Posts Tagged ‘KR’

Supervalu Slump Spurs Frenzied Action In Grocers’ Options

 

Today’s tickers: SVU, KR & IYR

SVU - Supervalu, Inc. – Investors lost their appetite for shares in the third-largest U.S. grocer today, sending the stock down 48% to $2.76 after the company suspended its dividend, reported first quarter earnings and sales that missed estimates and said it will explore alternatives for the business. Options activity on Supervalu exploded on the news, with volume exceeding 65,000 contracts versus the stock’s average daily options volume of 4,722 contracts. Puts are changing hands around 1.5 times for each call options in play so far today. Buyers of more than 8,000 puts at the July $3.0 strike for a premium of $0.30 apiece this morning may profit at expiration next week if shares continue to spiral down. Bearish positioning in the Oct. $2.0 strike put, where a block of 5,000 contracts were picked up at a premium of $0.30 each, suggests one strategist may profit if the stock loses another 40% of its value within the next few months to expiration. Contrarian players are also leaving footprints across SVU options today, with around 6,100 calls at the July $3.0 strike purchased at a premium of $0.21 each earlier in the trading session. Shares in Supervalu would need to rebound 16% off the low of $2.76 in order for call buyers to make money at expiration next week.

KR - Kroger Co. – Shares in Kroger are down in sympathy with Supervalu today, trading lower by 3.95% to stand at $21.91 as of 12:45 p.m. in New York. Options on SVU’s competitors in the supermarket space are far more active than usual today, including options on Kroger. Volume currently stands at 5,000 contracts versus average daily options volume of 429 contracts. Trading traffic in options set to expire in January of 2013 points to continued volatility in the grocer’s shares. It looks like one trader purchased around 1,300 calls at the Jan. 2013 $22 strike for a premium of…
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True Religion Falls Apart At The Seams After Earnings

 

Today’s tickers: TRLG, KR & IGT

TRLG - True Religion Apparel, Inc. – Disappointing fourth-quarter earnings and weaker-than-expected 2012 guidance from high-end apparel maker, True Religion, saw shares down as much as 25.0% this morning to $27.57. The sharp pullback in the price of the underlying is a true kick in the pants for some traders holding bullish options, as the value of their positions tumbled overnight. One hard-hit strategy, a bull call spread initiated at $1.50 per contract yesterday afternoon, is practically worthless today. It looks like the trader purchased a 1,000-lot Feb. $37/$41 call spread for a net premium outlay of $1.50 per contract, looking for maximum possible profits of $2.50 per contract provided True Religion’s shares settled above $41.00 by February expiration. As of the close of trading on Thursday, with shares in TRLG at $36.80, the stock would have needed to rally % for the spread to yield maximum gains to the investor. But, with shares now sharply lower, the price of the underlying must soar nearly 40.0% to $38.50 in order for the trader to at least break even on the position. The trader takes maximum possible losses of $1.50 per contract on the spread if shares fail to rally above $37.00 by expiration next week. Meanwhile, investors that purchased bearish or protective put options heading into the earnings report saw the value of their positions soar. One such trade, the purchase of around 500 Feb. $31 puts for an average premium of $0.70 each at the end of January, is up big today. Investors buying the now deep in-the-money puts this morning paid an average premium of $3.22 per contract this morning, or nearly five times as much. Finally, investors positioning for shares in True Religion to extend losses ahead of February expiration snapped up some 500 puts at the $26 strike and another 140 puts at the $25 strike, at average premiums of $0.34 and $0.13 apiece, respectively.…
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CEO Pick for J.C. Penney Sends Options Traders Into Overdrive

Today’s tickers: JCP, CROX, CSCO & KR

JCP - J.C. Penney Co., Inc. – Frenzied options trading ensued following reports that Ron Johnson, head of retail at Apple Inc., was named CEO of J.C. Penney Co. The news drove shares in the department store operator up 19.5% to $35.97by 1:40 pm in New York. The number of options in play on JCP today is approaching 171,000 contracts in afternoon trade, topping overall open interest on the stock of 160,338 contracts.Johnson’s appointment to JCP seems to have injected traders with a renewed sense of optimism on the department store owner. The previous four weeks were not kind to shares in J.C. Penney, which declined 27.3% since mid-May to $29.82 this past Friday.

Investors are exchanging roughly 1.6 call options on JCP for each single put option in action. June and July contract calls are the most active with in- and out-of-the-money call buying a seemingly popular strategy amongst traders. Investors who picked up calls a few hours ago at the start of the rally paid far less than the current asking price on the options in most cases. June $30 strike calls, for example, were purchased around 1,100 times earlier in the session for an average premium of $1.79 each. The now deep in-the-money calls currently tout a hefty price tag of $5.90 per contract. Trading traffic in options expiring this Friday ballooned during the session. Call volume at the June $32strike, the most at any single strike in the front month, is greater than 12,500 contracts against previously existing open positions of 3,818 contracts. Early-birds paid an average premium of around $0.46 per contract for those calls, which now have an asking price of $3.90 a-pop. July contract calls drew crowds, as well. The July $35 and $36 strike…
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Rumor Mill Sends Micron Shares Higher, Inspires Demand for Call Options

Today’s tickers: MU, REE, MEE, DAL, USB, VLTR & KR

MU - Micron Technology, Inc. – Renewed rumors that the memory chip maker could be the target of a leveraged buyout by private equity investors looking to take the company private inspired an options feeding frenzy today. Micron’s shares responded to speculative musings by rising as much as 6.30% to an intraday high of $7.76. Just before 2:00 p.m. in New York trading, one big options market participant initiated a large-volume bullish spread in the April 2011 contract. The debit call spread serves to position the trader to benefit handsomely should buyout rumors wind up having some truth to them ahead of April expiration. The options strategist picked up 21,750 calls at the April 2011 $9.0 strike for a premium of $0.71 each, and sold the same number of calls at the higher April 2011 $11 strike at a premium of $0.27 a-pop. Net premium paid for the transaction amounts to $0.44 per contract. Thus, the investor is prepared to make money should Micron’s shares surge 21.65% over today’s high of $7.76 to exceed the effective breakeven point on the spread at $9.44 by expiration day next year. The trader may pocket maximum potential profits of $1.56 per contract if the chip maker’s shares jump 41.75% to trade above $11.00 by April expiration. Investors populating Micron options during the session exchanged more than 7.1 calls on the stock for each single put in play as of 3:25 p.m. in New York. A total of 146,615 option contracts have changed hands on Micron Technology with 35 minutes to go before the closing bell.

REE - Rare Element Resources Ltd. – Shares in Rare Element Resources Ltd., which has a 100% interest in the Bear Lodge property, rallied more than 19.2% today to…
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Which Way Wednesday – Top of the Charts Edition

Is it time to throw fundamentals out the window?  

As we went through the Sept 21st Fed minutes in yesterday's Member chat we read some things that were AWFUL about the economy.  I went through my usual exercise of parsing out the minutes and making comments for Members and it's been a long time since I had to use red highlights that often!  Still the market rallied, ostensibly on the premise that the economy is SO BAD, that the Fed will have no choice but to flood the economy with newly printed Dollars so that a rising tide of currency will lift all asset ships.

The boy from Zimbabwe  on the right is a multi-Trillionaire and those Trillions should be just enough to buy him a loaf of bread if he hurries to the store before they change the prices this morning.  This is what is happening to our own economy, only on a smaller scale (so far).  Our government,  like Zimbabwe, has gotten into so much debt that they can never hope to repay it but new bills keep coming in every day so – What is a government to do?  

Why print more money of course!  

Now, when a bill comes in, they just crank up the presses and drop the fresh bills in an envelope.  Unfortunately, after a while, the people who provide goods and services you and your government pay for begin to catch on that those bills are suddenly very easy to come by and they begin to demand more and more of them as exchange.  It's a little hard to picture unless you run it into the abstract but think of it like an auction, where 5 people have $5 each to bid on 5 items.  Well those items (commodities) will get somewhere between $0 and $5 from the bidders, right?  Now, what happens if one of the bidders prints himself up $45 additional dollars?  Now he can bid $10 on each item and the other bidders will get nothing.

That's what the top 1% are doing with commodities and other assets right now.  The assets are the same assets they were last year and the year before that.  There has been very little variation between supply and demand and demand has probably gone
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September’s Dozen Update

It's only been three weeks but it's time for an update!

Back on the 3rd, I had said: "Let’s take a look at a quick dozen trade ideas for short-term gains.  I like all these stocks long-term too (it’s always better to play short-term where your fallback is you own the stock long-term) but we haven’t been doing much gambling lately as it’s all been boring-old hedged positions that were smart, but not really giving us that immediate satisfaction you can get from some quick, monthly gains."

And what a month it's been, a dozen stocks, about 30 different trade ideas and we're already up to our 50% and 100% goals on most of the shorter-term ones.  The longer-term positions are mostly looking good and we have hedged to cover them but let's go over each postiion to make sure it's worth keeping.   I already called an out on HMY as they poked through $11.50 the other day but that was a directional trade (the October $10s) that was already up 133% and one thing we're not is greedy, right? 

HMY was the only trade that was a pure short-term, directional trade.  Virtually every othe stock had longer components and that's where our decision-making process comes in.  I went over the logic of each entry in the original post and I won't rehash it here as we'll just look over the possible trade adjustments and decide what looks good to keep and what to cash.  For purposes of this discussion, we'll use this multi-chart which indicates the 20 (blue) and 50 (red) dma:

So, how worried are we?  We picked these stocks based on fundamentals.  As you can see, they certainly didn't have any upward momentum on Sept 3rd!  It should be no surprise that they outperformed as the market rose 10% for the month but the question we have to ask now is: How comfortable do we feel about holding them through a downturn?  One of the reasons we us disaster hedges and short-term hedges is that, rather than just feel compelled to cash out as we hit resistance on our positions, we now have a cushion that we can sit back and CALMLY observe how our stocks handle a market pullback

BRCM

  • Sept


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Testy Tuesday – Fed Pop or Drop?

Isn't this exciting? 

We popped all of our 5% levels yesterday, now all we have to do is hold them and we can start looking ahead to the 10% lines.  Just 10 days ago, on Friday the 10th, we did our last multi-chart study and I said in the morning post: "I am not TA guy but If I were a bear, I’d be pretty darned concerned about the charts as it looks to me like the 20-day moving averages are registering a short-term mistake in a generally rising trend."  Look at how those 20 dma's have snapped up in less than 2 weeks (blue lines are mid-points, green circles are 5% levels):

So Gold and Transports are running away with SOX falling behind.  We've been playing the SOX up with USD, which is up 10% since I picked it in that Friday's post but that's been a relative underperformer for us as we nailed the bottom with a buying frenzy into the late August drop which culminated with my very bullish "September's Dozen" from the 3rd.  There were actually 10 stocks and only 9 fit in the multi-chart (I dropped HMY, who already gained 15%) with way more than a dozen trade ideas for our Members to take advantage of the anticipated short-term moves.  Of the 10, only IRM has been laying around but we weren't expecting a quick move on them and played a conservative April spread and took the risk on Oct $22.50 calls, which are our only loser, down 30% at .20 but I still like them if we break up from here.  

The leverage you can gain with option plays is truly stunning.  On BRCM, for example, the trade idea was a straight purchase of the Sept $32 calls for $1.25, BRCM topped out at $35.49 with the calls close to $3 on the 14th and they expired on Friday at $2.16, which is up 72%, even for people who didn't stop out between there and up 140% that Tuesday.  That trade was a combo trade with the sale of the October $30 puts at .70 and those are down to .30 (up 57%) which are well on their way to expiring worthless for a full 100% gain.  We also took an artificial buy/write that stretched from Jan to Jan 2012
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September’s Dozen (Members Only)

Not bullish enough?

Let's take a look at a quick dozen trade ideas for short-term gains.  I like all these stocks long-term too (it's always better to play short-term where your fallback is you own the stock long-term) but we haven't been doing much gambling lately as it's all been boring-old hedged positions that were smart, but not really giving us that immediate satisfaction you can get from some quick, monthly gains.

Are these trades riskier?  Sure they are and they are trade ideas under the assumption that we hold our levels today and next week so no staying in them if the market sours but $75 oil and $3.40 copper and 2,200 on the Nas and 1,088 on the S&P give us some pretty easy markers to know if we're still healthy. 

BRCM is my first choice, they are down $5 from the July high and just crossing over the 200 dma at $32.66, which is an excellent line to play the straight stock bullish.  The 50 dma is falling at $34.69 so we want to beware that the run ends there.  They are on track to earn $2.65 this year and that's a p/e of 12.3, which is crazy-low for a stock like this so a great long-term hold:

  • Sept $32 calls at $1.25 have .54 in premium with 2 weeks to go so it's .05 per day to "rent" the stock.
  • Oct $30 puts can be sold for .70 to fully offset the calls or by themselves or a 1/2 sale to knock down the premium.
  • Jan $30/34 bull call spread at $2.15, selling 2012 $22.50 puts for $2 is net .15 on the $4 spread that's $2.71 in the money to start.

TRLG is back near it's post-crash lows.  The company has been building inventory and that freaks out investors but they are also opening stores in London and Tokyo and they just made a deal in German to expand distribution with an existing partner so I don't mind a little stocking up.  P/E around 10 means they are not priced for growth and teen fashion is fickle but I like the stock above the $17.50 line (now $18.75).

  • Selling Apr $15 calls for $1.50 is very attractive as I'd be inclined


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Hefty Bullish Plays Constructed on Transocean

Today’s tickers: RIG, AKAM, VPRT, FXI, GMCR, XLP & KR

RIG – Transocean Ltd. – Two massive bullish transactions utilizing nearly 110,000 call options on the provider of offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells indicates at least one big options player is taking a long-term optimistic stance on the stock. RIG’s shares inched up 0.50% this afternoon to trade at $47.00 as of 3:15 pm ET. The nearer-term of the two spreads looks to be a variation on the traditional call butterfly spread because volume at the lower strike price [wing 1] is the same as that used in the body of the butterfly. Typically, a butterfly spread is constructed using a 1X2X1 ratio. The longer-term spread employed in the February 2011 contract looks like a normal butterfly. In this transaction the investor enjoys maximum profits if RIG’s shares surge 38.3% to settle at $65.00 by February expiration day. The transaction involved the purchase of 15,000 calls at the February 2011 $50 strike [wing 1] for an average premium of $5.5250, the sale of 30,000 calls at the February 2011 $65 strike for an average premium of $1.475 [body], and the purchased of 15,000 calls at the higher February 2011 $80 strike for an average premium of $0.425 apiece. The net cost of this transaction amounts to $3.00 per contract. Transocean’s shares must rally 12.8% by February expiration in order for the investor to breakeven on the spread at a share price of $53.00. The investor may accumulate maximum available profits of $12.00 per contract if Transocean’s shares surge 38.3% to $65.00 by expiration day. The spread initiated in the November contract is similar in its bullishness, although differs with respect to the lopsided nature of the wings, time to expiration, and strike price selection. In this trade the investor the purchased 19,500 in-the-money calls at the November $45 strike for an average premium of $6.175, and sold the same number of calls at the higher November $55 strike for an average premium of $2.22 each. The third leg of the trade is half the size, that’s 9,750 calls purchased at the November $65 strike for an average premium of $0.725 apiece. The investor or investors responsible for these transactions are well positioned to benefit handsomely from bullish movement in the price of the underlying shares in the months to come.

AKAM – Akamai Technologies, Inc. –
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Buy-Write Strategist Positions for Halliburton Rebound

Buy-write strategist positions for Halliburton rebound

Today’s tickers: HAL, RDC, CHK, AMAT, M, KR, HOLX, XLF, LVS & AVNR

HAL – Halliburton Co. – The provider of services, products, maintenance, engineering and construction to oil and natural gas companies around the globe was rated new ‘accumulate’ with a 12-month target share price of $28.00 at Madison Williams today. Perhaps the new rating inspired the bullish buy-write strategy initiated on the stock in the October contract this afternoon. Halliburton’s shares rallied 1.95% in morning trading to touch an intraday high of $24.14, but inched lower during the session to trade flat at $23.68 as of 2:55 pm (ET). The optimistic options investor enacted the buy-write strategy, or covered call play, by selling 2,500 calls at the October $28 strike price for a premium of $1.17 apiece. The investor likely purchased approximately 250,000 Halliburton shares around the same time for an average price of $23.35 apiece. The sale of the call options effectively reduces the price paid per share to $22.18 each. This strategy positions the investor to accrue maximum gains of 26.23% if HAL’s shares rally above $28.00 by October expiration. If the stock does surge through $28.00, the calls will likely be exercised and the investor will have the underlying shares called from him at $28.00 each, leaving the covered-call seller with significant profits in pocket.

RDC – Rowan Companies, Inc. – Shares of the manufacturer of equipment utilized in the drilling, mining and timber industries are lower by 3.90% to stand at $23.72 in late afternoon trading after the Obama administration extended a ban on offshore drilling. Rowan’s shares have recovered somewhat after plummeting 16.7% from an intraday high of $25.58 in morning trading down to an intraday low of $21.26 this afternoon. Bearish options traders scrambled to establish pessimistic positions in the June contract. Investors purchased 1,600 puts at the June $20 strike for an average premium of $0.41 apiece, suggesting some strategists are bracing for continued share price erosion ahead of June expiration. June $20 strike put buyers make money if Rowan’s shares slide 17.4% from the current price of $23.72 to breach the average breakeven point to the downside at $19.59. Investors also purchased 1,300 puts at the higher June $22.5 strike for a premium of $0.93 each, and picked up roughly 2,400 in-the-money puts at the June $25 strike for an average premium of $1.95…
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Phil's Favorites

Peace advocates have long been found among veterans who fought in America's wars

 

Peace advocates have long been found among veterans who fought in America's wars

Veterans for Peace gather for a Veterans Day ceremony at the Minnesota State Capitol mall, Nov. 11, 2014, in St. Paul. AP/Jim Mone

Courtesy of Michael Messner, University of Southern California – Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

If President Donald Trump had gotten his way, the nation would have celebrated the centennial of the World War I armistice last year on Nov. 11 with ...



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Zero Hedge

China's Credit Creation Unexpectedly Collapses At The Worst Possible Time

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Over the weekend, we observed that China's slumping wholesale inflation, or PPI, which is so critical for corporate profits and sparking benign, demand-driven inflation in the economy, and which in October tumbled to a three year low assuring that Chinese dumping and exports of deflation will only further depress global reflation efforts...

...



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Insider Scoop

6 Stocks To Watch For November 11, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects Qurate Retail, Inc. (NASDAQ: QRTEA) to report quarterly earnings at $0.30 per share on revenue of $3.13 billion before the opening bell. Qurate Retail shares fell 0.2% to $9.38 in after-hours trading.
  • Pingtan Marine Enterprise Ltd (NASDAQ: PME) ...


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The Technical Traders

Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Investing - Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

This current market environment is very reminiscent of the 2006-08 market environment where price rotated into weakness on technicals and continued to establish new all-time price highs in the process – creating what we are calling a “zombie-land melt-up”.  This very dangerous price action is indicative of money chasing a falling trend.  Where technicals and fundamentals are suggesting that price is actually weakening quite substantial, yet the process of price exploration is continually biased towards the upside as investors continue to pile onto the back of the beast expecting a further melt-up.

Let’s take a look at what happened to the ES and Gold in 2006 an...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Indicator Sending Fresh Bearish Message, Says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could the Gold/US Dollar ratio be sending a fresh concerning message to Gold bulls this week? Joe Friday says Yes!

This chart looks at the Gold/Dollar ratio over the past 8-years.

The intersection of two long-term channel met at (1) a few months ago. The ratio was testing the bottom of one as resistance and the top of another as resistance at the same time.

As the ratio was testing both channels as resistance, a sizeable bearish reversal pattern took place at (1).

Since the reversal pattern took place, the ratio has been heading lower.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; The ratio is breaking below...



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Digital Currencies

3 Reasons Why One Trader Didn't "Manipulate" Bitcoin Price To $20K

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin price highs in 2017 were not the result of a single trader on an exchange, the CEO of payment company Circle claims. In a series of tweets on Nov. 4, Jeremy Allaire disputed ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann and Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold has performed well, golden skies are here again. In fact it has been a straight line move, and this is typically unusual and a pause can be expected.

It seems the markets are happy again, new highs in the SP500, US 10 year interest rates look to re bound, negative interest may soften. The US FED has reversed their QT and now doing $250BN (not QE) repo. The main point is the FED has stopped QT, and will do QE forever. The evidence now is the FED put is under market risk and the possibility of excessive losses do not exist. 

Point: If in future if there is market risk, the FED will print it's way out of it.
Subject To: In this blog view. The above is so until the amount required rocks confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency.&n...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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