Posts Tagged ‘lost jobs’

Howard Davidowitz Being Howard Davidowitz (Videos): Yahoo Tech Ticker December 2009

Howard Davidowitz Being Howard Davidowitz (Videos): Yahoo Tech Ticker December 2009

Courtesy of Trader Mark at Fund My Mutual Fund

We’ve been observing Howard Davidowitz for about 2 years now, and he is quite possibly (aside from Marc Faber) one of the most flamboyant speakers in the financial universe.  Agree, or disagree – he is a hoot to simply listen to.

2009

2008

While he is a retail analyst by trade, he talks the big picture and seems to have a lot better grasp on economic issues than the majority of the celebrated pundits.  That said, everything he is saying is being completely dismissed by the tsunami of paper dollars central banks are printing, and the "buy buy buy" punditry is back looking like "genius".  I thought there would be a disassociation between economics and market but wow, never in my wildest dreams did I think 9 straight months up… with no one fearing this won’t just be the 10th.  [April 3, 2009: The Current (and Coming) Disassociation Between Wall Street and Main Street]. 

At this point I am just viewing the market as a federally subsidized gambling parlor ("gambling for dummies" since all you need to watch is 1 entity, the US dollar) with free chips handed out by Ben Bernanke daily… very little to do with much of the real world anymore.

Anyhow…

We have 3 videos (about 4-6 minutes) each from Davidowitz below via Yahoo Tech Ticker; I believe he gets more agitated in each iteration.  Then again, Howard’s statis level seems to be "agitated". :)

(1) What Recovery? US Consumers Getting "Dramatically Worse"


According to the National Retail Federation, retail sales over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend were $41.2 billion, up slightly from a year ago, while about 195 million consumers shopped, up from 172 million last year.

Meanwhile, Coremetrics says the average online shopper spent 35% more on Black Friday vs. a year ago, while robust sales were predicted for Cyber


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Decade of Lost Jobs

Decade of Lost Jobs

Courtesy of Mish

Before taking a look at the worst 10-year job growth record since the Great Depression, let’s take a look at the unexpected rise in weekly unemployment claims.

Please consider the Department of Labor Weekly Claims Report.

Seasonally Adjusted Data

In the week ending June 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 627,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 612,000. The 4-week moving average was 617,250, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average of 616,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 5.0 percent for the week ending June 13, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 5.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 13 was 6,738,000, an increase of 29,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 6,709,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,759,750, a decrease of 3,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 6,763,000.

Weekly Claims

click on chart for sharper image

For eight weeks I have been saying the dip in initial claims from the March peak of roughly 650,000 is not accelerating very fast, if indeed at all.

In three months the 4-week moving average of initial claims has gained roughly 35,000 jobs. For the sake of argument let’s call it 15,000 jobs per month. At that rate it will take another 4 months just to get to where we were a year ago and those were God awful numbers at 381,500 claims a week.

Of course things might speed up significantly, then again I was reasonably generous with the initial rate of improvement. Moreover, A drop in initial claims will mean that corporate firings have stabilized, it will not mean that significant hiring is underway.

However you slice things the employment situation remains grim.

Horrifying Job Statistics

Michael Mandel of BusinessWeek is writing about a Lost Decade For Jobs.

Private sector job growth was almost non-existent over the past ten years. Take a look at this horrifying chart:

10-year job growth vanishes

Between May 1999 and May 2009, employment in the private sector sector only rose by 1.1%, by far the lowest 10-year increase in the post-depression period.

It’s impossible to overstate how bad this is. Basically speaking, the private sector job machine has almost completely stalled over the


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Zero Hedge

Largest Chinese Naval Drill "In 600 Years" Begins: Live-Fire Exercise In Taiwan Strait

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last week, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) assembled all of its most advanced warships, aircraft, and nuclear submarines for a massive show of force in the South China Sea. We explained, how the 3-day war drill from April 10 through 13 would be held in the waters south of China’s Hainan Island.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Our Strange Attraction To Self-Destructive Behaviors, Choices, & Incentives

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds

The gravitational pull of self-destructive behaviors, choices and incentives is scale-invariant, meaning that we can discern the strange attraction to self-destruction in the entire scale of human experience, from individuals to families to groups to entire societies.

The proliferation of self-destructive behaviors, choices and incentives in our socio-economic system is profoundly troubling. Exhibit 1 is the opioid epidemic (chart below). How did we reach this level of individual and social self-destruction?

There are culprits aplenty: a "healthcare" (sickcare) system that incentivizes maximizing profits by whatever means are available (for example, claiming addictive medications aren't addictive); a system that encourages the consumption of c...



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Insider Scoop

M&T Bank Shares Deserve A Premium Valuation: Baird

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related MTB Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For April 18, 2018 6 Stocks To Watch For April 16, 2018 Healthy Spreads And Efficiency Driving M&T Bank (Seeking Alpha)

With ...



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Chart School

Short Opportunity Negated

Courtesy of Declan

Well, that didn't last long.

The shorting opportunities which offered themselves yesterday didn't last the morning; morning gaps held beyond the first half-hour of trading and bar a small sell-off into the close markets finished higher and above key moving averages and trading channels.

The Dow created a breakout which now offers a potential long play. Stops go on a loss of 24,600. Technicals finished with a new long 'buy' trigger in Stochastics.
 


The S&P finished above the 3-week ...



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Digital Currencies

Only 0.04% Of Taxpayers Are Reporting Any Bitcoin Gains To The IRS

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

With the US tax deadline just one day away, crypto investors who traded actively during the market's run-up and inevitable meltdown should have a lot of activity to report to the IRS.

But according to a survey conducted by Credit Karma, only a handful of people who have filed their taxes using Credit Karma's tools have reported bitcoin holdings or holdings of some other cryptocurrency - fewer than 100 out of a total of 250,000 filers, or a whopping 0.04% in total.

In all likelihood, this means that (tens of) thousands of bitcoin traders are refusing to pay the IRS, either betting on the anonymity of the blockchain to conceal th...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Biotech

How your brain is wired to just say 'yes' to opioids

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida

...

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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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