Posts Tagged ‘macroeconomic imbalances’

G20 Thinking: “In The Medium Run We Are All Retired”

In other words, don’t expect much. – Ilene

G20 Thinking: “In The Medium Run We Are All Retired”

Courtesy of Simon Johnson at The Baseline Scenario

It looks like the G20 on Friday will emphasize its new “framework” for curing macroeconomic imbalances, rather than any substantive measures to regulate banks, derivatives, or any other primary cause of the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

This is appealing to the G20 leaders because their call to “rebalance” global growth will involve no immediate action and no changes in policy – other than in the “medium run” (watch for this phrase in the communiqué).

When exactly is the medium run?

That’s an easy one: it’s always just around the corner.  Not today, of course; that would be short run.  And not in 20 years; that’s the long run.

The medium run is perhaps in 3 years or perhaps in 5 years.  It feels close enough not to be meaningless at the press conference, but it’s not close enough to be meaningful.

And – here’s the key – whatever you agree on for the medium-term, you know that the world will change, quite dramatically, 2 or 3 times before you get there.  At that point you can say, quite reasonably: But the conditions today are quite different from what they were when we made this medium-term commitment, so we really need to rethink it.

Of course, having the IMF report back every year on progress towards these medium-term goals is equally pointless.  This is what the IMF has been doing since 2006 and what it was preparing diligently to do just as the global crisis broke out.

Expectations for the G20 summit are low.  But unless and until the leaders take any steps to address our pressing financial sector vulnerabilities, the summit is not worth its carbon footprint.

Remember what the financial experts said at the previous summit (April) and the one before that (November): we can’t fix the financial system in the height of the crisis.  True enough, although the opportunity to break the power of the largest players was squandered in both the US and Europe.

So, now the crisis is over – as the G20 heads of government will affirm – where are their efforts to fix the financial system?  Please don’t tell me, “that’s what we’re doing, in the


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Facebook needs regulation - here's why it should be done by algorithms

 

Facebook needs regulation – here's why it should be done by algorithms

Shutterstock

Courtesy of Emanuele Giovannetti, Anglia Ruskin University

Facebook has been likened to a “digital gangster” by a critical parliamentary report into disinformation and fake news. One witness in the 18-month inquiry into the way digital platforms have transformed the flow of information describes the current use of t...



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Zero Hedge

US Demanding China Keep Value Of Yuan Stable, Halt Devaluations

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In the latest sign that at least some progress might be made this week toward a US-China trade accord as the seventh round of talks gets underway in Washington, Bloomberg just reported that the US - in addition to its other demands - also been pressing China to "stabilize" the yuan, a move aimed to neutralize efforts by Beijing to devalue its currency to counter American tariffs.

According to sources close to the talks, the two sides are discussing how to codify language prohibiting currency manipulation in a memorandum of understanding that would form the ...



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ValueWalk

Current Quarterly Earnings Forecasts Accentuate The Negative

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In revising their forecasts of companies’ current quarterly earnings, analysts accentuate the negative, new research finds

3844328 / PixabayWidely available earnings forecasts not as informative as many think

It may be the most persistent criticism leveled against stock analysts – excessive optimism, what is widely perceived to be a tendency to be more upbeat about the companies they cover than the facts...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper About To Hurdle Important Breakout Level?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Doc Copper often times sends important messages, to the global economy, reflecting growth or lack thereof. An important price test is currently in play for Ole Doc Copper!

The long-term trend for Copper remains up, as it has created a series of higher lows for the past 18-years along line (1). Over the past few months, Copper could be creating a double bottom just above this long-term rising support line at (2).

The small rally of late has Doc Copper testing the top of its 6-month trading range at (3).

Can ole Doc Copper hurdle this important breakout leve...



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Insider Scoop

The Street's Early Reaction To Walmart's Q4 Beat

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related WMT Mid-Morning Market Update: Markets Edge Higher; Walmart Tops Q4 Expectations Walmart Brings Bright Spot T...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Surging: Bitcoin, Ethereum Hit One-Month Highs As Institutions Dip Toes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Cryptocurrencies are surging while the US equity markets take the day off. Ethereum is up over 18% from Friday's 'close' and the rest of the crypto space is a sea of green. While no immediate catalyst (headline or technical level) is clear, increasing chatter over institutional investors dipping their toes in the space have prompted an extension of the positive trend.

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Ethereum is leading the charge follow...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Feb 17, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

The “V” shape bounce continues in unrelenting fashion as bulls are stampeding bears in 2019!  All due to a little “patience” from the Federal Reserve.  It is really quite breathtaking but we have seen it repeatedly the past decade as the Federal Reserve pours gas on the market.  Hopes for a deal with China also spurred the action upward.  Rallies (both with gap ups) on Tuesday and Friday provided the juice this week.   The S&P 500 is back over its 200 day moving average after being below for 46 days – it’s longest period of time below that level since March 2016.

Mat Klody, chief investment officer at Keebeck Wealth Management, told MarketWatch that the major benchmarks’ steady march higher since the beginning of the year is being driven &#x...



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Biotech

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Illustration of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, showing lymphoblasts in blood. Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alba Rodriguez-Meira, University of Oxford and Adam Mead, University of Oxford

...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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