Posts Tagged ‘Kyle Bass’

Kyle Bass With David Faber: Bernanke’s ZIRP Is An ‘Inescapable Trap;’ Muni Bond Bloodbath Beckons But “States Will NOT Default”

Courtesy of The Daily Bail  

CNBC Video – Kyle Bass with David Faber – Feb. 16, 2011 

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Video – Part 2

Source – CNBC

Municipal bond defaults on the local level are likely and investors would be better off avoiding them, according to Kyle Bass, managing director of Hayman Capital.

Bass said he generally agrees with the call by famed banking analyst Meredith Whitney, who said as many as 100 defaults are likely that will cost more than $100 billion in damage.

Though Whitney’s call has prompted substantial backlash from her colleagues in the industry, Bass said the question is more a matter of degree.

"There are going to be a number of muni defaults, but it’s where you draw the line.  Will states be allowed to default?  Will legislation be introduced to allow states to restructure?  I don’t believe that’s the case.  I believe states will not default." 


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Kyle Bass: Be Warned…

Courtesy of Karl Denninger, The Market Ticker

He sees this the way I do, and note carefully: He was right about the subprime and housing in general too. 

Two parts:

 

Note that when he presented his views years ago to the big banks, he was told "I hope to God you’re wrong."

He wasn’t.


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No Way Out For Japan

No Way Out For Japan

Courtesy of Mish

The Business Insider has a fantastic Interview With Hayman Capital Founder Kyle Bass. Bass testified at the crisis hearings in Washington, about Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, bank capital, bank leverage and derivatives. He discussed those issues with CNBC’s David Faber along with his forecast for Japan.

Here is a partial transcript.

Kyle Bass: …. China and Japan own a lot of Fannie and Freddie Debt. I think we are more sensitive to them losing money than we are to the US taxpayer losing money and I think that has to change. … Fannie and Freddie have paid $200 million into campaigns of 354 politicians over the last 10 years. This is an organization created by the lawmakers. Why are they paying the lawmakers? Let’s get rid of this structure and just have the government make mortgage loans. …

David Faber: Let’s talk briefly about some other things you are doing at Hayman. … We saw the mini-blowup in Dubai, we have heard a lot about Greece, when you look at the totality of sovereign risk, where are you focused?

Kyle Bass: I think the big canary in the coalmine is Japan. When you see how Japan has lost 20 years of their prosperity from 1990 to today, you see what happens when a government steps in and runs giant deficits to make up for the private market place pulling back and attempting to deleverage.

So what we’ve seen around the globe in the developed world, bad private assets are moving onto public balance sheets. Sovereign balance sheets have expanded 86% from pre-crisis levels of debt. If you extrapolate that from the beginning levels of debt, many of these countries around the world won’t be able to service their debt. So I think in the next 2-3-4 years you start to see
significant defaults.

David Faber: Do you believe Japan is in a position where it might default and/or devalue its currency as well, in the next 3-4 years?

Kyle Bass: I do not think Japan has a way out of this.

David Faber: Why Not?

Kyle Bass: You have a secular decline in population, and you have a huge funding structure at below market rates. So Japan’s weighted cost of capital is only 1.4% and their sovereign balance sheet is much worse


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Former Fannie Chief Credit Officer Says FHA Is $54 Billion Underwater

Former Fannie Chief Credit Officer Says FHA Is $54 Billion Underwater

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

In keeping with the warnings presented by Kyle Bass warned that the entire housing bubble is now being ported over to the taxpayer’s balance sheet, Edward Pinto, a former chief credit officer for Fannie Mae claims that the Federal Housing Administration will likely require a major taxpayer bailout "in the next 24 to 36 months" as it is likely to incur $56 billion more in losses than it can withstand.

For those that think the NINJA loans are a thing of the past, think again – the Fed is now actively encouraging just those same reckless standards that brought America to the brink:

The FHA program’s volumes have quadrupled since 2006 as private lenders and insurers pulled back amid the U.S. housing slump, Pinto said. The trend has left the agency backing risky loans and exposed to fraud in a “market where prices have yet to stabilize,” he said. The program insures loans with down payments as low as 3.5 percent and has no formal credit-score requirements.

The FHA Commissioner, David Stevens, is keeping to his side of the story, which is that everything is being properly accounted for, and there is no risk in the future of the Administration. Don’t expect this story to change until the next time the handout hat startrs getting tossed around legislators. In the meantime, the deterioration in loan standards keeps accelerating:

About 14.4 percent of FHA loans were delinquent as of June 30 and 2.98 percent were already being foreclosed upon, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The combined percentage for all mortgages was a record 13.16 percent, according to data from the Washington-based trade group, which said in releasing the figures the share of FHA loans past due is being suppressed by the large amount new debt.

So there you have it: housing bubble 2.0, now openly sponsored by the Administration. The more things change (insert appropriate slogan reference here)…

Mr. Pinto’s 94 page testimony and presentations and provided below, which are a must read for those who care to see what a reflating bubble looks like.

 


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Zero Hedge

Gen Z Will Ditch Alcohol To Become The "Ultimate" Marijuana Consuming Generation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

America's newest generation is growing up in a marijuana environment that is unlike anything ever seen in the U.S.

Generation Z has never experienced an era where marijuana was looked upon as a "scourge", or the source of extreme political ire - instead, they have only known an era where cannabis is being relentlessly pushed toward acceptance and legality. In fact, California voted to legalize medical marijuana in 1996, just one year before the eldest Generation Z consumers were born, ...



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Phil's Favorites

How Does this Happen?

 

How Does this Happen?

Courtesy of 

Apple has added $286 billion in market capitalization over the past 73 trading sessions. That’s $10 million every minute.

There are only 11 companies in the United States with a higher valuation than what Apple managed to tack on since January 3rd.

The biggest stock in the world gained 43% in under four months. How does something like this happen?

This question is a Rorschach test of sorts. Some people will see this and scoff at the idea that m...



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Insider Scoop

Uber To Sell Minority Stake Of Its Autonomous Vehicle Unit To Japanese Consortium

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Uber Technologies is planning to sell a 14 percent stake in its autonomous vehicle unit to existing investor Softbank, Japanese automaker Toyota, and auto parts manufacturer Denso ahead of its much-anticipated initial public offering (IPO), which is expected to happen in May. Though...



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Digital Currencies

5 Cryptocurrency Tax Questions To Ask On April 15th

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by David Kemmerer via CoinTelegraph.com,

Depending on what country you live in, your cryptocurrency will be subject to different tax rules. The questions below address implications within the United States, but similar issues arise around the world. As always, check with a local tax professional to assess your own particular tax situation.

...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 18 October 2018, 05:33:01 PM

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Comment: Why The Stock Market Is Heading For Disaster youtu.be/Gubf0A5pHL0



Date Found: Monday, 29 October 2018, 12:55:07 PM

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Comment: Ross Beaty: We Are Star...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Bear Market Faces Big Price Support Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

When silver, gold, and the precious metals industry were red-hot bullish in the 2000’s, investors could do no wrong.

You could buy SILVER at just about any price and it would go higher.

In today’s chart, you can see three large green bullish ascending triangles from the 2000’s that lead to big gains. But that was the bull market before the current bear market.

The tables have turned since the 2011 price top. Silver quickly formed a bearish descending triangle and fell another 50 percent when that broke down. This sent a vicious bear mark...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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