Posts Tagged ‘liquidity’

John Hussman On Our Fed-Inspired Bubble,

John Hussman On Our Fed-Inspired Bubble, Crash, Bubble, Crash, Bubble (etc) Reality

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

financial bubbles

Written by John Hussman of Hussman Funds

Bubble, Crash, Bubble, Crash, Bubble…

"Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate the most recent action. Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance. Lower corporate bond rates will encourage investment. And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion."

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Washington Post 11/4/2010

Last week, the Federal Reserve confirmed its intention to engage in a second round of "quantitative easing" – purchasing about $600 billion of U.S. Treasury debt over the coming months, in addition to about $250 billion that it already planned to purchase to replace various Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities as they mature.

While the announcement of QE2 itself was met with a rather mixed market reaction on Wednesday, the markets launched into a speculative rampage in response to an Op-Ed piece by Bernanke that was published Thursday morning in the Washington Post. In it, Bernanke suggested that QE2 would help the economy essentially by propping up the stock market, corporate bonds, and other types of risky securities, resulting in a "virtuous circle" of economic activity. Conspicuously absent was any suggestion that the banking system was even an object of the Fed’s policy at all. Indeed, Bernanke observed "Our earlier use of this policy approach had little effect on the amount of currency in circulation or on other broad measures of the money supply, such as bank deposits."

Given that interest rates are already quite depressed, Bernanke seems to be grasping at straws in justifying QE2 on the basis further slight reductions in yields. As for Bernanke’s case for creating wealth effects via the stock market, one might look at this logic and conclude that while it may or may not be valid, the argument is at least the subject of reasonable debate. But that would not be true. Rather, these are undoubtedly among the most ignorant…
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Inflation Targeting Proposal an Exercise in Blazing Stupidity; Fed Fools Itself

Inflation Targeting Proposal an Exercise in Blazing Stupidity; Fed Fools Itself

Courtesy of Mish

Wrong animal, damn!

Lower interest rates are not typically synonymous with rising inflation, but Bernanke foolishly thinks he can get that magic pair with the power of persuasion in conjunction with Quantitative Easing.

Please consider Fed Considers Raising Inflation Expectations to Boost Economy

Federal Reserve policy makers may want Americans to expect inflation to accelerate in the future so they spend more of their money now.

Central bankers, seeking ways to boost flagging growth after lowering interest rates almost to zero and buying $1.7 trillion of securities, are weighing strategies for raising inflation expectations as well as expanding the balance sheet by purchasing Treasuries, according to minutes of the Fed’s Sept. 21 meeting released yesterday.

Some Fed officials are concerned that expectations of lower inflation will become self-fulfilling, damping demand by increasing borrowing costs in real terms, the minutes said. By encouraging Americans to believe prices will start rising at a faster pace, the Fed would reduce inflation-adjusted interest rates and stimulate the economy. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in 2003 that Japan could beat deflation by using a “publicly announced, gradually rising price-level target.”

“The Fed is on the verge of actively targeting a higher inflation rate,” said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. U.S. stocks advanced, sending benchmark indexes to five-month highs, the dollar fell and gold declined for the first time in three days after the minutes were released.

Trying to raise inflation expectations is untested in the U.S. The policy may backfire if actual inflation drifts higher than the Fed would like, potentially eroding gains won in the early 1980s by former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who raised interest rates as high as 20 percent to subdue prices.

Jim O’Sullivan, global chief economist at MF Global Ltd. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview that the biggest risk is “boosting long-term inflation expectations more than they lower real interest rates.”

The FOMC could adopt a combination of inflation targeting and price-level targeting to get inflation expectations up, said Mark Gertler, a New York University economist and research co-author with Bernanke.

The Fed could restate its commitment to keep inflation rising annually at around 1.7 percent to 2 percent. At the same time, the FOMC could announce some


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THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK

THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Young woman writing on a sheet of paper and thinking Model Release: Yes Property Release: NA

1) What have you done for me lately?

Should we blame the political system for the downfall of Wall Street?  Wall Street has increasingly become a place of “what have you done for me lately”.  The advent of the day trader and the hedge fund simply represent this incredible shift towards short-term thinking.  Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street has evolved into “Mad Money” and “Fast Money”.  But where does this change in psychology come from?  Is it the politicians who are running for re-election seemingly every day?  Is it simply the information age and a case of wanting everything sooner rather than later?  I don’t know.  But politically, this is a disastrous change.  How can we get back on track towards a sustainable recovery when every policy measure we implement appears to be an attempt to fix some short-term problem that just happens to coincide with an election?  I can handle the advent of the short-term trader (in fact I prefer it), but no one in Congress thinks of the long-term anymore and that’s a scary fact.

2) The one thing that jumps out at me

“What’s the one thing that most jumps out at you over the last few years?”  That’s what someone asked me a few days ago.  The one thing that has really jumped out at me in recent years is the overnight futures markets.  I like to trade illiquid markets.  It’s why I stay up late and why I get up early.   An illiquid market brings out the weakness in people.  It makes their trigger finger itchy.  It makes them scared.  If you’ve never traded a 3%+ spread then you’ve never traded.  I’d say that it puts hair on your chest, but it does more than that.  You can lose a mountain of money being on the wrong side of a collapsing market with only a few participants.  The bids often fall off the board in these situations – just like they did on the day of the flash crash.  It’s a hopeless feeling.  I’ve been that guy before.  But I’ve always learned more from the losses than the wins.

In recent years those spreads have closed (at least it feels like they have – perhaps it’s just more volatile and a bit more liquid).  It is similar to the way it was back…
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Why Nobody Trades During Regular Hours Any More (And How Prop Funds Just Stop Trading When Volatility Spikes)

Why Nobody Trades During Regular Hours Any More (And How Prop Funds Just Stop Trading When Volatility Spikes)

HFTCourtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge 

For those who follow our periodic updates on intraday stock volume, today’s article by the Wall Street Journal which focuses on the dramatic decline in activity during regular working hours will come as no surprise. In a piece looking at prop trading shop Briargate (oh so witty anagram of arbitrage), founded by several former NYSE specialists, we learn that at least one firm (and likely many more) now no longer does any trading during the hours of 11 to 2. As this creates a feedback loop of inactivity, pretty soon the core of daily stock market activity will merely be the half an hour of action at the open, and the dark pool-ETF-open exchange rebalance at the very close, with everything inbetween deemed obsolete.

Of course, what this will do, is create even more volatility in trading, force an even greater decline in stock trading volumes (and pain for Wall Street firms), and a further divergence between stocks and fundamentals, as momentum trading gains an even more prominent role in determine "price discovery."

From the WSJ:

On the day the "flash crash" bludgeoned the stock market and chaos swept over the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, the founders of Briargate Trading were at the movies.

Rick Oscher and Steven Rubinstein weren’t playing hooky. Briargate, a proprietary-trading firm that the two former NYSE floor "specialist" traders started in 2008, is mostly active at the stock market’s open and close.

In between, when market activity typically drops, the Wall Street veterans play tennis in Central Park, take leisurely lunches, visit their children’s schools and work out at the gym. Dress shoes have been replaced with flip-flops, slacks with cargo shorts. Once during market hours, they walked about five miles and crossed the Brooklyn Bridge to try Grimaldi’s pizza.

"We actually planned on working a full day," says Mr. Oscher, wearing a white polo shirt and blue-plaid shorts. "But from 11 to 2, the markets are pretty quiet—what’s the point? As a specialist, you have to stand in your spot all day and we did that for 20 years."

Briargate—an anagram of "arbitrage"—isn’t the only firm taking an extended recess during the 6½-hour U.S. trading day. Trading has become increasingly concentrated in the


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Can You Hear Me Now? 17th Weekly Fund Outflow As Equity Fund Redemptions Accelerate

Can You Hear Me Now? 17th Weekly Fund Outflow As Equity Fund Redemptions Accelerate

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge 

This is just getting silly: perhaps the next update on ICI mutual fund flows should occur if there is an inflow for once…ever again. In the meantime, ICI reports we have just recorded the 17th consecutive weekly outflow from domestic equity mutual funds, and what’s worse for mutual funds’ depleted liquidity ratios, it is now accelerating, hitting a total of $4.3 billion, a more than 50% increase from last week’s $2.7 billion. YTD outflows have now hit $54 billion, as ever more capital is going into far safer fixed income instruments. As a reminder, here is what Rosenberg said on the issue yesterday: "As for liquidity ratios, equity funds portfolio manages have theirs at an all-time low of 3.4%, down from 3.8% in June. Tack on the fact that there are really not very many shorts to be covered – since the market peaked in April, short interest is 4.3% of the S&P 500 market cap (in August 2008 it was 6%) and there’s not a whole lot of underlying fund-flow support for the stock market here." As for this being a contrarian signal, hopefully all those who see this as a buying opportunity can also find a way to make the now retiring baby boomers about 10 years younger and force them away from fixed income capital reallocation. Oh, and fix the broken market and restore investor confidence that the casino is only modestly rigged.

In the meantime, no matter what the market does (and somehow it has been flat during the entire period of record redemptions: good to know someone is putting capital into stocks), on a short-term basis, nobody wants to touch it with a ten foot pole. Retail is no longer fascinated by speculating and day trading: after all why should they – they get better odds in Vegas… where the decor puts the aging CNBC female anchor crew to shame.


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Bring Out Your Dead

Portfolio house keeping – time to say goodbye to mistakes, rebalance what’s left and raise cash? – Ilene 

Bring Out Your Dead

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

unemployment

A slightly better than expected reading on weekly Jobless Claims has the market feeling bouncy this morning.  We also just got AAII sentiment numbers that are as negative as you get (20% bulls, 49% bears!).

Combine these two data points and a Dow that just barely managed to keep itself above the 10,000 level yesterday and you have the recipe for a nice bounce.

I’m planning to use it.  I’m planning on bringing out my dead for the cart man to carry away.

Sunlight is the greatest disinfectant known to man, so with this morning’s early rays of sunshine I will cleanse the house that is my long book.  I’ll be scouring my portfolios searching for the stocks that have become corpses during the correction’s long night.

This is not because I don’t believe that the bounce could be sustainable (I’m willing to give it the benefit of the doubt for now).  Rather, my expulsion of these stock market casualties has more to do with my desire for liquidity and my wish to be rid of that awful stench of death.

When the cart comes by, I’ll be heaping it with the bodies of a few nat gas stories that are going nowhere, a huge retailer that seems to have no bottom and a financial name or two.

I don’t give specific financial advice here on this site, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt to use this opportunity to accept some of the mistakes of the summer and prepare your portfolio for the fall.

Bring out your dead.

Weekly jobless claims fall 31,000 to 473,000 (MarketWatch) 


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16th Sequential Equity Fund Outflow Takes Total To Over $50 Billion YTD; Retail Boycott Of Stocks Continues

16th Sequential Equity Fund Outflow Takes Total To Over $50 Billion YTD; Retail Boycott Of Stocks Continues

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The latest anticipated weekly outflow from equity mutual funds just hit a one month high of $2.7 billion, as reported by ICI, and with that, YTD redemptions by equity investors have hit over $50 billion. Domestic equity mutual funds have not seen a net positive retail inflow since April 28, yet despite this the market has been substantially rangebound and until last week. What is notable is that even during times of relative stock outperformance, courtesy of whoever it is that is left buying stocks, be it HFT algos, or Primary Dealers pumped with cheap Fed liquidity (and don’t forget today is another "free $2 billion courtesy of POMO" day), the investing public refuses to be drawn into owning stocks. CNBC has now failed to sucker its viewers into the stock ponzi for 16 weeks in a row and rising. The clear capital rotation winner- the bond bubble, but that is the topic for another week.

 


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The Low-Interest-Rate Trap

The Low-Interest-Rate Trap

Courtesy of John Rubino of Dollar Collapse 

Cannon Beach, Oregon, USA

Pretend for a second that you recently retired with a decent amount of money in the bank, and all you have to do is generate a paltry 5% to live in comfort for the rest of your days. But lately that’s been easier said than done. Your money market fund yields less than 1%. Your bond funds are around 3% and your bank CDs are are down to half the rate of a couple of years ago. Stocks, meanwhile, are down over the past decade and way too volatile in any event. If you don’t find a way to generate that 5% you’ll have to start eating into capital, which screws up your plan, possibly leaving you with more life than money a decade hence.

Now pretend that you’re running a multi-billion dollar pension fund. You’ve promised the trustees a 7% return and they’ve calibrated contributions and payouts accordingly. But nothing in the investment-grade realm gets you anywhere near 7%. If you come up short, the plan’s recipients won’t get paid in a decade or – the ultimate horror – you’ll have to ask the folks paying in to contribute more, which means you’ll probably be scapegoated out of a job.

In either case, what do you do? Apparently you start buying junk bonds. According to Saturday’s Wall Street Journal, junk issuance is soaring as desperate investors snap up whatever paper promises to get them the yield they’ve come to depend on. Here’s an excerpt:

‘Junk’ Bonds Hit Record

U.S. companies issued risky “junk” bonds at a record clip this week, taking advantage of keen investor appetite for returns amid declining interest rates and tepid stock markets.

The borrowing binge comes as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates near zero and yields on U.S. government debt are near record lows. Those low rates have spread across a variety of markets, making it cheaper for companies with low credit ratings to borrow from investors.

Corporate borrowers with less than investment-grade ratings sold $15.4 billion in junk bonds this week, a record total for a single week, according to data provider Dealogic. The month-to-date total, $21.1 billion, is especially high for August, typically a quiet month that has seen an average of just $6.5 billion in issuance over the past decade.

For the year, the volume of U.S.


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11th Sequential (& Massive) Equity Outflow Reignites Speculation Market Terminally Broken

11th Sequential (And Massive) Equity Outflow Reignites Speculation Market Terminally Broken

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge 

ICI reports that the week ended July 14 saw another massive outflow from domestic equity mutual funds of $3.2 billion, bringing the July total to $7.3 billion, and year-to-date equity outflows to a stunning $37.5 billion. Yet neither liquidations, nor redemptions, nor mutual fund capitulation, nor lack of liquidity, nor lack of human traders, nor rumors that it is all one big scam, can tame the market’s most recent bout of irrational exuberance: in a time when equity funds had to redeem over $7 billion in stocks, the stock market surged by 90 points!

Just like last week, despite huge order blocks of selling pressure, the fact that volume is so light and liquidity so tight, the market succeeds in ramping ever higher, now that the few remaining carbon-based market participants have reverse engineered the key algo "predictive" frontrunning mechanisms, and manage to fool them that there is bid side interest, into which all domestic equity mutual funds manage to sell en masse. Soon enough there will be little left to sell, which will, paradoxically cause a much overdue market crash. (It is a bizarro market for a reason). And even as equity mutual funds are running on fumes (explains Bill Miller’s call of desperation yesterday), all the money in the world continues to rush into credit funds: the past week saw inflows into every single bond category, with a total of $5.8 billion going into all taxable bond funds. We are gratified that behind the fake equity facade of "alliswellishness", everyone is pulling their money out of stocks with an increased sense of urgency. Retail has had it with this pathetic shitshow of a market: the computer can front run each other for all anyone cares. We are fairly confident that the Obama administration will not have a soft spot in its heart to bail out the quant community… unless, of course, Rahm Emanuel discovers some way to unionize algorithms and give them voting rights.


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ECB Shuts off Liquidity, Spanish Banks Scream Murder; Spain and Greece Will Both Default

ECB Shuts off Liquidity, Spanish Banks Scream Murder; Spain and Greece Will Both Default

Courtesy of Mish 

For just under a year, the ECB has offered €442 billion to encourage lending. Instead, and easily predictable, the program did not increase lending and did nothing more than allow weak banks to roll over debts.

The program is now ending and Spanish banks are screaming about the ECB’s "obligation to supply liquidity".

The Wall Street Journal has part of the story in ECB Walks a Fine Line Siphoning Off Its Liquidity.

The European Central Bank is scrambling to reassure markets that Thursday’s expiration of a €442 billion ($547.46 billion) bank-lending program won’t destabilize the financial system, even as banks across the region remain wary of lending to one another.

The ECB introduced the 12-month lending facility last summer to encourage private-sector lending and ensure adequate liquidity within the 16-member currency bloc. Since then, the program, which represents more than half the ECB’s liquidity operations, has become a lifeline to banks in Greece, Spain and other countries hit by the region’s debt crisis.

The cost of borrowing euros in the interbank market rose to an eight-month high Monday, as banks prepared for the one-year loan’s expiration. The euro slid on worries that repayment will expose Europe’s financial system to new threats. Yields on German bunds, seen as a haven, fell.

Some investors worry that vulnerable euro-area banks, unable to borrow in the interbank market, could have difficulty replacing that funding, despite repeated assurances from the ECB that it will provide funds on similar terms, albeit for only three months, beginning Wednesday.

"We are confident that this very large financial transaction can take place without disruptions," ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said Friday.

Spanish Banks Whine About the "Obligation" to Supply Liquidity

The Financial Time reports Spanish banks rage at end of ECB offer.

Spanish banks have been lobbying the European Central Bank to act to ease the systemic fallout from the expiry of a €442bn ($542bn) funding programme this week, accusing the central bank of “absurd” behaviour in not renewing the scheme.

One senior bank executive said: “Any central bank has to have the obligation to supply liquidity. But this is not the policy of the ECB. We are fighting them every day on this. It’s absurd.”

Another top director said: “The ECB’s policy is that they


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Zero Hedge

United Airlines Sinks After Warning 36,000 Jobs At Risk

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

It's commonly known the travel and tourism industry has been devastated by the virus-induced recession, but recent headlines from the Trump administration, touting a V-shaped recovery, mask the true nature of the downturn. 

As we find out on Wednesday morning (as per a new Yahoo Finance report) - United Airlines Holdings has indicated it might be forced to layoff 36,000 workers, or 45% of its workforce, as passenger demand is expected to remain weak i...



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Phil's Favorites

"Just because you're buying stock, doesn't mean you're an investor"

 

“Just because you’re buying stock, doesn’t mean you’re an investor”

Courtesy of 

Josh here – in the mid 1960’s, investors decided that there was a group of fifty growth stocks whose outlook was so bright that it didn’t matter what price you paid for them, as long as you were buying. By the early 70’s, they were learning a critical lesson about starting valuation – McDonalds, Coke and Procter & Gamble did indeed have a very bright future, but that didn’t prevent them from being cut in half. Investors in these names would have ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

5 COVID-19 myths politicians have repeated that just aren't true

 

5 COVID-19 myths politicians have repeated that just aren't true

The purveyors of these myths aren’t doing the country any favors. Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Courtesy of Geoffrey Joyce, University of Southern California

The number of new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. has jumped to around 50,000 a day, and the virus has killed more than 130,000 Americans. Yet, I still hear myths about the infection that has created the worst public health crisis in A...



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ValueWalk

100 Days Since The Roll Back Of Fuel Efficiency Standards

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

“100 Days Since…” Trump Rolled Back Fuel Efficiency Standards While Public Health, Economic Fallout Accelerated

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Rollback Of Fuel Efficiency Standards

WASHINGTON, D.C. – One hundred days ago today, the Trump administration finalized its rollback of fuel efficiency standards — a s...



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The Technical Traders

Credit/Investments Turned Into End-User Risk Again

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Continuing our research from Part I, into what to expect in Q2 and Q3 of 2020, we’ll start by discussing our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system and our belief that the US stock market is rallied beyond proper expectation levels.  The Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) modeling systems attempts to identify price and technical indicator DNA markers and attempts to map our these...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Here's Why QQQ and Large Cap Tech Stocks May Rally Another 10%!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The long-term trend for large-cap tech stocks remains strongly in place.

And despite the steep rally out of the March lows, the index may be headed 10 percent higher.

Today’s chart highlights the $QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF on a “monthly” basis. As you can see, the large-cap tech index touched its lower up-trend channel support in March at (1) before reversing higher.

It may now be targeting the top of the trend channel at (2), which also marks the 261.8 Fibonacci extension (based on 2000 highs and 2002 lows). That Fib level is $290 on $QQQ.

If so, this upside target for $QQQ is still 10% above current prices. Stay tuned!

This article was first written ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 14 March 2020, 05:51:16 PM

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Comment: Crash in perspective - its Bad, and not over!



Date Found: Saturday, 14 March 2020, 07:49:29 PM

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Comment: The Blood Bath Has Begun youtu.be/bmC8k1qmM0s



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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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