Posts Tagged ‘jobless rate’

Stephen Roach on discouraged workers

Stephen Roach on discouraged workers

Courtesy of Tim Iacono at The Mess That Greenspan Made 

After last Friday’s print of 9.7 percent for the unemployment rate, more than a few pundits are calling the 10.1 percent jobless rate seen back in October the high for the cycle. It seems to be way too early to make that call based on the millions of "discouraged" workers who, when they start looking for work again, will suddenly count as "unemployed" again.

Stephen Roach seems to agree, figuring that the real jobless rate today is 11.5 percent.
 

The odds of a double-dip recession are now 40 percent? That’s good to know. There’s been a lot of talk about another downturn for the U.S. economy, but it comes as news to me that they’ve already taken the time to poll economists and that they were this pessimistic.


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CHART OF THE DAY: UNEMPLOYMENT NOW LASTS LONGER THAN BENEFITS

CHART OF THE DAY: UNEMPLOYMENT NOW LASTS LONGER THAN BENEFITS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

From Bloomberg:

For the first time, the average amount of time it takes fired employees to find a new job exceeds the length of their standard unemployment benefits.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the average duration of unemployment is now 26.2 weeks, longer than the 26 weeks of state benefits normally provided to workers who lose their jobs. It’s the first time that has occurred since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began keeping records in 1948.

 CHART OF THE DAY: UNEMPLOYMENT NOW LASTS LONGER THAN BENEFITS

The jobless rate rose to 9.8 percent in September, while payrolls fell by 263,000, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington.

Congress has extended unemployment benefits twice — first in July 2008 and then as part of the stimulus bill signed in February. Currently, the unemployed are eligible for a total of 46 weeks of benefits, and those in states where the unemployment rate is more than 6 percent are eligible for 59 weeks.

Those additional benefits expire at the end of the year, and about 1.3 million people will exhaust them by then, according to the National Employment Law Project. An extension of benefits, which was passed by the House of Representatives, is being held up in the Senate by lawmakers who object because their states would be excluded from the plan.

The purple line on the chart shows 5.4 million people have now been out of work for at least 27 weeks, representing 35.6 percent of the total number of unemployed, the most since the agency began keeping statistics in 1948.

Source: Bloomberg

 


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JOBLESS CLAIMS SURGE, SEARS DISAPPOINTS

JOBLESS CLAIMS SURGE, SEARS DISAPPOINTS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

The market continues to fly higher in the face of bad news.  This morning’s jobless claims surged unexpectedly higher to 576K – a truly remarkable figure this far into a “recovery”.  Econoday reports:

Jobless claims data are a disappointment, showing increases in both initial claims and continuing claims. Initial claims for the Aug. 15 week rose 15,000 to 576,000 with the Aug. 8 week revised 3,000 higher. The result is well above expectations for 550,000. Continuing claims for the Aug. 8 week rose 2,000 to 6.241 million for a second increase in three weeks. There are no special factors skewing the data. The four-week average for initial claims rose for a third straight week and is now trailing the latest week at 570,000. The four-week average for continuing claims offers some good news, at 6.266 million for a 3,000 improvement in the week and well down from 6.548 million a month ago. The unemployment rate for insured workers, unchanged at 4.7 percent, also offers some good news. But the headline rise in initial claims is a disappointment pointing to no improvement for August payroll data. Stocks and commodities dipped in immediate reaction to the news.

In other news, Sears reported an absolutely horrible quarter.  Shares are down 13% on the news.  Despite $1B in cost cutting, the company still missed estimates.  Revenues were down 10% year over year while same store sales at KMart and Sears both fell double digits.  The consumer continues to struggle.

Naturally, the S&P 500 is tacking on 0.5% this morning….

 


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Whitney And CNBC

One last thing on Meredith Whitney and the GS upgrade.  For now.

Whitney And CNBC


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Is the U.S. Economy Headed for a “Jobless Recovery?”

Is the U.S. Economy Headed for a “Jobless Recovery?”

By Don Miller
Associate Editor, Money Morning

Could the U.S. economy be looking at a "jobless recovery?"

After the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression reached its apex late last year, the U.S. economy has shown signs of life in recent months. Stock prices have soared. The housing market – once in veritable freefall – seems to be bottoming out in preparation for an eventual upsurge. And just last week, the government said that businesses cut jobs in May at the lowest rate in six months, a report that offered encouragement both to investors and to the millions of U.S. workers who have lost their jobs.

But U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben S. Bernanke threw cold water on hope for a full-blown economic rebound when he hinted that the U.S. labor market could well be facing a jobless recovery – an upturn in which the economy and corporate profits advance, but virtually no new jobs are created to compensate for years of layoffs.

Just this week, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said they see signs that the current turnaround could mimic the aftermath of the 1990-1991 recession – a wheezy, drawn-out recovery with little hiring that means years of additional problems for U.S. workers.

"This projection indicates that the level of labor market slack would be higher by the end of 2009 than experienced at any other time in the post-World War II period,implying a longer and slower recovery path for the unemployment rate," the Fed economists wrote.  "This suggests that, more than in previous recessions, when the economy rebounds, employers will tap into their existing work forces rather than hire new workers. This could substantially slow the recovery of the outflow rate and put upward pressure on future unemployment rates."

Unemployment Damage Widespread

Alongside other economic indications of a stabilizing housing market and rising consumer confidence, the unemployment figures offered a glimmer of hope that we may be on the cusp of an economic turnaround and the end of job destruction.

But it’s highly unlikely this economy will produce meaningful job creation anytime soon.  The financial fallout from the biggest recession in 60 years is likely to be so costly and so pervasive that new-job creation is likely to be virtually nonexistent for years to…
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Zero Hedge

No, Robots Cannot Replace Us

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Per Bylund via The Mises Institute,

Automation seems to be a never-ending source of fear-mongering. Judging from the commentary, robots will “replace us” and cause large-scale unemployment. With the entry of artificial intelligence (AI), and robots that make robots, the value of human beings as productive forces in the economy is simply zero. People then become value-less consumers, only “mouths to feed” while production is carried out by machines.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Breakout

 

Breakout

Courtesy of 

There’s a new kid on the block. Innovator’s IBD® Breakout Opportunities ETF, ticker BOUT.

The goal of this fund is to identify stocks before they break out. Basically, they’re delivering on a style of technical analysis via machine, which I find intriguing.

When I was trading stocks, I would often buy on the breakout and then sell on the retest. Over and over I would let my emotions get the best of me. Needless to say, it was not a profitable strategy.

Theoretically, an algorithm will eliminate some of these biases that all traders have to overcome. Below is ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Connect Series Webinar September 2018

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We cover dominating patterns in major global Indices, sectors, commodities and the metals markets.  We produce chart pattern analysis and empower people to improve entry and exit points.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.

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ValueWalk

Global Return August 2018 Commentary: Thinking Differently

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Global Return Asset Management commentary for the month ended August 31, 2018; discussing Yahoo’s business model.

Dear Friends,

For the month of August, we generated a net return of 2.09%.1 We ended the month with 18% of assets in cash and had a net market exposure of 29%.

Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Below is a new section we’re calling...

Think Differently

The purpose of this section is to...



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Insider Scoop

Discovery Communications' 20% Gain Difficult To Justify, Pivotal Says In Downgrade

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DISCA Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For September 18, 2018 A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futur...

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Members' Corner

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding

 

Adding this article to Members Corner, in case anyone wants to share their opinions on Nike and Kaep, or on divisiveness in general. Also see the article I mentioned in the comments section, "A Warning From Europe: The Worst Is Yet to Come" and What’s behind the current wave of ‘corporate activism’? ~ Ilene

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding

Courtesy of Simon Chadwick, University of Salford...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Chart School

Gold stocks, Elliot Wave and Volume

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Whom ever paints the chart with Elliot wave always has to try and sideline their bias. Elliot wave can work when it applied correctly and the chart is friendly to receive its application.

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Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of ...

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Digital Currencies

A history of Bitcoin - told through the five different groups who bought it

 

A history of Bitcoin – told through the five different groups who bought it

GeniusKp/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Dave Elder-Vass, Loughborough University

The recent fluctuations in Bitcoin’s value are just the latest in a series of spectacular peaks and troughs since it was created in 2009. (Though its price has been falling recently, it remains five times higher than last April, before the l...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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