Posts Tagged ‘job numbers’

TrimTabs: The Real Job Loss Number Was 255,000

The TrimTabs number is a mile (or 244,000) away from the government’s number – why the huge disparity? – Ilene

TrimTabs: The Real Job Loss Number Was 255,000

confusionCourtesy of Joe Weisenthal at Clusterstock

Just about every time the monthly jobs numbers comes out, economic research firm TrimTabs comes out and slams the government’s methodology, usually honing in on the Birth/Death model of new businesses entering the market.

This week is no exception.

Frankly, we’re not sure what to make of their arguments. We’ve been hearing about this Birth-Death issue for a long time, but unless you believe they’re changing their methodology from month to month, then that issue only goes so far.

We welcome your thoughts.

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TrimTabs’ Estimates 255,000 Jobs Lost in November, While BLS Reports a Decline of Only 11,000

BLS Revises September and October Results Down a Whopping 45%

Something’s Not Right in Kansas!

TrimTabs employment analysis, which uses real-time daily income tax deposits from all U.S. taxpayers to compute employment growth, estimated that the U.S. economy shed 255,000 jobs in November.  This past month’s results were an improvement of only 10.2% from the 284,000 jobs lost in October.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. economy lost an astonishingly better than expected 11,000 jobs in November.  In addition, the BLS revised their September and October results down a whopping 203,000 jobs, resulting in a 45% improvement over their preliminary results.

Something is not right in Kansas! Either the BLS results are wrong, our results are in error, or the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

We believe the BLS is grossly underestimating current job losses due to their flawed survey methodology.  Those flaws include rigid seasonal adjustments, a mysterious birth/death adjustment, and the fact that only 40% to 60% of the BLS survey is complete by the time of the first release and subject to revision.  

Seasonal adjustments are particularly problematic around the holiday season due to the large number of temporary holiday-related jobs added to payrolls in October and November which then disappear in January.  In the past two months, the BLS seasonal adjustments subtracted 2.4 million jobs from the results.  In January, when the seasonal adjustments are the largest of the year,


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The Truth About Jobs That No One Wants To Tell You

There’s really no way to cast the job numbers into a positive light.  Robert Reich’s views on the current situation.

The Truth About Jobs That No One Wants To Tell You

Courtesy of Robert Reich writing at Robert Reich’s Blog

Unemployment will almost certainly in double-digits next year — and may remain there for some time. And for every person who shows up as unemployed in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ household survey, you can bet there’s another either too discouraged to look for work or working part time who’d rather have a full-time job or else taking home less pay than before (I’m in the last category, now that the University of California has instituted pay cuts). And there’s yet another person who’s more fearful that he or she will be next to lose a job.

In other words, ten percent unemployment really means twenty percent underemployment or anxious employment. All of which translates directly into late payments on mortgages, credit cards, auto and student loans, and loss of health insurance. It also means sleeplessness for tens of millions of Americans. And, of course, fewer purchases (more on this in a moment).

Unemployment of this magnitude and duration also translates into ugly politics, because fear and anxiety are fertile grounds for demagogues weilding the politics of resentment against immigrants, blacks, the poor, government leaders, business leaders, Jews, and other easy targets. It’s already started. Next year is a mid-term election. Be prepared for worse.

So why is unemployment and underemployment so high, and why is it likely to remain high for some time? Because, as noted, people who are worried about their jobs or have no jobs, and who are also trying to get out from under a pile of debt, are not going do a lot of shopping. And businesses that don’t have customers aren’t going do a lot of new investing. And foreign nations also suffering high unemployment aren’t going to buy a lot of our goods and services.

And without customers, companies won’t hire. They’ll cut payrolls instead.

Which brings us to the obvious question: Who’s going to buy the stuff we make or the services we provide, and therefore bring jobs back? There’s only one buyer left: The government.

Let me say this as clearly and forcefully as I can: The federal government should be spending even more than it…
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Wait a second, is this a recovery or isn’t it?

Good question -

Wait a second, is this a recovery or isn’t it?

By Barbara Kiviat, courtesy of TIME

indicators1

This morning the Conference Board became the latest economy-watching group to call an end to recession. As you can see in the graph above, its index of leading economic indicators—which includes things like stocks prices, building permits and manufacturers’ orders—increased for the fourth month in a row. Its index of coincident economic indicators—such as industrial production, personal income and manufacturing sales—held flat, the first time it didn’t slide since October 2008. The group’s economists think that index will be turning positive before we know it.

And yet the jobs market—the way people most feel a recession—is showing renewed weakness. In another data release this morning, the Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims are heading back up. That’s something of a surprise to economists, who broadly thought the figure would be lower.

For the week ending Aug. 15, initial claims for unemployment insurance came in at 576,000, up from 561,000 the week before. Since that weekly number jumps around a lot, it’s good to look at a four-week moving average. That grew, too, hitting 570,000 weekly claims, up from 565,750. Continuing claims also edged up (as of Aug. 8), though the four-week moving average fell slightly.

What gives? Well, to put those jobs numbers into context, consider that in a healthy economy there are normally 325,000 or fewer initial claims a week. We’re obviously a long way from that sort of figure. But on the upside, initial claims are holding below 600,000, which is one of those psychologically significant Dow 10,000 sorts of numbers. For the entire first half of 2009, we were above the 600,000 threshold. The first week of July we fell below it, and even though there’s been a little bouncing around, we haven’t recrossed that mark.

Does that mean the jobs numbers aren’t as bad as they look? Certainly not for the people being laid off. This could simply be an indication that we’re heading for yet another jobless recovery. That’s what the folks at the San Francisco Fed, among others, have been saying.

And that makes me wonder—if this is going to be our third jobless recovery in a row (1992 kicked off the trend)—what exactly we mean anymore when we talk about…
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Phil's Favorites

How TikTok is upending workplace social media policies - and giving us rebel nurses and dancing cops

 

How TikTok is upending workplace social media policies – and giving us rebel nurses and dancing cops

Front-line workers frequently make short TikTok videos while on the job. Tzido/iStock via Getty Images

Courtesy of Elizabeth C. Tippett, University of Oregon

As the Thanksgiving holiday was winding down, a medical center in Salem, Oregon, found itself in the middle of a frothing social media mess. A nurse named ...



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Politics

As Pandemic Soars to Deadly New Heights, 'Conservative Ideology Itself' Blamed for Disastrous US Response

 

As Pandemic Soars to Deadly New Heights, 'Conservative Ideology Itself' Blamed for Disastrous US Response

"The conservative belief that government is more often the problem than the solution," argue two progressive analysts, "made it practically inevitable that Republicans would render their own government ineffective."

Courtesy of Jake Johnson, Common Dreams

A supporter of President Donald Trump insults counter-protesters during a rally in Washington, D.C., on November 14, 2020. (Photo: Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images)

It is widely agreed that President Donald Trump'...



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Zero Hedge

Stocks Plunge After Pfizer Cuts Vaccine Rollout Target By Half Due To "Supply Chain Obstacles"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

US stocks tumbled during the final hour of trading Thursday as Pfizer revealed that it expects to ship half the number of vaccines this year, raising new questions about the optimistic projections and expectations for the pace of vaccinations.

The company cited supply chain delays tied to the fact that the company has found raw materials in early production that did not meet its standards.

It still expects over 1bln doses rolled out in 2021

"Scaling up the raw material supply chain took longer than expected," a company spokeswoman said. "And it's important to highlight that the outcom...



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ValueWalk

McConnell Continues To Hold Up Covid Pandemic Relief

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

As Another 712K Get Pink Slips, McConnell Insists On More Corporate Giveaways in Lieu of Real Covid Pandemic Relief

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

McConnell Dismisses The Urgently Needed Covid Pandemic Relief

McConnell’s latest proposal offers far too little, too late for those most in need — not a penny for extra unemployment benefits, stimulus checks, or rental assistance, while doing nothing to ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Dow Industrials Test Super Breakout Price Level!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has survived several market scares over the past 5 decades, including the 1987 crash (Black Monday), Tech Bubble, Financial Crisis, and Coronavirus crash.

In a very noisy, news-driven world, sometimes it pays to simply zoom out on the charts and stop thinking about trading every headline.

Today’s chart is a “quarterly” chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (spanning the past 50 years). It includes some relevant Fibonacci price levels for active investors to consider; we apply Fibonacci to the quarterly lows of 1974 and the lows of 2003 and 2009 (that being 100%).

Note that the Dow Industri...



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Chart School

Gold Chart Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold swing trade is due, lets review some charts to see if it is a viable move.

The seasonal period of gold is now upon us, gold should advance for the next 3 months.


Gold Gann Angle Chart ...


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Gold Channel Chart .. close up!



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Gold Channel Chart


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Biotech/COVID-19

Rapid COVID-19 tests can be useful - but there are far too few to put a dent in the pandemic

 

Rapid COVID-19 tests can be useful – but there are far too few to put a dent in the pandemic

Rapid tests for COVID-19 are easy to administer and give fast results. AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File

Courtesy of Bonnie LaFleur, University of Arizona and Katherine Ellingson, University of Ari...



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Digital Currencies

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

 

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

Courtesy of 

Call it the “Respectability Rally”…

A few reasons for Bitcoin’s return to the record highs. It’s about $18,500 as of this writing, matching the previous highs from 2017’s original explosion.

Reason one: It’s going up because it’s going up. Don’t scoff, this is the reason most things in the markets happen and then the explanations are called for afterwards. I’m in financial television, I have literally watched this process occur in real-time. The more something moves in a given direction, the more peop...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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