Posts Tagged ‘Mad Money’

Thrilling Thursday – Rejection at S&P 2,000

SPY 5 MINUTEOh my God, it's dip!  

The Futures are off a bit today and that's no surprise to those of us who have been paying attention to the volume, or lack thereof, as we made our final approach at the 2,000 line on the S&P 500.  Jim Cramer was literally foaming at the mouth this week as he and his CNBC co-conspirators herded the sheeple into the markets to participate in the tail end of the rally, where the suckers could hold the bags for their Corporate Masters.  

Why am I angry at Cramer today?  Because yesterday he committed the same crime he commtted in 2008 that cost so many people their life's savings – he told people not to sell their stocks on a pullback.  "Don't take profits" is the message for the viewing public.  But, I would ask, if people don't take profits – when will they ever get profits?  What kind of stupid message is that?  Well, it's the message that leaves you holding the bag while his hedge fund buddies head for the exits.  It's not much different than telling one group of people not to leave a burning building while you make sure all your friends are getting out safely.

"This is not just my opinion. I can prove it to you empirically. See, as I was preparing to write my book "Get Rich Carefully," I went over the previous five years of trades made by my charitable trust. And as I reviewed those trades I noticed that far too often, my good judgment would be overcome by excessive skepticism."

If the "proof" Jim is talking about is his Action Alerts Plus, then I'd say you really should think long and hard about following his advice here (via Kirk Lindstrom – who does compete with Cramer):

Jim Cramer's Action Alerts Plus Performance & Returns

I guess, sure, Jim legitimately should regret that he wasn't more bullish from 2008 to 2013, when the market popped 200% and his trust gained about 100% but don't you think the lesson Cramer should be taking from that experience is to CUT YOUR LOSSES, not
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Paul Farrell Explains Why The Fed-Wall Street Complex Will Self Destruct By 2012

Paul Farrell Explains Why The Fed-Wall Street Complex Will Self Destruct By 2012

Courtesy of Zero Hedge 

Some rather scary predictions out of Paul Farrell today: "It’s inevitable: Wall Street banks control the Federal Reserve system, it’s their personal piggy bank. They’ve already done so much damage, yet have more control than ever.Warning: That’s a set-up. They will eventually destroy capitalism, democracy, and the dollar’s global reserve-currency status. They will self-destruct before 2035 … maybe as early as 2012 … most likely by 2020. Last week we cheered the Tea Party for starting the countdown to the Second American Revolution. Our timeline is crucial to understanding the historic implications of Taleb’s prediction that the Fed is dying, that it’s only a matter of time before a revolution triggers class warfare forcing America to dump capitalism, eliminate our corrupt system of lobbying, come up with a new workable form of government, and create a new economy without a banking system ruled by Wall Street." And just like in the Hangover, where the guy is funny because he’s fat, Farrell is scary cause he is spot on correct.

Handily, Farrell provides a projected timeline of events:

Stage 1: The Democrats just put the nail in their coffin confirming they’re wimps when they refused to force the GOP to filibuster Bush tax cuts for billionaires.

Stage 2: In the elections the GOP takes over the House, expanding its strategic war to destroy Obama with its policy of “complete gridlock” and “shutting down government.”

Stage 3: Post-election Obama goes lame-duck, buried in subpoenas and vetoes.

Stage 4: In 2012, the GOP wins back the White House and Senate. Health care returns to insurers. Free-market financial deregulation returns. Lobbyists intensify their anarchy.

Stage 5: Before the end of the second term of the new GOP president, Washington is totally corrupted by unlimited, anonymous donations from billionaires and lobbyists. Wall Street’s Happy Conspiracy triggers the third catastrophic meltdown of the 21st century that Robert Shiller of “Irrational Exuberance” fame predicts, resulting in defaults of dollar-denominated debt and the dollar’s demise as the world’s reserve currency.

Stage 6: The Second American Revolution explodes into a brutal full-scale class war with the middle class leading a widespread rebellion against the out-of-touch, out-of-control Happy Conspiracy sabotaging America from within.

Stage 7: The domestic class warfare is exaggerated as the Pentagon’s global warnings play out: That by 2020


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Cramer Changes Tune On Goldman, Says Charge Is Not “Frivolous” And Firm Will Have To Settle Or Pay $2-3 Billion Fine

Cramer Changes Tune On Goldman, Says Charge Is Not "Frivolous" And Firm Will Have To Settle Or Pay $2-3 Billion Fine

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Jim Cramer Interviews NASCAR Drivers

What a difference a day makes. First Cramer was firmly planted in the Steve Liesman camp, who in turn for the past week has been moonlighting as the semi-official Goldman PR manager, in "leaking" every piece of useless "absolving" information (a job only secondary in worthlessness to that of worst financial stock analyst ever Dick Bove who has been buying Goldman all the day down from $185), however now after actually doing some thinking, the troubled theStreet.com owner who himself is no stranger to SEC investigations, has diametrically changed his tune. In this morning’s edition of "Morning Joe" on MSNBC, Cramer said: "What makes this worse than most situations is that it’s entirely possible this young guy, who’s now holding the whole firm hostage, Fabrice Tourre – it’s entirely possible that he sold it fraudulently. If he did, then Goldman has no defense. So, what I would emphasize at this particular moment is that this guy is way too powerful. The hearings are going to go badly. Goldman knew they were going to have a Wells Notice, knew they were going to get prosecuted. They didn’t reveal it. It was totally material. Again they did that wrong.” But we thought that according to "GAMECHANGING" information which you yourself Jim broke, Goldman was ok: after all they lost "money on the deal", a conclusion so moronic it immediately led to derisive ridicule from fringe blog Zero Hedge. That said, we are pleased to bury the hatchet – after all even former Goldmanite and seasned CNBSer Jim now agrees that the vampire squid is in deep shit.

As Jeff Poor of Business and Media reports:

Cramer argued that Goldman would have better served by approaching the government hat in hand rather than taking an aggressive tack against the charges. As things are, however, he predicted serious consequences for the firm and its management.

“The main thing you have to understand is that Goldman has basically said, ‘Government, you’re just dead wrong,’ instead of saying, government, ‘We’re sorry, what do you need to do?’” Cramer explained. “In order to end this, if it’s a settlement, they will have to pay the largest fine in history and


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THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK

THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK

Jim CramerCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

  • The complacency in the market is now reaching a fever pitch.  It always amazes me that investors can be so bearish near the bottom and then be so incredibly bullish after the market has risen so substantially.  On January 28th I said the market was not forming a major market top and that the downside was “more likely a correction within the uptrend”.  At S&P 1,140 I went net short for just the second time in the last 12 months. With our H1 outlook largely playing out as expected I now find myself wondering if we are in a euphoric blow-off top and on the wrong side of the trade….
  • Mad Money started 5 years ago on CNBC.  I vividly remember seeing the show when it started because it began right around the same time when the great Louis Rukeyser got sick.  My first thought was: “there is something seriously wrong with the market if its participants are willing to listen to a man banging on buttons and acting like a lunatic.”  The power of Cramer over the years is undiminished and leaves me wondering exactly the same thing today.  Cramer is a good investor and a GREAT salesman, but you just have to wonder after 5 years – the market is flat over the same period – have any of his viewers actually come out on top after taxes and fees?  My guess is very few….Investing is not a joke.   It is not entertainment.  I am not sure why anyone thinks it is okay to make it seem that way.
  • While I continue to think the VIX is a sign of near-term complacency you just can’t help but wonder if investors are still too fearful in the long-term.  The majority of investors still don’t have an ounce of faith in the recovery and this is reflected in the historically high VIX.  In the past two recessions, the VIX did not reach its historical low of 10 until at least 3 years into the recovery.  Perhaps most important, the market rallied this entire time.

vix2 THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK 


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PROOF: Cramer Isn’t A Lousy Stockpicker!

Note: free trial to PSW Report/instant access to articles/no credit card – click here. – Ilene

PROOF: Cramer Isn’t A Lousy Stockpicker!

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at ClusterStock

cramer-bullhorns-tbi.jpgFinally, we have an answer.

After years to Jim Cramer bragging about what a great stockpicker he is and of choruses of Mad Money viewers grousing about the opposite, the issue has been settled.

Paul Bolster and Emery Trahan of Northeastern University have done an exaustive analysis of Cramer’s Mad Money stock picks from 2005 to 2007 (pre-crash).

The answer?

Cramer’s not an awful stockpicker!

Unfortunately, he’s not a particularly good one, either. 

In fact, once you adjust for the various style factors that explain most stock returns (market, small/large, value/growth, momentum), Cramer’s stockpicking is pretty much in line with the index.  In other words, he’s average.

Also, in contrast to one of Cramer’s refrains about the mediocrity of passive investment strategies like Jack Bogle’s, once you subtract the costs of trading and taxes (not to mention the incalculable cost of having to watch Cramer’s show every night), you’d have been better off in an index fund.

Individual investors have an incredible variety of sources for investment guidance.  These
include internet blogs, financial publications, books, newsletters and, of course, television
shows.  We examine a relatively new but widely popular source of investment advice,
buy and sell recommendations made by Jim Cramer on his popular nightly Mad Money
show on CNBC…  Overall, the results suggest that, while Cramer may be
entertaining and mesmerizing to many of his viewers, his aggregate or average stock
recommendations are neither extraordinarily good nor unusually bad.

The Details

Bolster and Emery’s study is embedded below.  Here are some of the interesting points.

  • On a gross basis, Cramer’s picks actually did quite well, especially relative to the S&P 500.  Cramer’s "portfolio" (as constructed by Bolster and Emery) returned 12.1% per year, versus 7.4% for the S&P, providing lots of fodder for those who say he "beats the market."  This performance was before trading costs and taxes, however.  And the comparison to the S&P also does not take into account the type of stocks Cramer likes to buy (generally, small cap, value, and momentum stocks, which, as a group, outperformed the S&P).


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    Zero Hedge

    Will The US Slap Sanctions On Nord Stream 2?

    Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

    Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

    There is a growing push in the U.S. Congress to slap sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

    The pipeline under construction would carry Russian natural gas to Germany, and has been a lightning rod of controversy both in Europe and across the Atlantic. Many governments and officials from Eastern Europe fear deeper dependence on Russia for gas supplies, a sentiment echoed by the U.S. government. Meanwhile, many in Western Europe are less concerned,...



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    Phil's Favorites

    US is already fighting a conflict with Iran - an economic war that is hurting the wrong people

     

    Embed from Getty Images

     

    US is already fighting a conflict with Iran – an economic war that is hurting the wrong people

    Courtesy of David Cortright, University of Notre Dame

    Many are worried about the risk of war with Iran after the Trump administration leaked discussions of a troop deployment in response to claimed threats to U.S. warships in the region.

    And in r...



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    Insider Scoop

    Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

    Courtesy of Benzinga.

    After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

    Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

    The Analyst

    Jefferies analyst ...



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    Kimble Charting Solutions

    DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

    Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

    Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

    This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

    It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

    After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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    Chart School

    Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

    Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

    Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


    Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

    This is a classic! ha!







    Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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    Digital Currencies

    Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

     

    Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

    The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

    Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

    The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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    Biotech

    DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

    Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

     

    DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

    A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

    Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

    ...



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    ValueWalk

    More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

    By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

    Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

    rawpixel / Pixabay

    Friends and Fellow Investors:

    For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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    Members' Corner

    Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

    Are you ready to retire?  

    For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

    Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

    Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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    Mapping The Market

    It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

    A good start from :

    It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

    Excerpt:

    The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

    This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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    OpTrader

    Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

    Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

     

    This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

    We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

    Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

    To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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    Promotions

    Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

     

     

    Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

    Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

    In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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