Posts Tagged ‘lost jobs’

Howard Davidowitz Being Howard Davidowitz (Videos): Yahoo Tech Ticker December 2009

Howard Davidowitz Being Howard Davidowitz (Videos): Yahoo Tech Ticker December 2009

Courtesy of Trader Mark at Fund My Mutual Fund

We’ve been observing Howard Davidowitz for about 2 years now, and he is quite possibly (aside from Marc Faber) one of the most flamboyant speakers in the financial universe.  Agree, or disagree – he is a hoot to simply listen to.

2009

2008

While he is a retail analyst by trade, he talks the big picture and seems to have a lot better grasp on economic issues than the majority of the celebrated pundits.  That said, everything he is saying is being completely dismissed by the tsunami of paper dollars central banks are printing, and the "buy buy buy" punditry is back looking like "genius".  I thought there would be a disassociation between economics and market but wow, never in my wildest dreams did I think 9 straight months up… with no one fearing this won’t just be the 10th.  [April 3, 2009: The Current (and Coming) Disassociation Between Wall Street and Main Street]. 

At this point I am just viewing the market as a federally subsidized gambling parlor ("gambling for dummies" since all you need to watch is 1 entity, the US dollar) with free chips handed out by Ben Bernanke daily… very little to do with much of the real world anymore.

Anyhow…

We have 3 videos (about 4-6 minutes) each from Davidowitz below via Yahoo Tech Ticker; I believe he gets more agitated in each iteration.  Then again, Howard’s statis level seems to be "agitated". :)

(1) What Recovery? US Consumers Getting "Dramatically Worse"


According to the National Retail Federation, retail sales over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend were $41.2 billion, up slightly from a year ago, while about 195 million consumers shopped, up from 172 million last year.

Meanwhile, Coremetrics says the average online shopper spent 35% more on Black Friday vs. a year ago, while robust sales were predicted for Cyber


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Decade of Lost Jobs

Decade of Lost Jobs

Courtesy of Mish

Before taking a look at the worst 10-year job growth record since the Great Depression, let’s take a look at the unexpected rise in weekly unemployment claims.

Please consider the Department of Labor Weekly Claims Report.

Seasonally Adjusted Data

In the week ending June 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 627,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 612,000. The 4-week moving average was 617,250, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average of 616,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 5.0 percent for the week ending June 13, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 5.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 13 was 6,738,000, an increase of 29,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 6,709,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,759,750, a decrease of 3,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 6,763,000.

Weekly Claims

click on chart for sharper image

For eight weeks I have been saying the dip in initial claims from the March peak of roughly 650,000 is not accelerating very fast, if indeed at all.

In three months the 4-week moving average of initial claims has gained roughly 35,000 jobs. For the sake of argument let’s call it 15,000 jobs per month. At that rate it will take another 4 months just to get to where we were a year ago and those were God awful numbers at 381,500 claims a week.

Of course things might speed up significantly, then again I was reasonably generous with the initial rate of improvement. Moreover, A drop in initial claims will mean that corporate firings have stabilized, it will not mean that significant hiring is underway.

However you slice things the employment situation remains grim.

Horrifying Job Statistics

Michael Mandel of BusinessWeek is writing about a Lost Decade For Jobs.

Private sector job growth was almost non-existent over the past ten years. Take a look at this horrifying chart:

10-year job growth vanishes

Between May 1999 and May 2009, employment in the private sector sector only rose by 1.1%, by far the lowest 10-year increase in the post-depression period.

It’s impossible to overstate how bad this is. Basically speaking, the private sector job machine has almost completely stalled over the


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Phil's Favorites

Why governments are so bad at implementing public projects

 

Why governments are so bad at implementing public projects

Around the world, government officials fail often at implementing policy and public sector projects. Here’s why. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Andrew Graham, Queen's University, Ontario

As Canada’s federal government starts looking for a replacement for its failed payroll system and the Ontario provincial government launches yet another major shake-up of its health-care system, it’s ...



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Zero Hedge

IMF Discreetly Preps Massive Aid Package For "Day After" Maduro's Fall

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The International Monetary Fund is reportedly making plans for the "day after" embattled President Nicolas Maduro's fall, according to Bloomberg. Though there's been little momentum in military defections following US-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido's offer of amnesty to any army officer that switches loyalties, Washington sanctions have effectively strangled state-owned PDVSA's access to global markets. News of IMF maneuvering also comes amidst fresh reports the US is amassing aircraft, troops and armored vehicles on the Venezuelan border under the pretext ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gasoline bullish breakout could fuel higher prices, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are we about to pay much higher prices at the gas pump? Possible!

This chart looks at Gasoline futures over the past 4-years. Gasoline has become much cheaper at the pump, as it fell nearly 50% from the May 2018 highs. The decline took it down to test 2016 & 2017 lows at (1). While testing these lows, Gasoline could be forming a bullish inverse head & shoulders pattern over the past few months.

Joe Friday Just The Facts- If Gasoline breaks out at (2), we could all see higher prices at the gas pump. If a breakout does...



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Insider Scoop

10 Stocks To Watch For February 15, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects PepsiCo, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) to report quarterly earnings at $1.49 per share on revenue of $19.52 billion before the opening bell. PepsiCo shares rose 0.2 percent to $112.82 in after-hours trading.
  • NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported upbe...


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ValueWalk

Global Quality Edge Fund: Tail-Risk Hedging Strategy

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Global Quality Edge Fund presentation titled, “Tail-Risk Hedging Strategy.” How to leverage the end of the business cycle without exposing our fund to permanent capital loss?

Alexas_Fotos / Pixabay

Objective:

  • Understand the current convergence between business cycle and the long term debt cycle.
  • Empathize the benefits of Tail Hedging as a means to shield from capital loss. We began implementing this strategy in Q4-2018 to protect the fund from significant market downturns, similar in sca...


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Biotech

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Illustration of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, showing lymphoblasts in blood. Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alba Rodriguez-Meira, University of Oxford and Adam Mead, University of Oxford

...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Feb 10, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

A good week for the bulls once again as a very overbought market essentially went sideways to help work off some of those near term extreme conditions.  The S&P 500 stalled exactly at the 200 day moving average after a frantic rally the past month and a half.  It was generally a quiet week with lowered volatility as the word “patience” continues to have the investor class in a happy daze.

In economic news, ISM Services fell from 58.0 in December to 56.7 last month, below economists’ expectations of a 57.4 reading. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in activity.

For the week the S&P 500 gained 0.1% and the NASDAQ 0.5%.  That is 7 up weeks in a row.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 … ...



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Digital Currencies

People don't trust blockchain systems - is regulation a way to help?

 

People don't trust blockchain systems – is regulation a way to help?

Using blockchain technology can feel like falling and hoping someone will catch you. Nicoleta Raftu/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Kevin Werbach, University of Pennsylvania

Blockchain technology isn’t as widely used as it could be, largely because blockchain users don’t trust each other, as research shows. Business lea...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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