Posts Tagged ‘jobless rate’

Stephen Roach on discouraged workers

Stephen Roach on discouraged workers

Courtesy of Tim Iacono at The Mess That Greenspan Made 

After last Friday’s print of 9.7 percent for the unemployment rate, more than a few pundits are calling the 10.1 percent jobless rate seen back in October the high for the cycle. It seems to be way too early to make that call based on the millions of "discouraged" workers who, when they start looking for work again, will suddenly count as "unemployed" again.

Stephen Roach seems to agree, figuring that the real jobless rate today is 11.5 percent.
 

The odds of a double-dip recession are now 40 percent? That’s good to know. There’s been a lot of talk about another downturn for the U.S. economy, but it comes as news to me that they’ve already taken the time to poll economists and that they were this pessimistic.


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CHART OF THE DAY: UNEMPLOYMENT NOW LASTS LONGER THAN BENEFITS

CHART OF THE DAY: UNEMPLOYMENT NOW LASTS LONGER THAN BENEFITS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

From Bloomberg:

For the first time, the average amount of time it takes fired employees to find a new job exceeds the length of their standard unemployment benefits.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the average duration of unemployment is now 26.2 weeks, longer than the 26 weeks of state benefits normally provided to workers who lose their jobs. It’s the first time that has occurred since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began keeping records in 1948.

 CHART OF THE DAY: UNEMPLOYMENT NOW LASTS LONGER THAN BENEFITS

The jobless rate rose to 9.8 percent in September, while payrolls fell by 263,000, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington.

Congress has extended unemployment benefits twice — first in July 2008 and then as part of the stimulus bill signed in February. Currently, the unemployed are eligible for a total of 46 weeks of benefits, and those in states where the unemployment rate is more than 6 percent are eligible for 59 weeks.

Those additional benefits expire at the end of the year, and about 1.3 million people will exhaust them by then, according to the National Employment Law Project. An extension of benefits, which was passed by the House of Representatives, is being held up in the Senate by lawmakers who object because their states would be excluded from the plan.

The purple line on the chart shows 5.4 million people have now been out of work for at least 27 weeks, representing 35.6 percent of the total number of unemployed, the most since the agency began keeping statistics in 1948.

Source: Bloomberg

 


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JOBLESS CLAIMS SURGE, SEARS DISAPPOINTS

JOBLESS CLAIMS SURGE, SEARS DISAPPOINTS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

The market continues to fly higher in the face of bad news.  This morning’s jobless claims surged unexpectedly higher to 576K – a truly remarkable figure this far into a “recovery”.  Econoday reports:

Jobless claims data are a disappointment, showing increases in both initial claims and continuing claims. Initial claims for the Aug. 15 week rose 15,000 to 576,000 with the Aug. 8 week revised 3,000 higher. The result is well above expectations for 550,000. Continuing claims for the Aug. 8 week rose 2,000 to 6.241 million for a second increase in three weeks. There are no special factors skewing the data. The four-week average for initial claims rose for a third straight week and is now trailing the latest week at 570,000. The four-week average for continuing claims offers some good news, at 6.266 million for a 3,000 improvement in the week and well down from 6.548 million a month ago. The unemployment rate for insured workers, unchanged at 4.7 percent, also offers some good news. But the headline rise in initial claims is a disappointment pointing to no improvement for August payroll data. Stocks and commodities dipped in immediate reaction to the news.

In other news, Sears reported an absolutely horrible quarter.  Shares are down 13% on the news.  Despite $1B in cost cutting, the company still missed estimates.  Revenues were down 10% year over year while same store sales at KMart and Sears both fell double digits.  The consumer continues to struggle.

Naturally, the S&P 500 is tacking on 0.5% this morning….

 


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Whitney And CNBC

One last thing on Meredith Whitney and the GS upgrade.  For now.

Whitney And CNBC


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Is the U.S. Economy Headed for a “Jobless Recovery?”

Is the U.S. Economy Headed for a “Jobless Recovery?”

By Don Miller
Associate Editor, Money Morning

Could the U.S. economy be looking at a "jobless recovery?"

After the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression reached its apex late last year, the U.S. economy has shown signs of life in recent months. Stock prices have soared. The housing market – once in veritable freefall – seems to be bottoming out in preparation for an eventual upsurge. And just last week, the government said that businesses cut jobs in May at the lowest rate in six months, a report that offered encouragement both to investors and to the millions of U.S. workers who have lost their jobs.

But U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben S. Bernanke threw cold water on hope for a full-blown economic rebound when he hinted that the U.S. labor market could well be facing a jobless recovery – an upturn in which the economy and corporate profits advance, but virtually no new jobs are created to compensate for years of layoffs.

Just this week, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said they see signs that the current turnaround could mimic the aftermath of the 1990-1991 recession – a wheezy, drawn-out recovery with little hiring that means years of additional problems for U.S. workers.

"This projection indicates that the level of labor market slack would be higher by the end of 2009 than experienced at any other time in the post-World War II period,implying a longer and slower recovery path for the unemployment rate," the Fed economists wrote.  "This suggests that, more than in previous recessions, when the economy rebounds, employers will tap into their existing work forces rather than hire new workers. This could substantially slow the recovery of the outflow rate and put upward pressure on future unemployment rates."

Unemployment Damage Widespread

Alongside other economic indications of a stabilizing housing market and rising consumer confidence, the unemployment figures offered a glimmer of hope that we may be on the cusp of an economic turnaround and the end of job destruction.

But it’s highly unlikely this economy will produce meaningful job creation anytime soon.  The financial fallout from the biggest recession in 60 years is likely to be so costly and so pervasive that new-job creation is likely to be virtually nonexistent for years to…
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Phil on MoneyTalk

 

MoneyTalk: Why markets aren't rattled by Trump's troubles

President Donald Trump has stirred up controversy around the world after meeting with NATO allies and Russia's Vladimir Putin. Yet, U.S. markets are still not far off their record highs. Phil Davis, options strategist and founder of philstockworld.com weighs in on how he's playing the market with options.

[In the next clip], Phil Davis discusses his trade strategy and how options can be used in the current market conditions.

...

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Zero Hedge

California Supreme Court Blocks Proposal To Split Up State From November Ballot

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The California Supreme Court has shot down a measure that would have allowed Californians to vote on whether the state should be divided into three smaller states, dealing a serious setback to Venture Capitalist (and Elizabeth Holmes superfan) Tim Draper, who has insisted that the state is "ungovernable" in its current form and spearheaded a campaign to split it up.

The Court on Wednesday sided with an environmental group that had challenged the ballot measure, arguing that the reforms demanded by the ballot measure were "...



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Insider Scoop

Comcast Ends Pursuit Of Fox Assets, Will Focus On Sky

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CMCSA 'Convergence' Is Key: Credit Suisse Weighs In On The Telecom And Media Sector Raymond James: AT&T To Suffer Extend...

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Digital Currencies

Citadel CEO Says Bitcoin Still A "Head Scratcher" But Billionaire Lasry Sees $40,000 Soon

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Ken Griffin, the CEO and founder of the Citadel hedge fund, has reiterated his negative stance on Bitcoin (BTC) in an interview with CNBC this morning.

Speaking at the Delivering Alpha Conference in New York, ...



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Chart School

S&P Firms Breakout As Tech Keep The Pressure On

Courtesy of Declan.

Given overnight news and Netflix disappointment I was surprised to see markets finish as strong as they did given comments on the economy by the Fed Chairman.

The S&P opened at support and 'engulfed' the prior day's trading; it's not a true bullish engulfing pattern as this is a reversal pattern and what we have is a breakout but it does contribute to a confirmation of the breakout.


The Dow Jones is inching towards channel resistance. In the context of other indices, it was a low key day...

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Biotech

How summer and diet damage your DNA, and what you can do

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How summer and diet damage your DNA, and what you can do

Bright sun and fatty foods are a bad recipe for your DNA. By Tish1/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Adam Barsouk, University of Pittsburgh

Today, your body will accumulate quadrillions of new injuries in your DNA. The constant onslaught of many forms of damage, some of which permanently...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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