Posts Tagged ‘Mad Money’

Thrilling Thursday – Rejection at S&P 2,000

SPY 5 MINUTEOh my God, it's dip!  

The Futures are off a bit today and that's no surprise to those of us who have been paying attention to the volume, or lack thereof, as we made our final approach at the 2,000 line on the S&P 500.  Jim Cramer was literally foaming at the mouth this week as he and his CNBC co-conspirators herded the sheeple into the markets to participate in the tail end of the rally, where the suckers could hold the bags for their Corporate Masters.  

Why am I angry at Cramer today?  Because yesterday he committed the same crime he commtted in 2008 that cost so many people their life's savings – he told people not to sell their stocks on a pullback.  "Don't take profits" is the message for the viewing public.  But, I would ask, if people don't take profits – when will they ever get profits?  What kind of stupid message is that?  Well, it's the message that leaves you holding the bag while his hedge fund buddies head for the exits.  It's not much different than telling one group of people not to leave a burning building while you make sure all your friends are getting out safely.

"This is not just my opinion. I can prove it to you empirically. See, as I was preparing to write my book "Get Rich Carefully," I went over the previous five years of trades made by my charitable trust. And as I reviewed those trades I noticed that far too often, my good judgment would be overcome by excessive skepticism."

If the "proof" Jim is talking about is his Action Alerts Plus, then I'd say you really should think long and hard about following his advice here (via Kirk Lindstrom – who does compete with Cramer):

Jim Cramer's Action Alerts Plus Performance & Returns

I guess, sure, Jim legitimately should regret that he wasn't more bullish from 2008 to 2013, when the market popped 200% and his trust gained about 100% but don't you think the lesson Cramer should be taking from that experience is to CUT YOUR LOSSES, not
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Paul Farrell Explains Why The Fed-Wall Street Complex Will Self Destruct By 2012

Paul Farrell Explains Why The Fed-Wall Street Complex Will Self Destruct By 2012

Courtesy of Zero Hedge 

Some rather scary predictions out of Paul Farrell today: "It’s inevitable: Wall Street banks control the Federal Reserve system, it’s their personal piggy bank. They’ve already done so much damage, yet have more control than ever.Warning: That’s a set-up. They will eventually destroy capitalism, democracy, and the dollar’s global reserve-currency status. They will self-destruct before 2035 … maybe as early as 2012 … most likely by 2020. Last week we cheered the Tea Party for starting the countdown to the Second American Revolution. Our timeline is crucial to understanding the historic implications of Taleb’s prediction that the Fed is dying, that it’s only a matter of time before a revolution triggers class warfare forcing America to dump capitalism, eliminate our corrupt system of lobbying, come up with a new workable form of government, and create a new economy without a banking system ruled by Wall Street." And just like in the Hangover, where the guy is funny because he’s fat, Farrell is scary cause he is spot on correct.

Handily, Farrell provides a projected timeline of events:

Stage 1: The Democrats just put the nail in their coffin confirming they’re wimps when they refused to force the GOP to filibuster Bush tax cuts for billionaires.

Stage 2: In the elections the GOP takes over the House, expanding its strategic war to destroy Obama with its policy of “complete gridlock” and “shutting down government.”

Stage 3: Post-election Obama goes lame-duck, buried in subpoenas and vetoes.

Stage 4: In 2012, the GOP wins back the White House and Senate. Health care returns to insurers. Free-market financial deregulation returns. Lobbyists intensify their anarchy.

Stage 5: Before the end of the second term of the new GOP president, Washington is totally corrupted by unlimited, anonymous donations from billionaires and lobbyists. Wall Street’s Happy Conspiracy triggers the third catastrophic meltdown of the 21st century that Robert Shiller of “Irrational Exuberance” fame predicts, resulting in defaults of dollar-denominated debt and the dollar’s demise as the world’s reserve currency.

Stage 6: The Second American Revolution explodes into a brutal full-scale class war with the middle class leading a widespread rebellion against the out-of-touch, out-of-control Happy Conspiracy sabotaging America from within.

Stage 7: The domestic class warfare is exaggerated as the Pentagon’s global warnings play out: That by 2020


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Cramer Changes Tune On Goldman, Says Charge Is Not “Frivolous” And Firm Will Have To Settle Or Pay $2-3 Billion Fine

Cramer Changes Tune On Goldman, Says Charge Is Not "Frivolous" And Firm Will Have To Settle Or Pay $2-3 Billion Fine

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Jim Cramer Interviews NASCAR Drivers

What a difference a day makes. First Cramer was firmly planted in the Steve Liesman camp, who in turn for the past week has been moonlighting as the semi-official Goldman PR manager, in "leaking" every piece of useless "absolving" information (a job only secondary in worthlessness to that of worst financial stock analyst ever Dick Bove who has been buying Goldman all the day down from $185), however now after actually doing some thinking, the troubled theStreet.com owner who himself is no stranger to SEC investigations, has diametrically changed his tune. In this morning’s edition of "Morning Joe" on MSNBC, Cramer said: "What makes this worse than most situations is that it’s entirely possible this young guy, who’s now holding the whole firm hostage, Fabrice Tourre – it’s entirely possible that he sold it fraudulently. If he did, then Goldman has no defense. So, what I would emphasize at this particular moment is that this guy is way too powerful. The hearings are going to go badly. Goldman knew they were going to have a Wells Notice, knew they were going to get prosecuted. They didn’t reveal it. It was totally material. Again they did that wrong.” But we thought that according to "GAMECHANGING" information which you yourself Jim broke, Goldman was ok: after all they lost "money on the deal", a conclusion so moronic it immediately led to derisive ridicule from fringe blog Zero Hedge. That said, we are pleased to bury the hatchet – after all even former Goldmanite and seasned CNBSer Jim now agrees that the vampire squid is in deep shit.

As Jeff Poor of Business and Media reports:

Cramer argued that Goldman would have better served by approaching the government hat in hand rather than taking an aggressive tack against the charges. As things are, however, he predicted serious consequences for the firm and its management.

“The main thing you have to understand is that Goldman has basically said, ‘Government, you’re just dead wrong,’ instead of saying, government, ‘We’re sorry, what do you need to do?’” Cramer explained. “In order to end this, if it’s a settlement, they will have to pay the largest fine in history and


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THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK

THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK

Jim CramerCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

  • The complacency in the market is now reaching a fever pitch.  It always amazes me that investors can be so bearish near the bottom and then be so incredibly bullish after the market has risen so substantially.  On January 28th I said the market was not forming a major market top and that the downside was “more likely a correction within the uptrend”.  At S&P 1,140 I went net short for just the second time in the last 12 months. With our H1 outlook largely playing out as expected I now find myself wondering if we are in a euphoric blow-off top and on the wrong side of the trade….
  • Mad Money started 5 years ago on CNBC.  I vividly remember seeing the show when it started because it began right around the same time when the great Louis Rukeyser got sick.  My first thought was: “there is something seriously wrong with the market if its participants are willing to listen to a man banging on buttons and acting like a lunatic.”  The power of Cramer over the years is undiminished and leaves me wondering exactly the same thing today.  Cramer is a good investor and a GREAT salesman, but you just have to wonder after 5 years – the market is flat over the same period – have any of his viewers actually come out on top after taxes and fees?  My guess is very few….Investing is not a joke.   It is not entertainment.  I am not sure why anyone thinks it is okay to make it seem that way.
  • While I continue to think the VIX is a sign of near-term complacency you just can’t help but wonder if investors are still too fearful in the long-term.  The majority of investors still don’t have an ounce of faith in the recovery and this is reflected in the historically high VIX.  In the past two recessions, the VIX did not reach its historical low of 10 until at least 3 years into the recovery.  Perhaps most important, the market rallied this entire time.

vix2 THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK 


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PROOF: Cramer Isn’t A Lousy Stockpicker!

Note: free trial to PSW Report/instant access to articles/no credit card – click here. – Ilene

PROOF: Cramer Isn’t A Lousy Stockpicker!

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at ClusterStock

cramer-bullhorns-tbi.jpgFinally, we have an answer.

After years to Jim Cramer bragging about what a great stockpicker he is and of choruses of Mad Money viewers grousing about the opposite, the issue has been settled.

Paul Bolster and Emery Trahan of Northeastern University have done an exaustive analysis of Cramer’s Mad Money stock picks from 2005 to 2007 (pre-crash).

The answer?

Cramer’s not an awful stockpicker!

Unfortunately, he’s not a particularly good one, either. 

In fact, once you adjust for the various style factors that explain most stock returns (market, small/large, value/growth, momentum), Cramer’s stockpicking is pretty much in line with the index.  In other words, he’s average.

Also, in contrast to one of Cramer’s refrains about the mediocrity of passive investment strategies like Jack Bogle’s, once you subtract the costs of trading and taxes (not to mention the incalculable cost of having to watch Cramer’s show every night), you’d have been better off in an index fund.

Individual investors have an incredible variety of sources for investment guidance.  These
include internet blogs, financial publications, books, newsletters and, of course, television
shows.  We examine a relatively new but widely popular source of investment advice,
buy and sell recommendations made by Jim Cramer on his popular nightly Mad Money
show on CNBC…  Overall, the results suggest that, while Cramer may be
entertaining and mesmerizing to many of his viewers, his aggregate or average stock
recommendations are neither extraordinarily good nor unusually bad.

The Details

Bolster and Emery’s study is embedded below.  Here are some of the interesting points.

  • On a gross basis, Cramer’s picks actually did quite well, especially relative to the S&P 500.  Cramer’s "portfolio" (as constructed by Bolster and Emery) returned 12.1% per year, versus 7.4% for the S&P, providing lots of fodder for those who say he "beats the market."  This performance was before trading costs and taxes, however.  And the comparison to the S&P also does not take into account the type of stocks Cramer likes to buy (generally, small cap, value, and momentum stocks, which, as a group, outperformed the S&P).


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    Phil's Favorites

    How to make fragile global supply chains stronger and more sustainable

     

    How to make fragile global supply chains stronger and more sustainable

    Shipping containers are moved from the Fairview Cove Container Terminal In Halifax in May 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan

    Courtesy off Adel Guitouni, University of Victoria; Cynthia Waltho, University of Victoria, and Mohammadreza Nematollahi, University of Victoria

    ...

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    Digital Currencies

    Ethereum: the transformation that could see it overtake bitcoin

     

    Ethereum: the transformation that could see it overtake bitcoin

    The crypto wars are hotting up. Wit Olszewski

    Courtesy of Daniel Broby, University of Strathclyde

    The world’s second most valuable cryptocurrency, ether, has been touching all-time highs in price ahead of a major upgrade of its underlying platform, ethereum. Ether is currently worth in aggregate just shy of US$500 billion (£363 billion). That’s still slightly less than half that of the biggest cryptocurrency, bitcoin.

    ...

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    Zero Hedge

    Another Massive Short Squeeze Leads To Spectacular 5Y Auction

    Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

    Similar to yesterday's stellar 2Y auction, which many were worried would see a drop in demand only to be silenced by the burst in demand due to a furious scramble for physical paper on the back of a record front-end short (which we previewed earlier in the week), so a quick look at just how special the 5Y TSY had become ahead of today&...



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    Politics

    Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators - post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

     

    Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators – post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

    Nixon resigned after tapes he had fought making public incriminated him in the Watergate coverup. Bettmann/Getty

    Courtesy of Shannon Bow O'Brien, The University of Texas at Austin College of Liberal Arts

    The National Archives is the United States’ memory, a repository of artifacts that includes everything from half-fo...



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    Biotech/COVID-19

    An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on 'mix-and-match' vaccine booster shots

     

    An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on ‘mix-and-match’ vaccine booster shots

    Discuss with your doctor whether or not you need a booster – and if so, which vaccine will work best for you. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images

    Courtesy of Glenn J. Rapsinski, University of Pittsburgh Health Sciences

    Many Americans now have the green light to get a COVID-19 vaccine booster – and the flexibility to receive a different brand than the ori...



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    Chart School

    Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

    Courtesy of Read the Ticker

    Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

    The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

    Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

    Richard Wyckoff after years of...

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    Promotions

    Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

    TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

    Watch here:

    TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

    Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

     

     

    &n...



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    Kimble Charting Solutions

    Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

    Courtesy of Chris Kimble

    Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

    Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

    It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

    The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

    A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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    ValueWalk

    Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

    By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

    Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

    Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

    The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

    Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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    Mapping The Market

    Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

     

    Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

    Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

    The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

    On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

    With over 2...



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    The Technical Traders

    Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

    Courtesy of Technical Traders

    Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

    This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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    Lee's Free Thinking

    Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

     

    Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

    Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

    The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

    Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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    Insider Scoop

    Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

    Courtesy of Benzinga

    • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
    • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
    • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
    • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
    ...

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    Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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