Posts Tagged ‘LZB’

La-Z-Boy Options Active Ahead Of Earnings

Today’s tickers: LZB, DD & PRLB

LZB - La-Z-Boy, Inc. – Shares in furniture producer, La-Z-Boy, Inc., increased as much as 3.9% to $19.80 at the start of the session, the highest level since 2004, ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report after the closing bell today. Options volume is up ahead of the report, with roughly 400 contracts in play this afternoon versus average daily volume of around 80 contracts. Trading in La-Z-Boy call options is outpacing puts, with the call/put ratio up above 4.3 as of the time of this writing. Some traders appear to be positioning for shares in LZB to rally post-earnings, purchasing out-of-the-money call options expiring in June and July. Front month call buyers looked to the Jun $22.5 strike, purchasing around 50 lots at an average premium of $0.14 each, and the $25 strike calls, picking up 40 contracts at an average premium of $0.18 apiece. The Jun $20 strike calls attracted volume during Monday’s session, as well. Time and sales data suggests one trader likely purchased 100 of the $20 calls for a premium of $0.55 apiece yesterday morning. The bullish bet pays off at expiration as long as shares in LZB settle above the effective breakeven price of $20.55.

DD - E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. – Call options changing hands on DuPont in the early going on Tuesday suggest one trader is positioning for shares in the name to potentially rise to the highest level since 2000 during the next seven months. Shares in DuPont are up 0.20% on the session at $53.80 just before midday in New York. It looks like the strategist purchased a roughly 2,600-lot Jan 2014 $57.5/$62.5 call spread for an average net premium of $1.07 per contract. The bullish position starts making money if shares in DuPont rally 9.0% over the current price of $53.80 to exceed the average breakeven point at $58.57, with maximum potential profits of $3.93 per contract available on the spread should shares surge 16% to $62.50 by January…
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GDWheee Friday – Could be a Wild Ride!

Attention ladies and gentlemen:

The stock market will soon be leaving the station, please secure all personal items, pull down the safety bar (our Disaster Hedges) and keep all body parts inside ride at all times.  Well you know you can follow all of the safety instructions and STILL get smacked in the face with a black swan (like our friend Fabio, pictured here) which is why we elected to get back to cash ahead of this report.  The markets were just too insane this week and who the heck knows if Europe will still be a Union on Monday or what the GDP number is going to be (but I do think it's a miss). 

Since our biggest weekend fear is financial panic in Europe, our cash US dollars will become more valuable in a crisis and if the market drops, all the better as we can ride back in and do some bargain hunting.  If the market takes off on good GDP and Greece is "fixed" and Spain is "fixed" and Portugal and Ireland are not really a problem (especially for MS and JPM) and the CRIMINAL charges against Goldman look beatable and and the Financial Reform Bill doesn't disrupt the market with a disorderly breakup of the big banks and the Bank of International Settlements Report continues to be ignored and the run on the Greek banks doesn't spread to other STUPID counties – well, then we can BUYBUYBUY because, if all this doesn't matter, then it's very likely that the entire planet Earth could explode but Wall Street will keep ticking higher.

Yep, I can't wait to ride this baby mindlessly higher!  After all, what can go wrong?  BIDU is ONLY $710 a share, BLK is $190, CMP is $76, GOLD is $84, BUCY is $65, FAST is $56, MMM is $90, FOSL $40, F $13.50, DECK $149, SHOO $55, TPX $35, LZB $14, CTB $22, NOG $16, CEO $176, FTI $75, CLB $150, CIB $46, BBD $19, TD $75, BCA $45, BAP $87, ITUB $22, EDU $94, WYNN $93, FFIV $72, CY $14, CREE $77, UPS $70, UNP $78… 

These were stocks I was looking at last week, when I told members I thought it was easier to construct a Sell List than our usual…
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$100,000 Virtual Portfolio Update – Week 5

Well this has been annoying

After 30 days of trading our current virtual portfolio value is just $100,454.39 as we took quite a setback when we sold naked calls ahead of the move up.  Fortunately, we didn't lose our cool and rode it out.  In fact, we only made one trade in the past two weeks so there hasn't been much to report and there still isn't but the end of our first month is a good time for an update.  Of course, we do have a lot of outstanding October Premium to collect so the next two weeks are when we make our real money

We still have $92,315 in cash so plenty of buying power should we choose to deploy it but we are sticking with our plan of scaling into the postions we have, which means we're letting them run out through October 16th expirations and we'll see if we finally get the bargains we've been waiting for to set up our longer term bull plays.  For now, in this VERY conservative, low-touch virtual portfolio, we've been following Warren Buffett's Investing Rule #1:  Don't lose money!

Description Price Paid Last Price Qty Market Value Margin Req. Profit Loss %
AIG CALL 40 Oct 09 $6.30 $5.50 -1 $550.00 $1,196.20 $80.00 12.70%
On target with AIG at $43.40, this is typical of our outstanding sales with the VIX so high – we just have to wait.
AMZN CALL 90 Oct 09 $3.60 $2.80 -10 $2,800.00 $16,127.50 $800.00 22.22%
We wouldn't do this play if we needed the margin but a nice $2,800 to collect if AMZN stays below $90
BAC CALL 10 Jan 11 $8.60


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Testing Tuesday Morning – S&P 1,010 Edition

So far so good.

As I said in yesterday's post (and the weekend wrap-up), we were well-positioned for the drop – It's just a quesiton of finding a bottom now.  It didn't take very long as we found it at 9:46 when I sent out an Alert to Members saying: "Once again it’s a good time to sell the DIA $95 puts at $2 as the volume on this sell-off is not at all exciting so far.  As long as the Dow holds 9,450 (now 9,475) it’s a good play."  We had a couple of spikes below but, on the whole, 9,450 held like a champ and those puts hit our 20% target by the day's end (some of our quicker traders even had a chance to double dip).  That level and 1,010 on the S&P will be our critical tests today as well

As you can see from David Fry's SPY chart, that 1,010 line on the S&P represents the bottom of the range we broke out of on Aug 21st after failing it several times earlier in the month so it either holds this week or last week begins to look like noting more than a blow-off top at the tip of a downturn. 

We followed through with our DIS play but we're still hoping to do better on the call sale to complete our buy/write.  We took an early stab at shorting OIH but chickened out by the end of the day and we took advantage of a nice drops in ITMN, LZB (hedged) and CIM (hedged) while adding protective plays by going long in TZA (hedged) so it was a busier day than we planned.  We also picked up some more fills for our $100K Virtual Portfolio, as per our weekend plans and that virtual portfolio jumped $500 on the day, which is nice for a down day and indicates we are doing pretty well on that balance thing…

At 1:03 I sent out an Alert to Members saying: "Should be stick time after a blow out bottom - I still like those DIA $95 puts sold naked for $2+, looking for .25 to .50."  We got a false run at 2:30 then a drop down to a blow-out spike at 3:30 and then, of course, the daily stick, that took up right back to
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$100,000 Virtual Portfolio Update – Week 1

It's been a crazy first week but we're up a little already.

So far, only 16 of the 26 contracts we wanted have been filled and we've had some difficulty due to Wall Street Survivor not allowing us to enter spreads, which led us to getting fairly random fills.  Also, I apologize for the lack of access but I've been assured those issues will be resolved next week.  For that reason, I have not deviated from the Alert I sent out on Monday and all those unfilled bids remain in place but let's use this time to review where we are now as far as what's open and what's left to fill.

As we've collected plenty of money already we are achieving our primary goal so this is not about making drastic changes but let's analyse each play and see what has been filled and what needs to be filled next and whether or not we feel we can hit that target next week (action items are highlighted in red):

AIG:  2011 $30 calls filled at $13.45 (now $26.50), 2011 $30 puts filled at $9.05 (now $9) and Sept $33 calls sold for $4.70 (now $17.95). 

It stinks that we couldn't fill the $33 puts as that would have given us a big gain. In chat we discussed taking them out anyway and leaving the long calls as is, expecting a pullback.  No matter what happens, we have an expectation of rolling this caller to October puts and calls and those strikes pay more than $20 so this is a non-issue at the moment and we successfully collected $470.

We do want to roll the 2011 $30 put to the 2011 $55 puts, now $24.88 for $16.  That puts us into a guaranteed $25 spread for $16, a good trade-off

BAC: 5 Sept $17 puts were sold for .51 (now .39) and 5 2011 $20 puts were bought for $5.45 (now $5.55).

We didn't fill the call side of this spread, which was buying 5 2011 $10 calls for $8.60 (now $9.10) and selling 5 Sept $17 calls for $1.60 (now $1.38).  We're looking for the banks to sell off but, if we do trigger the short sale on the upside, we will need to take the cover leap.  Collected $255.


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Zero Hedge

European Carmakers Face Perfect Storm

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

European carmakers are facing what could turn out to be a major crisis cooked up by EU regulators, and it’s all about EVs and emissions. The former are supposed to help solve the problem with the latter, but the likelihood of success is uncertain because there are literally millions of variables: car buyers.

The EU has been enforcing emission ...



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Phil's Favorites

Black Hole Investing

 

Black Hole Investing

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline 

Scientists say the rules change in a cosmic “black hole” at what astrophysicists call the event horizon. How do they know that? Not by observation, since what happens in there is, by definition, un-seeable. They infer it from the surroundings, which say that the mathematics of the universe as we understand them change at the event horizon.

Or maybe not. One theory says we are all inside a black hole right now. That could possibly explain a few things about central bank policy. ...



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The Technical Traders

Crude Oil Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Crude Oil has been trading in a fairly narrow range since mid-August – between $52 and $57 ppb.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system suggested the downside price move in late July/early August was expected and the current support aligns very well with our ADL predictions of higher price rotation throughout most of September/October.  Please take a minute to review the original research post below :

July 10, 2019: ...



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Insider Scoop

The Street Reacts To Kroger's Q2 With Mixed Takeaways

Courtesy of Benzinga

Kroger Co (NYSE: KR) reported second-quarter results that came in better than expected. The earnings beat may have been overshadowed by management's decision to remove its prior guidance of $400 million in incremental EBIT by fiscal 2021.

Q2 A Mix Of Positives And Negativ...

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Chart School

Dow to 38,000 by 2022

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

President Trump said the Dow would be 10,000 points higher if it was not for the FED. In truth if the Dow breaks to new all time highs the next stop is 38,000 and he may be proven correct. Is there an election on? 

Of course who knows? But lets continue. 

The fundamentals behind this may be:

  • A good deal with China.
  • The FED turning on easy money with further rate cuts (very strange with a market near all time highs). FOMC Sept 17th well tell us more.
  • The above turbo charging stock buy backs.
  • Off shore money running out of foreign equity markets in to US markets (see note1).

Note1: Of course this has happened before, one particular time was just before O...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bond Yields Due For Rally After Declining More Than 1987 Stock Crash

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – 2, 5, 10, 30 Year Durations

The past year has seen treasury bond yields decline sharply, yet in an orderly fashion.

This has spurred recession concerns for much of 2019. Needless to say, it’s a confusing time for investors.

In today’s chart of the day, we look at a longer-term view of the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year treasury bond yields.

Short to long term bond yields are all testing 7 to 10-year support levels as momentum is at the lowest levels in a decade.

A yield rally is likely due across the board after a recent decline that was bigger than the stock crash in 1987!

If yields fail to ral...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Nonfarm Payrolls Not Seasonally Adjusted Tell the Real Story - Unspinning Wall Street™

Courtesy of Lee Adler

Not seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, that is, the actual numbers, give us a truer picture of the jobs market than the seasonally adjusted garbage that Wall Street spews.

Friday’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls jobs headline numbers disappointed investors with slower than expected growth. But was it really that bad?

Here’s How The Street Spun It – Wall Street Journal Modest August Job Growth Shows Economy Expanding, but Slowly

Employers added 130,000 nonfarm jobs, jobless rate held steady at 3.7%

U.S. employment grew only modestly in August, suggesting that a global economic slowdown isn’t driving the U.S. into recession but has dente...



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Digital Currencies

China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.

Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo. 

One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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