Posts Tagged ‘leading economic indicators’

Leading Economic Indicators Negative for First Time in a Year

Leading Economic Indicators Negative for First Time in a Year

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data  

With everything else going on in the world, the markets did not take the following well.

Daily Markets details:

Thursday morning, the Conference Board released its report on leading economic indicators in the month of April, showing that its leading economic indicators index unexpectedly declined for the first time in more than a year.

The report showed that the leading economic index edged down by 0.1 percent in April following a downwardly revised 1.3 percent increase in March. The decrease came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the index to increase by 0.2 percent.

 
Source: Conference Board 

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Can We Really Trust The Leading Economic Indicators?

Can We Really Trust The Leading Economic Indicators?

Courtesy of Mish 

Leading economic indicators are soaring and inquiring minds are wondering if they signal a strong recovery is in the works. First let’s consider the Bullish case from the ECRI.

Please consider U.S. recovery ‘unlikely to falter’ anytime soon-ECRI

Oct 2 (Reuters) – An index of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, but its yearly growth rate climbed to a new record high, indicating a smooth recovery in the near-term, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 127.1 in the week to Sept. 25 from an upwardly revised 127.9 the prior week, which was originally reported as 127.8.

Last week’s figure marked a 60-week high.

The index’s yearly growth rate rose to new all-time high of 25.1 percent in the latest reading from 24.3 percent the prior week.

"With WLI growth rising to yet another record high, the economic recovery is highly unlikely to falter in the next few months," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

Double Dip Recession Out Of The Question

In August the ECRI said U.S. double-dip recession "out of the question".

"With WLI growth continuing to surge through late summer, a double dip back into recession in the fourth quarter is simply out of the question," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan, reinstating the group’s recent warning to ignore negative analyst projections.

I would agree that a slip back into recession in the 4th quarter is unlikely, assuming of course it is even possible. Bear in mind, we have not had an official end of this recession declared yet.

However, putting such a short-term target on things while telling people to "ignore negative analyst projections" is quite a bit over the top.

Strongest Recovery Since Early 1980s

Also in August the ECRI declared US recovery may be strongest since early 1980s.

ECRI Says Inflation On Cusp Of Upswing

In October, the ECRI issued an inflation warning. Please consider US inflation on ‘cusp of cyclical upswing’.

Oct 2 (Reuters) – A monthly gauge of U.S. inflation pressures continued to rise in September to an 11-month high, suggesting an upswing in prices expected in an economic recovery, a research group said on Friday.

The


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Leading Indicators Show Continued Strength

Leading Indicators Show Continued Strength

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data

The Conference Board details:

LEI for the U.S. increased for the fifth consecutive month in August. Supplier deliveries, the interest rate spread and stock prices made large positive contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting the substantial negative contribution from real money supply. The six month change in the index has picked up to 4.4 percent (about an 8.9 percent annual rate) in the period through August, up sharply from -2.4 percent (a -4.7 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been widespread in recent months.

It is interesting to see that the money supply is no longer a "wind at the sail" (i.e. it is decreasing).

Source: Conference Board

 


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Leading Indicators Point to Economic Rebound

Leading Indicators Point to Economic Rebound

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data  

Marketwatch reports:

An economic recovery may begin soon, and the recession is bottoming out, the Conference Board said Thursday. For its fourth consecutive monthly gain, the index of leading economic indicators rose in 0.6% in July, following an upwardly revised increase of 0.8% in June. Economists polled by MarketWatch were looking for a gain of 0.7% in July.

The interest rate spread was the largest positive contributor, while a reading on consumer expectations was the largest negative contributor. Overall, six of the 10 indicators were positive contributors, three were negative, and one was steady. The six-month growth rate for the overall index hit its highest level since mid-2004, according to the Conference Board.

economic indicators

Source: Conference Board

 


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Phil's Favorites

Black Friday for Amazon workers: the human costs behind consumer convenience

 

Black Friday for Amazon workers: the human costs behind consumer convenience

Frederic Legrand - COMEO / Shutterstock

Courtesy of Tom Vickers, Nottingham Trent University

With the holiday shopping season upon us, many people will be taking advantage of the low prices and speedy delivery promised by Amazon. The online retail giant is more popular than ever, and it is bringing on thousands more employees to meet demand.

...

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Biotech/COVID-19

Antibiotic resistance is at a crisis point - government support for academia and Big Pharma to find new drugs could help defeat superbugs

 

Antibiotic resistance is at a crisis point – government support for academia and Big Pharma to find new drugs could help defeat superbugs

Bacteria that are resistant to every available antibiotic in the U.S. already exist. Rodolfo Parulan Jr/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Andre Hudson, Rochester Institute of Technology

Antibiotic resistance poses one of the most important health challenges of the 21st century. And time has already run out to stop its dire consequences.

The rise of ...



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Zero Hedge

You Only Die Once As TINA Quietly Leaves The Building

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

It was about a year ago when we first pointed out a remarkable divergence in this broken market: retail investors (as proxied by the 50 most popular retail-held stocks) were outperforming the smart money by a factor of 10 to 1 (and blowing out the S&P500 in the process).

Is This The End For Hedge Funds: Retail Investors Outperform "Smart Money" Ten-To-One https://t.co/UsGDZKCnIx

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 13, 2020

But while retail investors conti...



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Politics

Turkey's currency crisis is a textbook example of what not to do with interest rates

 

Turkey’s currency crisis is a textbook example of what not to do with interest rates

Another fine mess. ToskanaINC

Courtesy of Gulcin Ozkan, King's College London

Central banks around the globe are currently staring at inflation rates unseen in more than 20 years. Supply chain problems and labour shortages arising from the pandemic, combined with sharply rising food and energy prices, have pushed prices up by as much as 6.2%...



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Chart School

US Reserve Asset vs Gold and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold and silver move relative to US interest rates and the US Dollar.

So lets use a custom index of US dollar and US 10 yr interest rates and see what happens.


shrink










NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.

Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of ...

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Digital Currencies

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

 

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

Safe as houses? iQoncept

Courtesy of Jean-Philippe Serbera, Sheffield Hallam University

Cryptocurrencies have had an exceptional year, reaching a combined value of more than US$3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) for the first time in November. The market seems to have benefited from the public having tim...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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