Posts Tagged ‘leading indicator’

RADAR LOGIC: CA, A LEADING INDICATOR OF REAL ESTATE IS HEADED DOWN ALREADY

RADAR LOGIC: CA, A LEADING INDICATOR OF REAL ESTATE IS HEADED DOWN ALREADY

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Excellent commentary here from Michael Feder, chief executive officer of Radar Logic Inc. Feder says some very negative trends in housing are developing – the most worrisome of which is the deterioration in CA prices, which, according to Feder, is a leading indicator for the rest of the country: 


Tags: , , , , ,




CHINA: THE LEADING INDICATOR OF LEADING INDICATORS

CHINA: THE LEADING INDICATOR OF LEADING INDICATORS

Shanghai Jade Buddha Temple November 2006 Photo: Roger Parker

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

We’ve often referred to China as a leading indicator of equities over the last few years.  Some sell side analysts have caught onto the trend as well (which likely means it will stop working now).  CitiGroup highlights China’s emergence as the “leading indicator of leading indicators” (via FT Alphaville):

“China is the biggest emerging market in the world, currently accounting for 18.6% of the MSCI GEMs index. We have noticed how, since the end of the last bull market in 2007, the Chinese market has often seemed to reach an inflexion point before other leading global market indices. As equity markets should act as a leading indicator of broader economic growth trends, it seems, therefore, that the Chinese equity market has recently become ‘the leading indicator of the leading indicators’. Given that the local Shanghai Composite index and MSCI China have both rebounded by 13-15% from their recent lows and our China strategist, Minggao Shen, has just turned more bullish on the market1, these events are a positive mix for global emerging markets as a whole. This is, therefore, a good time to consider the Chinese market’s role as a signaling mechanism for GEMs as a whole.”

china CHINA: THE LEADING INDICATOR OF LEADING INDICATORS


Tags: , , ,




Is the Stock Market a Leading Indicator?

Is the Stock Market a Leading Indicator?

Courtesy of Mish 

Inquiring minds are pondering the question "Is the Stock Market a Leading Indicator?"

Please consider the following two charts.

S&P Monthly Chart 1980-1992

$SPX

click on chart for sharper image

Vertical bars on the chart show when recessions began. There were three recession isn this period, starting January 1980, July 1981, and July 1990 according to NBER Business Cycle Expansion and Contraction Data. The NBER is the official determinant of recessions.

Looking at a chart of the S&P it is difficult to suggest the Stock Market is a leading indicator, coincident perhaps but certainly not leading.

Moreover, the biggest decline during the period was a 35.9% drop in 1987, a period in which there was no recession. Furthermore, I circled four areas with very similar patterns in the 1980-1992 timeframe that were recessions following essentially sideways corrections in the S&P 500. Two of them were recessions, two were not.

For the 1981 recession and the 1990 recession, one could only tell there was a recession coming in hindsight. Finally the January 1980 recession vs. the S&P 500 looks like noise. The stock market actually rose at the start of the recession.

S&P Monthly Chart 1998-2009

click on chart for sharper image

There were two recessions in the 1998 – 2009 timeframe. The clearest case that the stock market is leading came in the recession that began in March 2001. However, the recession ended in November 2001 yet the stock market made a substantial new low mid-2002 with a double bottom test in Spring of 2003.

The stock market declined 34% after the recession was over. Is that a leading indicator? Of what?

For the recession that began in December 2007, the S&P 500 was down only a few percent from its all time high. Is that a leading indicator?

Clearly the answer is no. The S&P 500 was a coincident indicator for the entire recession. The NBER has not yet declared the end of the recession but it will do so and it will be backdated, most likely to Spring of 2009.

If so, the market will have proven to have been a coincident indicator, known only in hindsight.

Conclusion

The stock market is at best a coincident indicator, known only well after the fact. Furthermore, even as a coincident indicator, the


continue reading


Tags: , ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Watch: Riots Erupt In Israel As Police Enforce COVID-19 Quarantine, Synagogues Shuttered

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Israeli media is reporting that riots have broken out in Arab as well as some Jewish neighborhoods of Israel over quarantine enforcement. Particularly violent clashes in Jaffa also erupted after police confronted and tried to detain a man for reportedly breaking quarantine.

"Dozens of people are demonstrating and rioting in Jaffa after police questioning of a man who apparently broke his mandatory self-quarantine led numerous residents to gather and confront the officers," the ...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Governors take charge of response to the coronavirus

 

Governors take charge of response to the coronavirus

Washington state Gov. Jay Inslee ordered all bars, restaurants, entertainment and recreation facilities to temporarily close to fight the spread of COVID-19. Getty/Erika Schultz-Pool

Raymond Scheppach, University of Virginia

Just after every gubernatorial election, but before inaugurations, the National Governors Association organizes a two-day “New Governors School.” Current governors serve as the faculty ...



more from Ilene

Biotech/COVID-19

Governors take charge of response to the coronavirus

 

Governors take charge of response to the coronavirus

Washington state Gov. Jay Inslee ordered all bars, restaurants, entertainment and recreation facilities to temporarily close to fight the spread of COVID-19. Getty/Erika Schultz-Pool

Raymond Scheppach, University of Virginia

Just after every gubernatorial election, but before inaugurations, the National Governors Association organizes a two-day “New Governors School.” Current governors serve as the faculty ...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

ValueWalk

Number of new jobless claims hits another record high

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In an intra Day note to investors, Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman, while commenting on the weekly number of new jobless claims, said:

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The major indices are all in the green at midday despite another highly volatile pre-market session. The energy sector has been the clear winner of the morning session, but most of the key sectors are sporting gains despite the grim COVID-19 numbers. The price of crude oil surged higher overnight together with global equities, despite yesterday’s huge U.S. ...



more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P 500 Price Pattern Similar to 2008 Market Crash?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Last week’s sharp rally off the lows, gave bulls some relief.

But if the bulls are going to have reason to cheer, they will need to see another move higher… and fast!

Why? Just look at today’s “weekly” price chart of the S&P 500 Index. 

This key broad-based index broke a 10-year bull market trend line in March. And it’s now kissing the underside of the trend line at (2).

The last stock market crash saw a similar pattern in 2008. And after a failed “...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

Nestle CEO Says Snack Foods 'Just As Important As Essential Nutrients'

Courtesy of Benzinga

Global food behemoth Nestle (OTC: NSRGY) is "scrambling to meet demand" to keep the world fed, but doesn't want to take much credit, as "this is our main purpose at this hour," CEO Mark Schneider said Wednesday during a "Mad Money" interview with Jim Cramer.

Nestle...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

The Technical Traders

Are Equities Likely To Rally?

Courtesy of Technical Traders


 

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter

Chris Vermeulen

...

more from Tech. Traders

Chart School

Big moving Averages and macro investment decisions

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

When price is falling every one wonders where demand will come in.


RTT black screen Tv videos study the simplest measure of price (simple moving average). What has happen before guides us now. 














Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

more from Chart School

Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



more from Our Members

Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



more from Bitcoin

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

more from Promotions

Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



more from Lee

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.