Posts Tagged ‘leading economic indicators’

Leading Economic Indicators Negative for First Time in a Year

Leading Economic Indicators Negative for First Time in a Year

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data  

With everything else going on in the world, the markets did not take the following well.

Daily Markets details:

Thursday morning, the Conference Board released its report on leading economic indicators in the month of April, showing that its leading economic indicators index unexpectedly declined for the first time in more than a year.

The report showed that the leading economic index edged down by 0.1 percent in April following a downwardly revised 1.3 percent increase in March. The decrease came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the index to increase by 0.2 percent.

 
Source: Conference Board 

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Can We Really Trust The Leading Economic Indicators?

Can We Really Trust The Leading Economic Indicators?

Courtesy of Mish 

Leading economic indicators are soaring and inquiring minds are wondering if they signal a strong recovery is in the works. First let’s consider the Bullish case from the ECRI.

Please consider U.S. recovery ‘unlikely to falter’ anytime soon-ECRI

Oct 2 (Reuters) – An index of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, but its yearly growth rate climbed to a new record high, indicating a smooth recovery in the near-term, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 127.1 in the week to Sept. 25 from an upwardly revised 127.9 the prior week, which was originally reported as 127.8.

Last week’s figure marked a 60-week high.

The index’s yearly growth rate rose to new all-time high of 25.1 percent in the latest reading from 24.3 percent the prior week.

"With WLI growth rising to yet another record high, the economic recovery is highly unlikely to falter in the next few months," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

Double Dip Recession Out Of The Question

In August the ECRI said U.S. double-dip recession "out of the question".

"With WLI growth continuing to surge through late summer, a double dip back into recession in the fourth quarter is simply out of the question," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan, reinstating the group’s recent warning to ignore negative analyst projections.

I would agree that a slip back into recession in the 4th quarter is unlikely, assuming of course it is even possible. Bear in mind, we have not had an official end of this recession declared yet.

However, putting such a short-term target on things while telling people to "ignore negative analyst projections" is quite a bit over the top.

Strongest Recovery Since Early 1980s

Also in August the ECRI declared US recovery may be strongest since early 1980s.

ECRI Says Inflation On Cusp Of Upswing

In October, the ECRI issued an inflation warning. Please consider US inflation on ‘cusp of cyclical upswing’.

Oct 2 (Reuters) – A monthly gauge of U.S. inflation pressures continued to rise in September to an 11-month high, suggesting an upswing in prices expected in an economic recovery, a research group said on Friday.

The


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Leading Indicators Show Continued Strength

Leading Indicators Show Continued Strength

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data

The Conference Board details:

LEI for the U.S. increased for the fifth consecutive month in August. Supplier deliveries, the interest rate spread and stock prices made large positive contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting the substantial negative contribution from real money supply. The six month change in the index has picked up to 4.4 percent (about an 8.9 percent annual rate) in the period through August, up sharply from -2.4 percent (a -4.7 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been widespread in recent months.

It is interesting to see that the money supply is no longer a "wind at the sail" (i.e. it is decreasing).

Source: Conference Board

 


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Leading Indicators Point to Economic Rebound

Leading Indicators Point to Economic Rebound

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data  

Marketwatch reports:

An economic recovery may begin soon, and the recession is bottoming out, the Conference Board said Thursday. For its fourth consecutive monthly gain, the index of leading economic indicators rose in 0.6% in July, following an upwardly revised increase of 0.8% in June. Economists polled by MarketWatch were looking for a gain of 0.7% in July.

The interest rate spread was the largest positive contributor, while a reading on consumer expectations was the largest negative contributor. Overall, six of the 10 indicators were positive contributors, three were negative, and one was steady. The six-month growth rate for the overall index hit its highest level since mid-2004, according to the Conference Board.

economic indicators

Source: Conference Board

 


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ValueWalk

Biden's $1.9 Trillion COVID Relief Proposal Met Expectations

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Commenting on Biden’s COVID relief proposal meeting expectations and today’s trading, Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Biden's $1.9 Trillion COVID Relief Proposal

The major indices are all trading lower at midday as the combination of a batch of weak economic numbers, mixed earnings, and negative COVID headlines triggered a pullback in the leading sectors of the market. Pfizer (PFE, -0.7%) admitted that it will temporarily delay its vaccine shipments to Eu...



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Phil's Favorites

The Stock Market Is Broken as a Bellwether; Here's How to Fix It

Courtesy of Pam Martens

By Pam Martens: January 15, 2021 ~

I sat behind a trading terminal at two Wall Street firms from 1986 to 2006. I can assure you that if the President of the United States was refusing to accept the outcome of a presidential election and urging a coup d’é·tat by his civilian militia, the stock market would have sold off by double digits. This era’s stock market has yawned at the spectacle.

I can further assure you that if an actual, violent coup d’état did occur inside the ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper Suggesting Economic Growth Peaks Here?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The broader commodities market is enjoying a multi-month rally that has seen momentum carry over into early 2021.

One area of commodities that’s seen a big lift is the metals space. We hear a lot about gold and silver, but how about copper?

One look at today’s chart and it’s clear that Doc Copper is on fire.

The long-term “monthly” chart highlights Copper’s multi-month thrust higher. It also shows Copper futures prices hitting a significant band of triple resistance this month. Line (1) has been tested several tim...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Zero Hedge

UC San Diego Installs COVID Test Kit Vending Machines 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

With daily COVID-19 infections getting worse over the last couple of months in Southern California, one university has decided to introduce coronavirus testing vending machines, reported Reuters

Students at the University of California's San Diego campus were greeted with eleven vending machines over the winter semester packed with do-it-yourself COVID-19 tests. 

School officials told Reuters the vending machines are the first of their kind to be insta...



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Politics

The Confederate battle flag, which rioters flew inside the US Capitol, has long been a symbol of white insurrection

 

The Confederate battle flag, which rioters flew inside the US Capitol, has long been a symbol of white insurrection

A historic first: the Confederate battle flag inside the U.S. Capitol. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jordan Brasher, Columbus State University

Confederate soldiers never reached the Capitol during the Civil War. But the Confederate battle flag was flown by rioters in the U.S. Capitol building for the first time ever on Jan. 6.

The flag’s prominence in the Capitol riot comes a...



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Chart School

Best Wyckoff Accumulation for 2020

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Yes folks there has to be a winner. Price and volume in the right place. Very nice eye candy!


Introduction ...

Ethereum was posted on RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog for monitory and trade entry. To watch the RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog is part of the RTT Plus service. After all you only need one to two great accumulations in a year and returns will be fantastic.






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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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