Posts Tagged ‘legislature’

California Politicians Making Progress but “Biggest and Hardest Decisions Remain”

California Politicians Making Progress but "Biggest and Hardest Decisions Remain"

California Governor Arnold SchwarzeneggerCourtesy of Mish

There is still no breakthrough as California Politicians Negotiate to Close Deficit.

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders negotiated through the weekend, making progress while reporting no breakthrough in solving the state’s $26 billion budget deficit that’s left the most-populous U.S. state issuing IOUs to its creditors.

The meetings, held July 11 and yesterday in Schwarzenegger’s Sacramento office, failed to produce a consensus on how to slash government spending to compensate for a drop in revenue brought on by the faltering economy. Democratic legislative leaders said they were optimistic after talks broke down last week.

“We have several more days to go,” Democratic Assembly leader Karen Bass told reporters during a break in the meetings yesterday. “What I think is most important is that talks have not broken down.”

California this month began issuing IOUs to pay some of its bills, a step taken only one other time since the Great Depression, because of political stalemate over a gap in the $100 billion annual budget.

Schwarzenegger, a Republican, has repeatedly said he won’t endorse another round of tax increases. Instead, he’s proposed deep cuts to spending on schools, health insurance programs and welfare, and sought to link the passage of the budget to measures he says would crack down on fraudulent claims for state aid. Democrats have bristled at the scale of the cuts, saying they would deal a blow to residents already reeling from the economic recession.

decisionsAssembly Republican leader Sam Blakeslee, who represents San Luis Obispo, said the negotiations have yet to deliver agreement on the magnitude of cuts needed.

Nor have they dealt with Schwarzenegger’s proposal to suspend a voter-approved law that guarantees minimum funding levels for public schools, he said. That suggestion has drawn fire from the California Teachers Association, which represents more than 340,000 school employees.

“It’s premature to declare victory,” Blakeslee told reporters. “The biggest and hardest decisions are before us.”

Unless and until California addresses the problems of bloated unneeded programs, union pay scales, and particularly the issues of pensions and benefits, the legislature will have solved nothing. Now is the chance to address those issues but the safe bet is that legislators will once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by postponing hard decisions on the real issues.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
 


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Showdown in California: Schwarzenegger vs. Democrats

Showdown in California: Schwarzenegger vs. Democrats

Courtesy of Mish
 
The showdown is on in California between the Democrat controlled legislature and governor Schwarzenegger. The battle shapes up like this: Democrats do not understand basic math and Schwarzenegger is not giving in. The end result is California seen missing budget deadline again.

Barring a miracle, California lawmakers will miss their June 15 deadline for passing a balanced budget — a staggering challenge with the state facing a $24.3 billion shortfall amid the worst drop in state revenues since the Great Depression.

Observers of the most populous U.S. state’s political scene laugh at the idea of a budget deal by Monday.

"It’s about as likely as me being named MVP of the Stanley Cup final," said Dan Schnur, director of the Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California.

Citing the state’s weak economy and double-digit unemployment rate, the movie star-turned politician has ruled out new taxes, which has raised his standing with the legislature’s unruly and anti-tax Republican minority.

Schwarzenegger also urged Democrats to ignore lobbying by their union allies against sharply lower spending levels to help balance the state’s books.

"Do they want to protect the workers that provide the services, or do they want to protect the people that get those services? The choice is up to them," he said.

His blunt talk came as the Service Employees International Union launched an advertising campaign against his budget plan, a threat to many of its 700,000 members in the state.

State Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg has said spending cuts are inevitable, but he opposes Schwarzenegger’s plan for scrapping state programs. Instead, he wants to tap reserves in the governor’s plan to maintain the programs.

Understanding Negative Numbers

Tapping "reserves" is idiotic because California has negative reserves of $24 billion. Do the Democrats or the unions understand the concept of negative numbers?

Unfortunately the answer is a resounding "No". Some might think this is a reason to keep the education budget intact. However, the odds that the legislature or unions sign up for much needed remedial math education classes is zero. Therefore, saving taxpayer money must take precedence over spending that will not go to where it is most needed.

Schwarzenegger Threatens To Shut Down Government

If a deal


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Phil's Favorites

The Hardest Problem in Finance

 

The Hardest Problem in Finance

Courtesy of 

It took a little while to dig myself out of one of the deepest rabbit holes in all of finance, retirement spending strategies. William Sharpe calls it “the nastiest hardest problem in finance.”

Retirement, specifically early retirement, has been a hot topic lately, thanks to the FIRE [financial independence/retire early] movement and one of its biggest proponents, ...



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Zero Hedge

Deutsche Bank Raises Odds That UK Government Will Collapse

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Shortly before the first headlines claiming that the conservatives' 1922 Committee had finally reached the 48-letter threshold to call a no confidence vote in Theresa May hit the tape, Deutsche Bank analysts published an extremely timely update to its projected Brexit outcome odds that featured a decidedly bearish tilt.

In the wake of last week's historic contempt vote that forced May to publish the damaging attorne...



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Biotech

Those designer babies everyone is freaking out about - it's not likely to happen

Reminder: We're available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Those designer babies everyone is freaking out about – it's not likely to happen

Babies to order. Andrew crotty/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy A Cecile JW Janssens, Emory University

When Adam Nash was still an embryo, living in a dish in the lab, scientists tested his DNA to make sure it was free of ...



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Members' Corner

Blue Wave with Cheri Jacobus (Q&A II, Updated)

By Ilene at Phil's Stock World

Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shares her thoughts on the political landscape with us in a follow up to our August interview.

Updated 12-10-18

Ilene: What do you think about Michael Cohen's claim that the Trump Organization's discussions with high-level Russian officials about a deal for Trump Tower Moscow continued into June 2016?

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bear Market Omen? The 'Average Stock' Is Breaking Down

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The stock market has been in a corrective sideways move for the better part of 2018. Is it ready to decline even lower?

Well if the “average stock” is any indication, then investors should be concerned.

The “monthly” chart below is of the Value Line Geometric Index (INDEXNYSEGIS: VALUG), which plots the price of an average stock in today’s market. We can see that a bearish wedge pattern has developed in a similar fashion to 2007 and 1999.

It’s notable that in each of the past two breakdowns (1) and (2), the price broke below wedge support and its 10-month moving average.

It appears to be doing the same thing today. Careful here!

Value Line Geometric Chart – Bearish Wedges

...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Surge Ahead Of Producer Price Index

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related SPY A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Signal Lower Start On Wall Street Assessing This Week's Technical Damage To...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

How low will Bitcoin now go? The history of price bubbles provides some clues

 

How low will Bitcoin now go? The history of price bubbles provides some clues

The Bitcoin bubble is perhaps the most extreme speculative bubble since the late 19th century. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Lee Smales, University of Western Australia

Nearly 170 years before the invention of Bitcoin, the journalist Charles Mackay noted the way whole communities could “fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit”. Millions of people, he wrote, “become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first”.

His book ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Dec 09, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Bears are certainly showing the type of strength we haven’t seen in a long time.   A week ago at this time futures were surging on news of a “truce” for 90 days between China and the U.S. in their trade spat.  But the charts were still not saying lovely things despite a major rally the week prior.   And by Tuesday, darkness had descended back on the indexes, with another gut punch Friday.    A lot of emphasis was put on a long term Treasury yield dropping below a shorter term Treasury.

On Monday, the yield on five year government debt slid below the yield on three year debt, a phenomenon which has p...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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