Posts Tagged ‘Lucent’

Oh No… You Heard It Here First (Lucent Gastric Reflux)

Oh No… You Heard It Here First (Lucent Gastric Reflux)

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker

Cisco Chairman And CEO John Chambers Gives Keynote At RSA Conference

Oh please tell me this is BS:

NEW YORK (TheStreet) — When Cisco last took the stage in November, CEO John Chambers predicted an uplift in business. He didn’t mention at the time that the company would offer to lend a hand in the form of zero-percent financing.

Taking a page from the automakers’ playbook circa 2002, Cisco introduced three-year, interest-free financing for its small and mid-sized business customers last week. The cheap loans are sure to help juice sales to cash-strapped customers far and wide.

Uh, no.  That’s not the playbook of automakers circa 2002.

LucentIt is the playbook of Lucent circa 1997.

Need I remind anyone how that story ended?

Lucent "sold" a metric boatload of hardware on capital financing at essentially zero interest terms to Winstar Communications – the firm that bought my Internet company – along with many others.

Winstar (and others) ultimately defaulted, unable to make their business goals turn into actual long-term cash flow.

Lawsuits flew and ultimately Winstar folded, all but destroying Lucent in the process, as they were stuck with an unbelievable amount of financed hardware that was not only generating no cash flow but which had depreciated (as all computer and network equipment does) to an insane degree the moment it was put into service.

Lucent – one of the most-storied technological companies ever to exist in the United States, the spun-off parent of Bell Labs that had years ago invented the transistor and slung us into the digital age and which held a solid majority of all telephone switch business in the United States, was later essentially forced to merge with Alcatel to avoid bankruptcy.

This is Ponzi-style financing and John Chambers knows better, having survived the 2000 tech crash in no small part because he didn’t do the same thing that Lucent did and thus didn’t get hammered by the defaults when the bust came.

The market has paid exactly zero attention to this "contribution" to CISCO’s sales, and it won’t in the immediate future either.  You can count on it.  I’m willing to bet there will not be one mainstream analyst who will point this out tomorrow morning in a research report and…
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Dell Is Well-Capitalized?

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker

Dell Is Well-Capitalized?

Dell, computers, financingWhat’s this about?

July 14 (Bloomberg) — Dell Inc., after cutting spending, raising money in the debt market and temporarily suspending its share-buyback program, says it is reviewing alternative sources of capital as customers continue to curb technology purchases.

Wait a second – I thought these technology companies didn’t have any material amount of debt and were doing ok, even with a slower economy?

The world’s second-largest maker of personal computers has to fund some of the growth in its financial-services unit and will likely need to provide more capital to the business later in the year, Chief Financial Officer Brian Gladden said today. The unit provides financing to customers who buy Dell products and services.

Ooooooohhhhhh… as in "oh oh."

Lucent anyone?

Hmmm….. how’s the credit quality in that portfolio Michael?  Lates?  No-pays?  Charge-offs?

One nasty for a tech company – if you wind up foreclosing on a client with a lease or purchase deal, the "collateral" is lucky to fetch 50 cents on the dollar – even as little as six months to a year after delivery.  Beyond two years its generally scrap.

One has to wonder how much of DELL’s "growth" was really growth and how much of it was driven by financing – you know, levering up your customers by internally covering their debt, issuing cheap debt on your own balance sheet to fund your financing activities?

The health of such a strategy and its impact on you is entirely dependent on your credit underwriting.  If it bites (or is non-existent) then when the economy turns their "boom" becomes your "boom".

It will be interesting when DELL reports earnings – hopefully we’ll both get some color on this and the so-called "analysts" will grill the company on this point, as problems in the customer financing unit can literally sink you.

Think not? 

Talk to Lucent.

Oh wait – you can’t – they’re gone, folded into Alcatel which is itself trading around $2.

Disclosure: No position; if I’d seen this one coming I would have been short up to my eyeballs.

 

 


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Zero Hedge

"There's No Way Out": Johnson Slams "Undemocratic" Irish Backstop In Letter To European Council

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson as barely been in office a month, and he's already convinced some Britons that he's ready to take the UK out of the EU, with or without an interim trade deal to soften the blow.

On the other side of the Atlantic, President Trump has pledged to cobble together a trade deal to help bolster Johnson's popularity should he need to call for an early general election to try and bolster his party's mandate (the Tories and their coalition control the Commons by one measly vote).  This past week, Johnson has generated headlin...



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Phil's Favorites

Aramco Asks Banks To Submit Proposals For Role In Mega IPO (Again)

Courtesy of Julianne Geiger, OilPrice.com

The Aramco IPO is one step closer to reality, with Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company seeking proposals from banks who wish to fulfill various roles in the much-anticipated IPO, Reuters sources said on Monday.

The requests for proposals were sent a few days ago, the sources said. Saudi Aramco declined to comment on the development.

Aramco’s official request that banks submit proposals is a positive development for the IPO, although even with banks handwringing with anticipation, the mega IPO has an uphill battle ahead.

Aramco’s Senior VP of Finance, Khalid al-Dabbagh, said last week that it w...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Watch Out Bears! Fed POMO Is Back!

Courtesy of Lee Adler

That’s right. The Fed is doing POMO again.  POMO means Permanent Open Market Operations. It’s a fancy way of saying that the Fed is buying Treasuries, pumping money into the financial markets.

Over the past 6 days, the Fed has bought $8.6 billion in T-bills and coupons. These are the first regular Fed POMO Treasury operations since the Fed ended outright QE in 2014.

Who is the Fed buying those Treasuries from?

The Primary Dealers. Who are the Primary Dealers?  I’ll let the New York Fed tell you:

Primary dealers are trading counterparties of the New York Fed in its implementation of monetary policy. They are also expected to make markets for the New York Fed on behalf of its official accountholders as needed, and to bid on a ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Steel About To Breakdown And Send Bearish Economic Message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the Steel Industry suggesting that a recession is nearing? In my humble opinion, the jury is still out on this one.

This chart from Marketsmith.com takes a look at the patterns of Steel ETF (SLX).

SLX has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of trading range (1). The persistent decline over the past year has it testing the bottom of this trading range at (2).

The weakness over the past year has it below long-term moving averages as its relative strength r...



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The Technical Traders

Fed Too Late To Prevent A Housing Market Crash?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Real Estate is one of the biggest purchases anyone will make in their lifetime.  It can account for 30x to 300x one’s annual income and take over 30 years to pay off.  After you’re done paying for your property, now you have to keep paying to maintain it and to support the property taxes to keep it.  What has happened to the US Real Estate market since the 2008-09 global credit market collapse and is the US Fed behind the curve?

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

One of the most common indicators used to measure national housing affordability and price trend is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  In this chart, we are displaying the Case-Shiller National Home ...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Tuesday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index for the latest week is schedule for release at 8:55 a.m. ET.
  • San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly is set to speak at 4:30 p.m. ET.
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles will speak in Salt Lake City, Utah at 6:00 p.m. ET.

Posted-In: Economic DataNews Economics ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin 2019 fractal with Gold 2013

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Funny how price action patterns repeat, double tops, head and shoulders. These are simply market fractals of supply and demand.

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Ref: US Crypto Holders Only Have a Few Days to Reply to the IRS 6173 Letter

Today's news from the US IRS has been blamed for the recent price slump, yet the bitcoin fractal like the gold fractal suggest the market players have set bitcoin up for a slump to $9000 USD long before the IRS news hit the wire.

Get the impression some market players missed out on the b...

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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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