it featured conference calls with foul language, mark-to-model accounting, off-balance sheet stuff, etc.

I highly suggest you click over to read the whole post if you want to learn more about short selling and its place in finance.

Source:

Jim Chanos: The Power of Negative Thinking (CFA annual conference 2010) 

Photo by Vince Veneziani, Clusterstock 


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Chanos On Chinese Overheating And Overindulgence

Chanos On Chinese Overheating And Overindulgence

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge 

You hear the bull story every day on TV and from the likes of Tom Friedman. Michael Pettis and Chanos take the bear side. Below is a recent must-watch, hour long presentation by Jim Chanos, courtesy of Peter Schiff.

 


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CHANOS: THE CHINA BUBBLE IS ABOUT TO BURST

CHANOS: THE CHINA BUBBLE IS ABOUT TO BURST

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Famed short seller, Jim Chanos, has been vocal in recent weeks about his concerns in China.  He is growing increasingly concerned about the real estate bubble in China where an “unprecedented” and “staggering” bubble is being blown by the government.  Chanos says 30 billion square feet of commercial real estate are under construction – that’s a 5 foot by 5 foot cubicle for every person in China.  Although he isn’t calling for a crash, he is increasingly risk averse: 

 


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Chanos: I warned Brown and Geithner of financial calamity

Chanos: I warned Brown and Geithner of financial calamity

Jim ChanosCourtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

Evidence is now surfacing that Timothy Geithner and Gordon Brown were among policymakers warned in April 2007 of an impending financial crisis. Famed fund manager and shortseller Jim Chanos met with the policy makers at the time, along with several other hedgies during the G-8 Summit in Washington, D.C.

Their worry: an impending financial crisis.  Recalling the events, here’s what Chanos has to say.

Jim Chanos: Well, there was a lot of sort of – you have to keep in mind this was Sunday afternoon. You’re at the end of the conference. But I think we were seen probably as much as an annoyance as anything else from people who wanted to catch a plane or get home.

But there was some uncomfortable paper shuffling. There was sort of, you know, that looking at the ceiling across the table. There was a bit of eye rolling. There’s no doubt about that.

And at the end of my talk the fellow running the meeting asked if there was any questions. There were literally no questions and at that point the Chair of the meeting said, “Well, that’s all very interesting and now what do you think about insurance.”

And it was just that complete realization that we’ve got – it just didn’t sink in, the import was not grasped, certainly by the Chair, that they were gonna move on to the next item on the agenda with nary a bit of discussion.

And then shortly after the meeting ended, a few hours later, there were two central bankers, both EU central bankers who came up to me and with their assistants and we exchanged contact information, and both said they thought that my presentation was very interesting and if I had anything additional please send it to them, and to keep in touch and blah, blah, blah.

And that was sort of it. I was thanked by the U.S. delegation and we went on our way. And both Paul Singer and I left the room sort of incredulous that the presentation…really elicited no official questions or comments.

It sort of reminds one of the famous intelligence memo declaring “Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.

More here. If you’re really interested in this story, the …
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Kimble Charting Solutions

Health Care & Merck Working A Bullish Breakouts!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Health Care (XLV) ETF has lagged the S&P for the past few years. Is the lagging trend about to end? It sure could and we should find out very soon!

This chart looks at the Health Care/S&P Ratio (XLV/SPY), which reflects that it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows inside of falling channel (1). Over the past 6-months the ratio has created a series of higher lows, reflecting out performance of XLV to the broad markets.

The ratio is testing a support/resistance line at (2). If the ratio breaks out at (2), it would suggest that health care stocks wi...



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Zero Hedge

China Set To Make History With Record Number Of Bond Defaults In 2019

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

While China is bracing for what may be a historic D-Day event on December 9, when the "unprecedented" default of state-owned, commodity-trading conglomerate Tewoo with $38 billion in assets may take place, it has already been a banner year for Chinese bankruptcies.

According to Bloomberg data, China is set to hit another dismal milestone in 2019 when a record amount of onshore bonds are set to default, confirming that something is indeed cracki...



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Phil's Favorites

NATO meeting: solidarity reinforced despite uncomfortable time for alliance to be in the spotlight

 

NATO meeting: solidarity reinforced despite uncomfortable time for alliance to be in the spotlight

Courtesy of Megan Dee, University of Stirling

Anniversaries are meant to be a celebration. They represent a moment of reflection – a marker, a milestone, a time to look back. And therein lies their biggest problem. For anniversaries have that unfortunate effect of turning any subject – be it a past event, a married couple, or indeed an international institution – into an object of intense scrutiny. For the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) celebrating its 70th anniversary in London on December 3-4, that scrutiny has come at an unfortunate time.

Founded in 1949 with the signing of the Washington Treaty, NATO at 70 represents one the longest-standi...



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Insider Scoop

38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Ibio Inc (NYSE: IBIO) shares surged 47.8% to $0.2778 on continued momentum after the company joined the manufacturing USA's tissue Biofabrication initiative.
  • Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: PTGX) shares climbed 44% to $6.75. On Tuesday, Protagonist Therapeutics announced results from mid-stage study of PTG-300 in transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia.
  • Relmada Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: RLMD) gained 19.2% to $41.07. Relmada Therapeutics price...


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Digital Currencies

Chinese Crypto Exchange IDAX Locks Cold Wallet As CEO "Goes Missing"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com

Chinese cryptocurrency exchange IDAX has suspended deposits and withdrawals after its CEO allegedly disappeared.

In a blog post on Nov. 29, IDAX, which earlier this week warned it was seeing a run on withdrawals, said the whereabouts of Lei Guorong were currently unkno...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.

Date Found: Tuesday, 09 July 2019, 01:48:48 AM


 

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.





Comment:
FED has no ammo in the next crisis!


Date Found: Friday, 12 July 2019, 02:38:12 AM
 

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Comment:
YIP Corporate debt blows up when econ...



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Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



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Lee's Free Thinking

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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