Posts Tagged ‘Mad Hedge Fund Trader’

Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Market Comments

Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Market Comments
October 6, 2009

Featured Trades: (OBAMA), (FSLR), (SOLAR) 

1) If you wonder where I am on the evening of Thursday, October 15, I will be having dinner with Barrack Obama, President of the United States. I received the invitation to San Francisco’s exclusive Saint Francis Hotel to meet the Commander-in-Chief with 250 of the city’s “A-listers,” which I have reproduced below. Of course $30,400 for two is a bargain to sit down with the most powerful man in the world, but that doesn’t include another $10,000 for my date’s dress. I have been asked to arrive two hours early to provide for security screening. With my opinions plastered all over the Internet, that will no doubt involve a full proctologic exam. But hey, anything for some overcooked chicken.  Times are hard, and we all have to do our bit to stimulate the economy. Maybe I should go for a table of ten for only $150,000? Until then I shall be boning up on subjects I know are dear to the President’s heart to make chit chat, like playoffs for college football, or how he got stiffed in his Chicago Olympic bid. He could have made such a killing renting out his Hyde Park house that I visited last December (click here for story ), which would have been walking distance from many of the events! How much do you think I should  leave for a tip?
 

     Obama2.jpg picture by madhedge    
 
 
Obama5.jpg picture by madhedge 
 
 
2) Solar is about to become a big part of our lives, as it careens toward long sought profitability, and it will suit you to learn more about it. To get a good introduction to the industry, both through some good engineering statistics and some great pictures, then check out the September edition of National Geographic magazine by clicking here. Total world electricity demand today is 16 terawatts (16,000 megawatts), and that is expected to grow to 20 terawatts by 2020. Solar comes in two flavors, thermal and photovoltaic (PV). Thermal is the old dinosaur technology, with thousands of convex mirrors arrayed to heat piped oil, which is then used to power a conventional steam power plan, converting about 24% of the sun’s energy into electricity. The future is with photovoltaic


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Mad Hedge’s Special Gold and Silver Issue

Global Market Comments
October 7, 2009

SPECIAL GOLD AND SILVER ISSUE

Featured Trades: (GOLD), (ABX), (GLD), (KGC), (JAG), (RGLD), (SLV)

1) Of course you knew it was going to happen like this. After churning around just below the old high, and sucking in as many profit takers and short sellers as possible, gold blasted through to a new high for the year of $1,038. Never mind that the triggering event is complete balderdash, a story in Britain’s Independent  newspaper asserting that the Middle East is holding secret global talks to price crude in the yellow metal or other currencies (click here ). It didn’t hurt that Australia cut its interest rates by 0.25%, the first G-20 country to do so. There probably isn’t enough gold in the world to finance more than a few weeks of global oil production. Total gold holdings would only fill two Olympic sized swimming pools. But never let the truth get in the way of a good trade. The confirming moves couldn’t be more ubiquitous, with the Canadian, New Zealand, and Australian dollars all up big, commodities strong, and silver also going ballistic.

Regular readers will all recognize these as old friends of mine, core longs that I have been strongly recommending since the beginning of the year. I have been trying to get investors into gold since it was at $800. If you aren’t in gold by now, I can only tear my own clothes and flagellate myself for my abject failure to convince you of  gold’s merits. US government debt is exploding, and with foreigners holding a large part of our paper, the only way to get out of this mess is to devalue the dollar. It’s like Obama invited China’s president Hu Jintao to dinner at an expensive Upper East Side restaurant, fakes a sudden case of food poisoning, leaving him with a big fat bill. Next stop $1,200, then $1,500, then the old inflation adjusted high of $2,400. If you want me to help you get set up to trade futures in any of this stuff, please email me at madhedgefundtrader@yahoo.com. If you want to know where to buy physical gold and silver in size, or coins with the tightest spreads over spot, check with the experts at http://www.millenniummetals.net by clicking here.


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Mad Hedge’s Global Market Comments

Global Market Comments
Courtesy of Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 5, 2009

SPECIAL “I TOLD YOU SO” ISSUE

Featured Trades: (TBT), (BRAZIL), (EWZ)

1) For the last six months there has been a great big whopping contradiction in the markets. The stock market has been discounting a return to the “Roaring Twenties,” while the bond market has been anticipating another “Great Depression.” After yesterday’s publication of the Labor Department’s September nonfarm payroll number showing the loss of another 263,000 jobs, it looks like the bond market now has the upper hand. This takes the unemployment rate up 0.1% to 9.8%, and total job losses for this recession to 7 million. The really disturbing aspect of this number is that 57,000 teachers were fired, as states chop budgets to the bone. This is really eating our seed corn by the bushel full. Of course, I have been banging pots and pans, setting off distress flares, and yanking the fire alarm, trying to alert readers that this kind of disappointment was coming (click here for “Risk Reversals Can Be Such a Bitch” and here  for “Stocks Offer No Value”). Shares have dropped 5% from last week’s peak, as the bond market soared, the ten year yield reaching nosebleed territory of 3.05%. The dollar maintained its flight to safety status, which to me is one of the great ironies of all time. It’s like that reprobate, alcoholic uncle with the bad teeth, who, when your car breaks down in the middle of a downpour in a bad neighborhood, will always let you crash on his sofa. Let’s call him your Uncle Sam. You have to hand it to PIMCO’s inveterate card counter, Bill Gross, who says this is all about transitioning to a “new” normal of 1%-2% real GDP growth. That’s why he was loading the boat with bond yields at 4%, a “ballsey” move at the time, which now smells like roses. I guess that’s why they call him the “Bond King.”
 

    jobless1-4.jpg picture by madhedge     
 
 
2) In light of the disappointing September nonfarm payroll figures reported yesterday, I’m afraid that my recommendation to buy the Proshares Ultra Short Treasury Trust (TBT), a bet that US Treasury bonds are going down, is starting to look a little green around the gills. I


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Interview With A Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge is quite a fascinating character who’s had a very exciting career in finances and more. He writes daily newsletter entries on market action, stocks and trends in the economy, and I highly recommend taking a moment to peruse his site, Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. - Ilene

Interview With A Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Introduction

mad hatterMad Hedge Fund Trader began his career in finance by moving to Japan and working at Dai Nana Securities as a research analyst in 1974. In 1976 he was named the Tokyo correspondent for The Economist magazine and the Financial Times, which then shared an office. He traveled the world interviewing famous people, such as Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. In 1982, he was named the US editor of Euromoney magazine, and in 1983 he built a new division in international equities for Morgan Stanley. After moving to London in 1985, Mad Hedge supervised sales and trading in Japanese equity derivatives. In 1989, he became a director of the Swiss Bank Corp, responsible for Japanese equity derivatives. A year later, he set up an international hedge fund which he sold in 1999. 

I haven’t even covered all of Mad Hedge’s adventures, such as his latent movie star career (as an extra in the 1979 epic war film, Apocalypse Now), and who knows what else. But now, missing the adrenaline-surging excitement of active trading, Mad Hedge has returned to the hedge fund business, set up an educational website, and is busy keeping up with the demands of newsletter writing.. So let’s begin our interview with Mad Hedge by exploring his current thoughts on the markets.  

Interview

Ilene: Hi Mad Hedge. You’ve had a fascinating career having little to do with your major in biochemistry. A brief review of your newsletter shows that your recommendations early in 2009 have appreciated by an average of around 400%. You’ve been writing your daily market thoughts and investment strategies at your website – www.madhedgefundtrader.com – which it’s terrific, by the way. What are your goals with this site?

Mad Hedge: This whole thing started out as a letter to investors in my hedge fund, to tell them my thinking behind my positions. Then I thought, why not post this on the web and see what happens? Six months later it is now going out to 50,000 readers a day, mostly to portfolio managers, financial advisors, and traders. The growth has been explosive.

Ilene:
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Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Market Comments

Here’s MadHedge’s diary entry from yesterday – everything you want from technology, to cars, to baseball. But I’m not quite sure if MadHedge is shorting BofA or Cubs supporters. – Ilene

Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Market Comments

September 29, 2009

Courtesy of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Featured Trades: (RADA), (BAC), (SCHW), (V), (CVX)
 
1) When a retired Israeli Air Force general calls me up in the middle of the night and tells me there’s a company I should look into, I sit up and take notice. Privately owned Spider Technologies Security Ltd (click here for their website) has achieved a quantum leap forward in seismic based detection technology. It has pioneered a set of algorithms, code named “Tarantula,” that can analyze ground vibrations to create virtual fences along national borders, or around military bases and high value targets, like energy infrastructure. A portable version can be used by a squad of soldiers on the move to detect approaching enemies at night, on or under the ground, in all weather, and can tell the difference between a car, a man, or a mouse. Now this is where the story get’s interesting.  Spidertech has just inked a joint marketing and production deal with NASDAQ listed RADA Electronic Industries (RADA), an established supplier of hardware and software for unmanned aerial vehicles  (click here for their website at http://www.rada.com/). This gives Spidertech access to Rada’s rolodex of a who’s who in the international arms bazaar, and catapult the technology into the global limelight. Experts in the field tell me the potential market is in the billions. Of course the big fish is the US military, and the technology is already being field tested by the US Navy for Homeland Security. If you want to check out the details of this fascinating technology, go to the international arms publication Defense News by clicking here at http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4296898&c=FEA&s=TEC  . In the meantime, check out RADA’s stock, which has drifted up from 60 cents to $3 since March. A few key orders and it could be off to the races. Israel has long blended advanced American technologies with its own to create better and cheaper weapons, which are then sold to emerging markets. The difficulty has always been to find a tradable instrument…
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Meet the Mad Hedge Fund Trader

I’m very happy to introduce the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is not all that mad (from what I can tell). He’s been on a spectacular journey through life, and is now returning to the fun and excitement of actively managing a hedge fund. Here’s MadHedge’s diary entry from yesterday.  Stay tuned for more. – Ilene

Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Market Comments

September 25, 2009

Courtesy of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Featured Trades: (SPX), (FCX), (FXI), (BYDFF), (BIDU), (X), (JNK), (HYG), (EEM), (EWY), (TBT), (UDN), (ULE), (VIX)
 
1) The one absolute, take it to the bank, bet the ranch fact you can count on right now is that there is no value in the stock market. We are at a lofty 20 X earnings, and historically, when the market sported such a rich valuation, a 7% drop ensued in the following year. But what is history, but the ravings of an angry, frustrated old trader? Maybe having seen the best bargains in a century only six months ago, I’m spoiled. I have always been a tightwad. I must be the only guy around who flies his own private plane to garage sales for the sheer love of the deal (where else can one find Dean Martin records in decent playable condition for 25 cents each?). I just reviewed all of the stocks and sectors I liked at the beginning of the year, and a more picked over field you never saw. (Click here for my New Year list.)

The list of big winners is long: FCX, FXI, BYDFF, BIDU, X, gold, silver, copper, crude, oil services, junk bonds (JNK), (HYG), emerging markets (EEM), BRIC’s, Korea (EWY), with shorts in long dated Treasuries (TBT), volatility (VIX),  and the dollar (UDN), (ULE). Even tax exempt munis have been on a tear. Many of my core positions are up over 400%. When everything in your portfolio has done so well, it’s time to go hide. The problem is that my more loyal, even fanatical followers have taken out paid subscriptions for up to two years, so I must keep dancing. Hence, the recent increase in book reviews, political pieces, or just outright frivolous stories. What you do here is deep research and list building, so when the window opens you can jump…
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Politics

Trump's Coup Runneth Over

 

Trump's Coup Runneth Over

The president fancies himself a strongman. He's not.

Courtesy of Greg Olear at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

THERE ARE DAYS when a second Trump term—which would beget a third Trump term, followed by a few Ivanka Trump terms—feels inevitable. When the optimism of commentary like mine—“pseudo-sophisticated reassurance,”&...



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Phil's Favorites

Mapped: The Uneven Recovery of U.S. Small Businesses

 

Mapped: The Uneven Recovery of U.S. Small Businesses

Courtesy of Nick Routley, Visual Capitalist

 

Mapped: The Uneven Recovery of U.S. Small Businesses

Small businesses are the backbone of the U.S. economy, employing nearly half of the private sector workforce.

Unfortunately, lockdown and work-from-home measures brought about by COVID-19 have disproportionately affected small businesses – particularly in the leisure and hospitality sectors.

As metro-level data from ...



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ValueWalk

CNBC's Interview With Mary Callahan Erdoes, Joseph Tsai and John Vaske From The Delivering Alpha Conference

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

CNBC Exclusive: CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin interviews Mary Callahan Erdoes, Joseph Tsai and John Vaske From CNBC Institutional Investor Delivering Alpha Conference

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Realtime Transcription by www.RealtimeTranscription.com

Interview with Mary Callahan Erdoes, Joseph Tsai and John Vaske

ANDREW ROSS SORKIN: Tyler, thank you, my friend. Appreciate it very, very much. And it's a privilege to be with all thre...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Price Breakout Facing Critical New Support Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s been a heck of a year for Gold. But the year isn’t over yet and precious metals investors are hoping it will close the year out strong. That may depend on what happens in the coming days/weeks.

In today’s article, we feature a “weekly” chart of the Gold ETF (GLD), highlighting its strong up-trend channel and summer breakout to new all-time highs at (1), from Marketsmith.com.

Recently, I provided an update on why ...



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Zero Hedge

We've Reached "The Endpoint" - Monetary And Fiscal Policy Won't Help

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

Remember all those “green shoots?”

That was the ubiquitous phrase used by White House officials and TV talking heads in 2009 to describe how the U.S. economy was coming back to life after the 2008 global financial crisis.

The problem was we did not get green shoots; what we got was more like brown weeds.

The economy did recover, yes, but it was th...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Friday, 01 May 2020, 11:47:29 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: In 2008 the Central banks were newbies, now there locked and loaded .. its going to be a great show



Date Found: Saturday, 02 May 2020, 12:21:35 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: The Fed has done everything it poss...



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Digital Currencies

The Great Unbanking: How DeFi Is Completing The Job Bitcoin Started

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Paul De Havilland via CoinTelegraph.com,

While most of us will prefer to forget the horrors of 2020, DeFi may well prove to be the guarantee of a better, more liberated future...

...



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Biotech/COVID-19

How and when will we know that a COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective?

 

How and when will we know that a COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective?

How much longer must society wait for a vaccine? ANDRZEJ WOJCICKI/Getty Images

By William Petri, University of Virginia

With COVID-19 vaccines currently in the final phase of study, you’ve probably been wondering how the FDA will decide if a vaccine is safe and effective.

Based on the status of the Phase 3 trials currently underway, it i...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.