Posts Tagged ‘leading economic indicators’

Leading Economic Indicators Negative for First Time in a Year

Leading Economic Indicators Negative for First Time in a Year

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data  

With everything else going on in the world, the markets did not take the following well.

Daily Markets details:

Thursday morning, the Conference Board released its report on leading economic indicators in the month of April, showing that its leading economic indicators index unexpectedly declined for the first time in more than a year.

The report showed that the leading economic index edged down by 0.1 percent in April following a downwardly revised 1.3 percent increase in March. The decrease came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the index to increase by 0.2 percent.

 
Source: Conference Board 

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Can We Really Trust The Leading Economic Indicators?

Can We Really Trust The Leading Economic Indicators?

Courtesy of Mish 

Leading economic indicators are soaring and inquiring minds are wondering if they signal a strong recovery is in the works. First let’s consider the Bullish case from the ECRI.

Please consider U.S. recovery ‘unlikely to falter’ anytime soon-ECRI

Oct 2 (Reuters) – An index of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, but its yearly growth rate climbed to a new record high, indicating a smooth recovery in the near-term, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 127.1 in the week to Sept. 25 from an upwardly revised 127.9 the prior week, which was originally reported as 127.8.

Last week’s figure marked a 60-week high.

The index’s yearly growth rate rose to new all-time high of 25.1 percent in the latest reading from 24.3 percent the prior week.

"With WLI growth rising to yet another record high, the economic recovery is highly unlikely to falter in the next few months," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

Double Dip Recession Out Of The Question

In August the ECRI said U.S. double-dip recession "out of the question".

"With WLI growth continuing to surge through late summer, a double dip back into recession in the fourth quarter is simply out of the question," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan, reinstating the group’s recent warning to ignore negative analyst projections.

I would agree that a slip back into recession in the 4th quarter is unlikely, assuming of course it is even possible. Bear in mind, we have not had an official end of this recession declared yet.

However, putting such a short-term target on things while telling people to "ignore negative analyst projections" is quite a bit over the top.

Strongest Recovery Since Early 1980s

Also in August the ECRI declared US recovery may be strongest since early 1980s.

ECRI Says Inflation On Cusp Of Upswing

In October, the ECRI issued an inflation warning. Please consider US inflation on ‘cusp of cyclical upswing’.

Oct 2 (Reuters) – A monthly gauge of U.S. inflation pressures continued to rise in September to an 11-month high, suggesting an upswing in prices expected in an economic recovery, a research group said on Friday.

The


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Leading Indicators Show Continued Strength

Leading Indicators Show Continued Strength

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data

The Conference Board details:

LEI for the U.S. increased for the fifth consecutive month in August. Supplier deliveries, the interest rate spread and stock prices made large positive contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting the substantial negative contribution from real money supply. The six month change in the index has picked up to 4.4 percent (about an 8.9 percent annual rate) in the period through August, up sharply from -2.4 percent (a -4.7 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been widespread in recent months.

It is interesting to see that the money supply is no longer a "wind at the sail" (i.e. it is decreasing).

Source: Conference Board

 


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Leading Indicators Point to Economic Rebound

Leading Indicators Point to Economic Rebound

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data  

Marketwatch reports:

An economic recovery may begin soon, and the recession is bottoming out, the Conference Board said Thursday. For its fourth consecutive monthly gain, the index of leading economic indicators rose in 0.6% in July, following an upwardly revised increase of 0.8% in June. Economists polled by MarketWatch were looking for a gain of 0.7% in July.

The interest rate spread was the largest positive contributor, while a reading on consumer expectations was the largest negative contributor. Overall, six of the 10 indicators were positive contributors, three were negative, and one was steady. The six-month growth rate for the overall index hit its highest level since mid-2004, according to the Conference Board.

economic indicators

Source: Conference Board

 


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Passive Products and Active Users

 

Passive Products and Active Users

Courtesy of 

The 20 largest ETFs have $1.556 trillion in assets. While the indexes they track are passive, their users are anything but. Over the previous twelve months, the total trading volume in these products was a whopping $11.529 trillion.

A recent paper from ...



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Insider Scoop

10 Stocks To Watch For October 17, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) to report quarterly earnings at $1.13 per share on revenue of $9.70 billion before the opening bell. Morgan Stanley shares rose 0.9% to $43.19 in after-hours trading.
  • Analysts expect Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) ...


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Zero Hedge

In The Fed, We Trust?!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Part one of this article can be found HERE.

President Trump recently nominated Judy Shelton to fill an open seat on the Federal Reserve Board. She was recently quoted by the Washington Post as follows:

“(I) would lower rates as fast, as efficiently, and as expeditiously...



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The Technical Traders

Market Trend Change Triggered Today

Courtesy of Technical Traders

CLICK HERE TO GET REAL TIME TRADE ALERTS!

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Kimble Charting Solutions

High Times Going To Return For Pot Stocks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

High times for pot stocks do not come to mind when looking at this 6-pack!

On average, these stocks have declined nearly 50% since recent highs.

Are pot stocks about to experience “High Times” again?

The large declines since recent highs has each of these stocks testing support at each (1).

If the pot stocks are to move higher, these key support lines need to hold.

Out of these six stocks, ABBV is reflecting relative strength to the others, as it has been moving higher off support the past 60-days.

...

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Chart School

Review of Andrew CardWell RSI with Wyckoff price waves

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

RSI measures relative strength of price action of a set period versus prior set periods. It helps review the price swings or waves, the power of each price thrust into new ground, or lack of it. Price thrust like many things relies on energy, and energy is not a constant, it has a birth, a life and a death and relative strength helps us see that cycle. 

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Digital Currencies

Zuck Delays Libra Launch Date Due To Issues "Sensitive To Society"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Facebook is taking a much more careful approach to Libra than its previous projects, CEO Mark Zuckerberg has confirmed. 

“Obviously we want to move forward at some point soon [and] not have this take many years to roll out,” he said. “But ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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